Race consistency

Who laps most evenly in races and sprints. We remove each rider’s trend (tyre and fuel) and measure how far each lap strays from it. Races only, never practice.

How it’s calculated

For each rider and race or sprint (since 2018) in which they did not pit, their clean laps are taken excluding the first 2 and the last 2 (where the fight at the start and the easing off at the end happen), with a minimum of 7. Since lap times change over the race (the tyre wears, the tank empties), first the straight line that best follows that trend is drawn and then how far the laps deviate from it is measured: the scatter around the line, as a % of the typical lap time. The lower, the more consistent. To compare circuits and years this % is divided by the median of all riders in that race: an index below 1 means more consistent than the field, above 1 less. For the season the median of the index across all their races is taken, and the ranking only includes riders with at least 5 races. Bike-swap races (flag-to-flag) do not count; races restarted after a red flag do, with the part that counts.

Keep in mind. It only measures consistency, not speed: a rider can be very consistent and slow. Riders who went into the pits are left out. The whole-career figure is the median index across all their races since 2018 (full races and sprints separately), using the same measure; the site only shows riders with 20 races or more, because with few races the figure depends heavily on luck.

Race · 2021

The season

Consistency ranking: Race 2021

#	Rider	Bike	Races	Index (1 = field)	Usual range	Spread %
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	16	0.83	0.61–1.00	0.20%
2	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	7	0.84	0.71–1.19	0.24%
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	15	0.87	0.78–1.13	0.23%
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	15	0.88	0.76–1.00	0.23%
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	15	0.90	0.85–1.19	0.27%
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	16	0.90	0.73–1.01	0.26%
7	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	15	0.91	0.76–1.18	0.28%
8	Jack Miller	Ducati	14	0.93	0.84–0.99	0.26%
9	Brad Binder	KTM	16	0.94	0.81–1.08	0.26%
10	Alex Rins	Suzuki	14	0.98	0.81–1.20	0.24%
11	Luca Marini	Ducati	16	1.00	0.83–1.07	0.30%
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	12	1.00	0.74–1.18	0.27%
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	12	1.02	0.90–1.29	0.27%
14	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	15	1.03	0.92–1.11	0.28%
15	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	12	1.04	0.96–1.19	0.31%
16	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	5	1.05	0.78–3.40	0.29%
17	Marc Marquez	Honda	9	1.05	0.98–1.15	0.29%
18	Stefan Bradl	Honda	5	1.07	1.06–1.11	0.25%
19	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	11	1.08	1.00–1.16	0.28%
20	Jorge Martin	Ducati	11	1.09	0.85–1.24	0.30%
21	Pol Espargaro	Honda	13	1.12	0.95–1.18	0.31%
22	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	14	1.12	0.93–1.34	0.33%
23	Iker Lecuona	KTM	15	1.21	0.85–2.51	0.35%
24	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	14	1.23	1.10–1.52	0.33%
—	Daniel Pedrosa	KTM	1	0.89	0.89–0.89	0.25%
—	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	3	1.00	1.00–1.61	0.28%
—	Jake Dixon	Yamaha	1	1.07	1.07–1.07	0.30%
—	Michele Pirro	Ducati	3	1.21	1.21–4.85	0.44%
—	Tito Rabat	Ducati	1	1.62	1.62–1.62	0.38%
—	Garrett Gerloff	Yamaha	1	2.06	2.06–2.06	0.72%

Index: median of their races that year, each compared with the field median in that race (1 = like the field; 0.8 = 20% more consistent). Usual range: from their best to their worst races (quartiles). Spread: how far laps stray from their own trend, as % of lap time; it depends on the circuit. Ranked from 5 races. Excluding the first 2 and last 2 laps of each race, pit entries and anomalous laps.

GP by GP: most and least consistent (Race 2021)

GP	Most consistent	Least consistent	n
Qatar	Joan Mir 0.55 · +0.020 s/v	Iker Lecuona 3.65 · +0.009 s/v	20
Doha	Lorenzo Savadori 0.40 · +0.050 s/v	Takaaki Nakagami 1.94 · +0.058 s/v	22
Portimão	Franco Morbidelli 0.59 · −0.019 s/v	Miguel Oliveira 6.34 · −0.052 s/v	19
Jerez	Danilo Petrucci 0.48 · +0.020 s/v	Fabio Quartararo 2.64 · +0.198 s/v	22
Mugello	Brad Binder 0.52 · +0.024 s/v	Michele Pirro 4.85 · +0.146 s/v	19
Catalunya	Miguel Oliveira 0.44 · +0.036 s/v	Lorenzo Savadori 1.61 · +0.149 s/v	17
Sachsenring	Marc Marquez 0.55 · −0.006 s/v	Maverick Viñales 1.52 · +0.029 s/v	19
Assen	Maverick Viñales 0.47 · −0.027 s/v	Garrett Gerloff 2.06 · −0.003 s/v	21
Styria	Jack Miller 0.69 · −0.019 s/v	Maverick Viñales 6.94 · +0.129 s/v	21
Silverstone	Alex Rins 0.67 · +0.036 s/v	Takaaki Nakagami 1.57 · +0.098 s/v	19
Aragon	Francesco Bagnaia 0.44 · +0.031 s/v	Iker Lecuona 2.01 · +0.093 s/v	20
Misano	Danilo Petrucci 0.58 · −0.007 s/v	Andrea Dovizioso 5.16 · −0.032 s/v	23
Austin	Valentino Rossi 0.42 · −0.007 s/v	Iker Lecuona 2.97 · +0.001 s/v	19
Misano	Miguel Oliveira 0.48 · +0.010 s/v	Takaaki Nakagami 6.44 · +0.017 s/v	18
Portimão	Francesco Bagnaia 0.52 · +0.016 s/v	Iker Lecuona 1.74 · −0.003 s/v	20
Valencia	Franco Morbidelli 0.65 · 0.000 s/v	Aleix Espargaro 1.88 · +0.029 s/v	18

For each GP, the index and net degradation (seconds per lap, tyre and fuel) of the most and least consistent. Only riders who ran the race in one stint: a bike swap or a pit stop leaves them out.

A rider over time

Miguel Oliveira

Rider

Miguel Oliveira: consistency index per season (below 1 = more consistent than the field).

Miguel Oliveira: GP by GP in 2021.

The dashed line is the field average (1). A single race can come out high because of a mistake or traffic: look at the trend, not one point.

Race

By manufacturer

Typical consistency of each manufacturer per year (Race)

2021 edition

Bike	Index (1 = field)	Rider races
Suzuki	0.93	29
Ducati	0.93	90
KTM	1.00	59
Yamaha	1.01	62
Aprilia	1.02	24
Honda	1.07	53

Median index across all rider races for each manufacturer. It mixes the bike and the riders on it.

Race

Whole career

Most consistent over a whole career (Race)

#	Rider	Index (1 = field)	Usual range	Races
1	Francesco Bagnaia	0.88	0.73–1.12	114
2	Jorge Lorenzo	0.88	0.72–1.04	24
3	Jorge Martin	0.89	0.73–1.08	81
4	Fabio Quartararo	0.91	0.74–1.11	132
5	Andrea Dovizioso	0.94	0.78–1.12	62
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	0.94	0.81–1.19	85
7	Joan Mir	0.94	0.75–1.06	97
8	Brad Binder	0.94	0.74–1.11	117
9	Ai Ogura	0.95	0.81–1.14	26
10	Marc Marquez	0.96	0.75–1.16	110
11	Danilo Petrucci	0.97	0.81–1.12	62
12	Marco Bezzecchi	0.98	0.78–1.16	77
13	Miguel Oliveira	0.98	0.77–1.17	98
14	Luca Marini	0.98	0.79–1.12	98
15	Alex Marquez	0.99	0.79–1.10	100
16	Alex Rins	0.99	0.82–1.21	126
17	Pedro Acosta	0.99	0.81–1.24	47
18	Jack Miller	1.00	0.83–1.29	139
19	Franco Morbidelli	1.00	0.82–1.21	135
20	Enea Bastianini	1.00	0.76–1.25	89
21	Johann Zarco	1.00	0.79–1.31	132
22	Cal Crutchlow	1.00	0.87–1.18	48
23	Valentino Rossi	1.01	0.82–1.25	58
24	Fermin Aldeguer	1.01	0.93–1.21	30
25	Takaaki Nakagami	1.03	0.88–1.36	108
26	Tito Rabat	1.05	0.84–1.33	37
27	Aleix Espargaro	1.06	0.89–1.31	103
28	Pol Espargaro	1.06	0.88–1.28	92
29	Stefan Bradl	1.06	0.87–1.21	41
30	Raul Fernandez	1.08	0.90–1.38	79
31	Iker Lecuona	1.08	0.85–1.45	31
32	Hafizh Syahrin	1.11	0.89–1.26	32
33	Maverick Viñales	1.12	0.90–1.35	130
34	Augusto Fernandez	1.14	0.94–1.70	43
35	Bradley Smith	1.16	0.92–1.29	29
36	Lorenzo Savadori	1.17	0.84–1.93	37
37	Remy Gardner	1.22	0.97–1.46	22
38	Andrea Iannone	1.26	1.00–1.68	31
39	Karel Abraham	1.28	1.09–1.57	31

Median index across all their races since 2018 (1 = like the field; below 1, more consistent), the same measure as the season and each GP. Only riders with 20 races or more: with few races the figure depends heavily on luck and wildcards would top the list.

How it’s calculated