Round 14 of 18 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2021

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

19.09 – 19.09.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:48.305	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.364	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+4.789	16
4	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.245	13
5	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.469	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+10.325	10
7	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.234	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+15.698	8
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.129	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+18.519	6
11	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.373	5
12	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+21.066	4
13	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+21.258	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Team Honda HRC	+28.142	2
15	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+30.686	1
16	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+32.654	0
17	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+33.853	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+36.272	0
19	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+36.839	0
20	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+37.202	0
21	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+42.587	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.81 / 0.81	2.8 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.615	—	+0.275	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:32.709	+0.094	+0.217	Medium	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.742	+0.127	+0.221	Soft	24
Enea Bastianini	1:32.756	+0.141	+0.319	Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:32.824	+0.209	+0.562	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.896	+0.281	+0.209	Soft	25
Marc Marquez	1:32.939	+0.324	+0.210	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:32.985	+0.370	+0.105	Soft	21
Pol Espargaro	1:32.988	+0.373	+0.406	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:33.053	+0.438	+0.327	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.068	+0.453	+0.359	Soft	22
Johann Zarco	1:33.082	+0.467	+0.344	Soft	23
Maverick Viñales	1:33.204	+0.589	+0.292	Soft	21
Michele Pirro	1:33.260	+0.645	+0.267	Soft	23
Jorge Martin	1:33.368	+0.753	+0.457	Soft	4
Iker Lecuona	1:33.518	+0.903	+0.094	Medium	10
Stefan Bradl	1:33.519	+0.904	+0.530	Medium	25
Alex Marquez	1:33.601	+0.986	+0.356	Soft	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:33.649	+1.034	+0.574	Medium	23
Valentino Rossi	1:33.664	+1.049	+0.508	Soft	23
Luca Marini	1:33.749	+1.134	+0.308	Soft	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.761	+1.146	+0.512	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.764	+1.149	+0.226	Medium	17
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.890	+1.275	+0.193	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.364 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Franco Morbidelli (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:20		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:04:54	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:30	Johann Zarco	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-2
Race	14:12:53	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-2
Race	14:15:29	Luca Marini	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-2
Race	14:16:51	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-2
Race	14:18:02	Jorge Martin	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:20:45	Andrea Dovizioso	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:23:00	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:27:09	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:43:37	Joan Mir	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap

Race: 12 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Iker Lecuona	20	16	+4
Enea Bastianini	12	9	+3
Marc Marquez	7	4	+3
Maverick Viñales	10	17	−7
Johann Zarco	5	12	−7
Franco Morbidelli	16	19	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	12→3	+6.9
Brad Binder	17→9	+4.1
Joan Mir	11→6	+3.3
Franco Morbidelli	16→18	−5.5
Johann Zarco	5→12	−6.6
Luca Marini	15→19	−7.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	54%	+0.50%	−0.007	1	2	9.8
Medium	46%	+0.97%	−0.022	0	1	12.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.1 °C

Air

max 27.5 °C

46%

Humidity

0.2 mm

Rain

4 km/h

Wind

gusts 27 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 17.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:32.666	—	15	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.854	+0.57%	5	Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:32.746	+0.080	15	291.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.132	+0.87%	5	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.801	+0.135	11	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:34.252	+1.00%	8	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:32.859	+0.193	13	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.828	+0.54%	7	Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:32.885	+0.219	18	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.062	+0.79%	7	Medium
6	Pol Espargaro	01:33.019	+0.353	16	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.188	+0.93%	7	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.024	+0.358	16	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.321	—	7	Medium
8	Stefan Bradl	01:33.047	+0.381	11	295.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:33.100	+0.434	15	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:35.038	+1.84%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.102	+0.436	11	294.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:33.143	+0.477	14	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.601	+1.37%	9	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:33.314	+0.648	11	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.950	+2.82%	8	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.409	+0.743	13	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.514	+1.28%	5	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	01:33.451	+0.785	12	295.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Michele Pirro	01:33.482	+0.816	11	293.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.570	+0.904	14	286.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.586	+1.36%	6	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:33.710	+1.044	13	290.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.684	+1.46%	6	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:33.766	+1.100	13	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.432	+2.26%	6	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	01:33.791	+1.125	12	289.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.950	+1.284	14	288.7	Medium / Medium	1:35.140	+1.95%	5	Medium
21	Brad Binder	01:34.022	+1.356	15	293.4	Medium / Hard	1:36.179	+3.06%	5	Hard
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.026	+1.360	13	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:34.292	+1.04%	6	Medium
23	Luca Marini	01:34.037	+1.371	12	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:36.417	+3.32%	5	Medium
24	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.211	+2.545	13	288.0	Soft / Medium	1:37.222	+4.18%	5	Medium

FP2 · 17.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:42.097	—	20	291.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.205	+0.16%	14	Wet-Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:42.650	+0.553	21	290.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:44.036	—	13	Wet-Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:42.719	+0.622	16	288.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.794	+0.73%	9	Wet-Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:42.910	+0.813	18	283.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.236	+5.00%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:42.921	+0.824	18	285.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.452	+2.32%	8	Wet-Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:43.234	+1.137	22	282.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.166	+1.09%	14	Wet-Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.329	+1.232	19	285.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.218	+1.14%	10	Wet-Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.629	+1.532	15	286.4	missing / missing	1:46.333	+2.21%	6	missing
9	Iker Lecuona	01:43.722	+1.625	14	281.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.672	+2.53%	8	Wet-Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:43.739	+1.642	20	288.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:46.241	+2.12%	12	Wet-Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:43.760	+1.663	18	287.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.340	+2.22%	8	Wet-Soft
12	Michele Pirro	01:43.811	+1.714	12	281.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.744	+1.64%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.844	+1.747	19	279.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.266	+3.11%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	01:43.901	+1.804	15	281.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.000	+3.81%	10	Wet-Soft
15	Jorge Martin	01:43.906	+1.809	20	289.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:47.753	+3.57%	9	Wet-Soft
16	Valentino Rossi	01:44.130	+2.033	20	283.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.158	+3.00%	9	Wet-Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	01:44.203	+2.106	16	286.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.549	+2.42%	8	Wet-Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.205	+2.108	20	282.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.642	+1.54%	11	Wet-Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:44.266	+2.169	19	287.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.584	+1.49%	8	Wet-Soft
20	Brad Binder	01:44.404	+2.307	20	281.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.258	+5.02%	12	Wet-Soft
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:44.530	+2.433	15	279.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.435	+2.31%	10	Wet-Soft
22	Stefan Bradl	01:44.713	+2.616	18	284.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.620	+2.48%	6	Wet-Soft
23	Luca Marini	01:44.970	+2.873	20	280.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.236	+5.00%	13	Wet-Soft
24	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.992	+2.895	19	281.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.667	+2.53%	10	Wet-Soft

FP3 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.936	—	19	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.975	+0.039	21	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.871	—	8	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:32.089	+0.153	21	298.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.960	+1.17%	6	Medium
4	Joan Mir	01:32.136	+0.200	23	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.252	+0.41%	7	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.200	+0.264	21	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.307	+0.371	16	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:32.324	+0.388	22	295.8	Soft / Soft	1:33.826	+1.03%	10	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:32.364	+0.428	20	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.996	+1.21%	10	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	01:32.416	+0.480	19	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Jorge Martin	01:32.427	+0.491	20	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Michele Pirro	01:32.432	+0.496	15	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.481	+0.545	20	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Stefan Bradl	01:32.550	+0.614	17	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Marc Marquez	01:32.637	+0.701	20	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.943	+2.23%	5	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.644	+0.708	21	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:32.807	+0.871	21	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:34.394	+1.64%	5	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:33.041	+1.105	20	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.481	+0.66%	5	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	01:33.053	+1.117	17	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.982	+1.20%	5	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:33.060	+1.124	20	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.143	+1.37%	5	Soft
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.074	+1.138	19	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.976	+2.27%	10	Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:33.146	+1.210	20	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.127	+2.43%	5	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.235	+1.299	19	297.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Brad Binder	01:33.305	+1.369	19	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:34.251	+1.49%	5	Medium
24	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.325	+1.389	19	291.1	Hard / Soft	1:34.486	+1.74%	5	Medium

FP4 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.197	—	16	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:32.534	—	7	Medium
2	Alex Rins	01:32.287	+0.090	16	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:32.694	+0.17%	7	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.333	+0.136	14	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.772	+0.26%	7	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:32.505	+0.308	16	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.960	+0.46%	10	Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:32.578	+0.381	13	288.7	Hard / Soft	1:33.020	+0.53%	8	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:32.635	+0.438	13	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.303	+0.83%	5	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.681	+0.484	16	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.008	+0.51%	6	Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:32.697	+0.500	13	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.190	+0.71%	6	Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.724	+0.527	16	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.250	+0.77%	6	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:32.768	+0.571	16	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.027	+0.53%	9	Soft
11	Michele Pirro	01:32.772	+0.575	10	292.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Maverick Viñales	01:32.926	+0.729	18	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.572	+1.12%	10	Soft
13	Jorge Martin	01:32.954	+0.757	14	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.670	+1.23%	6	Soft
14	Pol Espargaro	01:32.958	+0.761	17	294.2	Hard / Medium	1:33.757	+1.32%	11	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	01:33.028	+0.831	16	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.723	+1.29%	10	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:33.044	+0.847	13	292.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	01:33.086	+0.889	16	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.303	+0.83%	6	Soft
18	Iker Lecuona	01:33.228	+1.031	13	291.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.260	+1.063	16	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.488	+1.03%	6	Medium
20	Luca Marini	01:33.266	+1.069	13	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.315	+0.84%	5	Soft
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.280	+1.083	12	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:33.651	+1.21%	6	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:33.305	+1.108	15	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.526	+1.07%	6	Medium
23	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.551	+1.354	14	291.1	Hard / Medium	1:33.842	+1.41%	10	Medium
24	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.605	+1.408	16	286.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.315	+1.93%	5	Medium

Q1 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:31.876	—	7	298.3	Hard / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:32.029	+0.153	8	295.0	Hard / Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.210	+0.334	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
4	Michele Pirro	01:32.287	+0.411	7	291.1	Medium / Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:32.289	+0.413	7	291.8	Hard / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.296	+0.420	8	289.5	Medium / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:32.427	+0.551	6	293.4	Hard / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:32.439	+0.563	8	291.1	Hard / Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:32.476	+0.600	8	297.5	Hard / Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	01:32.481	+0.605	8	291.8	Hard / Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.821	+0.945	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.891	+1.015	8	290.3	Hard / Soft
13	Valentino Rossi	01:32.967	+1.091	6	287.2	Hard / Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.098	+1.222	8	288.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 18.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.065	—	9	296.7	Hard / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:31.314	+0.249	8	297.5	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.367	+0.302	7	291.1	Hard / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:31.663	+0.598	9	296.7	Medium / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:31.836	+0.771	8	299.1	Medium / Soft
6	Pol Espargaro	01:31.923	+0.858	8	296.7	Hard / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:31.935	+0.870	5	293.4	Medium / Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.937	+0.872	4	295.0	Hard / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:32.017	+0.952	8	294.2	Medium / Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:32.121	+1.056	7	295.8	Hard / Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:32.426	+1.361	7	289.5	Medium / Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:32.461	+1.396	7	293.4	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 19.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Rins	01:32.521	—	13	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.923	+1.21%	7	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.623	+0.102	12	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.802	—	6	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.780	+0.259	12	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.125	+0.35%	6	Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:32.790	+0.269	11	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:33.930	+1.22%	5	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.877	+0.356	13	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.194	+0.42%	7	Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:32.881	+0.360	10	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Michele Pirro	01:32.922	+0.401	12	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Enea Bastianini	01:32.954	+0.433	12	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.540	+0.80%	6	Soft
9	Brad Binder	01:32.991	+0.470	13	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:33.378	+0.62%	8	Medium
10	Stefan Bradl	01:32.997	+0.476	11	296.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Marc Marquez	01:33.008	+0.487	9	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:34.302	+1.62%	5	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:33.017	+0.496	12	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:33.197	+0.43%	6	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	01:33.064	+0.543	10	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.066	+0.545	13	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:34.047	+1.34%	10	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	01:33.074	+0.553	13	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.155	+1.46%	8	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:33.097	+0.576	12	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.173	+0.652	12	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.420	+0.67%	4	Soft
18	Maverick Viñales	01:33.242	+0.721	12	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.925	+1.21%	6	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	01:33.416	+0.895	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:33.917	+1.20%	6	Medium
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.503	+0.982	12	292.6	Hard / Medium	1:33.901	+1.18%	7	Medium
21	Iker Lecuona	01:33.555	+1.034	10	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:33.707	+1.186	12	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.540	+1.87%	6	Soft
23	Andrea Dovizioso	01:34.221	+1.700	12	291.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Franco Morbidelli	01:34.285	+1.764	12	292.6	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 19.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:48.305	25	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.742	+0.14%	24	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.364	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.615	—	23	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+4.789	16	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.756	+0.15%	24	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	+10.245	13	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.939	+0.35%	22	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+10.469	11	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.985	+0.40%	21	Soft
6	Joan Mir	+10.325	10	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.824	+0.23%	22	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	+13.234	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.988	+0.40%	25	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	+15.698	8	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.896	+0.30%	25	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+16.129	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.053	+0.47%	22	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+18.519	6	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.068	+0.49%	22	Soft
11	Michele Pirro	+20.373	5	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.260	+0.70%	23	Soft
12	Johann Zarco	+21.066	4	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.082	+0.50%	23	Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	+21.258	3	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.204	+0.64%	21	Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	+28.142	2	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.519	+0.98%	25	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	+30.686	1	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.601	+1.07%	22	Soft
16	Danilo Petrucci	+32.654	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.649	+1.12%	23	Medium
17	Valentino Rossi	+33.853	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.664	+1.13%	23	Soft
18	Franco Morbidelli	+36.272	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.761	+1.24%	21	Medium
19	Luca Marini	+36.839	0	27	Hard / Soft	1:33.749	+1.22%	22	Soft
20	Miguel Oliveira	+37.202	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.890	+1.38%	25	Medium
21	Andrea Dovizioso	+42.587	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.764	+1.24%	17	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:32.709	+0.10%	12	Medium
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	14	Hard / Medium	1:33.518	+0.98%	10	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	10	Medium / Soft	1:33.368	+0.81%	4	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:32.696	—	+0.217	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.802	+0.106	+0.275	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:32.829*	+0.133	+0.562	Medium	3
Stefan Bradl	1:33.339*	+0.643	+0.530	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:33.565*	+0.869	+0.457	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:33.625*	+0.929	+0.292	Medium	3
Andrea Dovizioso	1:34.066	+1.370	+0.226	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Michele Pirro	56%	4
2	Takaaki Nakagami	41%	3
3	Stefan Bradl	33%	8
4	Enea Bastianini	20%	1 ✓
5	Marc Marquez	17%	2 ✓
6	Franco Morbidelli	10%	6
7	Alex Marquez	9%	9
8	Iker Lecuona	4%	10
9	Brad Binder	2%	7
10	Valentino Rossi	3%	13
11	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	14
12	Luca Marini	2%	5
13	Miguel Oliveira	0%	11
14	Danilo Petrucci	0%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	67%	92%	1
2	Fabio Quartararo	27%	54%	84%	3
3	Jack Miller	16%	48%	80%	2
4	Joan Mir	3%	31%	67%	11
5	Maverick Viñales	4%	27%	53%	10
6	Alex Rins	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	12%	42%	8
8	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	36%	5
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	8%	28%	6
10	Jorge Martin	2%	8%	22%	4
11	Enea Bastianini	3%	12%	28%	12
12	Marc Marquez	0%	3%	16%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	25%	49%	60%	68%	30%	1
Jack Miller	2	20%	48%	62%	73%	26%	5
Fabio Quartararo	3	16%	47%	65%	82%	14%	2
Jorge Martin	4	11%	37%	56%	75%	21%	—
Johann Zarco	5	8%	31%	53%	78%	17%	12
Pol Espargaro	6	6%	24%	45%	73%	20%	7
Marc Marquez	7	4%	20%	41%	74%	15%	4
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	13%	29%	62%	26%	8
Alex Rins	9	2%	9%	22%	64%	20%	—
Maverick Viñales	10	1%	7%	20%	67%	12%	13
Joan Mir	11	1%	5%	14%	54%	16%	6
Enea Bastianini	12	0%	2%	9%	46%	22%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	13	1%	3%	9%	44%	14%	10
Michele Pirro	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	21%	11
Luca Marini	15	0%	2%	4%	33%	6%	19
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	3%	23%	18%	18
Brad Binder	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	19%	9
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	18%	14
Alex Marquez	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	25%	15
Iker Lecuona	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	30%	—
Miguel Oliveira	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	17%	20
Danilo Petrucci	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	16
Valentino Rossi	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	17
Andrea Dovizioso	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	21

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	214	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	161	−53
3	Joan Mir	157	−57
4	Johann Zarco	137	−77
5	Jack Miller	129	−85
6	Brad Binder	117	−97

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Franco Morbidelli

2.217 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P14 to P8.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Miguel Oliveira (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.097	—	+0.221	Soft	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.177	+0.080	+0.512	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.251	+0.154	+0.275	Medium	13
Valentino Rossi	1:33.267	+0.170	+0.508	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:33.303	+0.206	+0.562	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:33.359	+0.262	+0.217	Soft	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.386	+0.289	+0.226	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:33.391	+0.294	+0.292	Hard	24
Jack Miller	1:33.422	+0.325	+0.105	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:33.449	+0.352	+0.327	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	57%	+0.53%	−0.007	0	1	11.7
Medium	38%	+0.30%	−0.024	1	2	7.9
Hard	5%	+0.32%	−0.030	0	0	6.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.