Round 18 of 18 Aftermath

Valencia Grand Prix 2021

4.005 m · 27 laps · since 1999

12.11 – 14.11.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:15.481	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+0.489	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.823	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.214	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.439	11
6	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+6.993	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.437	9
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+10.933	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+12.651	7
10	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+13.468	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.085	5
12	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+16.534	4
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+17.059	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.221	2
15	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+19.233	1
16	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+19.815	0
17	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+28.860	0
18	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+32.169	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 27%	Francesco Bagnaia · 20% · from P2	0.84 / 0.84	2.2 / 2.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jack Miller	1:31.424	—	+0.105	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.432	+0.008	+0.221	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:31.516	+0.092	+0.457	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:31.572	+0.148	+0.217	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:31.612	+0.188	+0.344	Medium	25
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.630	+0.206	+0.275	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:31.670	+0.246	+0.562	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.712	+0.288	+0.319	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:31.730	+0.306	+0.327	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.741	+0.317	+0.209	Medium	25
Alex Marquez	1:31.912	+0.488	+0.356	Medium	24
Valentino Rossi	1:31.914	+0.490	+0.508	Medium	24
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.932	+0.508	+0.512	Medium	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.947	+0.523	+0.226	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.010	+0.586	+0.193	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:32.030	+0.606	+0.292	Medium	24
Iker Lecuona	1:32.052	+0.628	+0.094	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:32.357	+0.933	+0.308	Medium	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.464	+1.040	+0.574	Medium	25

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.489 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Iker Lecuona vs Miguel Oliveira (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:07:24	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:16:27	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	20	15	+5
Aleix Espargaro	12	7	+5
Alex Marquez	19	16	+3
Johann Zarco	5	10	−5
Danilo Petrucci	16	19	−3
Iker Lecuona	15	18	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	18→8	+5.8
Francesco Bagnaia	2→1	+2.5
Fabio Quartararo	8→5	+2.3
Luca Marini	17→17	−3.9
Maverick Viñales	14→16	−4.8
Danilo Petrucci	16→18	−5.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.44%	−0.004	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.8 °C

Air

max 19.1 °C

43%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 16 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Iker Lecuona	01:40.569	—	19	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.059	+0.93%	14	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:40.724	+0.155	12	322.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.159	+1.03%	6	Wet-Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.730	+0.161	19	313.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.107	—	13	Wet-Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.940	+0.371	20	319.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.049	+1.90%	14	Wet-Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:40.943	+0.374	17	318.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.970	+0.85%	10	Wet-Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.015	+0.446	13	321.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:42.981	+0.86%	6	Wet-Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:41.104	+0.535	14	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.205	+1.08%	6	Wet-Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.200	+0.631	17	313.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.668	+2.51%	10	Wet-Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:41.300	+0.731	19	318.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.889	+1.75%	11	Wet-Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.486	+0.917	19	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.249	+1.12%	10	Wet-Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:41.512	+0.943	16	318.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.337	+1.21%	11	Wet-Soft
12	Jorge Martin	01:41.547	+0.978	18	318.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.957	+1.81%	9	Wet-Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.889	+1.320	14	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.020	+3.83%	6	Wet-Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	01:41.974	+1.405	14	316.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.182	+2.03%	9	Wet-Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	01:42.081	+1.512	21	315.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.869	+1.73%	14	Wet-Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:42.158	+1.589	16	319.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.891	+1.75%	6	Wet-Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:42.168	+1.599	19	312.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.318	+4.12%	14	Wet-Soft
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:42.182	+1.613	12	308.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.464	+1.33%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.438	+1.869	6	309.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Maverick Viñales	01:42.767	+2.198	15	321.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.765	+3.58%	4	Wet-Soft
—	Valentino Rossi	01:52.981	+12.412	4	292.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP2 · 12.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:30.927	—	20	328.9	Medium / Soft	1:33.037	+0.69%	5	Medium
2	Pol Espargaro	01:30.939	+0.012	19	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.625	+1.33%	4	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.995	+0.068	20	330.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.688	+0.31%	7	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:31.336	+0.409	19	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.398	—	5	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:31.396	+0.469	17	328.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.427	+0.500	20	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.322	+1.00%	5	Medium
7	Joan Mir	01:31.513	+0.586	20	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.024	+0.68%	5	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:31.521	+0.594	20	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.749	+1.46%	11	Medium
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.597	+0.670	22	324.3	Hard / Soft	1:32.874	+0.52%	5	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:31.603	+0.676	21	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:33.449	+1.14%	6	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.708	+0.781	17	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.693	+0.32%	5	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.820	+0.893	21	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.586	+1.29%	6	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.832	+0.905	20	321.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.672	+0.30%	4	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:31.852	+0.925	20	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.910	+0.55%	5	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.083	+1.156	21	321.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.041	+1.78%	10	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	01:32.098	+1.171	18	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.484	+1.18%	5	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.208	+1.281	21	328.9	Medium / Soft	1:33.964	+1.70%	12	Medium
18	Maverick Viñales	01:32.214	+1.287	16	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Enea Bastianini	01:32.219	+1.292	14	325.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:32.229	+1.302	19	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:36.545	+4.49%	5	Medium
21	Valentino Rossi	01:32.285	+1.358	19	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.756	+3.63%	6	Medium

FP3 · 13.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.529	—	17	327.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.110	+0.53%	5	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:30.547	+0.018	21	333.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.811	+0.20%	11	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.614	+0.085	20	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.460	+0.91%	4	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.652	+0.123	21	328.9	Hard / Soft	1:32.448	+0.90%	10	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:30.714	+0.185	20	330.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.700	+1.17%	6	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:30.762	+0.233	21	327.4	Medium / Soft	1:31.644	+0.02%	5	Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.777	+0.248	20	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.385	+0.83%	5	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:30.786	+0.257	23	328.9	Hard / Soft	1:32.242	+0.67%	10	Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.791	+0.262	23	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.270	+0.70%	11	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:30.825	+0.296	22	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:30.866	+0.337	22	327.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:30.893	+0.364	21	328.9	Hard / Soft	1:32.895	+1.38%	7	Medium
13	Iker Lecuona	01:31.112	+0.583	20	322.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Luca Marini	01:31.135	+0.606	20	324.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	01:31.152	+0.623	23	332.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.355	+0.79%	5	Medium
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.217	+0.688	20	319.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.952	+1.45%	5	Medium
17	Maverick Viñales	01:31.239	+0.710	19	327.4	Hard / Soft	1:33.551	+2.10%	5	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.377	+0.848	22	322.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.721	+1.19%	9	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.388	+0.859	21	327.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.524	+0.98%	5	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:31.389	+0.860	18	330.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.649	+1.11%	5	Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	01:31.495	+0.966	14	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:31.628	—	7	Medium

FP4 · 13.11 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.208	—	18	327.4	Hard / Medium	1:31.492	+0.08%	8	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.277	+0.069	16	318.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.422	—	5	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:31.338	+0.130	13	319.8	Hard / Medium	1:31.724	+0.33%	6	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.377	+0.169	16	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.659	+0.26%	5	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.387	+0.179	12	315.4	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Joan Mir	01:31.496	+0.288	14	318.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.638	+0.24%	10	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:31.500	+0.292	16	327.4	Hard / Medium	1:31.915	+0.54%	10	Medium
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.506	+0.298	15	322.8	Hard / Medium	1:31.722	+0.33%	7	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:31.523	+0.315	15	322.8	Hard / Hard	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.529	+0.321	17	322.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.845	+0.46%	8	Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:31.631	+0.423	15	325.8	Hard / Hard	1:32.455	+1.13%	11	Hard
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.705	+0.497	13	321.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.821	+0.44%	7	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.712	+0.504	13	315.4	Hard / Medium	1:32.172	+0.82%	5	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:31.758	+0.550	15	327.4	Hard / Hard	1:33.107	+1.84%	5	Hard
15	Jack Miller	01:31.763	+0.555	18	328.9	Hard / Hard	1:32.045	+0.68%	14	Hard
16	Luca Marini	01:31.775	+0.567	10	324.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	01:31.817	+0.609	16	319.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.177	+0.83%	11	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.852	+0.644	16	316.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.401	+1.07%	11	Medium
19	Iker Lecuona	01:31.951	+0.743	14	335.4	Hard / Medium	1:32.319	+0.98%	4	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:32.031	+0.823	15	324.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.359	+1.03%	11	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 13.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:30.673	—	7	319.8	Hard / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:30.788	+0.115	8	324.3	Hard / Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.859	+0.186	9	316.8	Hard / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:30.991	+0.318	8	321.3	Hard / Soft
5	Iker Lecuona	01:30.994	+0.321	9	325.8	Hard / Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:31.045	+0.372	9	316.8	Hard / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:31.073	+0.400	8	322.8	Hard / Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.185	+0.512	8	321.3	Hard / Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:31.251	+0.578	7	327.4	Hard / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.319	+0.646	8	321.3	Hard / Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 13.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.936	—	9	328.9	Hard / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.000	+0.064	8	325.8	Hard / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:30.325	+0.389	8	328.9	Medium / Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:30.395	+0.459	9	325.8	Hard / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:30.418	+0.482	9	328.9	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:30.475	+0.539	7	322.8	Hard / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:30.509	+0.573	7	324.3	Hard / Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.620	+0.684	8	321.3	Hard / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.644	+0.708	9	322.8	Hard / Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:30.746	+0.810	9	324.3	Hard / Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.781	+0.845	8	319.8	Hard / Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.024	+1.088	8	324.3	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:31.082	—	13	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.676	—	11	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.230	+0.148	13	330.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.323	+0.71%	10	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:31.320	+0.238	12	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.016	+0.37%	8	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.353	+0.271	10	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:31.777	+0.11%	6	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:31.433	+0.351	13	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:32.134	+0.50%	10	Medium
6	Enea Bastianini	01:31.472	+0.390	13	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:33.019	+1.47%	9	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.523	+0.441	12	325.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.007	+0.36%	9	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:31.633	+0.551	13	327.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.148	+0.52%	9	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:31.696	+0.614	6	328.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.701	+0.619	12	324.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.930	+0.28%	8	Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.708	+0.626	13	325.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.180	+0.55%	11	Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:31.728	+0.646	13	332.1	Medium / Medium	1:32.157	+0.53%	11	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.747	+0.665	12	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.056	+0.42%	8	Medium
14	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.927	+0.845	13	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.383	+0.77%	9	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:31.981	+0.899	13	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:32.296	+0.68%	8	Medium
16	Valentino Rossi	01:31.987	+0.905	13	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.569	+0.97%	8	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.060	+0.978	12	319.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.290	+0.67%	8	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.296	+1.214	10	324.3	Medium / Medium	1:32.734	+1.15%	6	Medium
19	Alex Marquez	01:32.327	+1.245	12	328.9	Medium / Medium	1:32.807	+1.23%	8	Medium
20	Luca Marini	01:32.392	+1.310	12	325.8	Medium / Medium	1:32.703	+1.12%	8	Medium

Race · 14.11

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:15.481	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.432	+0.01%	25	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+0.489	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.516	+0.10%	25	Medium
3	Jack Miller	+0.823	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.424	—	25	Medium
4	Joan Mir	+5.214	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.670	+0.27%	24	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	+5.439	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.630	+0.23%	23	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	+6.993	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.612	+0.21%	25	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+8.437	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.730	+0.34%	25	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	+10.933	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.712	+0.32%	24	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+12.651	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.741	+0.35%	25	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	+13.468	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.914	+0.54%	24	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	+14.085	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.932	+0.56%	24	Medium
12	Andrea Dovizioso	+16.534	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.947	+0.57%	25	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	+17.059	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.912	+0.53%	24	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	+18.221	2	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.010	+0.64%	25	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	+19.233	1	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.052	+0.69%	25	Medium
16	Maverick Viñales	+19.815	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.030	+0.66%	24	Medium
17	Luca Marini	+28.860	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.357	+1.02%	24	Medium
18	Danilo Petrucci	+32.169	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.464	+1.14%	25	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	10	Hard / Medium	1:31.572	+0.16%	7	Medium
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.572	—	+0.359	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:31.613*	+0.041	+0.562	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	1:31.628	+0.056	+0.406	Medium	7
Alex Rins	1:31.769	+0.197	+0.217	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:31.781	+0.209	+0.344	Medium	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.792	+0.220	+0.221	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:31.985	+0.413	+0.105	Medium	9
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.057	+0.485	+0.512	Medium	11
Jorge Martin	1:32.069*	+0.497	+0.457	Medium	3
Brad Binder	1:32.168	+0.596	+0.327	Medium	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.236	+0.664	+0.275	Medium	10
Danilo Petrucci	1:32.297	+0.725	+0.574	Medium	11
Valentino Rossi	1:32.326	+0.754	+0.508	Medium	9
Alex Marquez	1:32.327	+0.755	+0.356	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	1:32.370*	+0.798	+0.319	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:32.398	+0.826	+0.094	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:32.540	+0.968	+0.308	Medium	12
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.548	+0.976	+0.193	Medium	12
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.614*	+1.042	+0.226	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:33.282*	+1.710	+0.292	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	56%	1 ✓
2	Brad Binder	41%	2 ✓
3	Iker Lecuona	33%	5
4	Luca Marini	20%	7
5	Alex Marquez	17%	9
6	Danilo Petrucci	10%	6
7	Maverick Viñales	8%	4
8	Andrea Dovizioso	5%	3
9	Miguel Oliveira	2%	10
10	Enea Bastianini	3%	8

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	36%	66%	90%	12
2	Jack Miller	27%	54%	84%	3
3	Franco Morbidelli	15%	48%	80%	11
4	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	31%	68%	2
5	Jorge Martin	4%	27%	53%	1
6	Joan Mir	6%	21%	54%	4
7	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	12%	41%	9
8	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	36%	5
9	Fabio Quartararo	2%	8%	28%	8
10	Valentino Rossi	2%	8%	23%	10
11	Alex Rins	3%	12%	29%	6
12	Brad Binder	0%	3%	16%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Pol Espargaro	21	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	27%	52%	64%	72%	27%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	2	20%	46%	60%	70%	29%	1
Jack Miller	3	15%	42%	58%	73%	26%	3
Joan Mir	4	13%	39%	59%	80%	17%	4
Johann Zarco	5	9%	31%	52%	78%	17%	6
Alex Rins	6	5%	24%	45%	74%	20%	—
Brad Binder	7	4%	20%	40%	73%	17%	7
Fabio Quartararo	8	3%	15%	32%	72%	15%	5
Takaaki Nakagami	9	2%	10%	24%	70%	13%	—
Valentino Rossi	10	1%	8%	20%	66%	12%	10
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	5%	14%	56%	17%	11
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	9%	42%	26%	9
Andrea Dovizioso	13	0%	2%	8%	44%	12%	12
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	6%	38%	11%	16
Iker Lecuona	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	35%	15
Danilo Petrucci	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	20%	18
Luca Marini	17	0%	1%	2%	18%	5%	17
Enea Bastianini	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	18%	8
Alex Marquez	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	25%	13
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	19%	14
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,007 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.41%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Augusto Fernandez +0.33%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Alex Marquez +0.47%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.34%	Raul Fernandez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Brad Binder +0.35%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S3	Augusto Fernandez +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Brad Binder +0.39%
S4	Brad Binder +0.05%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.02%	Enea Bastianini +0.19%	Brad Binder +0.25%
S2	Jack Miller +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S3	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Johann Zarco +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Brad Binder +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S2	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Joan Mir +0.28%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.20%	Pol Espargaro +0.23%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Brad Binder +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Miguel Oliveira +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%
S2	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.39%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.05%	Jack Miller +0.35%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Alex Rins +0.01%	Andrea Iannone +0.42%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.36%	Pol Espargaro +0.51%	Michele Pirro +0.58%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.52%	Aleix Espargaro +0.83%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.85%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Iannone +0.19%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.37%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

91/100

Position index

43%

Pole wins

71%

Front row on the podium

0.83

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	267	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	227	−40
3	Joan Mir	195	−72
4	Jack Miller	165	−102
5	Johann Zarco	163	−104
6	Brad Binder	142	−125

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Franco Morbidelli

0.093 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P14 to P4.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Joan Mir (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.685	—	+0.512	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.690	+0.005	+0.359	Medium	13
Jack Miller	1:31.720	+0.035	+0.105	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.763	+0.078	+0.406	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:31.796	+0.111	+0.217	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:31.826	+0.141	+0.327	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:31.947	+0.262	+0.562	Medium	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.952	+0.267	+0.193	Medium	25
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.956	+0.271	+0.226	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.058	+0.373	+0.209	Medium	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Alex RinsSuzuki
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2017Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	7/24	29%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	2/20	10%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	7/22	32%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.41%	+0.013	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.