Round 3 of 18 Aftermath

Portuguese Grand Prix 2021

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

16.04 – 18.04.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	41:46.412	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.809	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.948	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+5.127	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.668	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+8.885	10
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.208	9
8	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+17.992	8
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+22.369	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+23.676	6
11	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.761	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+29.660	4
13	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+29.836	3
14	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+38.941	2
15	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+50.642	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 29% ✓	Fabio Quartararo · 29% · from P1	0.57 / 0.57	3.1 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.046	—	+0.275	Hard	22
Alex Rins	1:40.130	+0.084	+0.217	Medium	16
Johann Zarco	1:40.133	+0.087	+0.344	Medium	17
Brad Binder	1:40.159	+0.113	+0.327	Hard	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.209	+0.163	+0.221	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.212	+0.166	+0.512	Hard	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.280	+0.234	+0.209	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:40.310	+0.264	+0.562	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:40.485	+0.439	+0.210	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:40.605	+0.559	+0.356	Medium	21
Valentino Rossi	1:40.736	+0.690	+0.508	Hard	11
Maverick Viñales	1:40.749	+0.703	+0.292	Hard	19
Enea Bastianini	1:40.848	+0.802	+0.319	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.913	+0.867	+0.359	Medium	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.119	+1.073	+0.574	Hard	23
Luca Marini	1:41.264	+1.218	+0.308	Medium	22
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.506	+1.460	+0.781	Medium	20
Iker Lecuona	1:42.125	+2.079	+0.094	Hard	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:42.489	+2.443	+0.193	Hard	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.809 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P21 to P10.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Takaaki Nakagami (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:01:42		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:08:06	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	13:09:47	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:10:54	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:25:43	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:31:40	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:33:44	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Johann Zarco (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Takaaki Nakagami	21	14	+7
Brad Binder	15	9	+6
Joan Mir	9	3	+6
Maverick Viñales	12	20	−8
Fabio Quartararo	1	6	−5
Miguel Oliveira	10	12	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	11→2	+7.3
Brad Binder	15→5	+6.8
Takaaki Nakagami	21→10	+5.7
Maverick Viñales	12→11	−1.1
Luca Marini	8→12	−4.7
Miguel Oliveira	10→16	−7.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	62%	+0.56%	−0.026	0	2	7.9
Hard	38%	+0.70%	−0.024	1	1	9.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

22.0 °C

Air

max 22.3 °C

40%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 34 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:42.127	—	15	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:45.784	+0.95%	8	Medium
2	Alex Rins	01:42.278	+0.151	18	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:47.997	+3.06%	13	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:42.378	+0.251	14	330.2	Soft / Medium	1:48.209	+3.26%	10	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:42.382	+0.255	12	337.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:42.443	+0.316	20	342.8	Soft / Medium	1:47.116	+2.22%	16	Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:42.464	+0.337	20	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:47.095	+2.20%	16	Medium
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:42.528	+0.401	14	328.2	Soft / Medium	1:48.447	+3.49%	6	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:42.536	+0.409	18	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:51.072	+5.99%	5	Medium
9	Alex Marquez	01:42.781	+0.654	14	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.727	+5.66%	6	Medium
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:42.957	+0.830	12	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:44.792	—	5	Medium
11	Valentino Rossi	01:43.013	+0.886	19	327.2	Soft / Medium	1:49.458	+4.45%	14	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:43.036	+0.909	13	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:43.060	+0.933	15	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:47.075	+2.18%	6	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.243	+1.116	21	329.2	Soft / Medium	1:48.603	+3.64%	14	Medium
15	Lorenzo Savadori	01:43.539	+1.412	17	331.2	Soft / Medium	1:49.504	+4.50%	10	Medium
16	Jorge Martin	01:43.702	+1.575	19	338.5	Soft / Medium	1:51.602	+6.50%	11	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.000	+1.873	18	334.3	Soft / Medium	1:49.152	+4.16%	6	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:44.602	+2.475	15	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:51.501	+6.40%	8	Medium
19	Iker Lecuona	01:44.967	+2.840	20	325.3	Soft / Medium	1:49.712	+4.70%	15	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:45.325	+3.198	14	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:54.934	+9.68%	6	Medium
21	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.335	+3.208	10	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Brad Binder	01:47.774	+5.647	17	331.2	Soft / Medium	1:54.041	+8.83%	12	Medium

FP2 · 16.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.866	—	18	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:42.474	+1.09%	6	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.206	+0.340	19	329.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.407	+0.03%	7	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:40.285	+0.419	18	330.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.809	+0.43%	7	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:40.328	+0.462	19	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:42.113	+0.73%	5	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:40.336	+0.470	17	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:40.339	+0.473	18	333.3	Medium / Soft	1:41.373	—	4	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:40.426	+0.560	20	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:42.055	+0.67%	7	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:40.490	+0.624	19	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.685	+0.31%	6	Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.592	+0.726	18	333.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.611	+0.745	8	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Marquez	01:40.732	+0.866	18	336.4	Medium / Soft	1:42.132	+0.75%	5	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:40.743	+0.877	18	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:44.694	+3.28%	6	Medium
13	Luca Marini	01:40.761	+0.895	18	331.2	Medium / Soft	1:44.422	+3.01%	4	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.907	+1.041	16	333.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:41.125	+1.259	19	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:42.382	+1.00%	10	Medium
16	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.140	+1.274	19	338.5	Medium / Soft	1:43.353	+1.95%	6	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:41.183	+1.317	18	337.5	Hard / Soft	1:43.060	+1.66%	5	Medium
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.187	+1.321	19	328.2	Hard / Soft	1:42.524	+1.14%	9	Hard
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.216	+1.350	21	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.988	+0.61%	13	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:41.836	+1.970	16	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	01:42.461	+2.595	18	330.2	Hard / Soft	1:44.139	+2.73%	5	Medium
22	Jorge Martin	01:42.921	+3.055	18	338.5	Medium / Soft	1:43.798	+2.39%	6	Medium

FP3 · 17.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.044	—	18	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.625	+0.11%	9	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.095	+0.051	19	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.705	+0.19%	5	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.117	+0.073	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.988	+0.47%	5	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.228	+0.184	18	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.518	—	9	Medium
5	Alex Rins	01:39.328	+0.284	20	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.314	+0.79%	5	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:39.345	+0.301	17	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:39.600	+0.556	18	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.224	+0.70%	6	Medium
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.690	+0.646	15	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.719	+1.20%	5	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.697	+0.653	19	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.582	+0.06%	5	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:39.742	+0.698	22	331.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.786	+0.27%	11	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:39.796	+0.752	20	341.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:39.818	+0.774	19	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:39.828	+0.784	19	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:41.024	+0.50%	5	Medium
14	Valentino Rossi	01:39.912	+0.868	22	336.4	Medium / Soft	1:41.410	+0.89%	12	Medium
15	Marc Marquez	01:39.945	+0.901	21	338.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Brad Binder	01:40.196	+1.152	17	341.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.916	+0.40%	4	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.302	+1.258	19	337.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:40.343	+1.299	17	340.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Jorge Martin	01:41.046	+2.002	12	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.190	+2.146	17	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:41.547	+1.02%	5	Medium
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.566	+2.522	9	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Iker Lecuona	01:41.568	+2.524	19	336.4	Hard / Soft	1:42.396	+1.87%	4	Medium

FP4 · 17.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.788	—	15	328.2	Medium / Hard	1:39.902	—	10	Medium
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.056	+0.268	15	332.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.461	+0.56%	10	Hard
3	Johann Zarco	01:40.073	+0.285	13	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:40.757	+0.86%	6	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.075	+0.287	16	327.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.584	+0.68%	10	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.111	+0.323	14	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.695	+0.79%	5	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.124	+0.336	13	326.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.744	+0.84%	6	Medium
7	Alex Marquez	01:40.168	+0.380	15	338.5	Medium / Medium	1:41.048	+1.15%	7	Hard
8	Jack Miller	01:40.173	+0.385	18	343.9	Medium / Medium	1:40.839	+0.94%	15	Medium
9	Marc Marquez	01:40.197	+0.409	15	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:40.900	+1.00%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:40.220	+0.432	15	334.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.968	+1.07%	6	Hard
11	Brad Binder	01:40.304	+0.516	14	336.4	Hard / Hard	1:40.974	+1.07%	9	Hard
12	Alex Rins	01:40.458	+0.670	14	333.3	Medium / Medium	1:40.624	+0.72%	6	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:40.515	+0.727	7	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.762	+2.86%	5	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.516	+0.728	13	337.5	Medium / Medium	1:41.315	+1.41%	7	Medium
15	Valentino Rossi	01:40.619	+0.831	16	333.3	Hard / Medium	1:41.183	+1.28%	11	Medium
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.657	+0.869	13	334.3	Hard / Hard	1:41.193	+1.29%	5	Hard
17	Luca Marini	01:40.765	+0.977	15	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:40.970	+1.07%	12	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	01:40.809	+1.021	13	338.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.357	+1.569	10	334.3	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Iker Lecuona	01:41.630	+1.842	13	337.5	Hard / Hard	1:42.050	+2.15%	5	Hard
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

Q1 · 17.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:39.253	—	8	334.3	Medium / Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:39.302	+0.049	8	329.2	Medium / Soft
3	Alex Marquez	01:39.530	+0.277	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:39.710	+0.457	8	334.3	Medium / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:39.776	+0.523	8	336.4	Medium / Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:39.855	+0.602	8	338.5	Medium / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:39.943	+0.690	8	334.3	Medium / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.202	+0.949	8	336.4	Hard / Soft
9	Iker Lecuona	01:40.408	+1.155	8	336.4	Hard / Soft
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.444	+1.191	8	336.4	Medium / Soft
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		—	0	0.0	— / —

Q2 · 17.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.862	—	7	334.3	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:38.951	+0.089	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:38.991	+0.129	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:39.061	+0.199	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.103	+0.241	7	328.2	Medium / Soft
6	Marc Marquez	01:39.121	+0.259	3	332.3	Medium / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.169	+0.307	7	337.5	Medium / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:39.386	+0.524	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:39.398	+0.536	8	330.2	Medium / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.445	+0.583	6	330.2	Medium / Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.482	+0.620	8	339.6	Medium / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:39.807	+0.945	7	331.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 18.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:39.721	—	8	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.801	+0.080	11	333.3	Medium / Hard	1:40.111	—	7	Hard
3	Joan Mir	01:39.821	+0.100	12	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:40.201	+0.09%	8	Medium
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.871	+0.150	12	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.192	+0.08%	10	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.878	+0.157	12	328.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.210	+0.10%	9	Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.912	+0.191	12	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.328	+0.22%	10	Medium
7	Johann Zarco	01:40.041	+0.320	11	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:41.310	+1.20%	6	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:40.124	+0.403	12	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.155	+1.04%	10	Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:40.173	+0.452	12	336.4	Medium / Hard	1:40.786	+0.67%	9	Hard
10	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.393	+0.672	12	338.5	Medium / Hard	1:41.117	+1.01%	9	Hard
11	Alex Marquez	01:40.443	+0.722	11	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.857	+0.75%	6	Medium
12	Alex Rins	01:40.533	+0.812	10	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:40.635	+0.52%	6	Medium
13	Pol Espargaro	01:40.558	+0.837	11	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:40.839	+0.73%	6	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.609	+0.888	8	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Enea Bastianini	01:40.617	+0.896	11	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.666	+2.55%	8	Medium
16	Luca Marini	01:40.806	+1.085	11	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:41.394	+1.28%	6	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.859	+1.138	11	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:41.218	+1.11%	7	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	01:41.167	+1.446	11	335.4	Medium / Medium	1:41.666	+1.55%	6	Medium
19	Marc Marquez	01:41.237	+1.516	4	329.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.477	+1.756	11	334.3	Medium / Medium	1:42.142	+2.03%	7	Medium
21	Iker Lecuona	01:41.773	+2.052	12	336.4	Medium / Medium	1:42.190	+2.08%	9	Medium

Race · 18.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	41:46.412	25	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.046	—	22	Hard
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+4.809	20	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.209	+0.16%	21	Medium
3	Joan Mir	+4.948	16	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.310	+0.26%	23	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+5.127	13	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.212	+0.17%	20	Hard
5	Brad Binder	+6.668	11	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.159	+0.11%	21	Hard
6	Aleix Espargaro	+8.885	10	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.280	+0.23%	22	Medium
7	Marc Marquez	+13.208	9	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.485	+0.44%	21	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+17.992	8	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.605	+0.56%	21	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	+22.369	7	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.848	+0.80%	22	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+23.676	6	25	Medium / Medium	1:40.913	+0.87%	21	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+23.761	5	25	Medium / Hard	1:40.749	+0.70%	19	Hard
12	Luca Marini	+29.660	4	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.264	+1.22%	22	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	+29.836	3	25	Hard / Hard	1:41.119	+1.07%	23	Hard
14	Lorenzo Savadori	+38.941	2	25	Medium / Medium	1:41.506	+1.46%	20	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	+50.642	1	25	Medium / Hard	1:42.125	+2.08%	22	Hard
16	Miguel Oliveira	+0.000	0	24	Medium / Hard	1:42.489	+2.44%	18	Hard
Retired	Alex Rins		0	18	Medium / Medium	1:40.130	+0.08%	16	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	19	Medium / Medium	1:40.133	+0.09%	17	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	14	Medium / Hard	1:40.736	+0.69%	11	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.191	—	+0.209	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:40.197	+0.006	+0.344	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.294	+0.103	+0.512	Medium	15
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.298	+0.107	+0.221	Medium	17
Joan Mir	1:40.337	+0.146	+0.562	Medium	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.394	+0.203	+0.275	Medium	12
Maverick Viñales	1:40.498	+0.307	+0.292	Medium	12
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.544	+0.353	+0.193	Medium	6
Marc Marquez	1:40.709	+0.518	+0.210	Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	1:40.734	+0.543	+0.406	Medium	10
Alex Marquez	1:40.826	+0.635	+0.356	Medium	9
Luca Marini	1:40.951	+0.760	+0.308	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	1:41.176*	+0.985	+0.457	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:41.258	+1.067	+0.217	Medium	10
Enea Bastianini	1:41.268	+1.077	+0.319	Medium	5
Valentino Rossi	1:41.434	+1.243	+0.508	Medium	13
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.547	+1.356	+0.781	Medium	7
Jack Miller	1:41.566*	+1.375	+0.105	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:43.218*	+3.027	+0.094	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Marquez	58%	3
2	Joan Mir	42%	2 ✓
3	Pol Espargaro	32%	4
4	Valentino Rossi	20%	7
5	Marc Marquez	17%	1 ✓
6	Brad Binder	10%	5
7	Danilo Petrucci	9%	8
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	6
9	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	10
10	Iker Lecuona	3%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Fabio Quartararo	37%	69%	92%	1
2	Franco Morbidelli	26%	51%	84%	5
3	Francesco Bagnaia	17%	50%	81%	11
4	Johann Zarco	4%	32%	69%	3
5	Alex Rins	4%	27%	54%	2
6	Jack Miller	6%	22%	56%	4
7	Luca Marini	1%	11%	42%	8
8	Aleix Espargaro	2%	11%	35%	7
9	Miguel Oliveira	1%	8%	29%	10
10	Maverick Viñales	2%	7%	21%	12
11	Joan Mir	1%	9%	25%	9
12	Marc Marquez	0%	2%	15%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	29%	58%	72%	81%	18%	1
Alex Rins	2	22%	51%	66%	79%	19%	—
Johann Zarco	3	16%	46%	65%	81%	16%	—
Jack Miller	4	10%	34%	51%	70%	25%	—
Franco Morbidelli	5	7%	29%	50%	75%	20%	4
Marc Marquez	6	6%	25%	48%	80%	14%	7
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	17%	34%	67%	26%	6
Luca Marini	8	3%	14%	33%	72%	14%	12
Joan Mir	9	2%	9%	23%	67%	18%	3
Miguel Oliveira	10	1%	7%	18%	65%	14%	16
Francesco Bagnaia	11	1%	4%	10%	42%	36%	2
Maverick Viñales	12	0%	4%	10%	52%	12%	11
Alex Marquez	13	0%	2%	6%	38%	23%	8
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	5%	34%	20%	—
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	3%	26%	23%	5
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	14%	9
Valentino Rossi	17	0%	0%	1%	18%	11%	—
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	20%	13
Iker Lecuona	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	36%	15
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	29%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	15%	10

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.25%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.32%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.50%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.57%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Pedro Acosta +0.33%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.52%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Alex Marquez +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.63%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%	Alex Marquez +0.37%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.16%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.26%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.27%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.13%	Joan Mir +0.33%	Jack Miller +0.34%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Aleix Espargaro +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Brad Binder +0.48%	Alex Rins +0.58%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.55%	Johann Zarco +0.60%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Jack Miller +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.76%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%	Alex Marquez +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S2	Miguel Oliveira +0.17%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.01%	Johann Zarco +0.43%	Stefan Bradl +0.46%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.02%	Cal Crutchlow +0.13%	Stefan Bradl +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

14/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

61%

Front row on the podium

0.68

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2020–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Johann Zarco	40	—
2	Maverick Viñales	36	−4
3	Fabio Quartararo	36	−4
4	Francesco Bagnaia	26	−14
5	Alex Rins	23	−17
6	Joan Mir	22	−18

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

3.193 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P16 to P9.

Longest battle: Franco Morbidelli vs Jack Miller (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.140	—	+0.193	Hard	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.273	+0.133	+0.512	Hard	22
Jack Miller	1:40.284	+0.144	+0.105	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:40.579	+0.439	+0.226	Hard	23
Pol Espargaro	1:40.615	+0.475	+0.406	Hard	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:40.644	+0.504	+0.359	Hard	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.661	+0.521	+0.209	Hard	23
Stefan Bradl	1:40.674	+0.534	+0.530	Hard	23
Alex Marquez	1:40.698	+0.558	+0.356	Hard	23
Johann Zarco	1:40.748	+0.608	+0.344	Hard	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2020Miguel OliveiraKTM
2012Casey StonerHonda
2011Daniel PedrosaHonda

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	6/20	30%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	5/21	24%
2020	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	100%	+0.63%	−0.004	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.