MotoGP World Championship

2026 season

Championship

The title fight

Standings

After round 15

#	Rider	Points	Gap	Wins	Podiums
1	Jorge Martin	306	—	1	7
2	Marc Marquez	294	−12	5	5
3	Marco Bezzecchi	264	−42	4	9
4	Pedro Acosta	234	−72	1	6
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	230	−76	1	3
6	Ai Ogura	222	−84	1	4
7	Raul Fernandez	203	−103	1	4
8	Alex Marquez	158	−148	1	2
9	Francesco Bagnaia	156	−150	0	4
10	Fermin Aldeguer	115	−191	0	1
11	Luca Marini	97	−209	0	0
12	Enea Bastianini	97	−209	0	0
13	Brad Binder	96	−210	0	0
14	Diogo Moreira	65	−241	0	0
15	Fabio Quartararo	65	−241	0	0
16	Franco Morbidelli	56	−250	0	0
17	Johann Zarco	45	−261	0	0
18	Joan Mir	33	−273	0	0
19	Jack Miller	27	−279	0	0
20	Alex Rins	23	−283	0	0
21	Toprak Razgatlioglu	17	−289	0	0
22	Maverick Viñales	10	−296	0	0
23	Iker Lecuona	9	−297	0	0
24	Augusto Fernandez	5	−301	0	0
25	Pol Espargaro	4	−302	0	0
26	Takaaki Nakagami	3	−303	0	0
27	Lorenzo Savadori	0	−306	0	0
28	Jonas Folger	0	−306	0	0
29	Cal Crutchlow	0	−306	0	0
30	Michele Pirro	0	−306	0	0

If it carries on: the title

If the season carries on as it has so far, who wins the title? We simulate the remaining races 10,000 times.

Rider	Points	P(title)	Expected points	Points range	Can win
Marc Marquez	294	70–78%	470	441–499	✓
Jorge Martin	306	23–29%	445	419–471	✓
Marco Bezzecchi	264	0–2%	382	348–416	✓
Pedro Acosta	234	<1%	343	315–372	✓
Fabio Di Giannantonio	230	<1%	320	300–341	✓
Ai Ogura	222	<1%	345	316–373	✓
Raul Fernandez	203	<1%	286	259–314	✓
Alex Marquez	158	<1%	256	227–286	✓

Not a calibrated forecast: it is "if things carry on like this". The range goes from the version that weighs the whole year to the one that weighs recent form (and discounts races ridden injured); with small gaps, the answer depends on that choice. 7 races and 7 sprints left.

How the title fight has evolved

Solid line: whole year. Dashed line: recent form. Each point uses only what was known after that round. Starts at round 3 (before that, with one or two races, it shows 100 or 0).

Season

Calendar and winners

Calendar

R	GP	Date	Race	Sprint
1	Thailand Grand Prix	01.03	Marco Bezzecchi	Pedro Acosta
2	Brazilian Grand Prix	22.03	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez
3	United States Grand Prix	29.03	Marco Bezzecchi	Jorge Martin
4	Spanish Grand Prix	26.04	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez
5	French Grand Prix	10.05	Jorge Martin	Jorge Martin
6	Catalan Grand Prix	17.05	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Alex Marquez
7	Italian Grand Prix	31.05	Marco Bezzecchi	Raul Fernandez
8	Hungarian Grand Prix	07.06	Marc Marquez	Marc Marquez
9	Czech Grand Prix	21.06	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia
10	Dutch TT	28.06	Ai Ogura	Raul Fernandez
11	German Grand Prix	12.07	Marc Marquez	Marc Marquez
12	British Grand Prix	09.08	Raul Fernandez	Jorge Martin
13	Aragon Grand Prix	30.08	Marc Marquez	Marc Marquez
14	San Marino Grand Prix	13.09	Marc Marquez	Marc Marquez
15	Austrian Grand Prix	20.09	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin
16	Japanese Grand Prix	04.10
17	Indonesian Grand Prix	11.10
18	Australian Grand Prix	25.10
19	Malaysian Grand Prix	01.11
20	Qatar Grand Prix	08.11
21	Portuguese Grand Prix	22.11
22	Valencia Grand Prix	29.11

How predictable the year is

0.79

Grid ↔ result

historical avg. 0.78

27%

Pole wins

historical avg. 39%

Different winners

historical avg. 5.7

20%

Retirements

historical avg. 19%

Over 15 races this season. The higher the grid ↔ result correlation, the more predictable the year.

Grid

Teams, injuries and brands

Teammates

Team	Teammates	Race	Sprint	Grid	Points
Aprilia Racing	Jorge Martin – Marco Bezzecchi	5–7	8–5	6–9	306–264
Ducati Lenovo Team	Marc Marquez – Francesco Bagnaia	10–2	11–3	10–4	294–156
Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Ai Ogura – Raul Fernandez	10–3	7–6	6–7	222–203
Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Pedro Acosta – Brad Binder	12–3	12–3	15–0	234–96
Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Fabio Di Giannantonio – Franco Morbidelli	14–1	12–3	14–1	230–56
BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	Alex Marquez – Fermin Aldeguer	5–3	7–1	6–3	158–115
Honda HRC Castrol	Luca Marini – Joan Mir	11–3	9–5	2–12	97–33
Red Bull KTM Tech3	Enea Bastianini – Maverick Viñales	6–2	7–1	5–3	97–10
Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Fabio Quartararo – Alex Rins	11–3	12–3	14–1	65–23
Castrol Honda LCR	Johann Zarco – Cal Crutchlow	0–0	0–0	0–0	45–0
Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Jack Miller – Toprak Razgatlioglu	8–7	9–6	11–4	27–17

Who finishes ahead in the races both started; a retirement loses to a classified finish. With fewer than 8 races together it is only indicative.

Injuries and absences

Rider	Detail
Ai Ogura	Absent: ARA, RSM · Comeback: AUT, JPN
Alex Marquez	Absent: ITA, HUN, CZE · Comeback: NED, GER
Augusto Fernandez	Absent: FRA, ITA, HUN, CZE, GER · Comeback: CAT, NED, GBR, ARA
Fermin Aldeguer	Absent: NED, GER, GBR · Comeback: ARA, RSM
Johann Zarco	Absent: ITA, HUN, CZE, NED, GER, GBR · Comeback: ARA, RSM
Marc Marquez	Riding injured: THA, BRA, USA, SPA, FRA · Absent: CAT · Comeback: ITA, HUN
Marco Bezzecchi	Absent: GER · Comeback: GBR, ARA
Maverick Viñales	Absent: USA, SPA, FRA · Comeback: CAT, ITA

Absences are detected automatically (no result between two weekends raced). Riding injured only shows when it has been logged by hand.

Brands

Bike	Top speed max km/h	Top speed median km/h	Beats the grid
APRILIA	368.6	315.7	+1.75
HONDA	367.3	314.4	−0.17
KTM	367.3	314.4	+1.24
DUCATI	366.1	315.5	+0.24
YAMAHA	362.4	309.6	−1.67

Top speed: the bike separates the brands. Beats the grid: average positions gained versus what the grid says.