Round 7 of 18 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2021

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

04.06 – 06.06.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	40:21.749	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+0.175	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.990	16
4	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.325	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+6.281	11
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+7.815	10
7	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.175	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.378	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+15.652	7
10	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+19.297	6
11	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+21.650	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+22.533	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+27.833	3
14	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+29.075	2
15	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+40.291	1
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 31%	Miguel Oliveira · 11% · from P4	0.80 / 0.80	2.2 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:40.614	—	+0.210	Medium	5
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.614	—	+0.275	Hard	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.640	+0.026	+0.209	Soft	8
Johann Zarco	1:40.665	+0.051	+0.344	Hard	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.686	+0.072	+0.193	Hard	22
Maverick Viñales	1:40.781	+0.167	+0.292	Medium	20
Jack Miller	1:40.816	+0.202	+0.105	Hard	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.829	+0.215	+0.221	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:40.900	+0.286	+0.562	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:40.904	+0.290	+0.327	Hard	22
Iker Lecuona	1:40.957	+0.343	+0.094	Hard	12
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.124	+0.510	+0.359	Medium	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:41.194	+0.580	+0.512	Hard	22
Valentino Rossi	1:41.199	+0.585	+0.508	Hard	13
Enea Bastianini	1:41.294	+0.680	+0.319	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:41.314	+0.700	+0.356	Soft	21
Luca Marini	1:41.365	+0.751	+0.308	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:41.524	+0.910	+0.457	Medium	20
Lorenzo Savadori	1:42.036	+1.422	+0.781	Hard	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

21/24

Laps led by the winner

Miguel Oliveira

0.175 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P20 to P11.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Francesco Bagnaia (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	12:37:45	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out in warmup lap
Race	13:01:54		Jump start	Jump start
Race	13:08:22	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:10:15	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:13:26	Takaaki Nakagami	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-T2
Race	13:13:51	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:16:56	Takaaki Nakagami	Long lap	Long lap penalty - failed to comply with long lap penalty
Race	13:18:53	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:27:26	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:29:20	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:43:15	Fabio Quartararo	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T1-T2
Race	18:00:00	Fabio Quartararo	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty due to infringement of Article 2.4.5.2

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	20	14	+6
Joan Mir	10	4	+6
Iker Lecuona	16	11	+5
Valentino Rossi	11	16	−5
Franco Morbidelli	5	10	−5
Jorge Martin	15	19	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	10→4	+4.6
Alex Marquez	20→11	+4.0
Miguel Oliveira	4→1	+3.8
Jorge Martin	15→14	−2.2
Fabio Quartararo	1→6	−3.2
Franco Morbidelli	5→9	−3.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	48%	+0.31%	+0.032	1	3	6.3
Medium	43%	+0.51%	+0.055	0	0	9.3
Soft	10%	+0.36%	−0.001	0	0	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 24.5 °C

54%

Humidity

0.8 mm

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 38 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.378	—	18	347.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.745	+0.82%	5	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.402	+0.024	19	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.918	—	5	Medium
3	Pol Espargaro	01:40.751	+0.373	19	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.310	+0.39%	10	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:40.753	+0.375	24	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.729	+0.80%	19	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:40.767	+0.389	19	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.632	+0.71%	6	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.853	+0.475	20	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.960	+0.04%	12	Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.927	+0.549	18	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:40.960	+0.582	16	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.722	+0.80%	5	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:40.991	+0.613	20	352.9	Soft / Medium	1:41.534	+0.61%	8	Medium
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.085	+0.707	18	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:41.604	+0.68%	6	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.134	+0.756	20	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:41.618	+0.69%	12	Medium
12	Jorge Martin	01:41.185	+0.807	15	350.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Marc Marquez	01:41.208	+0.830	20	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.092	+1.16%	10	Medium
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:41.254	+0.876	20	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:42.397	+1.47%	10	Medium
15	Valentino Rossi	01:41.267	+0.889	20	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.072	+1.14%	12	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	01:41.357	+0.979	18	340.6	Soft / Medium	1:41.760	+0.83%	5	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:41.363	+0.985	19	345.0	missing / missing	1:42.399	+1.47%	14	missing
18	Alex Marquez	01:41.437	+1.059	21	347.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.159	+1.23%	15	Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:41.464	+1.086	19	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:42.278	+1.35%	10	Medium
20	Brad Binder	01:41.512	+1.134	19	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.972	+1.04%	10	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.744	+1.366	18	341.7	Soft / Medium	1:44.020	+3.07%	5	Medium

FP2 · 04.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:39.235	—	18	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:41.288	+0.84%	10	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.256	+0.021	18	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:40.446	+0.00%	7	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.401	+0.166	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.455	+0.01%	11	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:39.662	+0.427	17	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.782	+0.34%	5	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.760	+0.525	17	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:41.209	+0.76%	6	Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:39.821	+0.586	19	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.530	+0.09%	6	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:39.914	+0.679	19	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:41.146	+0.70%	12	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:39.977	+0.742	16	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:40.750	+0.31%	4	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.983	+0.748	19	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.700	+0.26%	8	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:39.983	+0.748	18	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.032	+0.797	19	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:41.363	+0.92%	6	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.060	+0.825	19	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:41.559	+1.11%	5	Medium
13	Luca Marini	01:40.094	+0.859	18	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:42.156	+1.70%	5	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.096	+0.861	21	346.1	Hard / Hard	1:40.707	+0.26%	9	Soft
15	Marc Marquez	01:40.120	+0.885	21	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.390	+0.94%	10	Soft
16	Joan Mir	01:40.150	+0.915	20	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:40.444	—	8	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:40.251	+1.016	17	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:40.642	+0.20%	5	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:40.690	+1.455	21	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:41.520	+1.07%	11	Medium
19	Valentino Rossi	01:40.836	+1.601	18	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.981	+1.746	16	340.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Jorge Martin	01:41.243	+2.008	17	348.3	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP3 · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.929	—	17	340.6	Medium / Soft	1:40.034	+0.17%	6	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.975	+0.046	19	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:40.945	+1.08%	8	Medium
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.051	+0.122	19	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.073	+0.144	18	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:40.254	+0.39%	6	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.079	+0.150	18	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.804	+0.94%	7	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:39.166	+0.237	19	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:40.297	+0.43%	8	Hard
7	Maverick Viñales	01:39.282	+0.353	20	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:39.867	—	6	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:39.324	+0.395	19	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Valentino Rossi	01:39.426	+0.497	21	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:41.020	+1.16%	6	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:39.495	+0.566	18	351.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.024	+1.16%	6	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.498	+0.569	18	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	01:39.519	+0.590	19	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.689	+0.760	19	342.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Marc Marquez	01:39.701	+0.772	20	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Johann Zarco	01:39.760	+0.831	20	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:40.326	+0.46%	6	Medium
16	Jorge Martin	01:39.816	+0.887	15	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Iker Lecuona	01:39.918	+0.989	21	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:40.762	+0.90%	10	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:39.928	+0.999	21	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.276	+1.41%	5	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:40.075	+1.146	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:41.281	+1.42%	9	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	01:40.743	+1.814	16	347.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.180	+2.251	13	342.8	Medium / Hard	—			—

FP4 · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:39.602	—	15	342.8	Medium / Hard	1:39.661	—	5	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:40.028	+0.426	16	341.7	Medium / Hard	1:40.245	+0.59%	6	Hard
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.073	+0.471	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	1:40.415	+0.76%	7	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:40.286	+0.684	15	350.6	Medium / Hard	1:40.775	+1.12%	5	Hard
5	Joan Mir	01:40.380	+0.778	15	342.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:40.425	+0.823	15	346.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:40.437	+0.835	16	342.8	Medium / Hard	1:41.077	+1.42%	7	Hard
8	Pol Espargaro	01:40.454	+0.852	13	346.1	Hard / Hard	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:40.469	+0.867	18	355.2	Medium / Hard	1:40.758	+1.10%	15	Hard
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:40.534	+0.932	16	343.9	Hard / Hard	1:40.900	+1.24%	11	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.565	+0.963	13	348.3	Medium / Hard	1:41.323	+1.67%	5	Hard
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.643	+1.041	15	342.8	Hard / Hard	1:41.101	+1.45%	7	Hard
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:40.704	+1.102	14	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:41.030	+1.37%	5	Hard
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:40.717	+1.115	12	341.7	Hard / Medium	1:41.050	+1.39%	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:40.741	+1.139	12	340.6	Hard / Hard	1:41.033	+1.38%	5	Hard
16	Brad Binder	01:40.741	+1.139	15	348.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
17	Enea Bastianini	01:40.782	+1.180	14	349.5	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Jorge Martin	01:40.887	+1.285	9	348.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
19	Luca Marini	01:40.962	+1.360	12	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:40.995	+1.393	15	343.9	Hard / Medium	1:41.761	+2.11%	5	Hard
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.465	+1.863	11	340.6	Medium / Hard	—			—

Q1 · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:39.153	—	8	350.6	Soft / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:39.170	+0.017	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:39.181	+0.028	7	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.347	+0.194	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:39.532	+0.379	7	351.7	Medium / Soft
6	Iker Lecuona	01:39.567	+0.414	5	342.8	Hard / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:39.590	+0.437	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:39.744	+0.591	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:39.942	+0.789	8	345.0	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:40.009	+0.856	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.158	+1.005	6	338.5	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 05.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.853	—	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:38.890	+0.037	5	352.9	Soft / Soft
3	Johann Zarco	01:39.049	+0.196	8	350.6	Medium / Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:39.099	+0.246	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.109	+0.256	8	337.5	Medium / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:39.157	+0.304	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:39.218	+0.365	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:39.343	+0.490	8	347.2	Medium / Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:39.359	+0.506	8	348.3	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:39.431	+0.578	8	343.9	Medium / Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:39.605	+0.752	6	343.9	Soft / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:41.791	+2.938	2	348.3	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 06.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.783	—	11	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.642	+0.63%	6	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:39.819	+0.036	10	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.014	—	8	Medium
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:39.850	+0.067	12	336.4	Soft / Medium	1:40.198	+0.18%	8	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:39.874	+0.091	12	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:40.981	+0.97%	9	Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:40.056	+0.273	12	341.7	Soft / Hard	1:40.232	+0.22%	8	Hard
6	Pol Espargaro	01:40.142	+0.359	12	345.0	Medium / Medium	1:41.646	+1.63%	10	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.203	+0.420	12	349.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.636	+0.62%	9	Medium
8	Marc Marquez	01:40.286	+0.503	11	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:41.625	+1.61%	6	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:40.311	+0.528	11	343.9	Soft / Medium	1:40.588	+0.57%	6	Medium
10	Valentino Rossi	01:40.350	+0.567	12	340.6	Medium / Hard	1:40.881	+0.87%	8	Hard
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:40.436	+0.653	11	341.7	Medium / Hard	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:40.641	+0.858	12	346.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.972	+0.96%	8	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	01:40.646	+0.863	9	347.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Jack Miller	01:40.653	+0.870	12	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.663	+0.880	12	343.9	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Iker Lecuona	01:40.729	+0.946	12	342.8	Medium / Hard	1:41.930	+1.92%	6	Hard
17	Brad Binder	01:40.742	+0.959	11	346.1	Medium / Hard	1:41.362	+1.35%	8	Hard
18	Alex Marquez	01:40.781	+0.998	11	342.8	Medium / Soft	1:40.916	+0.90%	5	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:40.799	+1.016	11	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:41.153	+1.14%	6	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.070	+1.287	12	342.8	Medium / Medium	1:41.411	+1.40%	6	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.530	+1.747	11	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:42.608	+2.59%	6	Medium

Race · 06.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	40:21.749	25	24	Hard / Hard	1:40.686	+0.07%	22	Hard
2	Johann Zarco	+0.175	20	24	Medium / Hard	1:40.665	+0.05%	21	Hard
3	Jack Miller	+1.990	16	24	Medium / Hard	1:40.816	+0.20%	22	Hard
4	Joan Mir	+5.325	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.900	+0.28%	21	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	+6.281	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.781	+0.17%	20	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	+7.815	10	24	Medium / Hard	1:40.614	—	20	Hard
7	Francesco Bagnaia	+8.175	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:40.829	+0.21%	21	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+8.378	8	24	Hard / Hard	1:40.904	+0.29%	22	Hard
9	Franco Morbidelli	+15.652	7	24	Medium / Hard	1:41.194	+0.58%	22	Hard
10	Enea Bastianini	+19.297	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.294	+0.68%	22	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	+21.650	5	24	Medium / Soft	1:41.314	+0.70%	21	Soft
12	Luca Marini	+22.533	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.365	+0.75%	21	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+27.833	3	24	Hard / Medium	1:41.124	+0.51%	19	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	+29.075	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:41.524	+0.90%	20	Medium
15	Lorenzo Savadori	+40.291	1	24	Medium / Hard	1:42.036	+1.41%	22	Hard
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	10	Medium / Soft	1:40.640	+0.03%	8	Soft
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	5	Hard / Hard	—			—
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	16	Medium / Hard	1:40.957	+0.34%	12	Hard
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	7	Hard / Medium	1:40.614	—	5	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	15	Medium / Hard	1:41.199	+0.58%	13	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Takaaki Nakagami	1:39.916*	—	+0.359	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:40.161*	+0.245	+0.221	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:40.326	+0.410	+0.344	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.577	+0.661	+0.275	Medium	5
Pol Espargaro	1:40.639	+0.723	+0.406	Medium	6
Marc Marquez	1:40.652	+0.736	+0.210	Medium	6
Aleix Espargaro	1:40.700	+0.784	+0.209	Medium	8
Iker Lecuona	1:40.758	+0.842	+0.094	Medium	15
Valentino Rossi	1:40.795	+0.879	+0.508	Medium	7
Maverick Viñales	1:40.863*	+0.947	+0.292	Medium	4
Danilo Petrucci	1:40.930	+1.014	+0.574	Medium	9
Enea Bastianini	1:40.972	+1.056	+0.319	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.973*	+1.057	+0.512	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:41.023	+1.107	+0.308	Medium	15
Jack Miller	1:41.146*	+1.230	+0.105	Medium	4
Jorge Martin	1:41.184	+1.268	+0.457	Medium	8
Brad Binder	1:41.223*	+1.307	+0.327	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:41.624*	+1.708	+0.356	Medium	4
Lorenzo Savadori	1:41.802	+1.886	+0.781	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jack Miller	57%	1 ✓
2	Takaaki Nakagami	43%	4
3	Pol Espargaro	32%	2 ✓
4	Danilo Petrucci	20%	8
5	Marc Marquez	17%	3
6	Jorge Martin	10%	5
7	Iker Lecuona	8%	6
8	Alex Marquez	4%	10
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	7
10	Luca Marini	3%	9
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Franco Morbidelli	36%	69%	92%	5
2	Fabio Quartararo	27%	52%	84%	1
3	Miguel Oliveira	16%	49%	80%	4
4	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	32%	69%	9
5	Aleix Espargaro	3%	27%	54%	7
6	Brad Binder	6%	21%	55%	8
7	Johann Zarco	1%	12%	43%	3
8	Maverick Viñales	2%	11%	35%	6
9	Joan Mir	1%	8%	28%	10
10	Valentino Rossi	2%	8%	21%	11
11	Jack Miller	1%	10%	25%	2
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	2%	16%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	31%	60%	73%	83%	16%	6
Jack Miller	2	19%	45%	62%	73%	25%	3
Johann Zarco	3	14%	45%	64%	80%	17%	2
Miguel Oliveira	4	11%	38%	60%	81%	15%	1
Franco Morbidelli	5	7%	28%	49%	76%	18%	9
Maverick Viñales	6	7%	26%	49%	83%	11%	5
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	16%	33%	65%	26%	—
Brad Binder	8	3%	12%	28%	65%	24%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	9	2%	7%	18%	51%	35%	7
Joan Mir	10	1%	7%	17%	60%	19%	4
Valentino Rossi	11	1%	5%	14%	60%	12%	—
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	4%	9%	47%	20%	—
Marc Marquez	13	1%	3%	9%	44%	15%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	15%	13
Jorge Martin	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	15%	14
Iker Lecuona	16	0%	1%	3%	20%	30%	—
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	1%	14%	26%	10
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	19%	—
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	10%	12
Alex Marquez	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	24%	11
Lorenzo Savadori	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	28%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,669 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.58%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%	Aleix Espargaro +0.46%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.46%	Fabio Quartararo +0.47%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Francesco Bagnaia +0.53%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.78%
S2	Alex Marquez	Joan Mir +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%
S3	Pedro Acosta +0.02%	Brad Binder +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.43%
S4	Joan Mir +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.45%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.51%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Johann Zarco +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.03%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.37%	Brad Binder +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Brad Binder +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.13%
S4	Raul Fernandez	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Brad Binder +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.14%	Brad Binder +0.27%
S2	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S3	Miguel Oliveira +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro	Miguel Oliveira +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.19%	Enea Bastianini +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.44%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%
S3	Alex Rins +0.21%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jorge Martin +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jorge Martin +0.57%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Johann Zarco	Miguel Oliveira +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.40%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.38%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.38%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jack Miller +0.41%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.34%
S3	Valentino Rossi +0.22%	Pol Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Valentino Rossi +0.16%	Brad Binder +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Joan Mir +0.33%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.34%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.18%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Valentino Rossi +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.19%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo +0.15%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Andrea Iannone	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.12%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.19%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

52/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

44%

Front row on the podium

0.71

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 86% of the time (between 49% and 97%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	105	—
2	Johann Zarco	81	−24
3	Francesco Bagnaia	79	−26
4	Jack Miller	74	−31
5	Joan Mir	65	−40
6	Maverick Viñales	64	−41

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/24

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

0.928 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P13 to P3.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Cal Crutchlow (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Valentino Rossi	1:40.602	—	+0.508	Soft	13
Franco Morbidelli	1:40.771	+0.169	+0.512	Soft	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:40.774	+0.172	+0.275	Soft	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:40.919	+0.317	+0.193	Soft	15
Joan Mir	1:40.931	+0.329	+0.562	Soft	22
Alex Rins	1:41.002	+0.400	+0.217	Soft	22
Pol Espargaro	1:41.003	+0.401	+0.406	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:41.159	+0.557	+0.359	Soft	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:41.166	+0.564	+0.574	Soft	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:41.170	+0.568	+0.221	Soft	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Fabio Di GiannantonioDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Miguel OliveiraKTM
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 25% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/22	23%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.58%	+0.077	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.