Round 9 of 18 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2021

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

25.06 – 27.06.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	40:35.031	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.757	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+5.760	16
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+6.130	13
5	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.402	11
6	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.035	10
7	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.110	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+10.346	8
9	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+12.225	7
10	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+18.565	6
11	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+21.372	5
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+21.676	4
13	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+27.783	3
14	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+29.772	2
15	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+32.785	1
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+37.573	0
17	Garrett Gerloff	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+53.213	0
18	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+66.791	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Maverick Viñales · 31%	Fabio Quartararo · 22% · from P2	0.74 / 0.74	2.6 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.346	—	+0.275	Hard	23
Maverick Viñales	1:33.450	+0.104	+0.292	Hard	20
Joan Mir	1:33.561	+0.215	+0.562	Hard	22
Johann Zarco	1:33.618	+0.272	+0.344	Hard	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.650	+0.304	+0.193	Hard	24
Jack Miller	1:33.685	+0.339	+0.105	Hard	13
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.700	+0.354	+0.209	Medium	24
Marc Marquez	1:33.702	+0.356	+0.210	Soft	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.709	+0.363	+0.221	Hard	18
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.761	+0.415	+0.359	Medium	20
Alex Rins	1:33.778	+0.432	+0.217	Hard	23
Iker Lecuona	1:33.959	+0.613	+0.094	Medium	14
Pol Espargaro	1:34.038	+0.692	+0.406	Soft	22
Brad Binder	1:34.077	+0.731	+0.327	Hard	22
Danilo Petrucci	1:34.277	+0.931	+0.574	Hard	23
Alex Marquez	1:34.414	+1.068	+0.356	Soft	21
Jorge Martin	1:34.427	+1.081	+0.457	Medium	9
Enea Bastianini	1:34.520	+1.174	+0.319	Hard	24
Valentino Rossi	1:34.700	+1.354	+0.508	Hard	4
Lorenzo Savadori	1:34.750	+1.404	+0.781	Hard	22
Garrett Gerloff	1:35.188	+1.842	—	Hard	20
Luca Marini	1:35.828	+2.482	+0.308	Medium	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/26

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

2.757 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P20 to P7.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Miguel Oliveira (17 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:26		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:12:33	Valentino Rossi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:55	Francesco Bagnaia	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:22:51	Jorge Martin	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:23:02	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:28:09		Red flag	Jack MILLER black flag with orange disc
Race	14:29:41	Jack Miller	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:30:29	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 5 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marc Marquez	20	12	+8
Enea Bastianini	19	16	+3
Brad Binder	21	18	+3
Valentino Rossi	12	21	−9
Lorenzo Savadori	15	20	−5
Maverick Viñales	1	4	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	20→7	+8.0
Joan Mir	10→3	+5.6
Brad Binder	21→12	+3.7
Takaaki Nakagami	4→9	−4.2
Alex Rins	7→11	−4.3
Luca Marini	17→18	−4.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	64%	+0.43%	−0.008	1	3	8.8
Medium	23%	+0.66%	+0.007	0	0	11.7
Soft	14%	+0.74%	+0.009	0	0	10.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.1 °C

Air

max 24.4 °C

64%

Humidity

0.6 mm

Rain

15 km/h

Wind

gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:33.072	—	23	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:35.800	+1.60%	10	Medium
2	Pol Espargaro	01:33.183	+0.111	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.997	+0.75%	5	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:33.501	+0.429	21	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:35.389	+1.17%	11	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.633	+0.561	19	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.290	—	10	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:33.887	+0.815	19	308.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.939	+0.867	20	300.7	Soft / Hard	1:35.547	+1.33%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.993	+0.921	19	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:36.464	+2.31%	5	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.004	+0.932	21	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.327	+1.10%	5	Medium
9	Marc Marquez	01:34.048	+0.976	21	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:38.791	+4.77%	5	Medium
10	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.098	+1.026	19	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:35.670	+1.46%	5	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:34.245	+1.173	21	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:35.451	+1.23%	13	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:34.265	+1.193	23	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:36.458	+2.30%	9	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:34.299	+1.227	19	304.4	Soft / Medium	1:36.015	+1.83%	5	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:34.422	+1.350	21	307.5	Medium / Medium	1:35.504	+1.29%	10	Medium
15	Valentino Rossi	01:34.431	+1.359	22	302.9	Soft / Medium	1:35.874	+1.68%	5	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:34.491	+1.419	21	306.7	Medium / Hard	1:36.589	+2.44%	12	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:34.510	+1.438	20	306.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:34.916	+1.844	22	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:35.713	+1.51%	6	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:35.253	+2.181	20	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:37.473	+3.38%	13	Medium
20	Jorge Martin	01:35.292	+2.220	19	307.5	Soft / Medium	1:35.903	+1.71%	6	Medium
21	Luca Marini	01:35.506	+2.434	20	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:38.234	+4.18%	5	Medium
22	Garrett Gerloff	01:35.961	+2.889	15	297.0	Medium / Medium	1:37.793	+3.72%	7	Medium

FP2 · 25.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:33.241	—	14	300.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.400	+0.159	12	306.7	Medium / Hard	1:34.628	+0.18%	5	Hard
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:33.491	+0.250	13	297.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:33.560	+0.319	4	308.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Joan Mir	01:33.701	+0.460	11	304.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:33.708	+0.467	12	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.630	+0.18%	5	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:33.960	+0.719	15	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:41.496	+7.45%	10	Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:34.066	+0.825	7	309.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.081	+0.840	8	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:35.482	+1.08%	5	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:34.096	+0.855	9	306.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.134	+0.893	11	299.2	Medium / Medium	1:34.459	—	5	Medium
12	Jorge Martin	01:34.339	+1.098	13	308.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Alex Marquez	01:34.358	+1.117	13	307.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.461	+1.220	14	299.2	Medium / Soft	1:45.818	+12.03%	4	Wet-Soft
15	Iker Lecuona	01:34.539	+1.298	12	299.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:34.658	+1.417	12	305.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:34.766	+1.525	11	302.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Valentino Rossi	01:34.777	+1.536	11	297.8	Medium / Hard	—			—
19	Francesco Bagnaia	01:34.832	+1.591	7	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:35.726	+2.485	9	300.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Garrett Gerloff	01:35.744	+2.503	12	295.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:36.216	+2.975	12	300.0	Medium / Medium	1:38.707	+4.50%	5	Medium

FP3 · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:32.336	—	23	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.270	—	9	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.533	+0.197	21	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.478	+0.22%	8	Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:32.641	+0.305	21	311.4	Soft / Soft	1:33.529	+0.28%	10	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.747	+0.411	19	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.102	+0.89%	4	Medium
5	Joan Mir	01:32.748	+0.412	21	307.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Alex Rins	01:32.845	+0.509	23	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.043	+0.83%	10	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.853	+0.517	20	307.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.871	+0.535	20	308.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.894	+0.558	19	302.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:32.907	+0.571	20	313.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:32.938	+0.602	16	312.2	Soft / Soft	1:35.563	+2.46%	4	Medium
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.941	+0.605	22	315.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.657	+1.49%	5	Soft
13	Jorge Martin	01:32.974	+0.638	19	313.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.026	+0.690	20	302.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	01:33.069	+0.733	18	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.696	+2.60%	5	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:33.087	+0.751	22	309.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.474	+1.29%	9	Hard
17	Alex Marquez	01:33.250	+0.914	21	312.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.864	+1.71%	7	Soft
18	Iker Lecuona	01:33.356	+1.020	18	305.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.397	+1.21%	6	Medium
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.368	+1.032	18	306.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:33.465	+1.129	21	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.298	+2.17%	10	Soft
21	Enea Bastianini	01:33.853	+1.517	22	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.566	+2.46%	10	Soft
22	Garrett Gerloff	01:34.254	+1.918	21	300.7	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.513	—	16	304.4	Medium / Hard	1:32.914	—	11	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.717	+0.204	17	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.176	+0.28%	8	Medium
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.945	+0.432	17	308.3	Medium / Hard	1:33.863	+1.02%	12	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.949	+0.436	17	306.7	Medium / Medium	1:33.990	+1.16%	10	Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:33.041	+0.528	17	306.0	Medium / Hard	1:33.820	+0.98%	13	Hard
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.103	+0.590	17	309.8	Medium / Medium	1:34.668	+1.89%	5	Hard
7	Alex Rins	01:33.134	+0.621	15	306.0	Medium / Hard	1:33.538	+0.67%	12	Hard
8	Marc Marquez	01:33.164	+0.651	15	311.4	Medium / Soft	1:33.730	+0.88%	10	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:33.255	+0.742	15	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.465	+1.67%	5	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:33.265	+0.752	15	311.4	Medium / Hard	1:34.420	+1.62%	7	Hard
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.278	+0.765	14	313.0	Medium / Hard	1:33.662	+0.81%	6	Hard
12	Valentino Rossi	01:33.280	+0.767	17	302.9	Medium / Hard	1:34.053	+1.23%	13	Hard
13	Alex Marquez	01:33.677	+1.164	16	313.0	Medium / Hard	1:34.191	+1.37%	6	Soft
14	Jorge Martin	01:33.678	+1.165	15	311.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.240	+1.43%	6	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	01:33.682	+1.169	11	306.7	Medium / Hard	1:34.092	+1.27%	6	Hard
16	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.812	+1.299	13	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.358	+1.55%	5	Soft
17	Jack Miller	01:33.856	+1.343	17	310.6	Medium / Hard	1:34.362	+1.56%	13	Hard
18	Enea Bastianini	01:34.161	+1.648	10	310.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Brad Binder	01:34.265	+1.752	13	307.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.739	+1.96%	5	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.421	+1.908	8	304.4	Medium / Hard	—			—
21	Luca Marini	01:34.447	+1.934	13	308.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.672	+1.89%	5	Medium
22	Garrett Gerloff	01:34.499	+1.986	16	299.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.736	+1.96%	6	Soft

Q1 · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:32.541	—	6	309.8	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.657	+0.116	7	312.2	Medium / Soft
3	Iker Lecuona	01:32.724	+0.183	9	309.8	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:32.850	+0.309	8	317.0	Medium / Soft
5	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.258	+0.717	7	305.2	Medium / Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:33.288	+0.747	8	311.4	Medium / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:33.321	+0.780	7	309.0	Soft / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.378	+0.837	8	305.2	Medium / Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:33.404	+0.863	8	312.2	Medium / Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:33.477	+0.936	6	310.6	Medium / Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:33.597	+1.056	8	307.5	Medium / Soft
12	Garrett Gerloff	01:33.739	+1.198	8	300.0	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 26.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:31.814	—	8	306.7	Soft / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.885	+0.071	7	306.7	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.116	+0.302	7	313.0	Medium / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.314	+0.500	9	309.8	Medium / Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:32.394	+0.580	7	315.4	Medium / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.450	+0.636	8	310.6	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:32.597	+0.783	8	308.3	Soft / Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:32.609	+0.795	8	313.0	Medium / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.666	+0.852	8	309.8	Medium / Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:32.748	+0.934	9	306.7	Medium / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:32.830	+1.016	8	312.2	Soft / Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:32.919	+1.105	9	305.2	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 27.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:32.569	—	12	306.7	— / —	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.898	+0.329	12	305.2	— / —	—			—
3	Alex Rins	01:32.924	+0.355	12	309.8	Medium / Hard	1:33.640	—	7	Hard
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.950	+0.381	12	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.770	+0.14%	7	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:32.996	+0.427	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.142	+0.54%	6	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:33.088	+0.519	13	314.6	— / —	—			—
7	Pol Espargaro	01:33.228	+0.659	13	313.8	— / —	—			—
8	Iker Lecuona	01:33.270	+0.701	13	306.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.326	+0.757	11	314.6	Medium / Hard	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	01:33.355	+0.786	13	306.0	Soft / Hard	1:34.019	+0.41%	9	Hard
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.356	+0.787	13	306.0	Soft / Hard	1:34.125	+0.52%	5	Hard
12	Joan Mir	01:33.422	+0.853	11	306.0	— / —	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:33.450	+0.881	12	312.2	— / —	—			—
14	Brad Binder	01:33.719	+1.150	13	309.8	Medium / Hard	1:34.863	+1.31%	6	Hard
15	Alex Marquez	01:33.809	+1.240	12	312.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.581	+1.01%	5	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.891	+1.322	13	310.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.705	+1.14%	9	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.957	+1.388	10	310.6	Soft / Hard	—			—
18	Garrett Gerloff	01:34.134	+1.565	13	305.2	— / —	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.144	+1.575	11	305.2	— / —	—			—
20	Enea Bastianini	01:34.186	+1.617	13	311.4	Medium / Hard	1:35.276	+1.75%	10	Hard
21	Luca Marini	01:34.308	+1.739	12	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:34.896	+1.34%	6	Medium
22	Jorge Martin	01:34.439	+1.870	11	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 27.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	40:35.031	25	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.346	—	23	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	+2.757	20	26	Soft / Hard	1:33.450	+0.11%	20	Hard
3	Joan Mir	+5.760	16	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.561	+0.23%	22	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	+6.130	13	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.618	+0.29%	23	Hard
5	Miguel Oliveira	+8.402	11	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.650	+0.33%	24	Hard
6	Francesco Bagnaia	+10.035	10	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.709	+0.39%	18	Hard
7	Marc Marquez	+10.110	9	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.702	+0.38%	23	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	+10.346	8	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.700	+0.38%	24	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	+12.225	7	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.761	+0.45%	20	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	+18.565	6	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.038	+0.74%	22	Soft
11	Alex Rins	+21.372	5	26	Medium / Hard	1:33.778	+0.46%	23	Hard
12	Brad Binder	+21.676	4	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.077	+0.78%	22	Hard
13	Danilo Petrucci	+27.783	3	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.277	+1.00%	23	Hard
14	Alex Marquez	+29.772	2	26	Medium / Soft	1:34.414	+1.14%	21	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	+32.785	1	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.520	+1.26%	24	Hard
16	Lorenzo Savadori	+37.573	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:34.750	+1.50%	22	Hard
17	Garrett Gerloff	+53.213	0	26	Medium / Hard	1:35.188	+1.97%	20	Hard
18	Luca Marini	+66.791	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:35.828	+2.66%	24	Medium
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	18	Medium / Medium	1:33.959	+0.66%	14	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	18	Medium / Hard	1:33.685	+0.36%	13	Hard
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	14	Medium / Medium	1:34.427	+1.16%	9	Medium
Retired	Valentino Rossi		0	7	Medium / Hard	1:34.700	+1.45%	4	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.560	—	+0.209	Medium	8
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.684*	+0.124	+0.359	Medium	3
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.752	+0.192	+0.193	Medium	5
Iker Lecuona	1:33.976	+0.416	+0.094	Medium	5
Jorge Martin	1:34.020	+0.460	+0.457	Medium	6
Jack Miller	1:34.167*	+0.607	+0.105	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:34.672	+1.112	+0.308	Medium	9
Lorenzo Savadori	1:34.684*	+1.124	+0.781	Medium	3
Garrett Gerloff	1:34.916*	+1.356	—	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	57%	1 ✓
2	Francesco Bagnaia	42%	2 ✓
3	Jorge Martin	33%	4
4	Danilo Petrucci	20%	8
5	Marc Marquez	17%	10
6	Brad Binder	10%	11
7	Alex Marquez	9%	6
8	Iker Lecuona	4%	3
9	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	5
10	Luca Marini	3%	7
11	Enea Bastianini	4%	9
12	Garrett Gerloff	2%	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Maverick Viñales	36%	68%	92%	1
2	Fabio Quartararo	28%	53%	85%	2
3	Pol Espargaro	16%	49%	80%	11
4	Aleix Espargaro	3%	32%	68%	9
5	Joan Mir	3%	27%	54%	10
6	Alex Rins	6%	21%	55%	7
7	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	12%	43%	4
8	Miguel Oliveira	2%	12%	36%	6
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	7%	28%	12
10	Jack Miller	2%	7%	21%	8
11	Johann Zarco	1%	11%	26%	5
12	Francesco Bagnaia	0%	2%	16%	3

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Maverick Viñales	1	31%	63%	78%	88%	11%	2
Fabio Quartararo	2	22%	54%	70%	83%	15%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	3	12%	35%	51%	65%	33%	6
Takaaki Nakagami	4	12%	40%	60%	81%	15%	9
Johann Zarco	5	7%	30%	53%	78%	16%	4
Miguel Oliveira	6	5%	25%	47%	80%	14%	5
Alex Rins	7	4%	17%	36%	70%	21%	11
Jack Miller	8	2%	12%	28%	64%	25%	—
Aleix Espargaro	9	1%	8%	20%	58%	26%	8
Joan Mir	10	1%	6%	17%	61%	18%	3
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	4%	12%	53%	21%	10
Valentino Rossi	12	1%	3%	11%	51%	12%	—
Iker Lecuona	13	0%	2%	6%	35%	31%	—
Jorge Martin	14	0%	1%	6%	37%	12%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	30%	16
Alex Marquez	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	26%	14
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	1%	19%	8%	18
Danilo Petrucci	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	20%	13
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	23%	15
Marc Marquez	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	15%	7
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	22%	12
Garrett Gerloff	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	131	—
2	Johann Zarco	109	−22
3	Jack Miller	100	−31
4	Francesco Bagnaia	99	−32
5	Joan Mir	85	−46
6	Maverick Viñales	75	−56

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

11/26

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

4.854 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Iannone, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Miguel Oliveira (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	1:34.048	—	+0.292	Hard	22
Marc Marquez	1:34.112	+0.064	+0.210	Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:34.429	+0.381	+0.275	Hard	23
Danilo Petrucci	1:34.472	+0.424	+0.574	Hard	24
Cal Crutchlow	1:34.487	+0.439	+0.729	Hard	22
Joan Mir	1:34.648	+0.600	+0.562	Soft	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.784	+0.736	+0.512	Hard	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:34.814	+0.766	+0.226	Hard	24
Pol Espargaro	1:35.101	+1.053	+0.406	Hard	24
Andrea Iannone	1:35.130	+1.082	+0.224	Hard	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	71%	+1.12%	+0.051	1	2	8.8
Soft	24%	+1.02%	+0.024	0	1	9.8
Medium	5%	+0.77%	—	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.