Round 16 of 18 Aftermath

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix 2021

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli Italy

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

22.10 – 24.10.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:52.830	25
2	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+4.859	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+12.013	16
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+12.775	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.458	11
6	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+17.669	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+18.468	9
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+18.607	8
9	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+25.417	7
10	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+27.735	6
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+27.879	5
12	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+28.137	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+41.413	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+42.830	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+82.462	1
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 24%	Marc Marquez · 4% · from P7	0.44 / 0.44	5.1 / 5.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.859 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P16 to P3.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marc Marquez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:37:06	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out on sighting lap
Race	13:58:08	Brad Binder	Pit-lane start	starting warm up lap from pit lane
Race	14:03:22	Joan Mir	Jump start	jump start
Race	14:03:23	Joan Mir	Long lap	double long lap penalty
Race	14:04:00	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:00	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:28	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:27	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:25	Alex Marquez	Technical problem	stopped with technical issue
Race	14:16:29	Iker Lecuona	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:25	Jorge Martin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:19	Brad Binder	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:32:46	Andrea Dovizioso	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:35:16	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:35:44	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:18	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 7 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Marc Marquez	7	3	+4
Aleix Espargaro	11	8	+3
Alex Rins	13	10	+3
Luca Marini	3	7	−4
Danilo Petrucci	9	12	−3
Johann Zarco	10	13	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	16→3	+9.5
Fabio Quartararo	15→4	+7.8
Valentino Rossi	23→10	+7.0
Takaaki Nakagami	17→15	−1.9
Luca Marini	3→9	−4.9
Franco Morbidelli	6→14	−8.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	83%	+1.10%	+0.005	1	3	8.5
Medium	17%	+0.52%	−0.006	0	0	4.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

16.2 °C

Air

max 16.4 °C

69%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 23 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Iker Lecuona	56%	2 ✓
2	Francesco Bagnaia	41%	1 ✓
3	Fabio Quartararo	33%	5
4	Maverick Viñales	21%	9
5	Joan Mir	17%	8
6	Michele Pirro	10%	12
7	Alex Rins	8%	3
8	Brad Binder	5%	10
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	6
10	Alex Marquez	3%	4
11	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	7
12	Valentino Rossi	2%	13
13	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Iker Lecuona	36%	67%	91%	8
2	Francesco Bagnaia	27%	54%	85%	1
3	Jack Miller	16%	48%	79%	2
4	Miguel Oliveira	3%	31%	67%	5
5	Luca Marini	4%	27%	53%	3
6	Danilo Petrucci	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Johann Zarco	1%	12%	41%	10
8	Jorge Martin	2%	12%	36%	12
9	Marc Marquez	2%	8%	28%	7
10	Pol Espargaro	2%	8%	22%	4
11	Franco Morbidelli	3%	12%	28%	6
12	Aleix Espargaro	0%	3%	16%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Lorenzo Savadori	24	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	24%	50%	62%	70%	28%	—
Jack Miller	2	19%	46%	62%	73%	25%	—
Luca Marini	3	19%	52%	73%	91%	6%	9
Pol Espargaro	4	12%	38%	56%	77%	20%	2
Miguel Oliveira	5	8%	30%	53%	79%	16%	—
Franco Morbidelli	6	6%	24%	44%	76%	17%	14
Marc Marquez	7	4%	20%	39%	75%	15%	1
Iker Lecuona	8	3%	12%	26%	57%	31%	—
Danilo Petrucci	9	2%	9%	23%	65%	19%	—
Johann Zarco	10	2%	6%	18%	61%	17%	5
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	4%	13%	49%	26%	7
Jorge Martin	12	0%	3%	10%	45%	24%	—
Alex Rins	13	0%	2%	7%	42%	21%	6
Alex Marquez	14	0%	1%	5%	32%	23%	—
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	4%	31%	13%	4
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	20%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	17	0%	0%	2%	17%	13%	15
Joan Mir	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	—
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	12%	8
Brad Binder	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	18%	11
Andrea Dovizioso	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	12%	13
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	12
Valentino Rossi	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	10
Lorenzo Savadori	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	29%	—

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.58%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%	Maverick Viñales +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.50%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

0/100

Position index

33%

Pole wins

33%

Front row on the podium

0.58

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 100% of the time (between 21% and 100%; 1 cases).

Descriptive, over 3 races (2020–2024). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	254	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	202	−52
3	Joan Mir	175	−79
4	Jack Miller	149	−105
5	Johann Zarco	141	−113
6	Brad Binder	131	−123

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

12/27

Laps led by the winner

Maverick Viñales

2.425 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P17 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Andrea Dovizioso (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.653	—	+0.221	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	1:32.768	+0.115	+0.292	Medium	24
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.828	+0.175	+0.275	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:32.868	+0.215	+0.562	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:32.883	+0.230	+0.406	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.069	+0.416	+0.193	Medium	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.150	+0.497	+0.359	Soft	25
Iker Lecuona	1:33.158	+0.505	+0.094	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.227	+0.574	+0.356	Medium	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.285	+0.632	+0.226	missing	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2020Maverick ViñalesYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2024	2/21	10%
2021	8/23	35%
2020	7/20	35%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	53%	+0.84%	−0.008	0	1	8.8
Medium	41%	+0.45%	−0.004	1	2	3.8
Hard	6%	+1.05%	+0.014	0	0	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.