Round 15 of 18 Aftermath

Grand Prix of the Americas 2021

5.510 m · 20 laps · since 2013

01.10 – 03.10.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:41.435	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.679	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.547	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.098	13
5	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+11.752	11
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+13.269	10
7	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.722	9
8	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+13.406	8
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.832	7
10	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.265	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.055	5
12	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+24.743	4
13	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+25.307	3
14	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+26.853	2
15	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+28.055	1
16	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+30.989	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+35.251	0
18	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+42.239	0
19	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+49.854	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 25%	Marc Marquez · 15% · from P3	0.67 / 0.67	2.8 / 2.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:04.815	—	+0.210	Soft	17
Takaaki Nakagami	2:05.026	+0.211	+0.359	Soft	16
Jorge Martin	2:05.111	+0.296	+0.457	Soft	17
Fabio Quartararo	2:05.118	+0.303	+0.275	Soft	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:05.252	+0.437	+0.221	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:05.462	+0.647	+0.562	Soft	18
Jack Miller	2:05.468	+0.653	+0.105	Hard	17
Enea Bastianini	2:05.472	+0.657	+0.319	Soft	18
Alex Rins	2:05.606	+0.791	+0.217	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:05.607	+0.792	+0.327	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	2:05.693	+0.878	+0.406	Soft	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:05.733	+0.918	+0.193	Soft	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:06.000	+1.185	+0.209	Soft	6
Iker Lecuona	2:06.075	+1.260	+0.094	Soft	18
Alex Marquez	2:06.094	+1.279	+0.356	Soft	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:06.102	+1.287	+0.226	Soft	18
Valentino Rossi	2:06.225	+1.410	+0.508	Medium	17
Luca Marini	2:06.228	+1.413	+0.308	Soft	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:06.831	+2.016	+0.574	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:07.510	+2.695	+0.512	Soft	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

20/20

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.679 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P16 to P6.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Joan Mir (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:04:24	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:43	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:12	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:19:31	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:37:07	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T5
Race	22:09:31	Joan Mir	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to irresponsible riding

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	7	3	+4
Enea Bastianini	16	13	+3
Brad Binder	11	8	+3
Luca Marini	9	14	−5
Johann Zarco	6	10	−4
Andrea Dovizioso	14	17	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Enea Bastianini	16→6	+6.5
Marc Marquez	3→1	+3.1
Miguel Oliveira	18→11	+2.8
Luca Marini	9→14	−6.0
Franco Morbidelli	13→19	−8.5
Takaaki Nakagami	5→17	−11.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	86%	+0.67%	+0.020	1	3	9.9
Medium	10%	+0.88%	+0.021	0	0	12.0
Hard	5%	+0.52%	+0.090	0	0	7.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

30.2 °C

Air

max 30.6 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 18 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 01.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:15.872	—	15	337.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.885	+0.04%	7	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	02:16.039	+0.167	15	338.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:18.604	+0.56%	8	Wet-Medium
3	Johann Zarco	02:16.471	+0.599	16	337.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:18.905	+0.78%	9	Wet-Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	02:16.655	+0.783	15	334.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:19.501	+1.22%	8	Wet-Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	02:16.822	+0.950	15	338.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:17.827	—	8	Wet-Soft
6	Alex Marquez	02:16.964	+1.092	16	333.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.398	+2.59%	10	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Rins	02:17.027	+1.155	15	334.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:20.319	+1.81%	11	Wet-Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	02:17.328	+1.456	16	337.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:19.024	+0.87%	12	Wet-Soft
9	Brad Binder	02:17.596	+1.724	14	336.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	2:21.691	+2.80%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	02:17.596	+1.724	16	328.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:19.747	+1.39%	8	Wet-Soft
11	Luca Marini	02:17.755	+1.883	13	335.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.663	+2.78%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Joan Mir	02:17.903	+2.031	14	333.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Danilo Petrucci	02:18.083	+2.211	14	332.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:23.902	+4.41%	5	Wet-Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	02:18.087	+2.215	14	333.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.857	+2.92%	7	Wet-Soft
15	Fabio Quartararo	02:18.165	+2.293	16	334.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	2:19.472	+1.19%	9	Wet-Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	02:18.292	+2.420	15	337.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:20.596	+2.01%	7	Wet-Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	02:18.530	+2.658	14	329.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.884	+2.94%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	02:18.648	+2.776	14	335.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.842	+2.91%	6	Wet-Soft
19	Jorge Martin	02:18.832	+2.960	14	332.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:20.924	+2.25%	7	Wet-Soft
20	Valentino Rossi	02:19.668	+3.796	14	333.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
21	Andrea Dovizioso	02:20.556	+4.684	12	329.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP2 · 01.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:04.164	—	17	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Jack Miller	02:04.179	+0.015	17	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.366	+0.202	17	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:06.180	—	9	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	02:04.552	+0.388	16	343.9	Hard / Soft	2:08.045	+1.48%	4	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.612	+0.448	16	341.7	Soft / Soft	2:07.127	+0.75%	4	Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.663	+0.499	16	340.6	Hard / Soft	2:06.815	+0.50%	5	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	02:04.677	+0.513	15	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	02:04.723	+0.559	15	346.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	02:04.802	+0.638	18	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	02:04.836	+0.672	16	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Brad Binder	02:04.852	+0.688	16	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Luca Marini	02:04.933	+0.769	16	342.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	02:05.094	+0.930	15	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.137	+0.973	15	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.296	+1.132	14	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	02:05.614	+1.450	16	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	02:05.631	+1.467	16	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.682	+1.518	14	340.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:06.209	+2.045	12	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.235	+2.071	14	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Iker Lecuona	02:06.257	+2.093	16	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 02.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	02:02.923	—	16	348.3	Soft / Soft	2:06.041	+0.74%	7	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.602	+0.679	16	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:05.862	+0.60%	5	Soft
3	Alex Rins	02:03.727	+0.804	17	340.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	02:03.804	+0.881	17	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	02:03.823	+0.900	17	346.1	Hard / Soft	2:05.417	+0.24%	6	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.867	+0.944	17	339.6	Soft / Soft	2:05.118	—	7	Hard
7	Pol Espargaro	02:04.020	+1.097	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Brad Binder	02:04.040	+1.117	15	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
9	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.125	+1.202	15	347.2	Soft / Soft	2:05.916	+0.64%	5	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	02:04.197	+1.274	15	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.260	+1.337	16	342.8	Soft / Soft	2:06.128	+0.81%	7	Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	02:04.427	+1.504	16	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	02:04.494	+1.571	16	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.510	+1.587	16	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	02:04.860	+1.937	17	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Iker Lecuona	02:04.890	+1.967	14	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.310	+2.387	15	335.4	Soft / Soft	2:07.983	+2.29%	5	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	02:05.539	+2.616	14	343.9	Soft / Soft	2:06.257	+0.91%	5	Soft
19	Aleix Espargaro	02:05.558	+2.635	12	346.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Luca Marini	02:05.928	+3.005	12	341.7	Hard / Medium	2:06.190	+0.86%	6	Medium
21	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.050	+3.127	15	338.5	Hard / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 02.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	02:04.028	—	12	347.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
2	Joan Mir	02:04.180	+0.152	8	339.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	02:04.355	+0.327	13	347.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	02:04.375	+0.347	12	349.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.379	+0.351	12	337.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.404	+0.376	12	342.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
7	Alex Rins	02:04.462	+0.434	11	339.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
8	Marc Marquez	02:04.544	+0.516	12	341.7	Hard / Hard	2:05.056	—	5	Hard
9	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.711	+0.683	13	340.6	Hard / Medium	2:05.095	+0.03%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.711	+0.683	10	343.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Luca Marini	02:05.049	+1.021	10	337.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	02:05.071	+1.043	11	347.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Jorge Martin	02:05.215	+1.187	12	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Brad Binder	02:05.312	+1.284	11	343.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
15	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.349	+1.321	11	337.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	02:05.407	+1.379	12	345.0	Hard / Soft	2:06.040	+0.79%	5	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	02:05.429	+1.401	10	343.9	Hard / Medium	2:10.580	+4.42%	5	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	02:05.551	+1.523	13	336.4	Hard / Hard	2:05.899	+0.67%	5	Medium
19	Iker Lecuona	02:05.566	+1.538	9	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.614	+1.586	9	335.4	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Danilo Petrucci	02:06.185	+2.157	11	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 02.10 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Luca Marini	02:03.410	—	7	340.6	Hard / Soft
2	Joan Mir	02:03.540	+0.130	7	337.5	Hard / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	02:03.872	+0.462	6	338.5	Hard / Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	02:04.044	+0.634	7	341.7	Hard / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	02:04.100	+0.690	7	346.1	Hard / Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	02:04.118	+0.708	6	346.1	Soft / Soft
7	Iker Lecuona	02:04.324	+0.914	7	342.8	Hard / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.392	+0.982	6	340.6	Hard / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.419	+1.009	5	345.0	Hard / Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	02:04.699	+1.289	6	342.8	Hard / Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	02:04.829	+1.419	7	338.5	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 02.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	02:02.781	—	7	343.9	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	02:03.129	+0.348	7	341.7	Hard / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	02:03.209	+0.428	6	341.7	Hard / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	02:03.278	+0.497	6	346.1	Soft / Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.292	+0.511	6	342.8	Soft / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	02:03.379	+0.598	7	349.5	Hard / Soft
7	Alex Rins	02:03.453	+0.672	7	340.6	Soft / Soft
8	Joan Mir	02:03.528	+0.747	6	337.5	Hard / Soft
9	Luca Marini	02:03.546	+0.765	3	340.6	Hard / Soft
10	Jack Miller	02:03.720	+0.939	6	341.7	Soft / Soft
11	Brad Binder	02:03.781	+1.000	6	342.8	Hard / Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	02:03.875	+1.094	6	345.0	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 03.10

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	02:04.074	—	10	342.8	Soft / Soft	2:04.889	+0.02%	6	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	02:04.122	+0.048	8	343.9	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Alex Rins	02:04.523	+0.449	9	339.6	Hard / Medium	2:05.285	+0.34%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	02:04.531	+0.457	9	340.6	Soft / Soft	2:04.864	—	4	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	02:04.768	+0.694	8	340.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Joan Mir	02:04.803	+0.729	9	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:04.826	+0.752	10	346.1	Hard / Soft	2:06.483	+1.30%	7	Soft
8	Johann Zarco	02:04.857	+0.783	10	351.7	Soft / Soft	2:05.944	+0.87%	6	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	02:04.910	+0.836	9	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Jack Miller	02:05.021	+0.947	9	346.1	Hard / Hard	2:05.527	+0.53%	5	Hard
11	Enea Bastianini	02:05.049	+0.975	8	343.9	Hard / Soft	2:07.144	+1.83%	6	Soft
12	Luca Marini	02:05.061	+0.987	8	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:05.209	+0.28%	5	Soft
13	Iker Lecuona	02:05.061	+0.987	10	342.8	Hard / Soft	2:05.419	+0.44%	5	Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	02:05.064	+0.990	10	334.3	Hard / Soft	2:05.620	+0.61%	7	Soft
15	Brad Binder	02:05.178	+1.104	10	341.7	Hard / Soft	2:05.330	+0.37%	6	Soft
16	Franco Morbidelli	02:05.209	+1.135	9	338.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.565	+0.56%	4	Soft
17	Alex Marquez	02:05.221	+1.147	9	341.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Francesco Bagnaia	02:05.231	+1.157	10	346.1	Hard / Soft	2:05.426	+0.45%	6	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:05.776	+1.702	8	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Danilo Petrucci	02:05.964	+1.890	9	336.4	Hard / Soft	2:06.463	+1.28%	6	Soft
21	Valentino Rossi	02:05.967	+1.893	10	337.5	Hard / Soft	2:07.168	+1.85%	6	Soft

Race · 03.10

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:41.435	25	20	Hard / Soft	2:04.815	—	17	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	+4.679	20	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.118	+0.24%	18	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	+8.547	16	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.252	+0.35%	18	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+11.098	13	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.606	+0.63%	17	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	+11.752	11	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.111	+0.24%	17	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	+13.269	10	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.472	+0.53%	18	Soft
7	Jack Miller	+14.722	9	20	Hard / Hard	2:05.468	+0.52%	17	Hard
8	Joan Mir	+13.406	8	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.462	+0.52%	18	Soft
9	Brad Binder	+15.832	7	20	Hard / Medium	2:05.607	+0.64%	18	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	+20.265	6	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.693	+0.70%	17	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	+23.055	5	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.733	+0.74%	18	Soft
12	Alex Marquez	+24.743	4	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.094	+1.03%	18	Soft
13	Andrea Dovizioso	+25.307	3	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.102	+1.03%	18	Soft
14	Luca Marini	+26.853	2	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.228	+1.13%	18	Soft
15	Valentino Rossi	+28.055	1	20	Hard / Medium	2:06.225	+1.13%	17	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	+30.989	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.075	+1.01%	18	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+35.251	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:05.026	+0.17%	16	Soft
18	Danilo Petrucci	+42.239	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:06.831	+1.62%	18	Soft
19	Franco Morbidelli	+49.854	0	20	Hard / Soft	2:07.510	+2.16%	18	Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	8	Hard / Soft	2:06.000	+0.95%	6	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	5	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	56%	2 ✓
2	Miguel Oliveira	41%	8
3	Enea Bastianini	33%	6
4	Franco Morbidelli	21%	3
5	Aleix Espargaro	18%	9
6	Valentino Rossi	10%	10
7	Iker Lecuona	8%	7
8	Luca Marini	4%	1 ✓
9	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	4
10	Alex Marquez	3%	5
11	Danilo Petrucci	3%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	36%	67%	92%	10
2	Takaaki Nakagami	27%	54%	84%	5
3	Alex Rins	16%	48%	80%	7
4	Marc Marquez	3%	31%	67%	3
5	Johann Zarco	4%	27%	53%	6
6	Fabio Quartararo	6%	21%	55%	2
7	Pol Espargaro	1%	12%	42%	12
8	Brad Binder	2%	12%	36%	11
9	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	8%	28%	1
10	Joan Mir	2%	8%	22%	8
11	Jorge Martin	3%	12%	27%	4
12	Luca Marini	0%	3%	16%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	24%	50%	61%	69%	29%	3
Fabio Quartararo	2	25%	55%	72%	85%	14%	2
Marc Marquez	3	15%	46%	66%	82%	15%	1
Jorge Martin	4	11%	33%	52%	70%	26%	5
Takaaki Nakagami	5	8%	31%	54%	81%	14%	17
Johann Zarco	6	6%	25%	47%	78%	17%	—
Alex Rins	7	4%	17%	34%	69%	21%	4
Joan Mir	8	3%	13%	32%	71%	16%	8
Luca Marini	9	2%	9%	24%	74%	6%	14
Jack Miller	10	1%	5%	15%	53%	25%	7
Brad Binder	11	1%	5%	13%	53%	18%	9
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	3%	10%	47%	20%	10
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	3%	8%	41%	17%	19
Andrea Dovizioso	14	0%	2%	5%	37%	12%	13
Alex Marquez	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	24%	12
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	2%	22%	21%	6
Iker Lecuona	17	0%	0%	1%	13%	32%	16
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	11
Aleix Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	26%	—
Valentino Rossi	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	12%	15
Danilo Petrucci	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.55%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%	Fabio Quartararo +0.67%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%	Marc Marquez +0.49%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Luca Marini +0.71%
S3	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.34%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.66%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.04%	Marc Marquez +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales	Pedro Acosta +0.07%	Jorge Martin +0.19%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Jorge Martin +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Raul Fernandez +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.10%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Luca Marini +0.18%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.40%
S2	Marc Marquez	Enea Bastianini +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.37%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.43%
S4	Alex Rins +0.20%	Joan Mir +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jack Miller +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.27%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.31%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.64%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%
S4	Takaaki Nakagami +0.09%	Johann Zarco +0.25%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.59%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.60%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.14%	Cal Crutchlow +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.13%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.59%	Maverick Viñales +0.79%
S3	Marc Marquez	Valentino Rossi +0.74%	Maverick Viñales +0.80%
S4	Andrea Iannone	Cal Crutchlow +0.30%	Johann Zarco +0.32%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

67/100

Position index

14%

Pole wins

62%

Front row on the podium

0.79

Grid ↔ result

Descriptive, over 7 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	234	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	186	−48
3	Joan Mir	167	−67
4	Johann Zarco	141	−93
5	Jack Miller	140	−94
6	Brad Binder	124	−110

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.462 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Franco Morbidelli (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	2:04.366	—	+0.210	Medium	6
Alex Rins	2:05.065	+0.699	+0.217	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	2:05.164	+0.798	+0.508	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	2:05.298	+0.932	+0.292	Medium	16
Andrea Dovizioso	2:05.714	+1.348	+0.226	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:05.782	+1.416	+0.105	Soft	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:05.788	+1.422	+0.512	Medium	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:05.989	+1.623	+0.574	Soft	18
Joan Mir	2:05.992	+1.626	+0.562	Medium	16
Fabio Quartararo	2:06.066	+1.700	+0.275	Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Maverick ViñalesAprilia
2023Alex RinsHonda
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/22	23%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	9/22	41%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%
2019	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	64%	+1.23%	+0.027	1	2	8.7
Soft	36%	+2.02%	+0.030	0	1	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.