Round 2 of 18 Aftermath

Doha Grand Prix 2021

5.380 m · 21 laps · since 2004

02.04 – 04.04.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	42:23.997	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+1.457	20
3	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+1.500	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.088	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+2.110	11
6	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.642	10
7	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.868	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.979	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.365	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+5.382	6
11	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+5.550	5
12	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+5.787	4
13	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.063	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+6.453	2
15	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.928	1
16	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+14.246	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.241	0
18	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+16.472	0
19	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+16.779	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+38.775	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 28%	Fabio Quartararo · 8% · from P5	0.79 / 0.79	3.3 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:55.220	—	+0.275	Soft	20
Jack Miller	1:55.321	+0.101	+0.105	Soft	19
Alex Rins	1:55.345	+0.125	+0.217	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:55.374	+0.154	+0.344	Soft	19
Maverick Viñales	1:55.381	+0.161	+0.292	Soft	17
Jorge Martin	1:55.384	+0.164	+0.457	Soft	20
Pol Espargaro	1:55.394	+0.174	+0.406	Soft	20
Brad Binder	1:55.402	+0.182	+0.327	Soft	20
Iker Lecuona	1:55.427	+0.207	+0.094	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:55.431	+0.211	+0.319	Soft	19
Joan Mir	1:55.446	+0.226	+0.562	Soft	18
Stefan Bradl	1:55.467	+0.247	+0.530	Soft	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:55.484	+0.264	+0.512	Soft	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:55.486	+0.266	+0.221	Soft	18
Alex Marquez	1:55.529	+0.309	+0.356	Soft	10
Aleix Espargaro	1:55.601	+0.381	+0.209	Soft	18
Miguel Oliveira	1:55.681	+0.461	+0.193	Soft	20
Luca Marini	1:55.756	+0.536	+0.308	Soft	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:55.768	+0.548	+0.359	Soft	19
Valentino Rossi	1:55.770	+0.550	+0.508	Soft	19
Danilo Petrucci	1:55.894	+0.674	+0.574	Soft	20
Lorenzo Savadori	1:56.881	+1.661	+0.781	Soft	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

4/22

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

1.457 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Valentino Rossi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	20:03:26		Jump start	Jump start
Race	20:25:25	Iker Lecuona	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	20:25:58	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	18	10	+8
Miguel Oliveira	12	6	+6
Joan Mir	9	5	+4
Stefan Bradl	11	18	−7
Maverick Viñales	3	9	−6
Francesco Bagnaia	6	11	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	18→8	+5.8
Fabio Quartararo	5→1	+4.4
Enea Bastianini	19→11	+3.4
Miguel Oliveira	12→15	−5.1
Danilo Petrucci	17→19	−5.9
Luca Marini	13→18	−7.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.21%	+0.021	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.7 °C

Air

max 21.1 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

29 km/h

Wind

gusts 45 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.779	—	12	347.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:54.839	+0.060	15	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:54.864	+0.085	15	342.8	Hard / Hard	1:55.145	—	5	Hard
4	Jorge Martin	01:55.019	+0.240	15	351.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.125	+0.346	11	341.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.263	+0.484	15	345.0	Hard / Hard	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.303	+0.524	16	341.7	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:55.349	+0.570	16	343.9	Hard / Hard	—			—
9	Stefan Bradl	01:55.393	+0.614	18	349.5	Hard / Hard	1:55.875	+0.63%	5	Hard
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.448	+0.669	19	347.2	Hard / Hard	1:56.271	+0.98%	13	Hard
11	Luca Marini	01:55.454	+0.675	16	347.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Pol Espargaro	01:55.507	+0.728	19	351.7	Hard / Hard	1:58.900	+3.26%	11	Hard
13	Alex Marquez	01:55.597	+0.818	18	346.1	Hard / Medium	1:56.290	+0.99%	5	Hard
14	Enea Bastianini	01:55.677	+0.898	15	348.3	Soft / Medium	1:56.280	+0.99%	5	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.770	+0.991	16	341.7	Hard / Medium	1:55.926	+0.68%	10	Medium
16	Brad Binder	01:55.846	+1.067	16	349.5	Hard / Medium	—			—
17	Valentino Rossi	01:55.925	+1.146	17	347.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Jack Miller	01:55.984	+1.205	14	350.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
19	Iker Lecuona	01:56.023	+1.244	17	348.3	Hard / Medium	1:56.492	+1.17%	5	Medium
20	Francesco Bagnaia	01:56.119	+1.340	15	348.3	Hard / Hard	1:58.781	+3.16%	4	Hard
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:56.561	+1.782	16	340.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
22	Johann Zarco	01:56.743	+1.964	9	352.9	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 02.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:53.145	—	15	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.458	+0.313	15	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:53.537	+0.392	17	356.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.583	+0.438	16	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.667	+0.98%	6	Medium
5	Jorge Martin	01:53.593	+0.448	17	354.0	Soft / Soft	1:55.010	+0.41%	4	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.646	+0.501	11	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.699	+0.554	15	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:55.124	+0.51%	5	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:53.713	+0.568	17	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:55.376	+0.73%	7	Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:53.872	+0.727	18	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:54.543	—	7	Medium
10	Stefan Bradl	01:53.914	+0.769	18	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.048	+0.44%	6	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:53.944	+0.799	17	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:53.969	+0.824	16	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:54.012	+0.867	17	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:54.913	+0.32%	5	Soft
14	Valentino Rossi	01:54.112	+0.967	18	347.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.821	+1.12%	7	Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.127	+0.982	13	348.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:54.148	+1.003	16	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:54.205	+1.060	15	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:54.237	+1.092	15	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:56.027	+1.30%	5	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:54.516	+1.371	16	347.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:54.680	+1.535	17	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:55.683	+1.00%	7	Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:54.971	+1.826	17	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:56.706	+1.89%	5	Soft
22	Iker Lecuona	01:55.369	+2.224	15	346.1	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 03.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:56.064	—	12	330.2	Soft / Soft	1:57.119	—	6	Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:56.347	+0.283	14	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:56.450	+0.386	13	326.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:56.614	+0.550	5	332.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:56.647	+0.583	8	329.2	Soft / Soft	1:57.327	+0.18%	6	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:56.660	+0.596	13	328.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
7	Enea Bastianini	01:56.668	+0.604	11	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Marquez	01:56.701	+0.637	7	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:57.747	+0.54%	5	Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:56.718	+0.654	15	332.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:56.789	+0.725	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:57.630	+0.44%	5	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:56.855	+0.791	15	331.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:56.933	+0.869	14	334.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
13	Iker Lecuona	01:56.981	+0.917	13	332.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
14	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.335	+1.271	6	336.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Lorenzo Savadori	01:57.378	+1.314	15	328.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	01:57.450	+1.386	12	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:59.486	+2.02%	5	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.633	+2.569	5	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	02:03.348	+7.284	4	328.2	Hard / Hard	—			—
Retired	Jack Miller		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jorge Martin		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Luca Marini		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 03.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:54.543	—	13	355.2	Soft / Soft	1:54.960	+0.02%	5	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:54.698	+0.155	14	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.189	+0.22%	7	Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:54.828	+0.285	12	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:55.737	+0.70%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.855	+0.312	15	335.4	Soft / Soft	1:54.936	—	9	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.995	+0.452	13	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:55.574	+0.56%	7	Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:55.152	+0.609	11	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.876	+0.82%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.203	+0.660	11	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:55.249	+0.27%	5	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	01:55.217	+0.674	10	350.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:55.253	+0.710	12	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.836	+0.78%	5	Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:55.344	+0.801	12	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.899	+0.84%	9	Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.348	+0.805	11	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:55.385	+0.842	11	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	01:55.419	+0.876	11	345.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:55.495	+0.952	10	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	01:55.520	+0.977	12	336.4	Soft / Soft	1:55.718	+0.68%	6	Soft
16	Iker Lecuona	01:55.656	+1.113	10	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Brad Binder	01:55.696	+1.153	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Jack Miller	01:55.747	+1.204	10	349.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.755	+1.212	11	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.917	+1.374	12	341.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Valentino Rossi	01:55.988	+1.445	12	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:56.332	+1.22%	7	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:56.421	+1.878	11	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 03.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Joan Mir	01:53.931	—	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:54.220	+0.289	6	339.6	Soft / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:54.228	+0.297	7	343.9	Soft / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:54.261	+0.330	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	01:54.402	+0.471	6	340.6	Soft / Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:54.481	+0.550	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:54.528	+0.597	7	341.7	Soft / Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:54.555	+0.624	7	341.7	Soft / Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:54.632	+0.701	6	336.4	Soft / Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	01:54.731	+0.800	7	340.6	Medium / Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:54.881	+0.950	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:55.823	+1.892	7	333.3	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 03.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:53.106	—	7	349.5	Soft / Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:53.263	+0.157	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:53.267	+0.161	6	336.4	Soft / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:53.303	+0.197	7	341.7	Soft / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:53.469	+0.363	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:53.654	+0.548	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:53.705	+0.599	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:53.745	+0.639	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:53.785	+0.679	7	332.3	missing / missing
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:53.794	+0.688	7	329.2	Soft / Soft
11	Stefan Bradl	01:54.224	+1.118	7	342.8	Soft / Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.096	+1.990	5	337.5	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 04.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:54.482	—	5	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:54.576	+0.094	10	334.3	Soft / Soft	1:54.810	—	6	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:54.675	+0.193	8	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:54.860	+0.378	9	333.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.072	+0.23%	7	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:54.954	+0.472	10	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:55.360	+0.48%	5	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:54.962	+0.480	9	345.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:54.978	+0.496	10	332.3	Soft / Soft	1:55.255	+0.39%	5	Soft
8	Aleix Espargaro	01:55.019	+0.537	11	337.5	Hard / Soft	1:55.605	+0.69%	9	Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:55.081	+0.599	9	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:55.085	+0.603	10	342.8	Soft / Soft	1:55.978	+1.02%	8	Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:55.172	+0.690	10	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:56.228	+1.24%	7	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:55.176	+0.694	9	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Luca Marini	01:55.197	+0.715	10	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:55.378	+0.50%	7	Soft
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:55.217	+0.735	10	334.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:55.220	+0.738	10	341.7	Soft / Soft	1:55.961	+1.00%	8	Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:55.237	+0.755	11	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.524	+0.62%	9	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:55.285	+0.803	11	343.9	Medium / Soft	1:55.426	+0.54%	9	Soft
18	Valentino Rossi	01:55.291	+0.809	10	335.4	Hard / Hard	1:55.734	+0.81%	6	Hard
19	Stefan Bradl	01:55.393	+0.911	10	338.5	Soft / Soft	1:55.618	+0.70%	6	Soft
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:55.560	+1.078	10	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:56.546	+1.51%	8	Soft
21	Iker Lecuona	01:56.093	+1.611	8	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:56.525	+1.49%	5	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:56.509	+2.027	7	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 04.04

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	42:23.997	25	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.220	—	20	Soft
2	Johann Zarco	+1.457	20	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.374	+0.13%	19	Soft
3	Jorge Martin	+1.500	16	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.384	+0.14%	20	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+2.088	13	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.345	+0.11%	20	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	+2.110	11	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.381	+0.14%	17	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	+2.642	10	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.486	+0.23%	18	Soft
7	Joan Mir	+4.868	9	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.446	+0.20%	18	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+4.979	8	22	Medium / Soft	1:55.402	+0.16%	20	Soft
9	Jack Miller	+5.365	7	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.321	+0.09%	19	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	+5.382	6	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.601	+0.33%	18	Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	+5.550	5	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.431	+0.18%	19	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	+5.787	4	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.484	+0.23%	20	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	+6.063	3	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.394	+0.15%	20	Soft
14	Stefan Bradl	+6.453	2	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.467	+0.21%	20	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+8.928	1	22	Medium / Soft	1:55.681	+0.40%	20	Soft
16	Valentino Rossi	+14.246	0	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.770	+0.48%	19	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.241	0	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.768	+0.48%	19	Soft
18	Luca Marini	+16.472	0	22	Soft / Soft	1:55.756	+0.47%	20	Soft
19	Danilo Petrucci	+16.779	0	22	Medium / Soft	1:55.894	+0.59%	20	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+38.775	0	22	Soft / Soft	1:56.881	+1.44%	20	Soft
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	12	Soft / Soft	1:55.529	+0.27%	10	Soft
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	12	Medium / Soft	1:55.427	+0.18%	9	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	2 ✓
2	Danilo Petrucci	43%	7
3	Joan Mir	31%	1 ✓
4	Valentino Rossi	21%	11
5	Takaaki Nakagami	17%	6
6	Alex Marquez	10%	4
7	Pol Espargaro	9%	5
8	Brad Binder	4%	8
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	9
10	Luca Marini	3%	3
11	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	12
12	Iker Lecuona	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	37%	70%	92%	4
2	Francesco Bagnaia	26%	52%	84%	6
3	Johann Zarco	17%	50%	81%	2
4	Fabio Quartararo	4%	33%	69%	5
5	Jorge Martin	3%	26%	53%	1
6	Aleix Espargaro	6%	22%	56%	7
7	Franco Morbidelli	1%	11%	43%	10
8	Alex Rins	2%	11%	35%	8
9	Maverick Viñales	1%	7%	28%	3
10	Stefan Bradl	2%	7%	21%	11
11	Miguel Oliveira	1%	9%	25%	12
12	Joan Mir	0%	2%	16%	9

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	28%	56%	71%	81%	17%	3
Johann Zarco	2	20%	52%	68%	81%	17%	2
Maverick Viñales	3	16%	47%	69%	85%	12%	5
Jack Miller	4	11%	34%	52%	71%	26%	9
Fabio Quartararo	5	8%	29%	51%	77%	18%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	6	5%	18%	35%	59%	37%	6
Aleix Espargaro	7	5%	18%	35%	67%	26%	10
Alex Rins	8	3%	15%	31%	70%	19%	4
Joan Mir	9	2%	9%	22%	64%	19%	7
Franco Morbidelli	10	1%	7%	17%	59%	20%	12
Stefan Bradl	11	1%	5%	14%	53%	19%	14
Miguel Oliveira	12	1%	4%	11%	53%	14%	15
Luca Marini	13	0%	3%	8%	42%	17%	18
Alex Marquez	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	20%	—
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	28%	20%	13
Takaaki Nakagami	16	0%	1%	3%	25%	15%	17
Danilo Petrucci	17	0%	1%	1%	16%	20%	19
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	25%	8
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	17%	11
Iker Lecuona	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	32%	—
Valentino Rossi	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	16
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	32%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,426 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.06%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Johann Zarco +0.33%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.06%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.14%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Johann Zarco +0.33%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Franco Morbidelli +0.37%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.44%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

Pending · no data yet

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Maverick Viñales	25	—
2	Johann Zarco	20	−5
3	Francesco Bagnaia	16	−9
4	Joan Mir	13	−12
5	Fabio Quartararo	11	−14
6	Alex Rins	10	−15

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

Pending · no data yet

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha

Attrition here

Average here 9% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2021	2/22	9%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet