Round 8 of 18 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2021

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998

18.06 – 20.06.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:07.243	25
2	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.610	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+6.772	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.922	13
5	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+8.591	11
6	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+9.086	10
7	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+9.371	9
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+11.439	8
9	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.625	7
10	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.769	6
11	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+16.803	5
12	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.915	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+19.217	3
14	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+22.300	2
15	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+23.615	1
16	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+23.738	0
17	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+23.946	0
18	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+24.414	0
19	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+24.715	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 31%	Marc Marquez · 8% · from P5	0.75 / 0.75	3.4 / 3.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Miguel Oliveira	1:22.072	—	+0.193	Medium	28
Marc Marquez	1:22.142	+0.070	+0.210	Medium	28
Francesco Bagnaia	1:22.294	+0.222	+0.221	Medium	27
Fabio Quartararo	1:22.308	+0.236	+0.275	Medium	28
Brad Binder	1:22.327	+0.255	+0.327	Medium	28
Jack Miller	1:22.387	+0.315	+0.105	Medium	28
Joan Mir	1:22.390	+0.318	+0.562	Medium	28
Johann Zarco	1:22.396	+0.324	+0.344	Medium	28
Aleix Espargaro	1:22.422	+0.350	+0.209	Medium	28
Alex Rins	1:22.536	+0.464	+0.217	Medium	28
Pol Espargaro	1:22.570	+0.498	+0.406	Medium	27
Jorge Martin	1:22.589	+0.517	+0.457	Medium	28
Takaaki Nakagami	1:22.635	+0.563	+0.359	Soft	27
Maverick Viñales	1:22.714	+0.642	+0.292	Medium	27
Enea Bastianini	1:22.761	+0.689	+0.319	Medium	28
Franco Morbidelli	1:22.776	+0.704	+0.512	Medium	28
Luca Marini	1:22.840	+0.768	+0.308	Medium	28
Iker Lecuona	1:22.845	+0.773	+0.094	Medium	27
Valentino Rossi	1:22.857	+0.785	+0.508	Medium	28

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.610 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P13 to P4.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Luca Marini (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:04		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:06:06	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:16	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:13	Lorenzo Savadori	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:41		Red flag	White flag displayed

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Danilo Petrucci	19	12	+7
Brad Binder	13	7	+6
Iker Lecuona	20	15	+5
Franco Morbidelli	17	22	−5
Francesco Bagnaia	10	14	−4
Valentino Rossi	15	19	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	13→4	+6.5
Marc Marquez	5→1	+4.4
Miguel Oliveira	6→2	+4.0
Takaaki Nakagami	9→13	−5.0
Johann Zarco	1→8	−5.2
Jorge Martin	7→12	−5.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.61%	+0.010	1	3	9.8
Soft	5%	+0.69%	+0.022	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

27.7 °C

Air

max 28.7 °C

51%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 37 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 18.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:21.660	—	25	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.388	+0.57%	12	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.828	+0.168	20	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:21.918	—	5	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.936	+0.276	22	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:22.366	+0.55%	10	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	01:22.010	+0.350	19	294.2	Soft / Medium	1:22.714	+0.97%	5	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:22.040	+0.380	19	292.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:22.051	+0.391	22	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.347	+0.52%	13	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:22.076	+0.416	19	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.670	+0.92%	6	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:22.148	+0.488	22	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:23.123	+1.47%	15	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:22.172	+0.512	22	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.816	+1.10%	11	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:22.253	+0.593	25	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.658	+0.90%	16	Medium
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.260	+0.600	25	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:22.696	+0.95%	12	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:22.324	+0.664	22	293.4	Medium / Hard	1:22.606	+0.84%	6	Hard
13	Luca Marini	01:22.364	+0.704	22	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:23.072	+1.41%	10	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:22.381	+0.721	24	288.7	Medium / Medium	1:22.730	+0.99%	9	Medium
15	Enea Bastianini	01:22.477	+0.817	20	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.942	+1.25%	6	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:22.537	+0.877	24	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:22.668	+0.92%	11	Medium
17	Lorenzo Savadori	01:22.612	+0.952	21	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:23.441	+1.86%	9	Soft
18	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.646	+0.986	23	290.3	Medium / Medium	1:23.143	+1.50%	11	Medium
19	Jorge Martin	01:22.678	+1.018	18	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:23.292	+1.68%	7	Medium
20	Valentino Rossi	01:22.691	+1.031	23	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:23.090	+1.43%	8	Medium
21	Iker Lecuona	01:22.728	+1.068	24	292.6	Medium / Hard	1:23.272	+1.65%	12	Hard
22	Brad Binder	01:22.969	+1.309	23	295.0	Medium / Hard	1:23.523	+1.96%	10	Hard

FP2 · 18.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Miguel Oliveira	01:20.690	—	23	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:21.974	+0.08%	14	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.910	+0.220	22	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.547	+0.78%	12	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:21.023	+0.333	22	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:22.196	+0.35%	5	Medium
4	Alex Rins	01:21.077	+0.387	23	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Pol Espargaro	01:21.108	+0.418	20	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.131	+0.441	24	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:22.181	+0.33%	9	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.143	+0.453	20	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:21.910	—	9	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:21.181	+0.491	20	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:21.192	+0.502	22	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:22.152	+0.30%	6	Hard
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.228	+0.538	18	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.282	+0.592	22	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:22.198	+0.35%	7	Hard
12	Marc Marquez	01:21.291	+0.601	26	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:21.998	+0.11%	16	Hard
13	Alex Marquez	01:21.293	+0.603	25	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:22.479	+0.70%	15	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	01:21.398	+0.708	22	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:22.817	+1.11%	11	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:21.426	+0.736	23	299.1	Hard / Soft	1:22.644	+0.90%	11	Medium
16	Joan Mir	01:21.453	+0.763	23	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:23.032	+1.37%	6	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	01:21.568	+0.878	19	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:22.704	+0.97%	4	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:21.595	+0.905	18	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:22.091	+0.22%	6	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:21.702	+1.012	20	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:23.194	+1.57%	5	Hard
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:21.878	+1.188	22	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:23.694	+2.18%	5	Medium
21	Valentino Rossi	01:21.968	+1.278	24	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:22.696	+0.96%	13	Hard
22	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.211	+1.521	24	299.1	Hard / Medium	1:22.428	+0.63%	13	Medium

FP3 · 19.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.348	—	24	294.2	— / —	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:20.404	+0.056	21	301.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Johann Zarco	01:20.433	+0.085	22	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:21.984	+0.33%	6	Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:20.451	+0.103	23	297.5	— / —	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:20.451	+0.103	19	297.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:20.501	+0.153	21	301.6	Medium / Soft	1:22.223	+0.62%	6	Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.560	+0.212	22	293.4	— / —	—			—
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:20.564	+0.216	24	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Marc Marquez	01:20.662	+0.314	24	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:22.178	+0.57%	10	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:20.682	+0.334	22	296.7	— / —	—			—
11	Joan Mir	01:20.707	+0.359	20	293.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:20.749	+0.401	23	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:22.224	+0.62%	8	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	01:20.887	+0.539	24	295.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:20.889	+0.541	22	297.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:20.903	+0.555	23	295.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Valentino Rossi	01:20.961	+0.613	23	294.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Luca Marini	01:20.978	+0.630	20	297.5	— / —	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:20.988	+0.640	22	300.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	01:21.270	+0.922	19	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:21.714	—	6	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:21.415	+1.067	19	292.6	— / —	—			—
21	Enea Bastianini	01:21.447	+1.099	17	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Iker Lecuona	01:21.669	+1.321	20	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:22.678	+1.18%	7	Medium

FP4 · 19.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:21.397	—	17	299.1	Hard / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.480	+0.083	21	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:21.928	+0.12%	16	Medium
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.554	+0.157	18	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:21.831	—	13	Medium
4	Jack Miller	01:21.558	+0.161	15	298.3	Hard / Medium	1:21.986	+0.19%	10	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:21.661	+0.264	15	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:22.008	+0.22%	11	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.686	+0.289	17	292.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	01:21.767	+0.370	15	294.2	Hard / Medium	1:22.138	+0.38%	8	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:21.912	+0.515	14	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:24.254	+2.96%	6	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:21.924	+0.527	16	293.4	Hard / Medium	1:22.252	+0.51%	7	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:22.047	+0.650	15	286.4	Hard / Medium	1:22.149	+0.39%	6	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:22.070	+0.673	16	297.5	Hard / Medium	1:22.184	+0.43%	12	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:22.073	+0.676	14	292.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:22.185	+0.788	18	290.3	Hard / Medium	1:22.721	+1.09%	13	Medium
14	Valentino Rossi	01:22.352	+0.955	16	291.1	Hard / Medium	1:22.702	+1.06%	11	Medium
15	Alex Rins	01:22.401	+1.004	14	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:22.587	+0.92%	7	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	01:22.407	+1.010	16	293.4	Hard / Medium	1:22.561	+0.89%	7	Medium
17	Lorenzo Savadori	01:22.436	+1.039	11	288.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
18	Jorge Martin	01:22.455	+1.058	15	299.1	Hard / Medium	1:22.780	+1.16%	10	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:22.506	+1.109	16	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:23.007	+1.44%	5	Medium
20	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.523	+1.126	14	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:22.796	+1.18%	9	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:22.617	+1.220	17	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:22.896	+1.30%	13	Medium
22	Luca Marini	01:22.736	+1.339	16	292.6	Hard / Medium	1:23.056	+1.50%	11	Medium

Q1 · 19.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alex Rins	01:20.644	—	8	295.0	— / —
2	Pol Espargaro	01:20.700	+0.056	10	295.8	— / —
3	Brad Binder	01:20.736	+0.092	9	298.3	Hard / Soft
4	Luca Marini	01:20.864	+0.220	10	296.7	Hard / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:20.953	+0.309	9	296.7	Hard / Soft
6	Valentino Rossi	01:20.972	+0.328	8	292.6	— / —
7	Joan Mir	01:21.014	+0.370	10	293.4	— / —
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.091	+0.447	7	288.7	— / —
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:21.137	+0.493	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	01:21.154	+0.510	8	296.7	Hard / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:21.165	+0.521	9	292.6	Hard / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:21.411	+0.767	5	294.2	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 19.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:20.236	—	7	301.6	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:20.247	+0.011	9	293.4	Hard / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:20.447	+0.211	7	298.3	Hard / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:20.508	+0.272	10	298.3	Medium / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:20.567	+0.331	9	298.3	Hard / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:20.589	+0.353	8	298.3	Hard / Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:20.617	+0.381	8	300.8	Medium / Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:20.659	+0.423	5	295.8	Hard / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:20.810	+0.574	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
10	Francesco Bagnaia	01:20.811	+0.575	8	300.8	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:20.949	+0.713	8	295.0	Hard / Soft
12	Alex Marquez	01:21.135	+0.899	9	296.7	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 20.06 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:21.341	—	13	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:21.404	+0.063	12	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:21.809	+0.16%	7	Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:21.420	+0.079	12	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Joan Mir	01:21.522	+0.181	12	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:21.676	—	6	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:21.648	+0.307	15	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:22.262	+0.72%	11	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:21.736	+0.395	15	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:22.033	+0.44%	12	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:21.761	+0.420	14	300.0	Medium / Medium	1:22.279	+0.74%	11	Medium
8	Marc Marquez	01:21.859	+0.518	14	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:22.735	+1.30%	6	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:21.870	+0.529	10	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:21.874	+0.533	10	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:22.180	+0.62%	5	Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:21.880	+0.539	14	293.4	Hard / Medium	1:22.146	+0.58%	10	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:21.952	+0.611	14	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.174	+0.61%	9	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:21.981	+0.640	9	295.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Luca Marini	01:22.158	+0.817	14	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:22.502	+1.01%	9	Medium
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:22.212	+0.871	14	292.6	Hard / Medium	1:22.515	+1.03%	9	Medium
16	Johann Zarco	01:22.296	+0.955	15	300.0	Medium / Medium	1:23.050	+1.68%	12	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:22.337	+0.996	14	297.5	Hard / Medium	1:22.680	+1.23%	6	Medium
18	Lorenzo Savadori	01:22.342	+1.001	13	291.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Brad Binder	01:22.367	+1.026	13	298.3	Hard / Medium	1:22.569	+1.09%	5	Medium
20	Jack Miller	01:22.404	+1.063	10	299.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Alex Marquez	01:22.536	+1.195	14	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:22.764	+1.33%	10	Medium
22	Iker Lecuona	01:22.855	+1.514	15	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:23.060	+1.70%	12	Medium

Race · 20.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:07.243	25	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.142	+0.09%	28	Medium
2	Miguel Oliveira	+1.610	20	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.072	—	28	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	+6.772	16	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.308	+0.29%	28	Medium
4	Brad Binder	+7.922	13	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.327	+0.31%	28	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	+8.591	11	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.294	+0.27%	27	Medium
6	Jack Miller	+9.086	10	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.387	+0.38%	28	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	+9.371	9	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.422	+0.43%	28	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	+11.439	8	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.396	+0.40%	28	Medium
9	Joan Mir	+11.625	7	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.390	+0.39%	28	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	+14.769	6	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.570	+0.61%	27	Medium
11	Alex Rins	+16.803	5	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.536	+0.57%	28	Medium
12	Jorge Martin	+16.915	4	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.589	+0.63%	28	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+19.217	3	30	Medium / Soft	1:22.635	+0.69%	27	Soft
14	Valentino Rossi	+22.300	2	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.857	+0.96%	28	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+23.615	1	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.840	+0.94%	28	Medium
16	Enea Bastianini	+23.738	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.761	+0.84%	28	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	+23.946	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.845	+0.94%	27	Medium
18	Franco Morbidelli	+24.414	0	30	Hard / Medium	1:22.776	+0.86%	28	Medium
19	Maverick Viñales	+24.715	0	30	Medium / Medium	1:22.714	+0.78%	27	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Danilo Petrucci		0	4	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Pol Espargaro	1:21.847	—	+0.406	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:21.874	+0.027	+0.344	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:22.027	+0.180	+0.457	Medium	7
Francesco Bagnaia	1:22.035	+0.188	+0.221	Medium	9
Iker Lecuona	1:22.142*	+0.295	+0.094	Medium	4
Miguel Oliveira	1:22.174	+0.327	+0.193	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:22.267	+0.420	+0.217	Medium	9
Luca Marini	1:22.357	+0.510	+0.308	Medium	6
Valentino Rossi	1:22.374*	+0.527	+0.508	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:22.382	+0.535	+0.105	Medium	6
Joan Mir	1:22.472*	+0.625	+0.562	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:22.532	+0.685	+0.275	Medium	11
Enea Bastianini	1:22.912	+1.065	+0.319	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Joan Mir	57%	7
2	Franco Morbidelli	42%	8
3	Alex Rins	33%	1 ✓
4	Danilo Petrucci	20%	9
5	Brad Binder	17%	3
6	Maverick Viñales	10%	11
7	Pol Espargaro	8%	2 ✓
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	5
9	Iker Lecuona	2%	10
10	Luca Marini	3%	4
11	Lorenzo Savadori	4%	12
12	Valentino Rossi	2%	6

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	36%	68%	92%	4
2	Aleix Espargaro	28%	52%	84%	3
3	Jorge Martin	16%	49%	80%	7
4	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	32%	68%	10
5	Marc Marquez	3%	27%	54%	5
6	Miguel Oliveira	6%	21%	54%	6
7	Alex Rins	1%	12%	43%	11
8	Fabio Quartararo	2%	11%	35%	2
9	Pol Espargaro	1%	8%	28%	8
10	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	8%	21%	9
11	Johann Zarco	1%	10%	25%	1
12	Alex Marquez	0%	2%	16%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Enea Bastianini	15	18	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #23

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	31%	58%	72%	82%	17%	8
Fabio Quartararo	2	22%	54%	70%	83%	16%	3
Aleix Espargaro	3	13%	39%	56%	71%	26%	7
Jack Miller	4	10%	34%	53%	72%	25%	6
Marc Marquez	5	8%	31%	54%	80%	15%	1
Miguel Oliveira	6	5%	24%	45%	78%	14%	2
Jorge Martin	7	4%	18%	39%	78%	13%	12
Pol Espargaro	8	3%	14%	30%	67%	21%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	9	2%	9%	24%	67%	15%	13
Francesco Bagnaia	10	1%	5%	14%	49%	34%	5
Alex Rins	11	1%	5%	13%	52%	22%	11
Alex Marquez	12	0%	2%	8%	44%	23%	—
Brad Binder	13	0%	2%	7%	38%	23%	4
Luca Marini	14	0%	2%	6%	38%	9%	15
Valentino Rossi	15	0%	1%	4%	31%	12%	14
Joan Mir	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	19%	9
Franco Morbidelli	17	0%	0%	2%	17%	18%	18
Enea Bastianini	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	24%	16
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	20%	—
Iker Lecuona	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	33%	17
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	11%	19
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jack Miller +0.44%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.50%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.51%	Aleix Espargaro +0.52%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.30%	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Aleix Espargaro +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%
S2	Raul Fernandez +0.09%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.21%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.07%	Raul Fernandez +0.14%	Alex Marquez +0.17%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.42%	Raul Fernandez +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.10%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Jack Miller +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.59%	Alex Marquez +0.61%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%	Alex Marquez +0.56%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%	Brad Binder +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Maverick Viñales +0.20%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.37%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Marc Marquez +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.32%	Luca Marini +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.70%
S2	Johann Zarco	Jack Miller +0.20%	Jorge Martin +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.33%
S4	Miguel Oliveira	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Jorge Martin +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S2	Jack Miller +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Miguel Oliveira +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Miguel Oliveira +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Joan Mir +0.88%
S2	Jack Miller +0.27%	Joan Mir +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Takaaki Nakagami +0.11%	Miguel Oliveira +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.11%	Aleix Espargaro +0.25%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.12%	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Alex Rins +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Alex Rins +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.38%
S4	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.49%	Alex Rins +0.53%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Lorenzo +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.26%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Cal Crutchlow +0.24%
S3	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.39%	Danilo Petrucci +0.51%
S4	Alex Rins +0.12%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.13%	Andrea Iannone +0.14%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.82

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	115	—
2	Johann Zarco	101	−14
3	Jack Miller	90	−25
4	Francesco Bagnaia	88	−27
5	Joan Mir	78	−37
6	Maverick Viñales	75	−40

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

30/30

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.587 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P22 to P11.

Longest battle: Cal Crutchlow vs Maverick Viñales (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:22.001	—	+0.217	Hard	16
Marc Marquez	1:22.114	+0.113	+0.210	Medium	28
Maverick Viñales	1:22.161	+0.160	+0.292	Hard	27
Cal Crutchlow	1:22.214	+0.213	+0.729	Medium	28
Aleix Espargaro	1:22.597	+0.596	+0.209	Hard	26
Pol Espargaro	1:22.620	+0.619	+0.406	Hard	28
Valentino Rossi	1:22.664	+0.663	+0.508	Medium	28
Joan Mir	1:22.691	+0.690	+0.562	Hard	28
Franco Morbidelli	1:22.704	+0.703	+0.512	Medium	28
Danilo Petrucci	1:22.724	+0.723	+0.574	Hard	28

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2021Marc MarquezHonda
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	59%	+0.92%	+0.049	0	1	10.7
Medium	23%	+0.53%	+0.051	1	2	5.3
Soft	18%	+1.03%	+0.047	0	0	10.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.