Round 12 of 18 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2021

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

27.08 – 29.08.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	40:20.579	25
2	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.663	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+4.105	16
4	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.254	13
5	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+8.462	11
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+12.189	10
7	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+13.560	9
8	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+14.044	8
9	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+16.226	7
10	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+16.287	6
11	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.339	5
12	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+17.696	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+18.285	3
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.913	2
15	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+21.018	1
16	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+22.022	0
17	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+23.232	0
18	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+29.758	0
19	Jake Dixon	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+50.845	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Pol Espargaro · 27%	Fabio Quartararo · 17% · from P3	0.53 / 0.53	3.9 / 3.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.805	—	+0.275	Medium	17
Alex Rins	2:00.956	+0.151	+0.217	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:00.960	+0.155	+0.105	Medium	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.002	+0.197	+0.209	Medium	18
Joan Mir	2:01.130	+0.325	+0.562	Medium	16
Pol Espargaro	2:01.195	+0.390	+0.406	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:01.260	+0.455	+0.327	Medium	17
Alex Marquez	2:01.330	+0.525	+0.356	Soft	15
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.339	+0.534	+0.574	Medium	18
Iker Lecuona	2:01.346	+0.541	+0.094	Medium	15
Takaaki Nakagami	2:01.353	+0.548	+0.359	Soft	15
Johann Zarco	2:01.435	+0.630	+0.344	Medium	18
Enea Bastianini	2:01.477	+0.672	+0.319	Soft	16
Luca Marini	2:01.526	+0.721	+0.308	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.572	+0.767	+0.221	Medium	18
Valentino Rossi	2:01.777	+0.972	+0.508	Medium	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:01.782	+0.977	+0.729	Medium	18
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.798	+0.993	+0.193	Medium	17
Jake Dixon	2:03.210	+2.405	—	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/20

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

2.663 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P18 to P7.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Luca Marini (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:02:12	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:02:12	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:04:19	Jorge Martin	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	13:06:20		Jump start	Jump start

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Pol Espargaro (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Iker Lecuona	18	12	+6
Alex Marquez	17	11	+6
Takaaki Nakagami	15	9	+6
Enea Bastianini	13	16	−3
Luca Marini	14	15	−1
Johann Zarco	9	10	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Iker Lecuona	18→7	+6.8
Alex Rins	10→2	+6.6
Alex Marquez	17→8	+5.1
Luca Marini	14→15	−3.8
Francesco Bagnaia	2→14	−10.5
Valentino Rossi	8→18	−10.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	80%	+0.45%	+0.024	1	3	10.1
Soft	20%	+0.44%	+0.065	0	0	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

16.8 °C

Air

max 17.6 °C

62%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

17 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	02:00.941	—	16	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.664	+0.34%	10	Medium
2	Aleix Espargaro	02:01.191	+0.250	15	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.000	+0.62%	7	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	02:01.301	+0.360	18	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.244	—	8	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	02:01.336	+0.395	19	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.508	+0.22%	12	Medium
5	Jack Miller	02:01.409	+0.468	15	335.4	Soft / Medium	2:03.940	+1.39%	5	Medium
6	Takaaki Nakagami	02:01.422	+0.481	17	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.489	+1.02%	6	Medium
7	Alex Rins	02:01.596	+0.655	17	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.967	+0.59%	10	Medium
8	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.783	+0.842	18	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:03.325	+0.88%	11	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	02:01.795	+0.854	15	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:03.224	+0.80%	5	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	02:01.870	+0.929	15	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.229	+0.81%	5	Medium
11	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.956	+1.015	16	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.734	+1.22%	5	Medium
12	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.966	+1.025	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.536	+1.06%	7	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	02:02.102	+1.161	14	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:05.695	+2.82%	5	Medium
14	Brad Binder	02:02.111	+1.170	18	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.405	+0.95%	11	Medium
15	Joan Mir	02:02.219	+1.278	16	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.878	+1.34%	6	Medium
16	Valentino Rossi	02:02.334	+1.393	17	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Iker Lecuona	02:02.400	+1.459	18	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.448	+0.99%	11	Medium
18	Enea Bastianini	02:02.526	+1.585	15	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:04.829	+2.12%	7	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:02.620	+1.679	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.840	+0.49%	5	Medium
20	Luca Marini	02:03.196	+2.255	15	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Jake Dixon	02:03.939	+2.998	17	320.4	Soft / Medium	2:07.138	+4.00%	10	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:07.699	+6.758	11	318.5	Soft / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 27.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.317	—	12	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.342	—	5	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:59.829	+0.512	15	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:59.939	+0.622	15	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.789	+1.20%	5	Medium
4	Pol Espargaro	02:00.035	+0.718	17	335.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.708	+1.14%	5	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	02:00.051	+0.734	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.102	+0.785	16	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:02.006	+1.38%	5	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.219	+0.902	16	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Brad Binder	02:00.315	+0.998	15	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.977	+2.19%	5	Medium
9	Alex Rins	02:00.392	+1.075	16	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Valentino Rossi	02:00.400	+1.083	15	328.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.281	+1.61%	5	Hard
11	Iker Lecuona	02:00.413	+1.096	15	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	02:00.548	+1.231	14	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:02.326	+1.65%	5	Medium
13	Joan Mir	02:00.725	+1.408	16	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.431	+0.91%	5	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	02:00.810	+1.493	14	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.870	+1.553	15	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.882	+1.565	16	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Luca Marini	02:01.058	+1.741	15	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.405	+2.088	17	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:01.846	+1.25%	5	Hard
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.412	+2.095	16	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	02:01.496	+2.179	15	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Jake Dixon	02:02.601	+3.284	16	324.3	Soft / Medium	2:04.965	+3.84%	5	Soft
22	Lorenzo Savadori	02:05.138	+5.821	7	322.3	missing / missing	—			—

FP3 · 28.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:59.288	—	15	339.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.386	+0.098	15	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:59.396	+0.108	15	336.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.461	+0.173	17	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.051	+0.43%	7	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.515	+0.227	17	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Pol Espargaro	01:59.515	+0.227	16	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:59.553	+0.265	17	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:59.651	+0.363	15	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.529	—	5	Medium
9	Brad Binder	01:59.671	+0.383	16	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.762	+1.02%	6	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	01:59.683	+0.395	17	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:59.725	+0.437	18	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:05.050	+3.75%	7	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.053	+0.765	16	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.075	+0.787	16	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Marquez	02:00.157	+0.869	16	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Rins	02:00.337	+1.049	14	332.3	Soft / missing	—			—
16	Iker Lecuona	02:00.359	+1.071	17	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.651	+0.93%	6	Medium
17	Danilo Petrucci	02:00.545	+1.257	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Luca Marini	02:00.548	+1.260	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.948	+1.18%	5	Medium
19	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.883	+1.595	16	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:02.361	+1.52%	5	Medium
20	Enea Bastianini	02:01.446	+2.158	16	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.628	+0.91%	6	Medium
21	Jake Dixon	02:02.814	+3.526	13	324.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 28.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.002	—	12	329.2	Medium / Medium	2:00.220	—	5	Medium
2	Pol Espargaro	02:00.253	+0.251	13	334.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.301	+0.299	12	336.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.870	+0.54%	6	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	02:00.319	+0.317	11	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Alex Rins	02:00.452	+0.450	11	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
6	Jack Miller	02:00.701	+0.699	13	337.5	Medium / Hard	2:01.440	+1.02%	10	Hard
7	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.729	+0.727	15	335.4	Medium / Medium	2:01.645	+1.19%	13	Medium
8	Valentino Rossi	02:00.738	+0.736	13	326.2	Medium / Hard	2:01.575	+1.13%	5	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	02:00.767	+0.765	11	336.4	Medium / Hard	2:01.520	+1.08%	5	Hard
10	Alex Marquez	02:00.808	+0.806	12	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	02:00.855	+0.853	12	334.3	Medium / Soft	2:05.206	+4.15%	5	Soft
12	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.971	+0.969	12	330.2	Medium / Soft	2:03.105	+2.40%	5	Medium
13	Brad Binder	02:01.023	+1.021	11	331.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.163	+1.161	13	330.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.660	+1.20%	5	Medium
15	Iker Lecuona	02:01.254	+1.252	10	327.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
16	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.280	+1.278	12	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
17	Jorge Martin	02:01.298	+1.296	11	337.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Joan Mir	02:01.348	+1.346	11	329.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	02:01.503	+1.501	12	328.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Jake Dixon	02:02.056	+2.054	12	321.4	Medium / Soft	2:02.633	+2.01%	6	Soft
21	Luca Marini	02:02.253	+2.251	12	330.2	Medium / Medium	2:02.767	+2.12%	8	Medium

Q1 · 28.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:59.288	—	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:59.509	+0.221	7	331.2	Soft / Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	01:59.553	+0.265	5	337.5	Medium / Soft
4	Luca Marini	01:59.764	+0.476	7	334.3	Medium / Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.881	+0.593	7	331.2	Soft / Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:59.997	+0.709	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	02:00.117	+0.829	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
8	Iker Lecuona	02:00.131	+0.843	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	02:00.217	+0.929	7	333.3	Medium / Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	02:00.391	+1.103	7	331.2	Medium / Soft
11	Jake Dixon	02:00.869	+1.581	7	325.3	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 28.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Pol Espargaro	01:58.889	—	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.911	+0.022	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.925	+0.036	6	332.3	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:59.074	+0.185	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:59.086	+0.197	7	335.4	Medium / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.273	+0.384	7	334.3	Soft / Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:59.368	+0.479	6	337.5	missing / missing
8	Valentino Rossi	01:59.531	+0.642	7	332.3	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:59.579	+0.690	6	338.5	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:59.639	+0.750	7	331.2	missing / missing
11	Joan Mir	01:59.763	+0.874	7	329.2	Soft / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:59.977	+1.088	7	332.3	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 29.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.325	—	10	333.3	Soft / Medium	2:00.886	—	8	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.351	+0.026	8	327.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Pol Espargaro	02:00.460	+0.135	10	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.649	+0.63%	5	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	02:00.554	+0.229	9	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Iker Lecuona	02:00.584	+0.259	10	325.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.751	+0.72%	7	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.612	+0.287	10	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.987	+0.08%	7	Medium
7	Joan Mir	02:00.692	+0.367	9	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.455	+0.47%	5	Soft
8	Alex Rins	02:00.697	+0.372	9	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.044	+0.96%	5	Soft
9	Jack Miller	02:00.712	+0.387	10	336.4	Soft / Medium	2:01.292	+0.34%	5	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	02:00.851	+0.526	6	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Alex Marquez	02:01.254	+0.929	10	334.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	02:01.257	+0.932	10	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.671	+0.65%	7	Soft
13	Luca Marini	02:01.258	+0.933	10	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.538	+0.54%	7	Soft
14	Brad Binder	02:01.324	+0.999	10	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.446	+0.46%	5	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	02:01.325	+1.000	9	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:02.939	+1.70%	5	Soft
16	Cal Crutchlow	02:01.351	+1.026	10	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.152	+1.05%	6	Soft
17	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.366	+1.041	9	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.829	+0.78%	5	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.512	+1.187	10	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.854	+0.80%	6	Soft
19	Valentino Rossi	02:01.801	+1.476	10	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.151	+1.05%	5	Medium
20	Jake Dixon	02:01.947	+1.622	7	324.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Enea Bastianini	02:01.995	+1.670	6	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 29.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	40:20.579	25	20	Soft / Medium	2:00.805	—	17	Medium
2	Alex Rins	+2.663	20	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.956	+0.13%	18	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+4.105	16	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.002	+0.16%	18	Medium
4	Jack Miller	+4.254	13	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.960	+0.13%	17	Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	+8.462	11	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.195	+0.32%	17	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+12.189	10	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.260	+0.38%	17	Medium
7	Iker Lecuona	+13.560	9	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.346	+0.45%	15	Medium
8	Alex Marquez	+14.044	8	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.330	+0.44%	15	Soft
9	Joan Mir	+16.226	7	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.130	+0.27%	16	Medium
10	Danilo Petrucci	+16.287	6	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.339	+0.44%	18	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	+16.339	5	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.435	+0.52%	18	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	+17.696	4	20	Medium / Soft	2:01.477	+0.56%	16	Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+18.285	3	20	Soft / Soft	2:01.353	+0.45%	15	Soft
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+20.913	2	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.572	+0.64%	18	Medium
15	Luca Marini	+21.018	1	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.526	+0.60%	18	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	+22.022	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.798	+0.82%	17	Medium
17	Cal Crutchlow	+23.232	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.782	+0.81%	18	Medium
18	Valentino Rossi	+29.758	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.777	+0.81%	18	Medium
19	Jake Dixon	+50.845	0	20	Soft / Medium	2:03.210	+1.99%	18	Medium
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	1	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Marc Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.011	—	+0.209	Medium	12
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.145	+0.134	+0.221	Medium	5
Jorge Martin	2:01.372*	+0.361	+0.457	Medium	4
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.445*	+0.434	+0.574	Medium	3
Alex Rins	2:01.446	+0.435	+0.217	Medium	6
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.571*	+0.560	+0.193	Medium	4
Brad Binder	2:01.662*	+0.651	+0.327	Medium	3
Pol Espargaro	2:01.669*	+0.658	+0.406	Medium	4
Iker Lecuona	2:01.831*	+0.820	+0.094	Medium	3
Enea Bastianini	2:01.844*	+0.833	+0.319	Medium	3
Cal Crutchlow	2:02.126*	+1.115	+0.729	Medium	4
Luca Marini	2:02.253	+1.242	+0.308	Medium	5

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Johann Zarco	56%	1 ✓
2	Takaaki Nakagami	42%	5
3	Cal Crutchlow	34%	9
4	Alex Marquez	20%	7
5	Alex Rins	17%	2 ✓
6	Iker Lecuona	9%	8
7	Danilo Petrucci	9%	6
8	Enea Bastianini	4%	3
9	Luca Marini	2%	4
10	Miguel Oliveira	3%	10
11	Jake Dixon	4%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	36%	68%	92%	7
2	Fabio Quartararo	27%	54%	85%	3
3	Aleix Espargaro	16%	48%	80%	6
4	Jorge Martin	3%	31%	67%	4
5	Pol Espargaro	3%	27%	53%	1
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	21%	55%	2
7	Valentino Rossi	1%	12%	42%	8
8	Joan Mir	2%	12%	36%	11
9	Brad Binder	1%	7%	27%	12
10	Marc Marquez	2%	7%	21%	5
11	Johann Zarco	3%	12%	27%	9
12	Alex Rins	0%	3%	17%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pol Espargaro	1	27%	55%	69%	79%	20%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	2	18%	42%	56%	67%	31%	14
Fabio Quartararo	3	17%	48%	67%	84%	14%	1
Jorge Martin	4	12%	39%	59%	79%	17%	—
Marc Marquez	5	8%	31%	53%	80%	15%	—
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	22%	40%	68%	26%	3
Jack Miller	7	4%	18%	34%	65%	26%	4
Valentino Rossi	8	3%	15%	35%	75%	12%	18
Johann Zarco	9	2%	9%	23%	65%	17%	11
Alex Rins	10	1%	7%	17%	59%	21%	2
Joan Mir	11	1%	5%	14%	56%	17%	9
Brad Binder	12	0%	3%	10%	47%	20%	6
Enea Bastianini	13	0%	2%	7%	38%	25%	12
Luca Marini	14	0%	2%	6%	41%	7%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	14%	13
Danilo Petrucci	16	0%	1%	2%	22%	20%	10
Alex Marquez	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	23%	8
Iker Lecuona	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	32%	7
Cal Crutchlow	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	27%	17
Miguel Oliveira	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	17%	16
Jake Dixon	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	181	—
2	Joan Mir	134	−47
3	Francesco Bagnaia	134	−47
4	Johann Zarco	132	−49
5	Jack Miller	105	−76
6	Brad Binder	98	−83

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2019 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

2/20

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.013 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Marc Marquez (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2019 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Maverick Viñales	2:00.468	—	+0.292	Hard	18
Marc Marquez	2:00.475	+0.007	+0.210	Hard	18
Alex Rins	2:00.483	+0.015	+0.217	Hard	18
Valentino Rossi	2:01.102	+0.634	+0.508	Hard	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:01.136	+0.668	+0.512	Hard	18
Jack Miller	2:01.258	+0.790	+0.105	Hard	18
Cal Crutchlow	2:01.386	+0.918	+0.729	Hard	18
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.435	+0.967	+0.574	Hard	18
Pol Espargaro	2:01.438	+0.970	+0.406	Hard	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.561	+1.093	+0.209	Hard	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

2019 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	90%	+0.86%	+0.027	1	3	8.1
Medium	10%	+1.67%	+0.007	0	0	15.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.