Round 13 of 18 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2021

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

10.09 – 12.09.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:44.422	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.673	20
3	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.911	16
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+9.269	13
5	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+11.928	11
6	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+13.757	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.064	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.575	8
9	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+16.615	7
10	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.904	6
11	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+17.124	5
12	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+17.710	4
13	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.680	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+22.703	2
15	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+25.723	1
16	Cal Crutchlow	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+26.413	0
17	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+26.620	0
18	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+27.128	0
19	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+32.517	0
20	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+39.073	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Jake Dixon	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	3.2 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:48.681	—	+0.210	Soft	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:48.701	+0.020	+0.221	Soft	21
Joan Mir	1:48.851	+0.170	+0.562	Soft	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:48.897	+0.216	+0.209	Soft	21
Jack Miller	1:49.178	+0.497	+0.105	Soft	21
Iker Lecuona	1:49.254	+0.573	+0.094	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:49.276	+0.595	+0.359	Soft	19
Brad Binder	1:49.302	+0.621	+0.327	Soft	21
Enea Bastianini	1:49.322	+0.641	+0.319	Soft	19
Jorge Martin	1:49.336	+0.655	+0.457	Soft	20
Alex Rins	1:49.348	+0.667	+0.217	Soft	20
Pol Espargaro	1:49.479	+0.798	+0.406	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.494	+0.813	+0.275	Soft	20
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.632	+0.951	+0.574	Soft	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:49.661	+0.980	+0.193	Soft	21
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.729	+1.048	+0.729	Soft	20
Johann Zarco	1:49.787	+1.106	+0.344	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:49.788	+1.107	+0.292	Soft	21
Valentino Rossi	1:49.969	+1.288	+0.508	Soft	21
Luca Marini	1:50.288	+1.607	+0.308	Soft	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.673 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P20 to P12.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:30	Alex Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:01:49		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:03:41	Jake Dixon	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	20	15	+5
Miguel Oliveira	18	14	+4
Iker Lecuona	13	10	+3
Fabio Quartararo	3	7	−4
Cal Crutchlow	15	19	−4
Johann Zarco	10	13	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	7→3	+3.7
Alex Rins	20→12	+3.0
Brad Binder	12→7	+2.9
Pol Espargaro	8→13	−5.7
Luca Marini	17→20	−6.9
Johann Zarco	10→17	−8.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.61%	+0.035	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.0 °C

Air

max 29.7 °C

39%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 36 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.048	—	20	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:50.175	+0.42%	6	Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:49.019	+0.971	18	339.6	missing / missing	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:49.193	+1.145	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:49.713	—	12	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:49.206	+1.158	18	342.9	Medium / Medium	1:50.306	+0.54%	6	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:49.262	+1.214	21	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:50.220	+0.46%	14	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.313	+1.265	18	342.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Johann Zarco	01:49.372	+1.324	17	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:50.466	+0.69%	4	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:49.451	+1.403	19	334.4	Medium / Medium	1:49.926	+0.19%	10	Medium
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.459	+1.411	21	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.275	+0.51%	16	Medium
10	Pol Espargaro	01:49.589	+1.541	18	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:49.881	+0.15%	6	Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	01:49.652	+1.604	17	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.752	+0.95%	12	Medium
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.670	+1.622	17	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:52.059	+2.14%	9	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.741	+1.693	18	339.6	Medium / Medium	1:50.423	+0.65%	9	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:49.784	+1.736	18	338.6	Soft / Medium	1:50.180	+0.43%	6	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:49.936	+1.888	18	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:51.862	+1.96%	5	Medium
16	Iker Lecuona	01:49.942	+1.894	13	340.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Jorge Martin	01:49.947	+1.899	17	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:52.420	+2.47%	5	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.964	+1.916	19	344.0	Medium / Medium	1:50.800	+0.99%	7	Medium
19	Maverick Viñales	01:50.187	+2.139	21	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:50.971	+1.15%	11	Medium
20	Valentino Rossi	01:50.299	+2.251	12	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Brad Binder	01:50.353	+2.305	17	346.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Jake Dixon	01:51.188	+3.140	20	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:54.254	+4.14%	11	Medium

FP2 · 10.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:47.613	—	17	344.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.886	+0.273	19	346.1	Hard / Soft	1:49.358	+0.44%	5	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.897	+0.284	19	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.622	+0.68%	5	Hard
4	Johann Zarco	01:47.988	+0.375	18	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:50.044	+1.07%	5	Hard
5	Jorge Martin	01:48.023	+0.410	17	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.032	+0.419	15	349.5	missing / missing	—			—
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.034	+0.421	17	336.5	Hard / Soft	1:48.882	—	5	Hard
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.057	+0.444	19	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.449	+0.52%	5	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:48.086	+0.473	17	344.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:48.166	+0.553	16	348.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Alex Rins	01:48.267	+0.654	20	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.558	+0.62%	6	Hard
12	Brad Binder	01:48.278	+0.665	17	345.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Alex Marquez	01:48.314	+0.701	19	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.351	+0.738	17	338.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Luca Marini	01:48.456	+0.843	18	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:51.075	+2.01%	5	Hard
16	Iker Lecuona	01:48.526	+0.913	18	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.623	+1.010	20	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.473	+0.54%	6	Soft
18	Valentino Rossi	01:48.649	+1.036	17	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Maverick Viñales	01:48.755	+1.142	20	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:50.715	+1.68%	8	Hard
20	Marc Marquez	01:48.827	+1.214	15	347.3	Hard / Hard	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:48.886	+1.273	16	341.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Jake Dixon	01:49.987	+2.374	17	336.5	Medium / Hard	1:51.173	+2.10%	4	Hard

FP3 · 11.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.926	—	19	339.6	— / —	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.949	+0.023	17	345.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:46.982	+0.056	19	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.532	—	6	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.984	+0.058	19	344.0	— / —	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:47.059	+0.133	18	340.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:47.120	+0.194	18	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.630	+1.01%	10	Soft
7	Pol Espargaro	01:47.134	+0.208	19	344.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Marc Marquez	01:47.185	+0.259	19	339.6	— / —	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.256	+0.330	17	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:47.276	+0.350	16	344.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:47.328	+0.402	17	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.353	+0.427	18	341.8	— / —	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.389	+0.463	19	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:47.396	+0.470	19	344.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:47.551	+0.625	19	340.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:47.673	+0.747	17	341.8	— / —	—			—
17	Maverick Viñales	01:47.789	+0.863	17	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.490	+0.88%	6	Soft
18	Brad Binder	01:47.805	+0.879	18	349.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.044	+0.47%	6	Soft
19	Iker Lecuona	01:47.829	+0.903	18	344.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:48.093	+1.167	17	341.8	— / —	—			—
21	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.397	+1.471	18	337.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Jake Dixon	01:48.422	+1.496	16	334.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 11.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.116	—	13	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:48.316	—	5	Soft
2	Enea Bastianini	01:48.264	+0.148	12	341.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.299	+0.183	16	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:48.856	+0.50%	14	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.413	+0.297	14	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:48.702	+0.36%	7	Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:48.446	+0.330	14	340.7	Hard / Soft	1:48.874	+0.52%	7	Soft
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.458	+0.342	15	341.8	Hard / Medium	1:48.970	+0.60%	6	Medium
7	Jorge Martin	01:48.492	+0.376	13	342.9	Hard / Soft	1:49.159	+0.78%	5	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:48.497	+0.381	14	339.6	Hard / Soft	1:48.860	+0.50%	8	Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:48.514	+0.398	12	335.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Johann Zarco	01:48.524	+0.408	13	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.626	+0.510	17	344.0	Hard / Soft	1:49.012	+0.64%	15	Soft
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.692	+0.576	14	336.5	Hard / Soft	1:49.451	+1.05%	9	Soft
13	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.732	+0.616	14	335.4	Hard / Soft	1:49.432	+1.03%	10	Soft
14	Brad Binder	01:48.819	+0.703	13	345.0	Hard / Soft	1:49.506	+1.10%	10	Soft
15	Valentino Rossi	01:48.891	+0.775	15	336.5	Hard / Soft	1:49.729	+1.31%	11	Hard
16	Alex Marquez	01:48.913	+0.797	14	339.6	Hard / Soft	1:49.089	+0.71%	5	Soft
17	Iker Lecuona	01:48.982	+0.866	14	338.6	Hard / Soft	1:49.418	+1.02%	6	Soft
18	Alex Rins	01:49.148	+1.032	13	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.159	+1.043	13	334.4	Hard / Soft	1:49.455	+1.05%	4	Soft
20	Maverick Viñales	01:49.186	+1.070	13	337.5	Hard / Soft	1:49.573	+1.16%	6	Soft
21	Luca Marini	01:49.231	+1.115	12	339.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Jake Dixon	01:49.676	+1.560	13	331.3	Hard / Hard	1:49.986	+1.54%	4	Hard

Q1 · 11.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:47.293	—	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
2	Brad Binder	01:47.344	+0.051	7	342.9	Hard / Soft
3	Iker Lecuona	01:47.508	+0.215	6	336.5	Hard / Soft
4	Alex Marquez	01:47.542	+0.249	7	339.6	Medium / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.613	+0.320	7	336.5	Medium / Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.708	+0.415	7	333.4	Hard / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:47.741	+0.448	7	341.8	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.750	+0.457	7	337.5	Hard / Soft
9	Maverick Viñales	01:47.764	+0.471	7	340.7	Hard / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:47.790	+0.497	8	336.5	Medium / Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:47.863	+0.570	7	336.5	Hard / Soft
12	Jake Dixon	01:48.146	+0.853	7	331.3	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 11.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.322	—	7	339.6	Hard / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:46.688	+0.366	7	337.5	Soft / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.719	+0.397	7	335.4	Hard / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:46.736	+0.414	7	338.6	Hard / Soft
5	Jorge Martin	01:46.878	+0.556	7	338.6	Medium / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.883	+0.561	7	339.6	Hard / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:47.162	+0.840	8	333.4	Medium / Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:47.194	+0.872	8	338.6	Hard / Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:47.278	+0.956	6	337.5	Medium / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:47.288	+0.966	5	340.7	Medium / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.366	+1.044	7	333.4	Hard / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:47.932	+1.610	7	337.5	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 12.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:48.054	—	10	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.811	—	7	Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.084	+0.030	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Joan Mir	01:48.332	+0.278	10	335.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	01:48.454	+0.400	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:49.183	+0.34%	8	Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.537	+0.483	11	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:48.953	+0.13%	6	Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:48.623	+0.569	11	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.086	+0.25%	8	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:48.668	+0.614	9	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.718	+0.664	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.024	+0.20%	7	Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:48.744	+0.690	11	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:51.186	+2.18%	7	Soft
10	Marc Marquez	01:48.785	+0.731	6	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:48.805	+0.751	11	342.9	Soft / Soft	1:50.267	+1.34%	7	Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:48.861	+0.807	11	342.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.064	+0.23%	7	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	01:48.908	+0.854	11	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.175	+0.34%	7	Soft
14	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.964	+0.910	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.468	+0.60%	6	Soft
15	Valentino Rossi	01:49.005	+0.951	11	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.733	+0.85%	7	Soft
16	Iker Lecuona	01:49.036	+0.982	11	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.470	+0.61%	8	Soft
17	Danilo Petrucci	01:49.052	+0.998	11	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:49.546	+0.68%	7	Soft
18	Alex Marquez	01:49.133	+1.079	9	336.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Luca Marini	01:49.162	+1.108	11	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.513	+0.65%	6	Soft
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.264	+1.210	11	336.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.984	+1.08%	9	Soft
21	Jake Dixon	01:49.400	+1.346	11	332.3	Medium / Soft	1:50.012	+1.10%	6	Soft
22	Maverick Viñales	01:50.269	+2.215	11	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:50.766	+1.80%	7	Soft

Race · 12.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:44.422	25	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.701	+0.02%	21	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+0.673	20	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.681	—	21	Soft
3	Joan Mir	+3.911	16	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.851	+0.16%	21	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+9.269	13	23	Hard / Soft	1:48.897	+0.20%	21	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+11.928	11	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.178	+0.46%	21	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	+13.757	10	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.322	+0.59%	19	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+14.064	9	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.302	+0.57%	21	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	+16.575	8	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.494	+0.75%	20	Soft
9	Jorge Martin	+16.615	7	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.336	+0.60%	20	Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.904	6	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.276	+0.55%	19	Soft
11	Iker Lecuona	+17.124	5	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.254	+0.53%	21	Soft
12	Alex Rins	+17.710	4	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.348	+0.61%	20	Soft
13	Pol Espargaro	+19.680	3	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.479	+0.73%	21	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	+22.703	2	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.661	+0.90%	21	Soft
15	Danilo Petrucci	+25.723	1	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.632	+0.88%	21	Soft
16	Cal Crutchlow	+26.413	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.729	+0.96%	20	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	+26.620	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.787	+1.02%	21	Soft
18	Maverick Viñales	+27.128	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.788	+1.02%	21	Soft
19	Valentino Rossi	+32.517	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.969	+1.19%	21	Soft
20	Luca Marini	+39.073	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:50.288	+1.48%	21	Soft
Out on lap 1	Alex Marquez		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Jake Dixon		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:49.085*	—	+0.562	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:49.794*	+0.709	+0.308	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	8
2	Alex Rins	41%	10
3	Maverick Viñales	34%	9
4	Brad Binder	20%	2 ✓
5	Cal Crutchlow	17%	5
6	Johann Zarco	9%	1 ✓
7	Alex Marquez	9%	4
8	Danilo Petrucci	4%	6
9	Jake Dixon	2%	12
10	Luca Marini	3%	7
11	Iker Lecuona	4%	3
12	Valentino Rossi	2%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	36%	67%	91%	6
2	Joan Mir	27%	54%	85%	7
3	Jack Miller	16%	47%	80%	2
4	Jorge Martin	3%	31%	67%	5
5	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	27%	53%	11
6	Enea Bastianini	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Brad Binder	1%	12%	42%	12
8	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	36%	10
9	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	7%	27%	1
10	Fabio Quartararo	2%	7%	21%	3
11	Marc Marquez	3%	12%	27%	4
12	Pol Espargaro	0%	3%	16%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	25%	51%	62%	69%	30%	1
Jack Miller	2	20%	48%	61%	73%	26%	5
Fabio Quartararo	3	17%	48%	67%	83%	14%	8
Marc Marquez	4	13%	39%	60%	80%	15%	2
Jorge Martin	5	8%	28%	49%	72%	23%	9
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	22%	41%	68%	26%	4
Joan Mir	7	5%	19%	40%	75%	17%	3
Pol Espargaro	8	3%	14%	31%	69%	20%	13
Enea Bastianini	9	2%	9%	21%	61%	23%	6
Johann Zarco	10	1%	6%	19%	62%	17%	17
Takaaki Nakagami	11	1%	6%	16%	63%	14%	10
Brad Binder	12	1%	3%	10%	49%	19%	7
Iker Lecuona	13	0%	3%	7%	37%	31%	11
Alex Marquez	14	0%	2%	5%	32%	22%	—
Cal Crutchlow	15	0%	1%	4%	26%	27%	16
Danilo Petrucci	16	0%	1%	2%	22%	20%	15
Luca Marini	17	0%	1%	2%	19%	6%	20
Miguel Oliveira	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	17%	14
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	11%	12%	18
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	20%	12
Valentino Rossi	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	19
Jake Dixon	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	206	—
2	Joan Mir	141	−65
3	Johann Zarco	137	−69
4	Francesco Bagnaia	136	−70
5	Jack Miller	118	−88
6	Brad Binder	108	−98

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/23

Laps led by the winner

Alex Rins

0.263 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P10 to P1.

Longest battle: Bradley Smith vs Tito Rabat (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Joan Mir	1:49.119	—	+0.562	Soft	21
Alex Marquez	1:49.163	+0.044	+0.356	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:49.264	+0.145	+0.217	Soft	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:49.366	+0.247	+0.359	Soft	21
Maverick Viñales	1:49.450	+0.331	+0.292	Soft	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:49.470	+0.351	+0.512	Soft	20
Cal Crutchlow	1:49.472	+0.353	+0.729	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.480	+0.361	+0.226	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:49.495	+0.376	+0.344	Soft	21
Iker Lecuona	1:49.607	+0.488	+0.094	Soft	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	76%	+0.45%	+0.038	1	3	10.7
Medium	24%	+0.39%	+0.033	0	0	9.8

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.