Round 17 of 18 Aftermath

Algarve Grand Prix 2021

Autódromo Internacional do Algarve Portugal

4.590 m · 25 laps · since 2020

05.11 – 07.11.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	38:17.720	25
2	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.478	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+6.402	16
4	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+6.453	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+7.882	11
6	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+9.573	10
7	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+10.144	9
8	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+10.742	8
9	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+13.840	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.487	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+20.912	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+22.450	4
13	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+22.752	3
14	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+26.207	2
15	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+26.284	1
16	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+26.828	0
17	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+27.863	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.78 / 0.78	2.2 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

2.478 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P22 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Jack Miller (20 laps).

There was a red flag.

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:01:18	Danilo Petrucci	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:12:50	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:34:50	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:38:57	Iker Lecuona	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:38:57	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:39:33		Red flag	Red flag

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	17	12	+5
Brad Binder	19	15	+4
Aleix Espargaro	14	10	+4
Luca Marini	12	17	−5
Johann Zarco	5	9	−4
Maverick Viñales	18	21	−3

Race stopped with a red flag: this compares with Saturday’s grid, but the restart used the order from the first part. Places gained are approximate.

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Takaaki Nakagami	22→11	+5.3
Brad Binder	19→10	+4.4
Alex Marquez	8→4	+3.3
Jorge Martin	4→7	−2.2
Maverick Viñales	18→16	−2.2
Franco Morbidelli	9→17	−9.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	52%	+0.50%	+0.000	0	0	10.2
Medium	48%	+0.31%	+0.011	1	3	7.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

18.7 °C

Air

max 19.0 °C

23%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

13 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Takaaki Nakagami	56%	12
2	Johann Zarco	41%	1 ✓
3	Iker Lecuona	33%	2 ✓
4	Enea Bastianini	21%	3
5	Miguel Oliveira	17%	7
6	Aleix Espargaro	10%	4
7	Danilo Petrucci	8%	5
8	Valentino Rossi	5%	6
9	Brad Binder	2%	9
10	Stefan Bradl	3%	10
11	Maverick Viñales	3%	8
12	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	66%	90%	1
2	Fabio Quartararo	27%	54%	85%	7
3	Joan Mir	15%	48%	80%	3
4	Jack Miller	3%	31%	67%	2
5	Alex Marquez	4%	27%	53%	8
6	Franco Morbidelli	6%	21%	55%	9
7	Alex Rins	1%	12%	41%	11
8	Pol Espargaro	2%	12%	36%	6
9	Luca Marini	2%	8%	28%	12
10	Jorge Martin	2%	8%	22%	4
11	Johann Zarco	3%	12%	28%	5
12	Iker Lecuona	0%	3%	16%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	25%	49%	60%	68%	30%	1
Jack Miller	2	20%	48%	62%	72%	26%	3
Joan Mir	3	18%	48%	66%	81%	17%	2
Jorge Martin	4	11%	34%	51%	68%	29%	7
Johann Zarco	5	8%	32%	53%	78%	17%	5
Pol Espargaro	6	6%	24%	44%	73%	19%	6
Fabio Quartararo	7	4%	21%	42%	79%	13%	—
Alex Marquez	8	3%	13%	29%	65%	25%	4
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	10%	26%	67%	17%	17
Iker Lecuona	10	1%	6%	16%	50%	33%	—
Alex Rins	11	1%	4%	14%	54%	20%	8
Luca Marini	12	1%	4%	12%	58%	5%	12
Enea Bastianini	13	0%	3%	9%	43%	19%	9
Aleix Espargaro	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	26%	—
Danilo Petrucci	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	20%	—
Valentino Rossi	16	0%	1%	3%	26%	12%	13
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	18%	18%	—
Maverick Viñales	18	0%	0%	2%	14%	11%	16
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	17%	10
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	15
Andrea Dovizioso	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	14
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	13%	11

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,546 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Alex Marquez +0.56%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S2	Joan Mir +0.03%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Joan Mir +0.53%	Jack Miller +0.63%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.42%	Alex Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Alex Marquez +0.56%	Jack Miller +0.65%
S2	Joan Mir +0.03%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Joan Mir +0.53%	Jack Miller +0.63%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Joan Mir +0.42%	Alex Marquez +0.43%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	267	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	202	−65
3	Joan Mir	175	−92
4	Johann Zarco	152	−115
5	Jack Miller	149	−118
6	Marc Marquez	142	−125

Full championship →

Winners here

2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati

Attrition here

Average here 23% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2021	5/22	23%