Round 4 of 18 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2021

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

30.04 – 02.05.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:05.602	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.912	20
3	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+2.516	16
4	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+3.206	13
5	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+4.256	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+5.164	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.651	9
8	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+7.161	8
9	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+10.494	7
10	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.776	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.766	5
12	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Team Honda HRC	+17.243	4
13	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+18.907	3
14	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+20.095	2
15	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+20.922	1
16	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+22.731	0
17	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+23.277	0
18	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+30.314	0
19	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+37.912	0
20	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+38.234	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 30%	Jack Miller · 13% · from P3	0.73 / 0.73	2.6 / 2.7

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/25

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

1.912 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P21 to P15.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Maverick Viñales (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:31		Jump start	jump start
Race	14:01:51	Alex Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:40	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:40	Alex Rins	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:55	Enea Bastianini	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:47	Brad Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:00	Enea Bastianini	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 3 seconds penalty for rider #27 LECUONA in accordance with article 1.21.2

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Joan Mir	10	6	+4
Iker Lecuona	21	18	+3
Aleix Espargaro	8	5	+3
Johann Zarco	6	11	−5
Fabio Quartararo	1	4	−3
Luca Marini	18	21	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Joan Mir	10→5	+3.6
Jack Miller	3→1	+3.1
Francesco Bagnaia	4→2	+2.8
Valentino Rossi	17→16	−2.9
Fabio Quartararo	1→13	−10.2
Alex Rins	9→20	−12.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.31%	+0.004	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

20.8 °C

Air

max 21.6 °C

33%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 24 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Franco Morbidelli	57%	1 ✓
2	Marc Marquez	43%	4
3	Brad Binder	32%	2 ✓
4	Alex Marquez	20%	10
5	Valentino Rossi	18%	7
6	Miguel Oliveira	10%	6
7	Pol Espargaro	8%	3
8	Luca Marini	4%	8
9	Lorenzo Savadori	2%	12
10	Enea Bastianini	3%	5
11	Danilo Petrucci	3%	9
12	Tito Rabat	1%	13
13	Iker Lecuona	0%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Takaaki Nakagami	37%	69%	92%	5
2	Fabio Quartararo	26%	51%	84%	1
3	Stefan Bradl	17%	50%	80%	12
4	Joan Mir	4%	33%	69%	10
5	Aleix Espargaro	4%	27%	54%	8
6	Maverick Viñales	6%	22%	56%	7
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	11%	42%	4
8	Johann Zarco	2%	11%	34%	6
9	Alex Rins	1%	8%	29%	9
10	Jack Miller	2%	7%	21%	3
11	Franco Morbidelli	1%	9%	25%	2
12	Brad Binder	0%	2%	16%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	30%	58%	71%	80%	17%	13
Franco Morbidelli	2	23%	52%	68%	79%	19%	3
Jack Miller	3	13%	39%	56%	72%	26%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	4	9%	31%	46%	62%	35%	2
Takaaki Nakagami	5	8%	33%	55%	80%	14%	4
Johann Zarco	6	5%	25%	46%	75%	18%	8
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	21%	42%	78%	12%	7
Aleix Espargaro	8	3%	13%	29%	65%	25%	6
Alex Rins	9	2%	9%	24%	63%	20%	20
Joan Mir	10	1%	6%	18%	61%	18%	5
Brad Binder	11	1%	5%	14%	50%	22%	—
Stefan Bradl	12	1%	4%	10%	49%	19%	12
Pol Espargaro	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	21%	10
Marc Marquez	14	0%	2%	6%	38%	13%	9
Enea Bastianini	15	0%	1%	4%	31%	13%	—
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	1%	2%	25%	13%	11
Valentino Rossi	17	0%	1%	1%	17%	12%	16
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	13%	15
Danilo Petrucci	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	20%	14
Alex Marquez	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	22%	—
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	34%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%	19
Tito Rabat	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	18

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Andrea Iannone +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	61	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	46	−15
3	Maverick Viñales	41	−20
4	Johann Zarco	40	−21
5	Joan Mir	38	−23
6	Aleix Espargaro	25	−36

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

17/25

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

4.603 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P8.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Takaaki Nakagami (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:38.661	—	+0.210	Soft	17
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.880	+0.219	+0.275	Soft	23
Brad Binder	1:39.066	+0.405	+0.327	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:39.172	+0.511	+0.105	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.199	+0.538	+0.512	Soft	23
Pol Espargaro	1:39.266	+0.605	+0.406	Soft	23
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.291	+0.630	+0.226	Soft	23
Maverick Viñales	1:39.339	+0.678	+0.292	Soft	23
Valentino Rossi	1:39.422	+0.761	+0.508	Soft	16
Francesco Bagnaia	1:39.440	+0.779	+0.221	Soft	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.78%	+0.028	1	3	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.