Round 7 of 22 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2026

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 15 corners · 23 laps · since 1976

29.05 – 31.05.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	30%	59%	72%	81%	18%	4
Raul Fernandez	2	23%	59%	77%	91%	7%	1
Jorge Martin	3	14%	48%	68%	86%	10%	2
Marc Marquez	4	11%	39%	63%	86%	11%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	5	6%	28%	54%	85%	9%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	6	5%	22%	44%	80%	11%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	15%	34%	74%	14%	3
Diogo Moreira	8	2%	9%	26%	70%	15%	10
Franco Morbidelli	9	1%	7%	19%	70%	8%	—
Pedro Acosta	10	1%	4%	13%	60%	13%	9
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	3%	10%	51%	12%	—
Alex Rins	12	1%	3%	7%	47%	8%	12
Ai Ogura	13	1%	2%	5%	38%	3%	8
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	3%	25%	18%	11
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	2%	17%	29%	—
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	1%	14%	13%	13
Jack Miller	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	8%	16
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	12%	14
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	11%	15
Toprak Razgatlioglu	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	23%	17
Michele Pirro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	18
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	24%	57%	74%	83%	15%	1
Raul Fernandez	2	24%	54%	70%	80%	18%	9
Jorge Martin	3	23%	55%	71%	79%	21%	2
Marc Marquez	4	4%	20%	44%	79%	17%	7
Fermin Aldeguer	5	5%	25%	50%	80%	16%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	6	4%	22%	42%	71%	26%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	13%	45%	68%	83%	14%	5
Diogo Moreira	8	0%	1%	6%	46%	18%	10
Franco Morbidelli	9	1%	5%	17%	67%	16%	14
Pedro Acosta	10	1%	7%	22%	71%	15%	6
Enea Bastianini	11	0%	1%	6%	47%	18%	—
Alex Rins	12	0%	1%	3%	38%	19%	—
Ai Ogura	13	1%	6%	20%	63%	24%	4
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	4%	44%	15%	11
Joan Mir	15	0%	0%	0%	11%	38%	12
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	2%	32%	8%	13
Jack Miller	17	0%	0%	0%	8%	25%	15
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	18
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	0%	11%	13%	17
Toprak Razgatlioglu	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	16
Michele Pirro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	19
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio	19% → 45%	+26	4% → 13%
Jorge Martin	42% → 55%	+13	14% → 23%
Ai Ogura	2% → 6%	+4	0% → 1%
Dropping
Marc Marquez	37% → 20%	−17	12% → 4%
Diogo Moreira	14% → 1%	−12	3% → 0%
Fermin Aldeguer	29% → 25%	−4	7% → 5%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%