Round 1 of 22 Aftermath

Thailand Grand Prix 2026

Chang International Circuit Thailand

4.554 m · 12 corners · 26 laps · since 2018

27.02 – 01.03.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	29%	60%	74%	84%	15%	—
Marc Marquez	2	23%	57%	74%	88%	10%	2
Raul Fernandez	3	15%	52%	72%	92%	6%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	10%	36%	60%	83%	14%	8
Jorge Martin	5	6%	27%	54%	87%	7%	5
Pedro Acosta	6	5%	20%	41%	77%	14%	1
Alex Marquez	7	3%	15%	35%	78%	11%	11
Ai Ogura	8	3%	12%	31%	80%	3%	4
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	7%	20%	71%	7%	14
Joan Mir	10	1%	3%	10%	50%	26%	7
Brad Binder	11	1%	3%	9%	49%	18%	6
Johann Zarco	12	0%	2%	6%	38%	22%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	1%	5%	36%	12%	9
Luca Marini	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	12%	10
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	13%	13
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	1%	1%	14%	13%	16
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	8%	19
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	9%	15
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	9%	18
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%	17
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	20
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	33%	64%	76%	83%	16%	1
Marc Marquez	2	24%	57%	74%	82%	16%	—
Raul Fernandez	3	16%	47%	65%	78%	19%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	3%	18%	41%	80%	16%	6
Jorge Martin	5	4%	23%	46%	75%	22%	4
Pedro Acosta	6	15%	47%	68%	80%	17%	2
Alex Marquez	7	1%	7%	23%	67%	22%	—
Ai Ogura	8	3%	19%	40%	70%	26%	5
Franco Morbidelli	9	0%	1%	6%	51%	16%	8
Joan Mir	10	1%	7%	21%	55%	37%	—
Brad Binder	11	1%	6%	20%	72%	14%	7
Johann Zarco	12	0%	1%	7%	49%	18%	11
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	2%	8%	52%	25%	9
Luca Marini	14	0%	1%	4%	43%	8%	10
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	0%	0%	12%	19%	13
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	0%	0%	10%	13%	14
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	13%	16
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	16%	25%	18
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	19%	15
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	18%	12
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	6%	19%	17
Michele Pirro	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	19

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Pedro Acosta	23% → 47%	+25	5% → 15%
Ai Ogura	11% → 19%	+7	2% → 3%
Marco Bezzecchi	59% → 64%	+5	30% → 33%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	40% → 18%	−22	12% → 3%
Alex Marquez	17% → 7%	−9	4% → 1%
Franco Morbidelli	8% → 1%	−7	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 12% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	2/22	9%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	3/21	14%
2022	1/24	4%
2019	2/22	9%