Round 5 of 22 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2026

Le Mans France

4.185 m · 14 corners · 27 laps · since 1969

08.05 – 10.05.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	31%	63%	77%	87%	11%	2
Marc Marquez	2	22%	57%	74%	89%	9%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	3	13%	43%	62%	79%	18%	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	10%	36%	59%	82%	14%	16
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	28%	53%	82%	13%	4
Fabio Quartararo	6	5%	22%	45%	80%	12%	5
Joan Mir	7	3%	14%	30%	63%	28%	6
Jorge Martin	8	2%	12%	30%	77%	8%	1
Ai Ogura	9	2%	7%	21%	75%	3%	7
Alex Marquez	10	1%	6%	15%	61%	11%	8
Johann Zarco	11	1%	4%	9%	48%	22%	10
Alex Rins	12	1%	3%	7%	46%	8%	13
Raul Fernandez	13	1%	2%	6%	39%	6%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	2%	4%	29%	11%	—
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	7%	—
Toprak Razgatlioglu	17	0%	0%	1%	8%	28%	14
Diogo Moreira	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	18%	9
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	8%	15
Fermin Aldeguer	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	9%	11
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	12
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	32%	57%	67%	72%	26%	—
Marc Marquez	2	11%	38%	62%	81%	17%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	3	22%	55%	72%	83%	15%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	2%	13%	31%	77%	15%	4
Pedro Acosta	5	12%	42%	63%	82%	16%	5
Fabio Quartararo	6	4%	19%	42%	82%	13%	6
Joan Mir	7	3%	16%	32%	57%	38%	—
Jorge Martin	8	10%	37%	60%	77%	21%	1
Ai Ogura	9	3%	15%	34%	70%	26%	3
Alex Marquez	10	1%	6%	17%	65%	22%	—
Johann Zarco	11	0%	1%	6%	50%	18%	11
Alex Rins	12	0%	1%	3%	32%	19%	12
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	2%	8%	55%	18%	8
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	0%	2%	30%	17%	7
Luca Marini	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	8%	10
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	0%	0%	12%	16%	14
Toprak Razgatlioglu	17	0%	0%	0%	5%	11%	13
Diogo Moreira	18	0%	0%	2%	29%	11%	—
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	15
Fermin Aldeguer	20	0%	0%	0%	13%	17%	9
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	—
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	13% → 37%	+23	3% → 10%
Pedro Acosta	31% → 42%	+11	8% → 12%
Marco Bezzecchi	45% → 55%	+10	15% → 22%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	39% → 13%	−26	12% → 2%
Marc Marquez	52% → 38%	−15	22% → 11%
Fabio Quartararo	27% → 19%	−8	6% → 4%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%