Round 9 of 22 Aftermath

Czech Grand Prix 2026

CREDITAS Autodrom Brno Czechia

5.403 m · since 1930

19.06 – 21.06.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Ai Ogura	1	33%	69%	85%	96%	2%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	21%	54%	71%	84%	14%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	3	15%	46%	68%	87%	10%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	4	9%	34%	56%	79%	17%	—
Marc Marquez	5	7%	30%	53%	84%	10%	3
Diogo Moreira	6	4%	21%	44%	80%	13%	—
Raul Fernandez	7	4%	17%	38%	81%	7%	6
Pedro Acosta	8	2%	11%	27%	71%	12%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	2%	7%	18%	67%	9%	12
Jorge Martin	10	1%	5%	13%	62%	10%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	11	1%	3%	10%	54%	8%	8
Joan Mir	12	0%	2%	5%	34%	29%	10
Maverick Viñales	13	0%	1%	4%	35%	11%	—
Alex Marquez	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	11%	—
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	12%	13
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	12%	—
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	13%	7
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	8%	14
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	8%	15
Brad Binder	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	9
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	11
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Ai Ogura	1	36%	62%	73%	77%	22%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2	22%	59%	76%	85%	14%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	3	12%	43%	63%	74%	26%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	39%	64%	82%	16%	—
Marc Marquez	5	13%	46%	69%	82%	17%	1
Diogo Moreira	6	3%	19%	47%	80%	15%	11
Raul Fernandez	7	2%	12%	32%	74%	19%	7
Pedro Acosta	8	1%	7%	25%	75%	15%	—
Franco Morbidelli	9	0%	1%	4%	44%	16%	13
Jorge Martin	10	1%	8%	26%	70%	21%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	11	0%	1%	6%	47%	18%	6
Joan Mir	12	0%	1%	6%	40%	39%	5
Maverick Viñales	13	0%	0%	2%	30%	13%	15
Alex Marquez	14	0%	0%	1%	17%	23%	—
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	0%	0%	14%	13%	—
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	2%	34%	8%	8
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	5%	45%	18%	10
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	16
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	—
Brad Binder	20	0%	0%	1%	17%	14%	12
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	8%	8%	14
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	31% → 46%	+15	9% → 13%
Ai Ogura	52% → 62%	+10	26% → 36%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	52% → 59%	+7	21% → 22%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli	10% → 1%	−9	2% → 0%
Pedro Acosta	15% → 7%	−8	3% → 1%
Raul Fernandez	19% → 12%	−7	4% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/20	15%
2025	3/21	14%
2020	3/21	14%
2019	3/23	13%
2018	5/25	20%
2017	3/23	13%