Round 3 of 22 Aftermath

United States Grand Prix 2026

Circuit Of The Americas United States

5.510 m · 20 corners · 20 laps · since 2013

27.03 – 29.03.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1	30%	61%	75%	85%	13%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	2	20%	52%	69%	82%	16%	—
Pedro Acosta	3	14%	46%	68%	84%	14%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	38%	61%	84%	11%	2
Joan Mir	5	6%	24%	44%	67%	27%	15
Marc Marquez	6	6%	23%	47%	84%	9%	17
Jorge Martin	7	5%	19%	41%	83%	7%	1
Alex Marquez	8	3%	13%	30%	75%	10%	4
Luca Marini	9	2%	8%	19%	67%	12%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	10	1%	5%	14%	62%	10%	10
Ai Ogura	11	1%	4%	12%	57%	3%	6
Enea Bastianini	12	1%	3%	7%	45%	11%	3
Raul Fernandez	13	1%	2%	5%	38%	6%	7
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	3%	29%	10%	—
Johann Zarco	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	23%	9
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	0%	1%	15%	13%	11
Toprak Razgatlioglu	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	10%	—
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	17%	12
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	8%	14
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	7%	13
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	16

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1	36%	68%	78%	84%	15%	4
Marco Bezzecchi	2	34%	68%	78%	84%	16%	1
Pedro Acosta	3	3%	22%	45%	76%	17%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	4	13%	42%	61%	75%	25%	10
Joan Mir	5	1%	8%	20%	53%	38%	—
Marc Marquez	6	2%	16%	37%	75%	16%	5
Jorge Martin	7	7%	35%	55%	75%	22%	2
Alex Marquez	8	1%	6%	18%	61%	22%	7
Luca Marini	9	1%	11%	30%	79%	8%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	10	0%	2%	6%	46%	18%	11
Ai Ogura	11	1%	7%	22%	64%	24%	—
Enea Bastianini	12	1%	8%	24%	69%	18%	6
Raul Fernandez	13	1%	8%	23%	67%	19%	8
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	0%	1%	23%	14%	13
Johann Zarco	15	0%	0%	2%	29%	18%	—
Fabio Quartararo	16	0%	0%	1%	20%	13%	17
Toprak Razgatlioglu	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	14%	15
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	14%	12
Jack Miller	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	25%	16
Franco Morbidelli	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	14
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	17% → 35%	+17	4% → 7%
Marco Bezzecchi	53% → 68%	+15	23% → 34%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	59% → 68%	+9	30% → 36%
Dropping
Pedro Acosta	47% → 22%	−25	16% → 3%
Joan Mir	22% → 8%	−15	5% → 1%
Marc Marquez	24% → 16%	−8	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/21	14%
2013	5/23	22%
2012	7/21	33%
2011	4/17	24%
2010	5/17	29%