Round 4 of 22 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2026

Circuito de Jerez - Ángel Nieto Spain

4.428 m · 13 corners · 25 laps · since 1984

24.04 – 26.04.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	33%	65%	80%	90%	9%	1
Johann Zarco	2	19%	50%	65%	76%	23%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	15%	46%	65%	83%	15%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	36%	58%	79%	17%	—
Alex Marquez	5	7%	29%	54%	84%	10%	—
Pedro Acosta	6	5%	22%	43%	79%	13%	12
Jorge Martin	7	3%	17%	40%	82%	7%	—
Enea Bastianini	8	2%	12%	29%	73%	11%	11
Raul Fernandez	9	2%	8%	20%	72%	6%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	10	1%	4%	14%	60%	11%	2
Ai Ogura	11	1%	4%	12%	58%	3%	15
Fermin Aldeguer	12	1%	2%	7%	46%	9%	17
Brad Binder	13	0%	1%	5%	33%	17%	4
Joan Mir	14	0%	1%	3%	23%	27%	—
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	2%	22%	12%	9
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	17%	13
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	13%	7
Franco Morbidelli	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	7%	3
Toprak Razgatlioglu	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	20%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	—
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	9%	10
Jack Miller	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	8%	16
Diogo Moreira	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	14

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	10%	35%	56%	80%	16%	—
Johann Zarco	2	4%	18%	38%	73%	18%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	15%	46%	68%	83%	15%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	4	32%	63%	76%	83%	16%	2
Alex Marquez	5	25%	57%	69%	76%	22%	1
Pedro Acosta	6	1%	5%	16%	59%	16%	10
Jorge Martin	7	5%	21%	41%	72%	21%	4
Enea Bastianini	8	2%	13%	30%	71%	17%	8
Raul Fernandez	9	4%	20%	40%	73%	19%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	10	0%	0%	1%	12%	25%	—
Ai Ogura	11	0%	0%	1%	15%	26%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	12	1%	6%	17%	61%	17%	9
Brad Binder	13	0%	1%	6%	41%	14%	11
Joan Mir	14	2%	10%	22%	52%	39%	15
Luca Marini	15	0%	0%	2%	26%	8%	13
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	20
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	0%	6%	13%	14
Franco Morbidelli	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	16%	12
Toprak Razgatlioglu	19	0%	3%	9%	49%	13%	19
Lorenzo Savadori	20	0%	3%	9%	45%	27%	—
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	19%	16
Jack Miller	22	0%	0%	1%	10%	25%	18
Diogo Moreira	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Alex Marquez	28% → 57%	+29	7% → 25%
Marco Bezzecchi	38% → 63%	+25	12% → 32%
Raul Fernandez	8% → 20%	+12	2% → 4%
Dropping
Johann Zarco	51% → 18%	−33	22% → 4%
Marc Marquez	58% → 35%	−23	30% → 10%
Pedro Acosta	24% → 5%	−19	6% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%