Round 11 of 22 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2026

Sachsenring Germany

3.671 m · 13 corners · 30 laps · since 1998

10.07 – 12.07.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	32%	63%	78%	88%	10%	1
Alex Marquez	2	21%	57%	74%	87%	11%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	14%	46%	66%	84%	13%	3
Raul Fernandez	4	11%	40%	64%	89%	6%	5
Ai Ogura	5	7%	30%	58%	92%	2%	4
Fabio Quartararo	6	4%	20%	43%	80%	11%	9
Franco Morbidelli	7	4%	15%	36%	78%	10%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	8	2%	9%	24%	68%	18%	—
Jorge Martin	9	2%	6%	17%	68%	9%	6
Pedro Acosta	10	1%	4%	12%	59%	13%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	11	1%	4%	10%	53%	10%	7
Jack Miller	12	0%	3%	7%	45%	9%	13
Joan Mir	13	0%	1%	4%	26%	30%	15
Luca Marini	14	0%	1%	3%	26%	13%	11
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	18%	10
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	17%	12
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	13%	14
Toprak Razgatlioglu	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	18%	17
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	8%	16
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	19
Cal Crutchlow	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	36%	67%	78%	83%	16%	1
Alex Marquez	2	23%	56%	70%	77%	23%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3	17%	53%	73%	84%	14%	—
Raul Fernandez	4	10%	38%	61%	80%	18%	3
Ai Ogura	5	8%	35%	58%	76%	21%	2
Fabio Quartararo	6	1%	6%	22%	73%	14%	7
Franco Morbidelli	7	2%	15%	36%	77%	16%	13
Marco Bezzecchi	8	1%	6%	23%	71%	17%	—
Jorge Martin	9	1%	11%	32%	73%	21%	5
Pedro Acosta	10	1%	5%	18%	68%	18%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	11	1%	5%	19%	62%	26%	6
Jack Miller	12	0%	0%	2%	28%	24%	12
Joan Mir	13	0%	0%	1%	14%	39%	—
Luca Marini	14	0%	1%	5%	50%	7%	8
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	0%	2%	28%	13%	11
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	2%	28%	14%	10
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	18%	9
Toprak Razgatlioglu	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	13%	15
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	7%	19%	14
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	—
Cal Crutchlow	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	57% → 67%	+10	28% → 36%
Alex Marquez	48% → 56%	+9	19% → 23%
Ai Ogura	26% → 35%	+8	7% → 8%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	24% → 6%	−18	6% → 1%
Marco Bezzecchi	13% → 6%	−7	3% → 1%
Franco Morbidelli	19% → 15%	−4	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 15% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/20	25%
2025	8/18	44%
2024	2/22	9%
2023	2/19	11%
2022	7/23	30%
2021	3/22	14%