Round 13 of 22 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2026

MotorLand Aragón Spain

5.078 m · 17 corners · 23 laps · since 2010

28.08 – 30.08.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	30%	59%	71%	81%	18%	3
Marc Marquez	2	22%	56%	74%	88%	10%	1
Alex Marquez	3	15%	48%	69%	87%	11%	2
Raul Fernandez	4	12%	41%	66%	89%	8%	8
Jorge Martin	5	7%	28%	55%	86%	9%	5
Pedro Acosta	6	5%	21%	44%	79%	13%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	16%	36%	77%	13%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	8	2%	11%	27%	74%	10%	11
Johann Zarco	9	1%	6%	16%	60%	22%	9
Diogo Moreira	10	1%	4%	13%	59%	16%	7
Fermin Aldeguer	11	1%	4%	10%	55%	8%	6
Franco Morbidelli	12	1%	2%	6%	45%	11%	18
Jack Miller	13	0%	1%	4%	35%	9%	10
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	3%	26%	16%	15
Joan Mir	15	0%	1%	2%	17%	29%	16
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	0%	1%	15%	12%	14
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	11%	—
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	13%	—
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	7%	12
Pol Espargaro	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	17
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	13
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	24%	57%	74%	82%	17%	3
Marc Marquez	2	33%	65%	76%	82%	16%	1
Alex Marquez	3	17%	49%	65%	75%	23%	4
Raul Fernandez	4	3%	16%	39%	77%	18%	—
Jorge Martin	5	7%	31%	54%	77%	20%	5
Pedro Acosta	6	12%	43%	65%	80%	17%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	2%	15%	36%	79%	15%	7
Francesco Bagnaia	8	0%	1%	7%	49%	26%	—
Johann Zarco	9	1%	6%	21%	70%	18%	15
Diogo Moreira	10	1%	10%	31%	79%	12%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	11	1%	6%	21%	71%	17%	6
Franco Morbidelli	12	0%	0%	1%	27%	16%	—
Jack Miller	13	0%	1%	6%	47%	24%	11
Brad Binder	14	0%	0%	1%	22%	14%	10
Joan Mir	15	0%	0%	1%	22%	40%	12
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	0%	1%	22%	19%	8
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	0%	0%	8%	13%	18
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	7%	14
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	20%	20%	13
Pol Espargaro	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	19%	16
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	29%	17

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Pedro Acosta	24% → 43%	+18	6% → 12%
Marc Marquez	51% → 65%	+14	19% → 33%
Alex Marquez	39% → 49%	+10	14% → 17%
Dropping
Raul Fernandez	38% → 16%	−22	12% → 3%
Francesco Bagnaia	12% → 1%	−11	3% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	20% → 15%	−5	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%