Round 2 of 22 Aftermath

Brazilian Grand Prix 2026

Autódromo Internacional de Goiânia - Ayrton Senna Brazil

3.835 m · 15 corners · 25 laps · since 1987

20.03 – 22.03.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1	32%	61%	75%	85%	14%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	2	21%	52%	68%	80%	16%	4
Marc Marquez	3	15%	48%	68%	87%	9%	1
Fabio Quartararo	4	10%	39%	61%	83%	13%	6
Jorge Martin	5	8%	31%	57%	88%	7%	3
Ai Ogura	6	5%	23%	48%	89%	3%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	7	4%	16%	36%	79%	10%	14
Alex Marquez	8	2%	11%	27%	74%	10%	7
Pedro Acosta	9	1%	7%	18%	66%	14%	9
Johann Zarco	10	1%	4%	11%	53%	22%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	11	1%	3%	10%	53%	11%	8
Toprak Razgatlioglu	12	1%	2%	7%	44%	11%	18
Joan Mir	13	0%	1%	4%	29%	26%	—
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	11%	10
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	7%	16
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	6%	12
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	9%	13
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	9%	19
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	12%	11
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	—
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	15
Enea Bastianini	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1	32%	65%	78%	83%	15%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	2	19%	52%	73%	83%	16%	1
Marc Marquez	3	25%	61%	75%	83%	16%	4
Fabio Quartararo	4	4%	21%	48%	82%	13%	16
Jorge Martin	5	11%	40%	62%	76%	22%	2
Ai Ogura	6	6%	25%	49%	72%	25%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	7	0%	2%	8%	52%	18%	8
Alex Marquez	8	2%	13%	33%	72%	22%	6
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	13%	34%	77%	17%	7
Johann Zarco	10	0%	2%	10%	59%	18%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	11	0%	5%	17%	62%	25%	—
Toprak Razgatlioglu	12	0%	0%	0%	16%	16%	17
Joan Mir	13	0%	0%	3%	29%	38%	—
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	7%	52%	16%	13
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	0%	13%	16%	12
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	0%	1%	19%	19%	10
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	1%	18%	19%	14
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	3%	25%	—
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	2%	29%	8%	11
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	16%	13%	18
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	14%	—
Enea Bastianini	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	45% → 61%	+17	14% → 25%
Jorge Martin	27% → 40%	+13	7% → 11%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	59% → 65%	+5	31% → 32%
Dropping
Fabio Quartararo	39% → 21%	−18	12% → 4%
Fermin Aldeguer	18% → 2%	−16	4% → 0%
Johann Zarco	6% → 2%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%