Round 10 of 22 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2026

TT Circuit Assen Netherlands

4.542 m · 18 corners · 26 laps · since 1949

26.06 – 28.06.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	30%	63%	78%	89%	9%	5
Ai Ogura	2	24%	59%	80%	95%	2%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	3	13%	42%	61%	79%	18%	4
Raul Fernandez	4	12%	42%	66%	90%	7%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	27%	51%	84%	10%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	4%	21%	43%	79%	13%	3
Marc Marquez	7	3%	15%	36%	79%	10%	6
Pedro Acosta	8	3%	11%	27%	71%	14%	9
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	7%	18%	67%	12%	10
Joan Mir	10	1%	4%	11%	48%	29%	—
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	3%	9%	51%	13%	8
Alex Marquez	12	1%	2%	6%	43%	11%	13
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	2%	5%	37%	9%	—
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	19%	11
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	17%	14
Alex Rins	16	0%	0%	2%	17%	8%	15
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	14%	12
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	8%	—
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	12%	16
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	18
Cal Crutchlow	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	19
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	11%	36%	57%	76%	21%	3
Ai Ogura	2	33%	61%	71%	77%	22%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	3	16%	48%	69%	83%	16%	—
Raul Fernandez	4	19%	52%	70%	81%	18%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	5	5%	24%	46%	72%	25%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	10%	39%	64%	84%	14%	4
Marc Marquez	7	3%	17%	39%	78%	16%	7
Pedro Acosta	8	1%	9%	26%	74%	16%	—
Fabio Quartararo	9	0%	2%	10%	61%	14%	8
Joan Mir	10	0%	2%	8%	44%	38%	—
Enea Bastianini	11	2%	10%	28%	73%	18%	6
Alex Marquez	12	0%	0%	3%	37%	23%	5
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	1%	4%	47%	15%	—
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	0%	1%	24%	14%	14
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	4%	46%	14%	9
Alex Rins	16	0%	0%	0%	12%	20%	10
Luca Marini	17	0%	0%	0%	12%	8%	11
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	25%	12
Maverick Viñales	19	0%	0%	0%	12%	13%	13
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	15
Cal Crutchlow	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	16
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio	25% → 39%	+14	6% → 10%
Raul Fernandez	39% → 52%	+13	12% → 19%
Ai Ogura	48% → 61%	+12	20% → 33%
Dropping
Jorge Martin	55% → 36%	−19	28% → 11%
Fabio Quartararo	9% → 2%	−7	2% → 0%
Pedro Acosta	14% → 9%	−6	3% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%