Round 8 of 22 Aftermath

Hungarian Grand Prix 2026

Balaton Park Circuit Hungary

05.06 – 07.06.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	32%	62%	76%	88%	10%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	21%	54%	72%	85%	12%	2
Fermin Aldeguer	3	14%	47%	69%	88%	8%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	11%	36%	58%	81%	14%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	29%	53%	83%	11%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	6	4%	21%	41%	76%	17%	3
Raul Fernandez	7	3%	17%	38%	81%	7%	4
Jorge Martin	8	3%	12%	29%	75%	10%	6
Luca Marini	9	1%	6%	18%	64%	13%	12
Ai Ogura	10	1%	6%	15%	68%	3%	11
Diogo Moreira	11	1%	3%	9%	50%	14%	7
Jack Miller	12	1%	2%	7%	45%	8%	14
Joan Mir	13	0%	1%	4%	26%	30%	15
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	1%	3%	27%	13%	8
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	12%	17
Iker Lecuona	16	0%	0%	1%	16%	6%	18
Brad Binder	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	17%	16
Toprak Razgatlioglu	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	22%	13
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	9%	20
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	21
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	19
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	10%	22

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	39%	68%	78%	83%	17%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	26%	61%	76%	83%	15%	2
Fermin Aldeguer	3	17%	54%	72%	83%	15%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	3%	17%	39%	80%	14%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	5	3%	17%	39%	70%	26%	3
Marco Bezzecchi	6	5%	28%	54%	81%	15%	—
Raul Fernandez	7	5%	27%	52%	79%	18%	—
Jorge Martin	8	3%	15%	38%	74%	20%	—
Luca Marini	9	0%	3%	13%	67%	8%	5
Ai Ogura	10	0%	2%	10%	57%	23%	4
Diogo Moreira	11	0%	4%	14%	65%	16%	6
Jack Miller	12	0%	0%	1%	17%	25%	8
Joan Mir	13	0%	0%	1%	22%	38%	—
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	2%	11%	60%	19%	9
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	0%	1%	18%	12%	—
Iker Lecuona	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	33%	7
Brad Binder	17	0%	0%	1%	22%	14%	10
Toprak Razgatlioglu	18	0%	0%	1%	17%	9%	11
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	14
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	13
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	15
Cal Crutchlow	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Raul Fernandez	16% → 27%	+11	3% → 5%
Pedro Acosta	52% → 61%	+10	22% → 26%
Marc Marquez	59% → 68%	+9	31% → 39%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	40% → 17%	−23	12% → 3%
Francesco Bagnaia	26% → 17%	−8	7% → 3%
Luca Marini	9% → 3%	−6	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 26% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	5/21	24%