Round 14 of 22 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2026

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 16 corners · 27 laps · since 1980

11.09 – 13.09.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	30%	58%	71%	80%	18%	2
Marc Marquez	2	25%	58%	75%	88%	9%	1
Fermin Aldeguer	3	16%	52%	71%	89%	8%	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	10%	38%	61%	82%	14%	4
Jorge Martin	5	6%	27%	54%	85%	9%	3
Luca Marini	6	4%	21%	44%	79%	14%	9
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	15%	35%	76%	13%	6
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	12%	31%	75%	11%	12
Alex Marquez	9	2%	7%	17%	68%	11%	5
Raul Fernandez	10	1%	5%	14%	64%	7%	7
Johann Zarco	11	0%	3%	8%	47%	21%	10
Pol Espargaro	12	1%	2%	6%	44%	10%	16
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	1%	4%	33%	12%	21
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	1%	3%	28%	10%	13
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	1%	2%	21%	15%	11
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	12%	15
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	1%	8%	29%	20
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	9%	17
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%	14
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	7%	19
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	15%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	32%	64%	76%	82%	16%	—
Marc Marquez	2	31%	64%	76%	82%	16%	1
Fermin Aldeguer	3	6%	29%	52%	80%	17%	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	12%	44%	67%	83%	14%	7
Jorge Martin	5	11%	39%	62%	78%	20%	5
Luca Marini	6	1%	12%	33%	83%	7%	9
Pedro Acosta	7	3%	21%	43%	77%	17%	3
Franco Morbidelli	8	0%	2%	10%	56%	16%	13
Alex Marquez	9	2%	13%	34%	71%	23%	2
Raul Fernandez	10	1%	8%	24%	71%	19%	6
Johann Zarco	11	0%	2%	10%	55%	18%	—
Pol Espargaro	12	0%	0%	1%	22%	19%	14
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	2%	9%	59%	13%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	14	0%	0%	1%	19%	27%	—
Diogo Moreira	15	0%	0%	1%	25%	11%	—
Enea Bastianini	16	0%	0%	2%	30%	19%	8
Joan Mir	17	0%	0%	0%	7%	39%	—
Jack Miller	18	0%	0%	0%	3%	24%	—
Brad Binder	19	0%	0%	0%	14%	14%	11
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	—
Toprak Razgatlioglu	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	17%	12

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	26% → 39%	+14	7% → 11%
Marc Marquez	52% → 64%	+12	22% → 31%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	38% → 44%	+6	11% → 12%
Dropping
Fermin Aldeguer	44% → 29%	−15	15% → 6%
Luca Marini	26% → 12%	−14	6% → 1%
Franco Morbidelli	13% → 2%	−11	3% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%