Round 15 of 22 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2026

Red Bull Ring - Spielberg Austria

4.348 m · 11 corners · 28 laps · since 1996

18.09 – 20.09.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	33%	66%	80%	90%	9%	1
Marc Marquez	2	21%	55%	74%	88%	9%	2
Pedro Acosta	3	14%	46%	66%	86%	13%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	4	10%	35%	57%	78%	17%	3
Ai Ogura	5	8%	31%	59%	92%	2%	4
Alex Marquez	6	5%	21%	44%	81%	10%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	7	3%	16%	36%	79%	10%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	2%	11%	27%	72%	14%	10
Fabio Quartararo	9	1%	7%	18%	67%	12%	12
Johann Zarco	10	1%	3%	11%	53%	21%	7
Brad Binder	11	1%	3%	8%	49%	16%	9
Fermin Aldeguer	12	1%	2%	6%	44%	7%	8
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	2%	4%	35%	7%	19
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	1%	3%	28%	10%	14
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	14%	13
Diogo Moreira	16	0%	0%	1%	14%	14%	16
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	12%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	12%	15
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	11%	—
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	7%	18
Jack Miller	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	20
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	14%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	31%	61%	73%	79%	20%	2
Marc Marquez	2	22%	57%	74%	82%	16%	5
Pedro Acosta	3	24%	60%	74%	82%	17%	1
Marco Bezzecchi	4	8%	32%	56%	79%	17%	3
Ai Ogura	5	9%	34%	58%	76%	23%	4
Alex Marquez	6	2%	16%	37%	72%	23%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	7	4%	21%	44%	70%	27%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8	1%	5%	19%	71%	14%	9
Fabio Quartararo	9	0%	2%	10%	62%	13%	17
Johann Zarco	10	0%	5%	17%	66%	18%	10
Brad Binder	11	1%	6%	22%	74%	14%	6
Fermin Aldeguer	12	0%	2%	9%	59%	16%	8
Raul Fernandez	13	0%	0%	1%	27%	19%	12
Pol Espargaro	14	0%	0%	1%	18%	19%	16
Luca Marini	15	0%	0%	1%	25%	7%	14
Diogo Moreira	16	0%	0%	1%	23%	16%	15
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	2%	24%	18%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	15%	13
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	18
Alex Rins	20	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	19
Jack Miller	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%	21
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Pedro Acosta	44% → 60%	+16	16% → 24%
Ai Ogura	27% → 34%	+7	7% → 9%
Jorge Martin	56% → 61%	+5	28% → 31%
Dropping
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14% → 5%	−10	3% → 1%
Fabio Quartararo	9% → 2%	−7	2% → 0%
Alex Marquez	22% → 16%	−6	5% → 2%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 11% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%