Round 6 of 22 Aftermath

Catalan Grand Prix 2026

Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya Spain

4.655 m · 25 laps · since 1991

15.05 – 17.05.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pedro Acosta	1	32%	62%	75%	85%	13%	2
Franco Morbidelli	2	23%	57%	74%	89%	8%	7
Alex Marquez	3	14%	47%	68%	85%	11%	1
Raul Fernandez	4	10%	40%	64%	89%	7%	4
Johann Zarco	5	6%	24%	45%	71%	22%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	5%	21%	44%	79%	14%	3
Fabio Quartararo	7	3%	16%	37%	77%	12%	13
Brad Binder	8	2%	11%	28%	69%	16%	—
Jorge Martin	9	2%	7%	20%	71%	8%	—
Joan Mir	10	1%	4%	11%	50%	27%	—
Jack Miller	11	1%	3%	10%	55%	8%	16
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	2%	6%	42%	18%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	1%	5%	37%	11%	6
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	2%	4%	29%	12%	10
Fermin Aldeguer	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	9%	12
Luca Marini	16	0%	1%	2%	17%	13%	11
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	0%	1%	11%	10%	—
Ai Ogura	18	0%	0%	1%	9%	3%	8
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	8%	15
Diogo Moreira	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	16%	14
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	18
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	25%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Pedro Acosta	1	30%	63%	76%	83%	16%	1
Franco Morbidelli	2	3%	19%	42%	77%	16%	6
Alex Marquez	3	16%	46%	65%	76%	22%	—
Raul Fernandez	4	25%	59%	73%	80%	18%	2
Johann Zarco	5	8%	35%	61%	79%	18%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	6	14%	47%	70%	82%	15%	1
Fabio Quartararo	7	0%	2%	10%	56%	13%	5
Brad Binder	8	1%	12%	31%	74%	15%	7
Jorge Martin	9	1%	5%	16%	60%	21%	3
Joan Mir	10	0%	2%	7%	37%	39%	7
Jack Miller	11	0%	0%	1%	21%	25%	15
Marco Bezzecchi	12	0%	3%	11%	57%	15%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	13	0%	4%	15%	57%	26%	3
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	3%	11%	57%	17%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	15	0%	0%	2%	23%	16%	2
Luca Marini	16	0%	0%	1%	25%	8%	6
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	0%	0%	4%	13%	11
Ai Ogura	18	0%	1%	6%	41%	25%	8
Alex Rins	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	14
Diogo Moreira	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	9
Augusto Fernandez	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%	12
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Raul Fernandez	36% → 59%	+23	11% → 25%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	24% → 47%	+23	5% → 14%
Johann Zarco	28% → 35%	+7	8% → 8%
Dropping
Franco Morbidelli	53% → 19%	−34	23% → 3%
Fabio Quartararo	20% → 2%	−18	4% → 0%
Jorge Martin	9% → 5%	−4	2% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 24% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	2/22	9%
2025	7/24	29%
2024	3/23	13%
2023	3/20	15%
2022	8/25	32%
2021	6/21	29%