Round 12 of 22 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2026

Silverstone Circuit United Kingdom

5.900 m · 18 corners · 20 laps · since 1977

07.08 – 09.08.2026

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	32%	63%	79%	89%	9%	1
Raul Fernandez	2	23%	59%	76%	91%	6%	—
Ai Ogura	3	16%	51%	75%	95%	2%	2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	10%	36%	60%	84%	13%	5
Marco Bezzecchi	5	6%	25%	47%	76%	18%	3
Marc Marquez	6	5%	22%	44%	82%	10%	9
Alex Marquez	7	3%	15%	35%	79%	11%	4
Franco Morbidelli	8	2%	10%	27%	72%	11%	8
Pedro Acosta	9	1%	5%	17%	64%	13%	6
Iker Lecuona	10	1%	4%	14%	64%	6%	—
Jack Miller	11	1%	3%	9%	53%	9%	13
Joan Mir	12	0%	2%	5%	33%	29%	7
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	1%	4%	33%	11%	14
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	3%	24%	16%	10
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	13%	12
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	1%	1%	15%	10%	17
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	1%	9%	8%	16
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	0%	6%	16%	11
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	13%	15
Cal Crutchlow	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	15%	—
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	18
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	20
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	16%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	35%	65%	74%	78%	21%	2
Raul Fernandez	2	22%	57%	73%	80%	18%	1
Ai Ogura	3	19%	54%	70%	77%	20%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	4	7%	36%	62%	81%	15%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	5	10%	39%	66%	81%	17%	3
Marc Marquez	6	0%	2%	10%	56%	16%	7
Alex Marquez	7	4%	23%	47%	72%	23%	4
Franco Morbidelli	8	0%	3%	13%	59%	16%	11
Pedro Acosta	9	1%	12%	33%	74%	18%	5
Iker Lecuona	10	0%	2%	9%	47%	32%	—
Jack Miller	11	0%	2%	8%	46%	24%	13
Joan Mir	12	0%	4%	13%	47%	39%	—
Fabio Quartararo	13	0%	0%	3%	35%	13%	12
Diogo Moreira	14	0%	1%	9%	55%	13%	10
Luca Marini	15	0%	1%	5%	46%	7%	9
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	0%	0%	9%	26%	—
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	19%	—
Brad Binder	18	0%	1%	4%	36%	14%	8
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	18%	—
Cal Crutchlow	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	—
Pol Espargaro	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	14
Toprak Razgatlioglu	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	15
Augusto Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Ai Ogura	43% → 54%	+11	14% → 19%
Jorge Martin	56% → 65%	+9	29% → 35%
Marco Bezzecchi	31% → 39%	+8	8% → 10%
Dropping
Marc Marquez	24% → 2%	−22	5% → 0%
Franco Morbidelli	14% → 3%	−11	2% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	39% → 36%	−3	11% → 7%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%