Round 7 of 20 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2022

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

13.05 – 15.05.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:34.613	25
2	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.718	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.182	16
4	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+4.288	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+11.139	11
6	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+15.155	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+16.680	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.459	8
9	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+20.541	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+21.486	6
11	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+22.707	5
12	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+23.408	4
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+26.432	3
14	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+28.710	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+29.433	1
16	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+38.149	0
17	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+59.748	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 26%	Enea Bastianini · 8% · from P5	0.91 / 0.91	1.9 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:32.190	—	+0.319	Soft	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.270	+0.080	+0.221	Soft	18
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.281	+0.091	+0.275	Soft	25
Joan Mir	1:32.293	+0.103	+0.562	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.303	+0.113	+0.209	Soft	25
Jack Miller	1:32.351	+0.161	+0.105	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:32.491	+0.301	+0.344	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:32.670	+0.480	+0.359	Soft	24
Marc Marquez	1:32.695	+0.505	+0.210	Soft	25
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.731	+0.541	+0.193	Soft	18
Brad Binder	1:32.744	+0.554	+0.327	Soft	25
Jorge Martin	1:32.783	+0.593	+0.457	Soft	13
Maverick Viñales	1:32.805	+0.615	+0.292	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:32.822	+0.632	+0.406	Soft	25
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.849	+0.659	+0.553	Soft	24
Luca Marini	1:32.857	+0.667	+0.308	Soft	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.971	+0.781	+0.320	Soft	25
Alex Marquez	1:33.009	+0.819	+0.356	Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.068	+0.878	+0.512	Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.348	+1.158	+0.226	Soft	24
Raul Fernandez	1:33.733	+1.543	+0.667	Soft	4
Darryn Binder	1:34.311	+2.121	+0.272	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

7/27

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

2.718 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P18 to P8.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Fabio Quartararo (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:03:47	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:57	Remy Gardner	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:59	Alex Rins	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:10:30	Raul Fernandez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:20	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to advantage gained in shortcut at T10
Race	14:22:02	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:26:30	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:32:43	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:38:01	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #5

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	21	14	+7
Brad Binder	18	12	+6
Alex Rins	7	3	+4
Maverick Viñales	14	24	−10
Fabio Quartararo	4	8	−4
Marco Bezzecchi	13	17	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	18→8	+5.8
Enea Bastianini	5→1	+4.4
Johann Zarco	9→5	+3.0
Andrea Dovizioso	20→16	−1.0
Marco Bezzecchi	13→12	−1.5
Pol Espargaro	11→11	−1.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	100%	+0.66%	−0.003	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.3 °C

Air

max 27.6 °C

51%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

17 km/h

Wind

gusts 43 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 13.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pol Espargaro	01:31.771	—	21	317.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.270	+0.97%	11	Medium
2	Alex Rins	01:31.880	+0.109	21	316.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.076	+0.76%	6	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.893	+0.122	22	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.196	+0.89%	14	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.912	+0.141	23	312.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.373	—	15	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.933	+0.162	21	316.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.590	+1.32%	7	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:31.942	+0.171	21	317.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.580	+1.31%	10	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:31.961	+0.190	22	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.881	+0.55%	15	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:32.078	+0.307	20	320.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.849	+0.52%	5	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	01:32.112	+0.341	23	314.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.014	+0.69%	15	Medium
10	Luca Marini	01:32.128	+0.357	19	316.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.648	+2.46%	5	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.165	+0.394	21	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.187	+1.96%	10	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:32.255	+0.484	18	320.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.571	+1.30%	5	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:32.266	+0.495	21	317.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Jorge Martin	01:32.491	+0.720	21	314.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.676	+1.41%	5	Medium
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.674	+0.903	21	318.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.355	+1.06%	5	Medium
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.736	+0.965	21	315.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.316	+2.10%	9	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.755	+0.984	22	313.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.573	+1.30%	13	Medium
18	Brad Binder	01:32.756	+0.985	23	313.5	Soft / Medium	1:33.799	+1.54%	17	Medium
19	Alex Marquez	01:32.762	+0.991	21	319.6	Soft / Medium	1:34.276	+2.06%	6	Medium
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.937	+1.166	21	310.6	Soft / Medium	1:34.137	+1.91%	9	Medium
21	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.021	+1.250	13	319.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Remy Gardner	01:33.302	+1.531	19	314.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.249	+2.03%	6	Medium
23	Raul Fernandez	01:34.151	+2.380	15	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:35.369	+3.24%	8	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.624	+2.853	19	317.5	Soft / Medium	1:36.894	+4.89%	5	Medium

FP2 · 13.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:31.148	—	16	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.350	+0.202	19	317.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.665	+0.43%	7	Medium
3	Alex Rins	01:31.445	+0.297	21	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.266	—	11	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:31.508	+0.360	17	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.635	+0.487	17	318.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.579	+0.34%	5	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.640	+0.492	21	313.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.273	+0.01%	10	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:31.657	+0.509	18	317.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.123	+0.93%	5	Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:31.666	+0.518	16	317.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jorge Martin	01:31.912	+0.764	20	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.665	+0.43%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:31.914	+0.766	17	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.669	+0.44%	6	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.025	+0.877	19	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.646	+1.50%	7	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:32.051	+0.903	19	318.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Pol Espargaro	01:32.076	+0.928	21	319.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.604	+2.53%	6	Medium
14	Marc Marquez	01:32.153	+1.005	20	315.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.410	+1.24%	10	Medium
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.275	+1.127	17	317.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.586	+0.35%	6	Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.314	+1.166	17	316.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Luca Marini	01:32.416	+1.268	18	314.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.125	+0.93%	11	Medium
18	Alex Marquez	01:32.505	+1.357	18	316.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.641	+1.49%	11	Medium
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.536	+1.388	20	315.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.711	+0.48%	5	Medium
20	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.695	+1.547	18	317.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:32.737	+1.589	17	315.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.409	+1.24%	4	Medium
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.397	+2.249	18	320.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.446	+2.36%	4	Medium
23	Raul Fernandez	01:33.557	+2.409	19	312.6	Medium / Soft	1:35.398	+3.40%	6	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.561	+2.413	16	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.625	+2.56%	6	Medium

FP3 · 14.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:30.537	—	21	319.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.568	+0.031	22	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.744	+0.89%	4	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.682	+0.145	20	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.926	—	10	Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.785	+0.248	20	314.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:30.837	+0.300	21	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.218	+1.41%	6	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.986	+0.449	20	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.745	+0.89%	7	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.062	+0.525	22	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.786	+0.94%	11	Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:31.087	+0.550	20	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.878	+1.04%	5	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:31.102	+0.565	17	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.727	+0.87%	5	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	01:31.151	+0.614	22	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.034	+0.12%	5	Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:31.169	+0.632	19	319.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.817	+2.06%	5	Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:31.228	+0.691	21	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Luca Marini	01:31.228	+0.691	22	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.009	+1.18%	10	Soft
14	Brad Binder	01:31.353	+0.816	20	313.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.403	+0.866	21	321.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.429	+0.55%	5	Soft
16	Enea Bastianini	01:31.539	+1.002	18	319.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.593	+1.056	18	319.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.734	+1.97%	5	Soft
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.699	+1.162	20	313.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.716	+1.179	21	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.005	+1.17%	8	Soft
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.847	+1.310	23	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.189	+1.37%	9	Soft
21	Remy Gardner	01:31.887	+1.350	18	316.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.400	+1.60%	5	Soft
22	Alex Marquez	01:32.002	+1.465	22	317.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	01:33.083	+2.546	15	313.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.241	+2.704	19	315.5	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 14.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.444	—	15	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.698	+0.07%	5	Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:31.454	+0.010	16	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.637	—	5	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.708	+0.264	13	315.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.775	+0.331	13	315.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.379	+0.81%	5	Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.809	+0.365	16	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.380	+0.81%	4	Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:31.832	+0.388	13	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.372	+0.80%	6	Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:31.881	+0.437	15	319.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.453	+0.89%	5	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.899	+0.455	14	321.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.903	+0.459	13	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.918	+0.474	16	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:32.640	+1.10%	7	Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:31.964	+0.520	17	316.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.241	+0.66%	13	Soft
12	Pol Espargaro	01:31.991	+0.547	14	315.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.275	+0.70%	4	Soft
13	Marc Marquez	01:32.026	+0.582	12	316.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.434	+0.87%	4	Soft
14	Joan Mir	01:32.061	+0.617	13	315.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.700	+1.16%	6	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:32.071	+0.627	15	316.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Brad Binder	01:32.073	+0.629	15	313.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.223	+0.779	13	308.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.487	+0.93%	7	Soft
18	Luca Marini	01:32.241	+0.797	14	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.954	+1.44%	10	Soft
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.452	+1.008	14	317.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:32.708	+1.264	16	315.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.898	+1.38%	6	Soft
21	Remy Gardner	01:32.719	+1.275	17	313.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.946	+1.43%	10	Soft
22	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.742	+1.298	16	308.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.058	+1.55%	12	Soft
23	Raul Fernandez	01:33.579	+2.135	12	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.623	+2.179	16	314.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.948	+2.52%	6	Soft

Q1 · 14.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:30.804	—	8	316.5	Medium / Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:30.933	+0.129	9	313.5	Soft / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.940	+0.136	8	315.5	Medium / Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:31.271	+0.467	8	314.5	Soft / Soft
5	Luca Marini	01:31.363	+0.559	9	314.5	Soft / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.487	+0.683	8	314.5	Medium / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.547	+0.743	8	310.6	Medium / Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:31.610	+0.806	8	306.8	Medium / Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.617	+0.813	9	313.5	Medium / Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.618	+0.814	9	309.6	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:31.763	+0.959	9	316.5	Medium / Soft
12	Remy Gardner	01:31.820	+1.016	8	311.6	Medium / Soft
13	Darryn Binder	01:32.596	+1.792	7	312.6	Soft / Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:32.767	+1.963	8	310.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 14.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.450	—	9	317.5	— / —
2	Jack Miller	01:30.519	+0.069	9	317.5	— / —
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.609	+0.159	8	315.5	Medium / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.688	+0.238	8	314.5	Soft / Soft
5	Enea Bastianini	01:30.711	+0.261	9	318.5	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:30.863	+0.413	8	317.5	Soft / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:30.943	+0.493	7	315.5	— / —
8	Alex Rins	01:30.977	+0.527	8	314.5	— / —
9	Jorge Martin	01:31.068	+0.618	7	315.5	— / —
10	Marc Marquez	01:31.148	+0.698	7	313.5	Soft / Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	01:31.526	+1.076	8	313.5	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.595	+1.145	9	313.5	Medium / Soft

Warm Up · 15.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.650	—	12	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.228	+0.33%	6	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.805	+0.155	12	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.986	+0.07%	9	Soft
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.822	+0.172	12	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:31.922	—	5	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:31.903	+0.253	11	315.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.142	+0.24%	6	Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:31.905	+0.255	13	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.163	+0.26%	10	Soft
6	Jack Miller	01:31.920	+0.270	12	320.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.295	+0.41%	7	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:31.951	+0.301	12	315.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.268	+0.38%	8	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:31.955	+0.305	10	322.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:31.986	+0.336	12	314.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:31.988	+0.338	13	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.414	+0.54%	10	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.993	+0.343	13	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.378	+0.50%	7	Soft
12	Marc Marquez	01:32.118	+0.468	10	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.832	+0.99%	5	Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.176	+0.526	12	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.321	+0.43%	5	Soft
14	Luca Marini	01:32.197	+0.547	13	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:32.758	+0.91%	10	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.262	+0.612	12	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:32.333	+0.683	12	319.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.886	+2.14%	8	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.350	+0.700	12	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:32.997	+1.17%	8	Soft
18	Joan Mir	01:32.374	+0.724	11	316.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.716	+0.86%	5	Medium
19	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.558	+0.908	12	316.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Brad Binder	01:32.664	+1.014	12	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.661	+1.89%	6	Soft
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.672	+1.022	13	309.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.175	+1.36%	9	Soft
22	Remy Gardner	01:32.698	+1.048	12	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.128	+1.31%	7	Soft
23	Darryn Binder	01:33.030	+1.380	13	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.064	+2.33%	8	Soft
24	Raul Fernandez	01:33.260	+1.610	12	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.905	+2.16%	7	Soft

Race · 15.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	41:34.613	25	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.190	—	24	Soft
2	Jack Miller	+2.718	20	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.351	+0.18%	25	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	+4.182	16	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.303	+0.12%	25	Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	+4.288	13	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.281	+0.10%	25	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	+11.139	11	27	Soft / Soft	1:32.491	+0.33%	25	Soft
6	Marc Marquez	+15.155	10	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.695	+0.55%	25	Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.680	9	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.670	+0.52%	24	Soft
8	Brad Binder	+18.459	8	27	Hard / Soft	1:32.744	+0.60%	25	Soft
9	Luca Marini	+20.541	7	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.857	+0.72%	25	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	+21.486	6	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.805	+0.67%	25	Soft
11	Pol Espargaro	+22.707	5	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.822	+0.69%	25	Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	+23.408	4	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.849	+0.72%	24	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+26.432	3	27	Medium / Soft	1:32.971	+0.85%	25	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+28.710	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.009	+0.89%	23	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+29.433	1	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.068	+0.95%	24	Soft
16	Andrea Dovizioso	+38.149	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.348	+1.26%	24	Soft
17	Darryn Binder	+59.748	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.311	+2.30%	24	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	5	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	20	Medium / Soft	1:32.270	+0.09%	18	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.293	+0.11%	11	Soft
Retired	Jorge Martin		0	16	Medium / Soft	1:32.783	+0.64%	13	Soft
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	24	Hard / Soft	1:32.731	+0.59%	18	Soft
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:33.733	+1.67%	4	Soft
Retired	Remy Gardner		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.920*	—	+0.209	Medium	3
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.041*	+0.121	+0.275	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:32.177	+0.257	+0.344	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:32.316*	+0.396	+0.292	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:32.686*	+0.766	+0.356	Medium	3
Andrea Dovizioso	1:32.697*	+0.777	+0.226	Medium	4
Luca Marini	1:32.768	+0.848	+0.308	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:32.854	+0.934	+0.512	Medium	6
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.570*	+1.650	+0.193	Medium	3
Raul Fernandez	1:34.579*	+2.659	+0.667	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Jorge Martin	56%	1 ✓
2	Maverick Viñales	42%	4
3	Joan Mir	32%	2 ✓
4	Luca Marini	21%	5
5	Brad Binder	18%	8
6	Marco Bezzecchi	9%	3
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	8%	6
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	7
9	Franco Morbidelli	2%	9
10	Andrea Dovizioso	3%	10
11	Remy Gardner	3%	12
12	Alex Marquez	2%	11
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	14
14	Darryn Binder	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	35%	65%	89%	2
2	Johann Zarco	26%	53%	83%	6
3	Francesco Bagnaia	15%	49%	79%	1
4	Fabio Quartararo	4%	32%	68%	4
5	Marc Marquez	4%	27%	53%	10
6	Aleix Espargaro	6%	21%	54%	3
7	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	12%	40%	12
8	Alex Rins	2%	12%	37%	8
9	Pol Espargaro	2%	9%	28%	11
10	Enea Bastianini	2%	8%	24%	5
11	Jorge Martin	2%	11%	29%	9
12	Joan Mir	1%	4%	18%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Johann Zarco	6	9	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #5

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	26%	52%	64%	72%	27%	—
Jack Miller	2	20%	47%	60%	71%	26%	2
Aleix Espargaro	3	14%	40%	56%	72%	25%	3
Fabio Quartararo	4	14%	41%	62%	83%	13%	4
Enea Bastianini	5	8%	31%	53%	77%	17%	1
Joan Mir	6	6%	24%	46%	76%	17%	—
Alex Rins	7	5%	19%	37%	71%	20%	—
Jorge Martin	8	2%	12%	26%	58%	31%	—
Johann Zarco	9	2%	9%	24%	65%	18%	5
Marc Marquez	10	2%	9%	21%	63%	15%	6
Pol Espargaro	11	1%	6%	15%	55%	19%	11
Takaaki Nakagami	12	1%	4%	12%	51%	13%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	2%	7%	37%	26%	12
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	6%	38%	11%	10
Luca Marini	15	0%	2%	4%	33%	4%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	1%	3%	20%	26%	13
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	16%	19%	—
Brad Binder	18	0%	0%	1%	12%	16%	8
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	16%	15
Andrea Dovizioso	20	0%	0%	1%	8%	12%	16
Alex Marquez	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	14
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	10%	—
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	18%	17
Raul Fernandez	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.46%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.52%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%	Pol Espargaro +0.45%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Augusto Fernandez +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura	Jorge Martin +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Raul Fernandez +0.22%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%	Enea Bastianini +0.33%	Ai Ogura +0.33%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fermin Aldeguer +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Johann Zarco +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.37%	Pedro Acosta +0.46%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%
S2	Johann Zarco	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Alex Rins +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S3	Jack Miller +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Joan Mir +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Jack Miller +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jack Miller +0.11%	Pol Espargaro +0.28%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Joan Mir +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.10%	Pol Espargaro +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.27%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.48%	Andrea Iannone +0.55%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Andrea Iannone +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.49%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Andrea Iannone +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Valentino Rossi +0.11%	Andrea Iannone +0.16%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	89	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	82	−7
3	Alex Rins	69	−20
4	Enea Bastianini	69	−20
5	Joan Mir	56	−33
6	Francesco Bagnaia	56	−33

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

160

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

18/27

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

3.970 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P19 to P6.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Valentino Rossi (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:42.737	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	22
Iker Lecuona	1:43.133	+0.396	+0.094	Wet-Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:43.184	+0.447	+0.221	Wet-Medium	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:43.878	+1.141	+0.574	Wet-Medium	23
Tito Rabat	1:44.162	+1.425	+0.229	Wet-Medium	20
Enea Bastianini	1:44.238	+1.501	+0.319	Wet-Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:44.398	+1.661	+0.356	Wet-Soft	23
Jack Miller	1:44.510	+1.773	+0.105	Wet-Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:44.759	+2.022	+0.275	Wet-Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:44.778	+2.041	+0.210	Wet-Medium	12

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	55%	+12.70%	+0.096	1	1	9.0
Wet-Medium	41%	+11.06%	+0.063	0	2	8.0
Soft	5%	0.00%	—	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.