Round 8 of 20 Aftermath

Italian Grand Prix 2022

Autodromo Internazionale del Mugello Italy

5.245 m · 23 laps · since 1976

27.05 – 29.05.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:18.923	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.635	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.983	16
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+2.590	13
5	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.067	11
6	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+3.875	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.067	9
8	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+10.944	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.256	7
10	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+11.800	6
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.916	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+12.917	4
13	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+17.240	3
14	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+17.568	2
15	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+17.687	1
16	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+20.265	0
17	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+20.296	0
18	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	+21.305	0
19	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+30.548	0
20	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+31.011	0
21	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+42.723	0
22	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Di Giannantonio · 26%	Francesco Bagnaia · 7% · from P5	0.77 / 0.77	3.1 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:47.175	—	+0.319	Soft	11
Alex Rins	1:47.320	+0.145	+0.217	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:47.455	+0.280	+0.221	Medium	20
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.462	+0.287	+0.275	Medium	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.544	+0.369	+0.209	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.558	+0.383	+0.553	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:47.592	+0.417	+0.344	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:47.613	+0.438	+0.327	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:47.688	+0.513	+0.308	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:47.795	+0.620	+0.292	Soft	21
Joan Mir	1:47.863	+0.688	+0.562	Medium	5
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.888	+0.713	+0.359	Soft	21
Jack Miller	1:48.046	+0.871	+0.105	Medium	21
Marc Marquez	1:48.072	+0.897	+0.210	Medium	20
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.095	+0.920	+0.193	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:48.119	+0.944	+0.320	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:48.121	+0.946	+0.457	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.146	+0.971	+0.512	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:48.156	+0.981	+0.356	Soft	20
Darryn Binder	1:48.168	+0.993	+0.272	Medium	21
Michele Pirro	1:48.201	+1.026	+0.267	Medium	21
Remy Gardner	1:48.762	+1.587	+1.660	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:48.766	+1.591	+0.226	Medium	20
Raul Fernandez	1:49.070	+1.895	+0.667	Medium	21
Lorenzo Savadori	1:49.182	+2.007	+0.781	Medium	17

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

15/23

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.635 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P24 to P12.

Longest battle: Darryn Binder vs Franco Morbidelli (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:14	Darryn Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:09:24	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:14:02	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:15:04	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:58	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	16	7	+9
Alex Rins	21	15	+6
Andrea Dovizioso	26	21	+5
Jack Miller	12	22	−10
Pol Espargaro	9	14	−5
Michele Pirro	13	18	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Maverick Viñales	24→12	+5.6
Brad Binder	16→7	+5.5
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Lorenzo Savadori	22→22	−5.7
Michele Pirro	13→18	−7.5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1→11	−8.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	81%	+0.84%	+0.035	1	3	11.5
Soft	19%	+0.67%	+0.000	0	0	11.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

21.8 °C

Air

max 22.4 °C

59%

Humidity

0.4 mm

Rain

17 km/h

Wind

gusts 45 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 27.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.662	—	19	347.2	missing / missing	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.070	+0.408	18	352.9	missing / missing	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.070	+0.408	16	349.5	missing / missing	1:47.660	—	10	missing
4	Alex Rins	01:47.071	+0.409	20	351.7	missing / missing	—			—
5	Enea Bastianini	01:47.186	+0.524	17	355.2	missing / missing	1:48.010	+0.33%	11	missing
6	Maverick Viñales	01:47.191	+0.529	18	351.7	missing / missing	—			—
7	Jack Miller	01:47.315	+0.653	20	350.6	missing / missing	1:48.005	+0.32%	12	missing
8	Pol Espargaro	01:47.367	+0.705	19	349.5	missing / missing	1:48.211	+0.51%	4	missing
9	Johann Zarco	01:47.367	+0.705	21	354.0	missing / missing	1:47.774	+0.11%	6	missing
10	Luca Marini	01:47.383	+0.721	19	349.5	missing / missing	1:47.721	+0.06%	5	missing
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.393	+0.731	21	348.3	missing / missing	1:47.690	+0.03%	14	missing
12	Michele Pirro	01:47.432	+0.770	16	348.3	missing / missing	—			—
13	Alex Marquez	01:47.562	+0.900	20	356.4	missing / missing	1:48.066	+0.38%	4	missing
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.584	+0.922	19	350.6	missing / missing	1:47.710	+0.05%	5	missing
15	Joan Mir	01:47.658	+0.996	20	348.3	missing / missing	1:48.193	+0.50%	5	missing
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.727	+1.065	20	345.0	missing / missing	1:48.468	+0.75%	4	missing
17	Brad Binder	01:47.746	+1.084	20	351.7	missing / missing	1:49.199	+1.43%	5	missing
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.820	+1.158	20	349.5	missing / missing	1:49.182	+1.41%	5	missing
19	Marc Marquez	01:47.875	+1.213	17	345.0	missing / missing	—			—
20	Jorge Martin	01:47.903	+1.241	17	351.7	missing / missing	1:50.130	+2.29%	6	missing
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.078	+1.416	18	348.3	missing / missing	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.253	+1.591	18	351.7	missing / missing	—			—
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.335	+1.673	17	348.3	missing / missing	1:49.436	+1.65%	6	missing
24	Darryn Binder	01:48.910	+2.248	18	354.0	missing / missing	—			—
25	Raul Fernandez	01:48.911	+2.249	18	346.1	missing / missing	—			—
26	Remy Gardner	01:48.960	+2.298	16	345.0	missing / missing	1:50.011	+2.18%	6	missing

FP2 · 27.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.891	—	19	352.9	— / —	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.940	+0.049	20	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:46.313	+0.422	19	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:47.959	—	8	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:46.349	+0.458	17	352.9	— / —	—			—
5	Luca Marini	01:46.362	+0.471	17	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:46.395	+0.504	17	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Brad Binder	01:46.439	+0.548	19	354.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.473	+0.582	19	349.5	— / —	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.519	+0.628	19	346.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Pol Espargaro	01:46.618	+0.727	16	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Jorge Martin	01:46.629	+0.738	18	351.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Marc Marquez	01:46.658	+0.767	19	351.7	— / —	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:46.663	+0.772	17	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.818	+0.927	20	349.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.852	+0.961	17	347.2	— / —	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.915	+1.024	19	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Maverick Viñales	01:47.053	+1.162	17	347.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:47.151	+1.260	18	349.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Joan Mir	01:47.269	+1.378	17	354.0	— / —	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.468	+1.577	20	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.583	+1.692	20	347.2	Medium / Soft	1:50.323	+2.19%	5	Medium
22	Remy Gardner	01:47.684	+1.793	18	345.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
23	Darryn Binder	01:47.687	+1.796	16	347.2	— / —	—			—
24	Michele Pirro	01:47.726	+1.835	17	349.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
25	Raul Fernandez	01:47.998	+2.107	18	347.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
26	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.088	+2.197	15	347.2	Hard / Medium	—			—

FP3 · 28.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.393	—	16	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:45.669	+0.276	17	349.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Luca Marini	01:45.762	+0.369	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:45.767	+0.374	18	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.853	+0.460	17	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:45.860	+0.467	15	355.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:45.879	+0.486	15	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:45.880	+0.487	17	356.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.999	+0.606	18	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.032	+0.639	20	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:46.060	+0.667	17	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:46.064	+0.671	20	357.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.116	+0.723	19	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:47.502	+0.25%	5	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.154	+0.761	20	356.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Jack Miller	01:46.169	+0.776	11	350.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Joan Mir	01:46.337	+0.944	20	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Alex Marquez	01:46.363	+0.970	19	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.483	+1.090	21	349.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Brad Binder	01:46.500	+1.107	18	352.9	Hard / Soft	1:47.231	—	6	Medium
20	Michele Pirro	01:46.557	+1.164	16	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Marc Marquez	01:46.577	+1.184	15	352.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Raul Fernandez	01:46.739	+1.346	16	347.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:46.939	+1.546	17	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:46.963	+1.570	18	354.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.023	+1.630	19	348.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
26	Lorenzo Savadori	01:47.046	+1.653	14	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 28.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.614	—	5	350.6	Hard / Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.047	+0.433	8	345.0	Medium / Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:47.075	+0.461	6	343.9	Hard / Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.149	+0.535	9	343.9	Hard / Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:47.149	+0.535	6	346.1	Hard / Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:47.227	+0.613	8	348.3	Hard / Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:47.243	+0.629	7	346.1	Hard / Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	01:47.347	+0.733	7	340.6	Medium / Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:47.359	+0.745	6	345.0	Hard / Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:47.405	+0.791	5	348.3	Hard / Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:47.439	+0.825	5	345.0	Hard / Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:47.460	+0.846	4	340.6	Hard / Soft
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.499	+0.885	6	345.0	Medium / Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:47.574	+0.960	8	342.8	Medium / Medium
15	Joan Mir	01:47.623	+1.009	8	350.6	Hard / Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:47.715	+1.101	5	348.3	Hard / Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	01:47.835	+1.221	6	343.9	Hard / Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:47.929	+1.315	4	338.5	Hard / Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.978	+1.364	7	347.2	Medium / Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:48.183	+1.569	4	343.9	Hard / Medium
21	Michele Pirro	01:48.254	+1.640	6	345.0	Medium / Medium
22	Enea Bastianini	01:48.265	+1.651	3	348.3	Hard / Medium
23	Darryn Binder	01:48.287	+1.673	6	346.1	Hard / Medium
24	Remy Gardner	01:48.967	+2.353	8	336.4	Hard / Soft
25	Andrea Dovizioso	01:49.611	+2.997	7	337.5	Medium / Medium
—	Fabio Quartararo	01:55.653	+9.039	4	340.6	Hard / Medium

Q1 · 28.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.219	—	8	346.1	Medium / Soft
2	Marc Marquez	01:47.294	+0.075	8	342.8	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:47.621	+0.402	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
4	Michele Pirro	01:48.209	+0.990	8	343.9	Soft / Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.231	+1.012	8	341.7	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:48.255	+1.036	7	338.5	Medium / Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:48.732	+1.513	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:48.846	+1.627	8	341.7	Medium / Soft
9	Remy Gardner	01:48.907	+1.688	7	337.5	Medium / Soft
10	Darryn Binder	01:49.471	+2.252	8	339.6	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:50.266	+3.047	8	341.7	Soft / Soft
12	Lorenzo Savadori	01:50.270	+3.051	6	337.5	Medium / Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:55.369	+8.150	7	329.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
14	Maverick Viñales	01:56.479	+9.260	6	331.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
15	Raul Fernandez	01:57.106	+9.887	7	326.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:57.671	+10.452	6	328.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium

Q2 · 28.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.156	—	9	351.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:46.244	+0.088	9	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:47.840	—	6	Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:46.327	+0.171	9	352.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.801	+0.89%	4	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:46.383	+0.227	8	351.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.471	+0.315	9	357.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.494	+1.53%	6	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.506	+0.350	9	351.7	Medium / Soft	1:50.242	+2.23%	6	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.507	+0.351	9	352.9	missing / Soft	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.561	+0.405	9	349.5	Soft / Soft	1:49.316	+1.37%	6	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:46.667	+0.511	9	352.9	Medium / Soft	1:49.892	+1.90%	6	Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:46.679	+0.523	9	360.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.712	+1.74%	6	Soft
11	Jorge Martin	01:47.223	+1.067	6	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Marc Marquez	01:47.468	+1.312	4	343.9	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 29.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.976	—	11	351.7	Medium / Medium	1:48.096	+0.25%	9	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:47.116	+0.140	11	350.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.111	+0.26%	9	Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.233	+0.257	10	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:47.826	—	5	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:47.246	+0.270	11	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:48.451	+0.58%	9	Soft
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.414	+0.438	11	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:49.525	+1.58%	9	Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.460	+0.484	9	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:47.482	+0.506	9	343.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:47.502	+0.526	11	349.5	Medium / Medium	1:48.505	+0.63%	7	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:47.560	+0.584	11	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:48.628	+0.74%	8	Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:47.629	+0.653	11	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.396	+0.53%	7	Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:47.686	+0.710	7	343.9	Soft / Soft	1:48.389	+0.52%	5	Soft
12	Marc Marquez	01:47.719	+0.743	10	347.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Brad Binder	01:47.731	+0.755	11	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:49.028	+1.12%	9	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:47.749	+0.773	11	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:48.531	+0.65%	9	Soft
15	Pol Espargaro	01:47.761	+0.785	8	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:49.286	+1.35%	6	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:47.773	+0.797	11	348.3	Medium / Soft	1:48.744	+0.85%	9	Soft
17	Michele Pirro	01:47.787	+0.811	11	350.6	Soft / Soft	1:49.842	+1.87%	5	Soft
18	Jorge Martin	01:47.864	+0.888	9	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:48.805	+0.91%	7	Medium
19	Alex Marquez	01:47.903	+0.927	7	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.274	+1.34%	5	Soft
20	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.920	+0.944	7	336.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:48.124	+1.148	11	348.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.106	+1.19%	8	Soft
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.357	+1.381	11	338.5	Medium / Medium	1:48.918	+1.01%	8	Medium
23	Darryn Binder	01:48.367	+1.391	11	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:50.534	+2.51%	9	Soft
24	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.390	+1.414	11	340.6	Soft / Soft	1:48.785	+0.89%	6	Soft
25	Raul Fernandez	01:48.997	+2.021	10	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.654	+1.70%	7	Soft
26	Lorenzo Savadori	01:49.633	+2.657	10	345.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Race · 29.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:18.923	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.455	+0.26%	20	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.635	20	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.462	+0.27%	20	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+1.983	16	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.544	+0.34%	20	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	+2.590	13	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.592	+0.39%	21	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	+3.067	11	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.558	+0.36%	21	Medium
6	Luca Marini	+3.875	10	23	Medium / Medium	1:47.688	+0.48%	21	Medium
7	Brad Binder	+4.067	9	23	Hard / Medium	1:47.613	+0.41%	21	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	+10.944	8	23	Medium / Soft	1:47.888	+0.67%	21	Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	+11.256	7	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.095	+0.86%	21	Medium
10	Marc Marquez	+11.800	6	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.072	+0.84%	20	Medium
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+12.916	5	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.119	+0.88%	21	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	+12.917	4	23	Hard / Soft	1:47.795	+0.58%	21	Soft
13	Jorge Martin	+17.240	3	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.121	+0.88%	21	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	+17.568	2	23	Medium / Soft	1:48.156	+0.92%	20	Soft
15	Jack Miller	+17.687	1	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.046	+0.81%	21	Medium
16	Darryn Binder	+20.265	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.168	+0.93%	21	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	+20.296	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:48.146	+0.91%	21	Medium
18	Michele Pirro	+21.305	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.201	+0.96%	21	Medium
19	Remy Gardner	+30.548	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.762	+1.48%	21	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	+31.011	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.766	+1.48%	20	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	+42.723	0	23	Hard / Medium	1:49.070	+1.77%	21	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	+0.000	0	22	Hard / Medium	1:49.182	+1.87%	17	Medium
Retired	Alex Rins		0	7	Medium / Medium	1:47.320	+0.14%	5	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	13	Medium / Soft	1:47.175	—	11	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	7	Medium / Medium	1:47.863	+0.64%	5	Medium
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:46.854*	—	+0.221	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:47.166*	+0.312	+0.292	Medium	4
Enea Bastianini	1:47.342*	+0.488	+0.319	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.408*	+0.554	+0.275	Medium	3
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:47.416	+0.562	+0.320	Medium	8
Alex Rins	1:47.456	+0.602	+0.217	Medium	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:47.637*	+0.783	+0.553	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:47.721*	+0.867	+0.344	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:47.788*	+0.934	+0.457	Medium	4
Joan Mir	1:47.795*	+0.941	+0.562	Medium	3
Andrea Dovizioso	1:47.812*	+0.958	+0.226	Medium	3
Michele Pirro	1:48.159*	+1.305	+0.267	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:48.225	+1.371	+0.512	Medium	10

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	56%	14
2	Alex Rins	42%	11
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	32%	1 ✓
4	Miguel Oliveira	21%	5
5	Jack Miller	18%	3
6	Joan Mir	9%	7
7	Alex Marquez	8%	8
8	Franco Morbidelli	4%	13
9	Brad Binder	2%	6
10	Michele Pirro	3%	4
11	Marc Marquez	3%	2 ✓
12	Raul Fernandez	2%	15
13	Remy Gardner	1%	9
14	Darryn Binder	0%	10
15	Andrea Dovizioso	0%	16
16	Lorenzo Savadori	—	12

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	65%	89%	5
2	Aleix Espargaro	26%	53%	83%	7
3	Luca Marini	15%	49%	79%	3
4	Johann Zarco	4%	32%	68%	4
5	Marco Bezzecchi	4%	27%	53%	2
6	Enea Bastianini	6%	21%	55%	10
7	Jorge Martin	1%	12%	40%	11
8	Pol Espargaro	2%	12%	37%	9
9	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	9%	28%	8
10	Fabio Quartararo	2%	8%	24%	6
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	2%	11%	29%	1
12	Marc Marquez	1%	4%	18%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Jorge Martin	11	14	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #89 & long lap penalty for rider #40

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1	26%	53%	66%	74%	24%	11
Marco Bezzecchi	2	19%	47%	61%	73%	24%	5
Luca Marini	3	18%	52%	73%	93%	4%	6
Johann Zarco	4	12%	36%	57%	78%	18%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	5	7%	26%	44%	67%	29%	1
Fabio Quartararo	6	6%	25%	48%	80%	13%	2
Aleix Espargaro	7	4%	17%	34%	65%	25%	3
Takaaki Nakagami	8	3%	15%	33%	73%	13%	8
Pol Espargaro	9	2%	9%	22%	63%	19%	—
Enea Bastianini	10	1%	6%	18%	62%	17%	—
Marc Marquez	11	1%	6%	15%	57%	15%	10
Jack Miller	12	1%	3%	8%	44%	26%	15
Michele Pirro	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	20%	18
Jorge Martin	14	0%	1%	4%	27%	34%	13
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	3%	27%	20%	9
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	3%	22%	16%	7
Joan Mir	17	0%	1%	2%	15%	18%	—
Alex Marquez	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	25%	14
Remy Gardner	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	17%	19
Darryn Binder	20	0%	0%	0%	7%	17%	16
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	31%	22
Franco Morbidelli	23	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	17
Maverick Viñales	24	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	12
Raul Fernandez	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	21
Andrea Dovizioso	26	0%	0%	0%	1%	12%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,245 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%	Jorge Martin +0.45%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Pedro Acosta +0.47%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.55%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.46%	Marc Marquez +0.52%
S2	Raul Fernandez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.38%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.48%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.50%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.17%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.22%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.41%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.42%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Pedro Acosta +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.45%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Pedro Acosta +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Luca Marini +0.15%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Alex Rins +0.16%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.41%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.31%
S3	Luca Marini +0.10%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.29%	Alex Rins +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.39%	Miguel Oliveira +0.58%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.33%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.08%	Jack Miller +0.24%	Danilo Petrucci +0.32%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.63%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Alex Rins +0.21%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.34%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.28%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.07%	Valentino Rossi +0.27%	Cal Crutchlow +0.43%
S4	Jorge Lorenzo +0.21%	Andrea Iannone +0.31%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

76/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

46%

Front row on the podium

0.80

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 21% and 94%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	102	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	98	−4
3	Enea Bastianini	94	−8
4	Alex Rins	69	−33
5	Johann Zarco	62	−40
6	Jack Miller	62	−40

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

21/23

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

2.592 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Danilo Petrucci, from P18 to P9.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Joan Mir (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:47.334	—	+0.275	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:47.480	+0.146	+0.217	Medium	15
Joan Mir	1:47.500	+0.166	+0.562	Medium	20
Jack Miller	1:47.511	+0.177	+0.105	missing	21
Brad Binder	1:47.549	+0.215	+0.327	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:47.604	+0.270	+0.193	missing	20
Aleix Espargaro	1:47.625	+0.291	+0.209	Medium	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:47.647	+0.313	+0.359	Soft	17
Johann Zarco	1:47.654	+0.320	+0.344	Medium	20
Maverick Viñales	1:47.962	+0.628	+0.292	Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Danilo PetrucciDucati
2018Jorge LorenzoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/22	14%
2025	4/22	18%
2024	3/24	13%
2023	3/22	14%
2022	4/26	15%
2021	5/22	23%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	84%	+0.74%	+0.035	1	2	9.2
Soft	16%	+1.11%	+0.022	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.