Round 6 of 20 Aftermath

Spanish Grand Prix 2022

4.428 m · 25 laps · since 1984

29.04 – 01.05.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:00.554	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.285	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.977	16
4	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+12.676	13
5	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+12.957	11
6	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+13.934	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+14.929	9
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+18.436	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+18.830	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+20.056	6
11	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+20.856	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.131	4
13	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+25.306	3
14	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+27.358	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+27.519	1
16	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+29.278	0
17	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+35.204	0
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+35.361	0
19	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+38.922	0
20	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+43.378	0
21	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+44.299	0
22	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+67.681	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Team HRC	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 25% · from P1	0.79 / 0.79	2.9 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.206	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.216	+0.010	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.600	+0.394	+0.209	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:38.615	+0.409	+0.344	Medium	7
Marc Marquez	1:38.684	+0.478	+0.210	Medium	22
Joan Mir	1:38.700	+0.494	+0.562	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:38.726	+0.520	+0.105	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.799	+0.593	+0.359	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:38.864	+0.658	+0.319	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:38.870	+0.664	+0.327	Medium	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.889	+0.683	+0.553	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:38.911	+0.705	+0.406	Medium	23
Jorge Martin	1:39.019	+0.813	+0.457	Medium	19
Alex Marquez	1:39.025	+0.819	+0.356	Medium	23
Miguel Oliveira	1:39.031	+0.825	+0.193	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:39.080	+0.874	+0.217	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:39.116	+0.910	+0.292	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:39.140	+0.934	+0.512	Medium	23
Luca Marini	1:39.192	+0.986	+0.308	Medium	23
Stefan Bradl	1:39.279	+1.073	+0.530	Medium	8
Andrea Dovizioso	1:39.370	+1.164	+0.226	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:39.424	+1.218	+0.320	Medium	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:39.828	+1.622	+0.781	Medium	22
Remy Gardner	1:39.890	+1.684	+1.660	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

25/25

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.285 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Francesco Bagnaia (25 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:02:04	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:11	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:05	Darryn Binder	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:11:36	Darryn Binder	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:15:57	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:39	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:38:39	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:43:15		Long lap	Long lap penalty

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Miguel Oliveira	21	14	+7
Darryn Binder	25	18	+7
Alex Marquez	22	16	+6
Jorge Martin	10	25	−15
Maverick Viñales	12	22	−10
Stefan Bradl	20	24	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	21→12	+3.7
Alex Marquez	22→13	+3.3
Joan Mir	9→6	+2.0
Remy Gardner	18→20	−6.2
Alex Rins	14→19	−7.8
Jorge Martin	10→22	−13.4

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.83%	+0.013	1	3	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.3 °C

Air

max 26.9 °C

43%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 24 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 29.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Joan Mir	01:38.194	—	18	291.8	— / —	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:38.219	+0.025	21	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.751	—	5	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:38.368	+0.174	21	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.040	+2.32%	11	Hard
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.426	+0.232	21	292.6	— / —	—			—
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:38.439	+0.245	19	291.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
6	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.458	+0.264	20	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:40.514	+1.79%	15	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:38.502	+0.308	19	291.8	Medium / Hard	1:41.568	+2.85%	11	Hard
8	Pol Espargaro	01:38.521	+0.327	20	295.0	— / —	—			—
9	Maverick Viñales	01:38.627	+0.433	20	294.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Jack Miller	01:38.754	+0.560	21	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.772	+1.03%	16	Medium
11	Marc Marquez	01:38.806	+0.612	20	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:40.309	+1.58%	5	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:38.866	+0.672	18	294.2	— / —	—			—
13	Francesco Bagnaia	01:38.898	+0.704	19	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.384	+0.64%	7	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	01:38.907	+0.713	19	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:40.114	+1.38%	10	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.979	+0.785	20	288.7	Soft / Medium	1:40.299	+1.57%	7	Medium
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.991	+0.797	20	291.1	— / —	—			—
17	Johann Zarco	01:39.033	+0.839	20	293.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:39.122	+0.928	22	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:41.031	+2.31%	7	Medium
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.182	+0.988	20	288.7	— / —	—			—
20	Stefan Bradl	01:39.322	+1.128	20	294.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:39.700	+1.506	20	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:41.285	+2.57%	6	Hard
22	Luca Marini	01:39.749	+1.555	19	290.3	Medium / Medium	1:42.102	+3.39%	5	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.035	+1.841	17	291.8	— / —	—			—
24	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:40.065	+1.871	19	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.287	+1.56%	7	Medium
25	Darryn Binder	01:41.352	+3.158	18	288.7	Medium / Medium	1:42.465	+3.76%	11	Medium

FP2 · 29.04 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.071	—	19	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:38.149	—	6	Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	01:37.272	+0.201	20	296.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.739	+0.60%	7	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.283	+0.212	18	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:38.174	+0.03%	5	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:37.368	+0.297	19	295.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
5	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.581	+0.510	21	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.794	+0.66%	9	Hard
6	Brad Binder	01:37.585	+0.514	19	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:39.558	+1.44%	5	Medium
7	Pol Espargaro	01:37.590	+0.519	21	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:40.088	+1.98%	6	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:37.726	+0.655	22	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:38.623	+0.48%	14	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:37.759	+0.688	19	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:39.219	+1.09%	6	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:37.762	+0.691	18	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:40.213	+2.10%	5	Medium
11	Johann Zarco	01:37.830	+0.759	18	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.758	+0.62%	5	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:37.842	+0.771	20	291.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.848	+0.777	16	293.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.952	+0.881	18	288.7	Medium / Soft	1:38.874	+0.74%	4	Medium
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.012	+0.941	19	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:42.180	+4.11%	5	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:38.027	+0.956	21	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:38.996	+0.86%	11	Medium
17	Luca Marini	01:38.102	+1.031	16	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:39.303	+1.18%	5	Medium
18	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.196	+1.125	20	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:39.077	+0.95%	6	Medium
19	Marc Marquez	01:38.200	+1.129	15	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:43.294	+5.24%	5	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.285	+1.214	21	289.5	Medium / Soft	1:39.688	+1.57%	12	Medium
21	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.313	+1.242	17	291.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:38.322	+1.251	18	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:39.730	+1.61%	5	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:38.353	+1.282	19	290.3	Hard / Soft	1:40.372	+2.27%	5	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:38.888	+1.817	19	289.5	Hard / Soft	1:40.483	+2.38%	9	Medium
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.960	+1.889	18	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:39.820	+1.70%	6	missing

FP3 · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.782	—	16	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:38.016	+0.27%	7	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.849	+0.067	21	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:37.748	—	10	Medium
3	Takaaki Nakagami	01:36.899	+0.117	19	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:36.925	+0.143	20	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:36.975	+0.193	16	295.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Enea Bastianini	01:36.976	+0.194	18	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:38.514	+0.78%	8	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.059	+0.277	16	292.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:37.060	+0.278	21	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.320	+0.59%	5	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:37.074	+0.292	20	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.487	+0.76%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:37.124	+0.342	21	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:38.609	+0.88%	10	Soft
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.201	+0.419	20	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:38.980	+1.26%	5	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:37.230	+0.448	20	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:38.508	+0.78%	5	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:37.293	+0.511	21	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.988	+1.27%	5	Medium
14	Brad Binder	01:37.314	+0.532	18	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:38.378	+0.65%	6	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.315	+0.533	18	291.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.494	+0.712	19	293.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Pol Espargaro	01:37.630	+0.848	18	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:38.487	+0.76%	5	Medium
18	Luca Marini	01:37.642	+0.860	20	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:38.565	+0.84%	5	Medium
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:37.731	+0.949	20	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:38.357	+0.62%	5	Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.880	+1.098	20	296.7	Hard / Soft	1:38.952	+1.23%	7	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:38.013	+1.231	16	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Remy Gardner	01:38.095	+1.313	18	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:38.913	+1.19%	7	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.207	+1.425	17	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:39.648	+1.94%	8	Medium
24	Alex Marquez	01:38.237	+1.455	14	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Darryn Binder	01:38.238	+1.456	19	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.517	—	13	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:38.259	+0.41%	5	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.600	+0.083	16	289.5	Hard / Medium	1:37.858	—	8	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:37.762	+0.245	15	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:39.096	+1.27%	5	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.853	+0.336	11	291.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.871	+0.354	17	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:38.308	+0.46%	14	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.907	+0.390	15	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:38.387	+0.54%	12	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	01:37.909	+0.392	16	292.6	Hard / Medium	1:38.956	+1.12%	14	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:37.983	+0.466	13	294.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:38.061	+0.544	15	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:39.060	+1.23%	5	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	01:38.182	+0.665	14	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:41.608	+3.83%	7	Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.193	+0.676	13	290.3	Hard / Medium	1:38.366	+0.52%	6	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:38.237	+0.720	17	290.3	Hard / Medium	1:38.513	+0.67%	13	Medium
13	Alex Rins	01:38.252	+0.735	14	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:38.874	+1.04%	5	Medium
14	Jorge Martin	01:38.268	+0.751	14	294.2	Hard / Medium	1:38.572	+0.73%	6	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:38.293	+0.776	13	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:38.770	+0.93%	6	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	01:38.314	+0.797	13	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:38.816	+0.98%	7	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.324	+0.807	11	292.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Marquez	01:38.342	+0.825	14	291.1	Hard / Soft	1:38.689	+0.85%	6	Medium
19	Marc Marquez	01:38.464	+0.947	15	291.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:38.466	+0.949	18	294.2	Hard / Medium	1:38.597	+0.76%	16	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:38.664	+1.147	15	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:39.157	+1.33%	10	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.720	+1.203	11	287.2	Hard / Medium	1:39.035	+1.20%	6	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:38.826	+1.309	14	290.3	Hard / Medium	1:39.505	+1.68%	9	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:38.967	+1.450	14	288.0	Hard / Medium	1:39.819	+2.00%	8	Medium
25	Andrea Dovizioso	01:39.042	+1.525	13	287.2	Hard / Medium	1:39.753	+1.94%	5	Medium

Q1 · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:37.003	—	7	297.5	Hard / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.135	+0.132	7	296.7	Hard / Soft
3	Pol Espargaro	01:37.138	+0.135	8	292.6	Hard / Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:37.401	+0.398	7	291.8	Hard / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:37.544	+0.541	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.668	+0.665	8	290.3	Hard / Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:37.882	+0.879	7	294.2	Hard / Soft
8	Remy Gardner	01:37.889	+0.886	7	290.3	Hard / Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:37.910	+0.907	8	290.3	Hard / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:37.937	+0.934	8	295.0	Hard / Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:37.958	+0.955	6	289.5	Hard / Soft
12	Alex Marquez	01:38.014	+1.011	8	294.2	Hard / Soft
13	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.064	+1.061	8	289.5	Hard / Soft
14	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.244	+1.241	7	293.4	Hard / Soft
15	Darryn Binder	01:38.405	+1.402	8	290.3	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 30.04

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:36.170	—	8	295.0	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:36.623	+0.453	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:36.933	+0.763	7	293.4	Hard / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:37.049	+0.879	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:37.145	+0.975	8	295.8	Hard / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:37.220	+1.050	8	300.0	Hard / Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.254	+1.084	8	293.4	Hard / Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:37.285	+1.115	7	295.0	Hard / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:37.330	+1.160	6	291.8	Hard / Soft
10	Jorge Martin	01:37.526	+1.356	7	293.4	Hard / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:37.618	+1.448	5	297.5	Hard / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:37.675	+1.505	7	295.0	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 01.05

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Takaaki Nakagami	01:37.442	—	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:38.181	—	7	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:37.669	+0.227	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:38.488	+0.31%	8	Medium
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:37.741	+0.299	8	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.188	+0.01%	5	Medium
4	Jorge Martin	01:37.836	+0.394	12	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:38.517	+0.34%	9	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	01:37.849	+0.407	12	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:38.598	+0.43%	8	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:37.862	+0.420	11	289.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:37.965	+0.523	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:38.234	+0.05%	9	Medium
8	Pol Espargaro	01:38.078	+0.636	10	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:38.127	+0.685	12	288.0	Medium / Medium	1:38.450	+0.27%	9	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:38.140	+0.698	10	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:38.856	+0.69%	5	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	01:38.165	+0.723	12	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.730	+0.56%	10	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:38.179	+0.737	11	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:38.588	+0.42%	7	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.185	+0.743	10	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:38.794	+0.62%	6	Medium
14	Brad Binder	01:38.186	+0.744	12	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:38.476	+0.30%	10	Medium
15	Maverick Viñales	01:38.296	+0.854	12	295.8	Medium / Medium	1:38.655	+0.48%	9	Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:38.305	+0.863	12	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:39.180	+1.02%	6	Medium
17	Jack Miller	01:38.383	+0.941	12	294.2	Medium / Medium	1:39.584	+1.43%	6	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:38.489	+1.047	12	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:38.759	+0.59%	9	Soft
19	Remy Gardner	01:38.492	+1.050	12	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:38.982	+0.82%	9	Medium
20	Luca Marini	01:38.500	+1.058	12	291.8	Medium / Medium	1:39.465	+1.31%	6	Medium
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:38.745	+1.303	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:40.172	+2.03%	10	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:38.788	+1.346	12	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:38.950	+0.78%	10	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:38.840	+1.398	10	289.5	Medium / Medium	1:39.327	+1.17%	5	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:39.140	+1.698	12	288.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.804	+1.65%	8	Medium
25	Stefan Bradl	01:39.153	+1.711	12	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:39.875	+1.73%	8	Medium

Race · 01.05

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:00.554	25	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.206	—	23	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.285	20	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.216	+0.01%	23	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+10.977	16	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.600	+0.40%	23	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+12.676	13	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.684	+0.49%	22	Medium
5	Jack Miller	+12.957	11	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.726	+0.53%	23	Medium
6	Joan Mir	+13.934	10	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.700	+0.50%	23	Medium
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+14.929	9	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.799	+0.60%	23	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	+18.436	8	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.864	+0.67%	23	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+18.830	7	25	missing / Medium	1:38.889	+0.70%	23	Medium
10	Brad Binder	+20.056	6	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.870	+0.68%	23	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	+20.856	5	25	Hard / Medium	1:38.911	+0.72%	23	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	+23.131	4	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.031	+0.84%	23	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	+25.306	3	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.025	+0.83%	23	Medium
14	Maverick Viñales	+27.358	2	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.116	+0.93%	23	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	+27.519	1	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.140	+0.95%	23	Medium
16	Luca Marini	+29.278	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.192	+1.00%	23	Medium
17	Andrea Dovizioso	+35.204	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.370	+1.19%	23	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+35.361	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.424	+1.24%	23	Medium
19	Alex Rins	+38.922	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.080	+0.89%	22	Medium
20	Remy Gardner	+43.378	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.890	+1.72%	20	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	+44.299	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.828	+1.65%	22	Medium
22	Jorge Martin	+67.681	0	25	Hard / Medium	1:39.019	+0.83%	19	Medium
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	5	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	9	missing / Medium	1:38.615	+0.42%	7	Medium
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	10	Hard / Medium	1:39.279	+1.09%	8	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:37.748	—	+0.275	Medium	13
Maverick Viñales	1:37.875	+0.127	+0.292	Medium	5
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.016	+0.268	+0.221	Medium	9
Johann Zarco	1:38.144*	+0.396	+0.344	Medium	4
Joan Mir	1:38.158	+0.410	+0.562	Medium	11
Jorge Martin	1:38.181	+0.433	+0.457	Medium	8
Marco Bezzecchi	1:38.212*	+0.464	+0.553	Medium	4
Marc Marquez	1:38.395	+0.647	+0.210	Medium	5
Brad Binder	1:38.407	+0.659	+0.327	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.408	+0.660	+0.512	Medium	12
Enea Bastianini	1:38.431	+0.683	+0.319	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.449*	+0.701	+0.209	Medium	4
Andrea Dovizioso	1:38.504	+0.756	+0.226	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	1:38.514	+0.766	+0.193	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:38.570*	+0.822	+0.105	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:38.579	+0.831	+0.356	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:38.690	+0.942	+0.308	Medium	9
Alex Rins	1:38.729	+0.981	+0.217	Medium	13
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:38.896	+1.148	+0.320	Medium	8
Lorenzo Savadori	1:39.242	+1.494	+0.781	Medium	8
Stefan Bradl	1:39.428	+1.680	+0.530	Medium	8
Darryn Binder	1:39.553	+1.805	+0.272	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marco Bezzecchi	56%	2 ✓
2	Johann Zarco	42%	1 ✓
3	Alex Rins	32%	4
4	Brad Binder	21%	5
5	Franco Morbidelli	18%	6
6	Miguel Oliveira	9%	11
7	Pol Espargaro	8%	3
8	Luca Marini	4%	9
9	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	13
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	7
11	Stefan Bradl	3%	10
12	Alex Marquez	2%	12
13	Remy Gardner	1%	8
14	Lorenzo Savadori	0%	14
15	Darryn Binder	0%	15

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	35%	64%	89%	1
2	Fabio Quartararo	26%	53%	83%	2
3	Takaaki Nakagami	15%	49%	79%	7
4	Marc Marquez	4%	32%	68%	5
5	Maverick Viñales	4%	27%	53%	12
6	Enea Bastianini	6%	21%	55%	11
7	Aleix Espargaro	1%	11%	40%	3
8	Joan Mir	3%	12%	37%	9
9	Jorge Martin	3%	9%	28%	10
10	Jack Miller	2%	8%	23%	4
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	11%	29%	8
12	Johann Zarco	1%	4%	17%	6

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	25%	50%	62%	70%	28%	1
Fabio Quartararo	2	23%	55%	72%	85%	13%	2
Aleix Espargaro	3	15%	41%	58%	72%	25%	3
Jack Miller	4	11%	34%	51%	71%	26%	5
Marc Marquez	5	8%	32%	55%	81%	15%	4
Johann Zarco	6	6%	25%	47%	77%	17%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	7	4%	20%	41%	76%	13%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	8	3%	12%	28%	61%	29%	9
Joan Mir	9	2%	10%	24%	67%	17%	6
Jorge Martin	10	1%	6%	14%	49%	33%	22
Enea Bastianini	11	1%	5%	15%	56%	18%	8
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	4%	11%	52%	11%	14
Pol Espargaro	13	0%	2%	7%	41%	19%	11
Alex Rins	14	0%	2%	5%	33%	20%	19
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	17%	10
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	17%	15
Fabio Di Giannantonio	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	29%	18
Remy Gardner	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	10%	20
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	11%	4%	16
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	18%	—
Miguel Oliveira	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	12
Alex Marquez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	26%	13
Andrea Dovizioso	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	12%	17
Lorenzo Savadori	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	32%	21
Darryn Binder	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	10%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,430 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.59%
S2	Fermin Aldeguer +0.39%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.47%	Cal Crutchlow +0.47%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.43%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.39%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S3	Alex Marquez	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.36%
S4	Alex Marquez	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Alex Marquez +0.53%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.01%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.23%
S3	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.34%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S4	Alex Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Alex Marquez +0.63%	Maverick Viñales +0.64%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.17%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Alex Marquez +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.49%
S4	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.46%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.33%	Brad Binder +0.40%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Jack Miller +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Aleix Espargaro +0.26%	Jack Miller +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%	Joan Mir +0.47%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.15%	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.22%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.05%	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Joan Mir +0.24%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.36%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.52%	Joan Mir +0.56%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.03%	Stefan Bradl +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.48%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.20%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.12%	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Joan Mir +0.11%	Brad Binder +0.19%	Alex Rins +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.21%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Stefan Bradl +0.20%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.49%	Maverick Viñales +0.62%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.45%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.54%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.26%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.48%	Daniel Pedrosa +0.65%
S4	Cal Crutchlow +0.15%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.41%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

100/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

56%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 0% of the time (between 0% and 39%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Alex Rins	69	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	69	—
3	Aleix Espargaro	66	−3
4	Enea Bastianini	61	−8
5	Johann Zarco	51	−18
6	Joan Mir	46	−23

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/25

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

1.912 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P21 to P15.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Maverick Viñales (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Rins	1:38.300	—	+0.217	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:38.390	+0.090	+0.512	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:38.395	+0.095	+0.105	Medium	23
Francesco Bagnaia	1:38.419	+0.119	+0.221	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:38.450	+0.150	+0.210	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:38.461	+0.161	+0.359	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:38.474	+0.174	+0.275	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:38.494	+0.194	+0.209	Medium	23
Joan Mir	1:38.497	+0.197	+0.562	Medium	22
Maverick Viñales	1:38.503	+0.203	+0.292	Medium	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Alex MarquezDucati
2025Alex MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	3/23	13%
2025	5/23	22%
2024	8/25	32%
2023	6/23	26%
2022	3/25	12%
2021	3/23	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.31%	+0.004	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.