Round 11 of 20 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2024

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

16.08 – 18.08.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:11.173	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+3.232	20
3	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+7.357	16
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.836	13
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.620	11
6	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+21.206	10
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+24.322	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+27.677	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+28.829	7
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+30.268	6
11	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+30.526	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+30.702	4
13	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+33.736	3
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+36.310	2
15	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+36.522	1
16	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+37.571	0
17	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+40.432	0
18	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+43.788	0
19	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+44.134	0
20	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+44.576	0
21	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+54.126	0
22	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	+54.923	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:59.768	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.673	9
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+7.584	7
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+9.685	6
5	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.421	5
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+10.523	4
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.941	3
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.932	2
9	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+15.101	1
10	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+16.611	0
11	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+16.759	0
12	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+17.943	0
13	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+18.304	0
14	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+19.185	0
15	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.330	0
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+22.940	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+25.830	0
18	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+26.622	0
19	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+27.458	0
20	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+37.870	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Test Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Jorge Martin · 33%	Francesco Bagnaia · 20% · from P2	0.84 / 0.84	2.2 / 2.3
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Martin · 26%	Francesco Bagnaia · 19% · from P2	0.79 / 0.79	3.1 / 3.2
Race (after the sprint)	Jorge Martin · 28%	Francesco Bagnaia · 27% · from P2	0.84 / 0.79	2.7 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.989	—	+0.221	Medium	25
Jorge Martin	1:30.256	+0.267	+0.457	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:30.385	+0.396	+0.319	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:30.636	+0.647	+0.210	Medium	24
Brad Binder	1:30.894	+0.905	+0.327	Medium	26
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.922	+0.933	+0.512	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.942	+0.953	+0.553	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.093	+1.104	+0.292	Medium	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.155	+1.166	+0.193	Medium	23
Pol Espargaro	1:31.162	+1.173	+0.406	Medium	24
Raul Fernandez	1:31.226	+1.237	+0.667	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.234	+1.245	+0.209	Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:31.359	+1.370	+0.356	Medium	25
Pedro Acosta	1:31.365	+1.376	+0.448	Medium	24
Jack Miller	1:31.386	+1.397	+0.105	Medium	24
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.400	+1.411	+0.437	Medium	26
Alex Rins	1:31.403	+1.414	+0.217	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.404	+1.415	+0.359	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:31.606	+1.617	+0.562	Medium	24
Lorenzo Savadori	1:31.691	+1.702	+0.781	Medium	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.779	+1.790	+0.275	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:31.924	+1.935	+0.344	Medium	26
Stefan Bradl	1:31.970	+1.981	+0.530	Medium	26

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

27/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

3.232 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Takaaki Nakagami, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Maverick Viñales (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

13/14

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

4.673 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P20 to P14.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Raul Fernandez (9 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:41	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:10:09	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T2
Sprint	15:10:19	Stefan Bradl	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:10:22	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:14:56	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:15:14	Joan Mir	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:16:15	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:30	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:17:49	Alex Rins	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:58	Marc Marquez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:18:06	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:19:19	Augusto Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:10:13	Luca Marini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:17:48	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:22:49	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:24:12	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:43:53	Raul Fernandez	Retired	Entered pits and retired

Race: 6 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 17 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Martin (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	12	5	+7
Raul Fernandez	20	14	+6
Enea Bastianini	7	3	+4
Marc Marquez	3	13	−10
Franco Morbidelli	8	17	−9
Miguel Oliveira	13	18	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	12→5	+4.9
Enea Bastianini	7→3	+3.7
Francesco Bagnaia	2→1	+2.5
Fabio Quartararo	15→18	−6.2
Johann Zarco	17→21	−7.9
Jack Miller	5→19	−13.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.44%	+0.048	1	3	11.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.3 °C

Air

max 25.8 °C

67%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

5 km/h

Wind

gusts 38 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Martin	01:29.654	—	20	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.894	+0.29%	5	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.872	+0.218	19	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Pol Espargaro	01:29.944	+0.290	18	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.964	+0.310	18	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
5	Brad Binder	01:30.236	+0.582	21	314.4	Hard / Medium	1:31.153	+0.58%	7	Medium
6	Pedro Acosta	01:30.283	+0.629	16	311.6	Hard / Medium	—			—
7	Maverick Viñales	01:30.300	+0.646	21	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:30.750	+0.13%	5	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.339	+0.685	20	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:30.631	—	5	Medium
9	Joan Mir	01:30.388	+0.734	16	311.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:30.400	+0.746	20	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.662	+1.14%	6	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:30.436	+0.782	21	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.446	+0.90%	10	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:30.480	+0.826	20	309.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:30.482	+0.828	19	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.552	+0.898	18	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.584	+0.930	19	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:30.627	+0.973	22	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.086	+1.61%	6	Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.810	+1.156	19	305.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Marc Marquez	01:30.835	+1.181	21	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.839	+1.185	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:30.953	+1.299	20	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:31.137	+0.56%	5	Medium
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.985	+1.331	18	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.030	+1.376	26	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:31.583	+1.05%	15	Medium
23	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.040	+1.386	19	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.653	+1.13%	5	Medium
24	Stefan Bradl	01:31.534	+1.880	20	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:31.895	+1.40%	5	Medium
25	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.568	+1.914	14	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—

Practice · 16.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.508	—	22	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.789	+0.281	23	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Jorge Martin	01:28.827	+0.319	27	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Marc Marquez	01:28.858	+0.350	26	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:29.872	—	5	Medium
5	Brad Binder	01:28.969	+0.461	25	314.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:29.056	+0.548	27	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.406	+0.59%	8	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.107	+0.599	20	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Maverick Viñales	01:29.117	+0.609	22	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.233	+0.725	24	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.413	+0.60%	5	Medium
10	Enea Bastianini	01:29.281	+0.773	24	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Pedro Acosta	01:29.308	+0.800	21	314.4	Medium / Soft	1:30.446	+0.64%	6	Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:29.329	+0.821	28	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.308	+0.49%	8	Medium
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.380	+0.872	26	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.270	+0.44%	12	Medium
14	Johann Zarco	01:29.606	+1.098	26	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.003	+1.26%	5	Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.762	+1.254	24	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.258	+1.54%	8	Soft
16	Luca Marini	01:29.809	+1.301	27	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:31.551	+1.87%	4	Medium
17	Alex Rins	01:29.822	+1.314	22	311.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.881	+1.373	23	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Raul Fernandez	01:29.952	+1.444	26	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.962	+1.21%	4	Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.058	+1.550	8	305.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Pol Espargaro	01:30.183	+1.675	12	311.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.421	+1.913	23	306.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.545	+2.037	23	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.386	+1.69%	4	Medium
24	Joan Mir	01:30.657	+2.149	23	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Stefan Bradl	01:30.895	+2.387	21	311.6	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP2 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.243	—	11	311.6	— / —	—			—
2	Pol Espargaro	01:29.295	+0.052	15	313.0	— / —	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:29.344	+0.101	14	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:29.652	—	6	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:29.374	+0.131	16	313.0	Medium / Medium	1:30.037	+0.43%	5	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.516	+0.273	14	305.0	— / —	—			—
6	Maverick Viñales	01:29.520	+0.277	14	306.3	— / —	—			—
7	Alex Marquez	01:29.640	+0.397	16	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.613	+1.07%	6	Soft
8	Pedro Acosta	01:29.808	+0.565	16	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:30.124	+0.53%	7	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.822	+0.579	12	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.457	+2.01%	5	Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:29.841	+0.598	15	310.3	— / —	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.868	+0.625	15	313.0	— / —	—			—
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.903	+0.660	14	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	01:29.908	+0.665	12	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.113	+0.51%	5	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	01:30.112	+0.869	14	306.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.321	+1.86%	5	Soft
15	Joan Mir	01:30.113	+0.870	14	307.6	— / —	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:30.114	+0.871	16	309.0	— / —	—			—
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.200	+0.957	14	310.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Brad Binder	01:30.290	+1.047	14	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:32.044	+2.67%	5	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.320	+1.077	14	306.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.338	+1.095	13	309.0	— / —	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:30.342	+1.099	16	310.3	— / —	—			—
22	Luca Marini	01:30.400	+1.157	13	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.562	+1.319	15	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.885	+1.38%	10	Soft
24	Stefan Bradl	01:30.968	+1.725	16	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.335	+1.88%	11	Soft

Q1 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jack Miller	01:28.567	—	8	311.6	Medium / Soft
2	Pol Espargaro	01:28.635	+0.068	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:28.635	+0.068	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	01:28.659	+0.092	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.047	+0.480	8	307.6	Medium / Soft
6	Augusto Fernandez	01:29.104	+0.537	8	313.0	Medium / Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:29.165	+0.598	8	315.7	Medium / Soft
8	Luca Marini	01:29.259	+0.692	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
9	Joan Mir	01:29.344	+0.777	8	309.0	Medium / Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	01:29.428	+0.861	8	309.0	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:29.552	+0.985	6	310.3	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.612	+1.045	8	306.3	Medium / Soft
13	Stefan Bradl	01:29.692	+1.125	8	314.4	Medium / Soft
14	Lorenzo Savadori	01:29.899	+1.332	7	317.1	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	01:27.748	—	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:27.889	+0.141	8	313.0	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:28.292	+0.544	9	311.6	Medium / Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:28.344	+0.596	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:28.546	+0.798	9	313.0	Medium / Soft
6	Maverick Viñales	01:28.645	+0.897	7	310.3	Medium / Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	01:28.682	+0.934	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
8	Franco Morbidelli	01:28.724	+0.976	9	315.7	Medium / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:28.732	+0.984	9	314.4	Medium / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:28.763	+1.015	7	315.7	Medium / Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:28.792	+1.044	9	311.6	Medium / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:28.910	+1.162	9	315.7	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 17.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	20:59.768	12	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.504	+0.10%	12	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+4.673	9	14	Medium / Soft	1:29.803	+0.43%	11	Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	+7.584	7	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.578	+1.30%	11	Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	+9.685	6	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.274	+0.96%	12	Soft
5	Jack Miller	+10.421	5	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.560	+1.28%	12	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+10.523	4	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.389	+1.09%	11	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+10.941	3	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.330	+1.02%	12	Medium
8	Marco Bezzecchi	+11.932	2	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.353	+1.05%	11	Medium
9	Pol Espargaro	+15.101	1	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.671	+1.40%	11	Medium
10	Pedro Acosta	+16.611	0	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.697	+1.43%	11	Medium
11	Maverick Viñales	+16.759	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.787	+1.53%	11	Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	+17.943	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.794	+1.54%	12	Soft
13	Miguel Oliveira	+18.304	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.742	+1.48%	10	Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	+19.185	0	14	Medium / Medium	1:30.759	+1.50%	11	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	+21.330	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.963	+1.73%	11	Soft
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+22.940	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.973	+1.74%	11	Soft
17	Luca Marini	+25.830	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:31.178	+1.97%	10	Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	+26.622	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:31.239	+2.04%	12	Soft
19	Joan Mir	+27.458	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:31.045	+1.82%	10	Soft
20	Alex Marquez	+37.870	0	14	Medium / Soft	1:30.404	+1.11%	11	Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:31.536	+2.37%	8	Medium
Retired	Augusto Fernandez		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:31.352	+2.17%	6	Medium
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	10	Medium / Soft	1:29.416	—	7	Soft
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	5	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:29.363	—	7	309.0	— / —	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.525	+0.162	7	315.7	— / —	—			—
3	Alex Marquez	01:29.610	+0.247	7	309.0	— / —	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.622	+0.259	7	314.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Jack Miller	01:29.722	+0.359	7	306.3	Soft / Soft	1:30.706	+0.71%	5	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:29.744	+0.381	7	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:30.064	—	5	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.829	+0.466	7	306.3	Medium / Medium	1:30.363	+0.33%	5	Medium
8	Maverick Viñales	01:29.970	+0.607	7	305.0	— / —	—			—
9	Pol Espargaro	01:30.112	+0.749	7	311.6	— / —	—			—
10	Pedro Acosta	01:30.113	+0.750	7	313.0	— / —	—			—
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.147	+0.784	7	310.3	— / —	—			—
12	Enea Bastianini	01:30.147	+0.784	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:30.509	+0.49%	5	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:30.153	+0.790	7	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.196	+0.833	7	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:30.364	+0.33%	5	Medium
15	Luca Marini	01:30.241	+0.878	7	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:30.762	+0.78%	5	Medium
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.326	+0.963	7	311.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:30.393	+1.030	6	306.3	— / —	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:30.512	+1.149	7	309.0	— / —	—			—
19	Joan Mir	01:30.561	+1.198	7	310.3	— / —	—			—
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.617	+1.254	7	309.0	— / —	—			—
21	Jorge Martin	01:30.696	+1.333	7	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:31.080	+1.13%	5	Medium
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.137	+1.774	6	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Alex Rins	01:31.315	+1.952	6	307.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Stefan Bradl	01:31.391	+2.028	7	313.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

Race · 18.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	42:11.173	25	28	Medium / Medium	1:29.989	—	25	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+3.232	20	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.256	+0.30%	23	Medium
3	Enea Bastianini	+7.357	16	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.385	+0.44%	25	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	+13.836	13	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.636	+0.72%	24	Medium
5	Brad Binder	+18.620	11	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.894	+1.01%	26	Medium
6	Marco Bezzecchi	+21.206	10	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.942	+1.06%	24	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	+24.322	9	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.093	+1.23%	24	Medium
8	Franco Morbidelli	+27.677	8	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.922	+1.04%	24	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+28.829	7	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.234	+1.38%	24	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	+30.268	6	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.359	+1.52%	25	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	+30.526	5	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.162	+1.30%	24	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	+30.702	4	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.155	+1.30%	23	Medium
13	Pedro Acosta	+33.736	3	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.365	+1.53%	24	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+36.310	2	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.404	+1.57%	24	Medium
15	Augusto Fernandez	+36.522	1	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.400	+1.57%	26	Medium
16	Alex Rins	+37.571	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.403	+1.57%	23	Medium
17	Joan Mir	+40.432	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.606	+1.80%	24	Medium
18	Fabio Quartararo	+43.788	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.779	+1.99%	22	Medium
19	Jack Miller	+44.134	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.386	+1.55%	24	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	+44.576	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.691	+1.89%	23	Medium
21	Johann Zarco	+54.126	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.924	+2.15%	26	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	+54.923	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:31.970	+2.20%	26	Medium
Retired	Luca Marini		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Raul Fernandez		0	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.226	+1.38%	22	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.772*	—	+0.221	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	1:29.783	+0.011	+0.457	Medium	5
Franco Morbidelli	1:29.969	+0.197	+0.512	Medium	10
Pedro Acosta	1:30.029	+0.257	+0.448	Medium	6
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.116	+0.344	+0.275	Medium	5
Jack Miller	1:30.213	+0.441	+0.105	Medium	7
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.364	+0.592	+0.193	Medium	5
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.407	+0.635	+0.209	Medium	7
Brad Binder	1:30.411	+0.639	+0.327	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:30.458	+0.686	+0.210	Medium	17
Alex Rins	1:30.563	+0.791	+0.217	Medium	5
Luca Marini	1:30.737*	+0.965	+0.308	Medium	4
Augusto Fernandez	1:30.794*	+1.022	+0.437	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:30.983*	+1.211	+0.344	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:31.610*	+1.838	+0.530	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Pedro Acosta	57%	4
2	Jack Miller	41%	1 ✓
3	Miguel Oliveira	30%	3
4	Augusto Fernandez	21%	6
5	Luca Marini	19%	8
6	Fabio Quartararo	11%	5
7	Raul Fernandez	8%	10
8	Johann Zarco	4%	7
9	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	12
10	Alex Rins	3%	11
11	Stefan Bradl	4%	13
12	Pol Espargaro	1%	2 ✓
13	Joan Mir	1%	9
14	Lorenzo Savadori	0%	14

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Martin	35%	64%	88%	1
2	Marc Marquez	23%	51%	80%	3
3	Franco Morbidelli	14%	47%	77%	8
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	32%	67%	2
5	Alex Marquez	5%	26%	53%	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	7%	23%	56%	4
7	Brad Binder	2%	13%	40%	12
8	Enea Bastianini	3%	15%	38%	7
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	9%	29%	6
10	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	9%	26%	9
11	Jack Miller	3%	10%	29%	5
12	Pol Espargaro	1%	4%	20%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	33%	66%	83%	93%	5%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	2	20%	52%	70%	84%	14%	1
Marc Marquez	3	14%	45%	66%	85%	12%	—
Aleix Espargaro	4	8%	30%	50%	72%	26%	3
Jack Miller	5	8%	30%	55%	90%	5%	5
Maverick Viñales	6	5%	21%	44%	83%	8%	11
Enea Bastianini	7	3%	16%	34%	75%	14%	4
Franco Morbidelli	8	3%	13%	30%	77%	5%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	7%	17%	63%	17%	8
Pol Espargaro	10	1%	6%	14%	56%	16%	9
Alex Marquez	11	1%	4%	11%	48%	15%	20
Brad Binder	12	1%	3%	8%	44%	11%	7
Miguel Oliveira	13	1%	2%	5%	33%	15%	13
Pedro Acosta	14	1%	2%	5%	30%	5%	10
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	1%	3%	21%	11%	12
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	14%	—
Johann Zarco	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	17%	15
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	17%	17
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	25%	19
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	5%	14
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	17%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	16
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	19%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	20%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Martin	1	28%	58%	70%	77%	23%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	2	27%	59%	70%	76%	24%	1
Marc Marquez	3	27%	63%	76%	83%	17%	4
Aleix Espargaro	4	4%	21%	43%	73%	23%	9
Jack Miller	5	2%	13%	31%	68%	25%	19
Maverick Viñales	6	0%	5%	17%	67%	13%	7
Enea Bastianini	7	6%	32%	55%	80%	17%	3
Franco Morbidelli	8	2%	16%	36%	76%	16%	8
Marco Bezzecchi	9	2%	15%	35%	75%	16%	6
Pol Espargaro	10	0%	2%	9%	51%	20%	11
Alex Marquez	11	1%	5%	19%	63%	23%	10
Brad Binder	12	1%	10%	28%	75%	14%	5
Miguel Oliveira	13	0%	1%	5%	40%	21%	12
Pedro Acosta	14	0%	1%	5%	42%	20%	13
Fabio Quartararo	15	0%	0%	1%	21%	12%	18
Augusto Fernandez	16	0%	0%	0%	4%	23%	15
Johann Zarco	17	0%	0%	0%	8%	19%	21
Luca Marini	18	0%	0%	0%	5%	7%	—
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	30%	17
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	8%	21%	—
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	23%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	14
Stefan Bradl	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	18%	22
Lorenzo Savadori	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	44% → 63%	+19	16% → 27%
Enea Bastianini	20% → 32%	+12	5% → 6%
Francesco Bagnaia	48% → 59%	+11	19% → 27%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	26% → 5%	−21	6% → 0%
Jack Miller	26% → 13%	−13	7% → 2%
Aleix Espargaro	33% → 21%	−12	11% → 4%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:29.416	—	+0.210	Soft	7
Francesco Bagnaia	1:29.504	+0.088	+0.221	Soft	12
Jorge Martin	1:29.803	+0.387	+0.457	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:30.274	+0.858	+0.319	Soft	12
Brad Binder	1:30.330	+0.914	+0.327	Medium	12
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.353	+0.937	+0.553	Medium	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.389	+0.973	+0.512	Soft	11
Alex Marquez	1:30.404	+0.988	+0.356	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:30.560	+1.144	+0.105	Medium	12
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.578	+1.162	+0.209	Soft	11
Pol Espargaro	1:30.671	+1.255	+0.406	Medium	11
Pedro Acosta	1:30.697	+1.281	+0.448	Medium	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.742	+1.326	+0.193	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:30.759	+1.343	+0.667	Medium	11
Maverick Viñales	1:30.787	+1.371	+0.292	Soft	11
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.794	+1.378	+0.275	Soft	12
Johann Zarco	1:30.963	+1.547	+0.344	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:30.973	+1.557	+0.359	Soft	11
Joan Mir	1:31.045	+1.629	+0.562	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:31.178	+1.762	+0.308	Soft	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:31.239	+1.823	+0.781	Soft	12
Augusto Fernandez	1:31.352	+1.936	+0.437	Medium	6
Alex Rins	1:31.536	+2.120	+0.217	Medium	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Jorge Martin	241	—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	238	−3
3	Enea Bastianini	192	−49
4	Marc Marquez	179	−62
5	Maverick Viñales	130	−111
6	Pedro Acosta	122	−119

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

5.191 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P12 to P7.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.537	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:30.700	+0.163	+0.327	Medium	26
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.761	+0.224	+0.553	Medium	26
Alex Marquez	1:30.800	+0.263	+0.356	Medium	26
Luca Marini	1:30.871	+0.334	+0.308	Medium	25
Maverick Viñales	1:30.880	+0.343	+0.292	Medium	23
Jorge Martin	1:30.946	+0.409	+0.457	Medium	26
Miguel Oliveira	1:31.067	+0.530	+0.193	Medium	4
Joan Mir	1:31.110	+0.573	+0.562	Medium	9
Aleix Espargaro	1:31.173	+0.636	+0.209	Medium	25

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	96%	+0.88%	+0.060	1	3	10.4
Soft	4%	+0.74%	+0.042	0	0	12.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.