Round 10 of 20 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2024

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

02.08 – 04.08.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	39:51.879	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.931	20
3	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+5.866	16
4	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.906	13
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+7.736	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+9.514	10
7	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.741	9
8	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+14.016	8
9	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+16.386	7
10	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+23.609	6
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+24.202	5
12	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+25.767	4
13	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+26.751	3
14	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+26.953	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+37.278	1
16	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+37.605	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+47.507	0
18	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+59.137	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	19:49.929	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.094	9
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.023	7
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.644	6
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+8.777	5
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.043	4
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.504	3
8	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.689	2
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.828	1
10	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+13.328	0
11	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+15.373	0
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+18.234	0
13	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+18.326	0
14	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+18.492	0
15	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.050	0
16	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.674	0
17	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+29.302	0
18	Remy Gardner	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+31.070	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Aleix Espargaro · 23%	Enea Bastianini · 14% · from P3	0.96 / 0.96	1.5 / 1.4
Race (after the grid)	Aleix Espargaro · 25%	Enea Bastianini · 15% · from P3	0.86 / 0.86	2.3 / 2.3
Race (after the sprint)	Aleix Espargaro · 34%	Enea Bastianini · 11% · from P3	0.81 / 0.86	2.5 / 2.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

2/20

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.931 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Alex Marquez vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/10

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

1.094 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P18 to P11.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Maverick Viñales (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:53	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:02:53	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:02	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:15:06	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:15:56	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Sprint	15:18:30	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:21:23	Marc Marquez	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	13:03:27	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:03:27	Raul Fernandez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:04:14	Brad Binder	Technical problem	stopped with technical issue
Race	13:04:37	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	double long lap penalty
Race	13:12:16	Franco Morbidelli	Long lap	double long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	13:25:26	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for rider #10 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards double long lap penalty for rider #21 Morbidelli

Sprint: 8 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	18	12	+6
Luca Marini	19	14	+5
Joan Mir	20	16	+4
Aleix Espargaro	1	4	−3
Maverick Viñales	8	10	−2
Alex Marquez	5	6	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10→5	+3.6
Enea Bastianini	3→1	+3.1
Jorge Martin	4→2	+2.8
Augusto Fernandez	17→16	−2.9
Aleix Espargaro	1→6	−3.2
Maverick Viñales	8→13	−5.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.80%	+0.053	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

19.0 °C

Air

max 19.2 °C

57%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 32 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Raul Fernandez	57%	4
2	Pedro Acosta	41%	2 ✓
3	Miguel Oliveira	30%	5
4	Fabio Quartararo	21%	8
5	Johann Zarco	19%	6
6	Luca Marini	11%	9
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	11
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	7
9	Remy Gardner	3%	12
10	Franco Morbidelli	3%	3
11	Alex Marquez	4%	1 ✓
12	Joan Mir	1%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	35%	64%	87%	1
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	23%	51%	80%	10
3	Jack Miller	14%	47%	77%	11
4	Marc Marquez	5%	32%	67%	7
5	Maverick Viñales	5%	26%	53%	8
6	Pedro Acosta	7%	23%	56%	9
7	Marco Bezzecchi	2%	13%	40%	12
8	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	14%	38%	2
9	Enea Bastianini	3%	9%	29%	3
10	Brad Binder	3%	9%	26%	6
11	Jorge Martin	3%	10%	29%	4
12	Alex Marquez	1%	4%	20%	5

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	23%	48%	62%	71%	27%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	2	21%	54%	72%	86%	11%	—
Enea Bastianini	3	14%	44%	65%	83%	14%	1
Jorge Martin	4	12%	41%	66%	90%	5%	2
Alex Marquez	5	7%	27%	49%	78%	15%	6
Brad Binder	6	6%	22%	45%	80%	11%	4
Marc Marquez	7	5%	18%	36%	79%	9%	—
Maverick Viñales	8	4%	14%	30%	75%	8%	8
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	9%	20%	70%	5%	5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	2%	7%	15%	55%	17%	9
Jack Miller	11	2%	5%	12%	54%	5%	7
Marco Bezzecchi	12	1%	3%	8%	43%	14%	—
Franco Morbidelli	13	1%	3%	7%	39%	2%	—
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	2%	5%	29%	5%	12
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	2%	3%	22%	15%	10
Johann Zarco	16	0%	1%	2%	15%	17%	14
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	1%	2%	10%	14%	13
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	1%	1%	7%	11%	11
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	18%	15
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	4%	26%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	11%	17
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	11%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Aleix Espargaro	1	34%	60%	71%	76%	23%	6
Francesco Bagnaia	2	19%	48%	65%	75%	24%	3
Enea Bastianini	3	11%	38%	62%	82%	17%	1
Jorge Martin	4	5%	24%	46%	73%	23%	2
Alex Marquez	5	11%	39%	61%	75%	23%	7
Brad Binder	6	5%	24%	50%	84%	13%	—
Marc Marquez	7	13%	44%	68%	82%	17%	4
Maverick Viñales	8	0%	4%	15%	67%	13%	13
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	16%	39%	74%	21%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	0%	0%	4%	43%	17%	5
Jack Miller	11	0%	0%	2%	32%	25%	12
Marco Bezzecchi	12	0%	0%	1%	28%	17%	8
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	0%	1%	20%	16%	10
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	1%	5%	48%	20%	—
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	7%	51%	20%	—
Johann Zarco	16	0%	0%	0%	9%	19%	14
Augusto Fernandez	17	0%	0%	1%	27%	23%	16
Fabio Quartararo	18	0%	0%	2%	34%	12%	11
Luca Marini	19	0%	0%	0%	3%	7%	17
Joan Mir	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	30%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	10%	15%	15
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	7%	12%	18

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	20% → 44%	+24	5% → 13%
Alex Marquez	28% → 39%	+11	8% → 11%
Aleix Espargaro	52% → 60%	+8	25% → 34%
Dropping
Maverick Viñales	15% → 4%	−11	3% → 0%
Jorge Martin	34% → 24%	−10	11% → 5%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	8% → 0%	−8	2% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	222	—
2	Jorge Martin	212	−10
3	Marc Marquez	166	−56
4	Enea Bastianini	155	−67
5	Maverick Viñales	125	−97
6	Pedro Acosta	110	−112

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2023 edition

118

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/20

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

0.215 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P16 to P4.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Maverick Viñales (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2023 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	2:01.022	—	+0.327	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	2:01.033	+0.011	+0.292	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.084	+0.062	+0.221	Medium	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.216	+0.194	+0.209	Medium	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:01.362	+0.340	+0.320	Medium	15
Jorge Martin	2:01.527	+0.505	+0.457	Medium	18
Enea Bastianini	2:01.533	+0.511	+0.319	Soft	13
Fabio Quartararo	2:01.539	+0.517	+0.275	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	2:01.634	+0.612	+0.210	Medium	11
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.678	+0.656	+0.193	Medium	18

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

2023 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.76%	+0.193	1	3	9.0
Soft	9%	+0.93%	+0.139	0	0	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.