Round 12 of 20 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2024

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

30.08 – 01.09.2024

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:47.082	25
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+4.789	20
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+14.904	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+16.459	13
5	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+18.776	11
6	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+20.549	10
7	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+24.759	9
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+37.159	8
9	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+39.420	7
10	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+40.602	6
11	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+41.782	5
12	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+42.083	4
13	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+43.264	3
14	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+49.735	2
15	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+55.966	1
16	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+73.322	0
17	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+112.386	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	19:50.034	12
2	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+2.961	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+6.694	7
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+9.950	6
5	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+11.749	5
6	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.144	4
7	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+14.291	3
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.836	2
9	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+20.298	1
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+20.448	0
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse Racing	+20.678	0
12	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	Red Bull GASGAS Tech3	+21.429	0
13	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+22.110	0
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+22.440	0
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+23.468	0
16	Luca Marini	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+26.822	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+26.910	0
18	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+31.147	0
19	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+37.642	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marc Marquez · 29% ✓	Marc Marquez · 29% · from P1	0.80 / 0.80	2.5 / 2.4
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 30% ✓	Marc Marquez · 30% · from P1	0.66 / 0.66	3.2 / 3.2
Race (after the sprint)	Marc Marquez · 42% ✓	Marc Marquez · 42% · from P1	0.78 / 0.66	2.2 / 3.2

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:48.683	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:48.882	+0.199	+0.457	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:49.113	+0.430	+0.356	Medium	15
Francesco Bagnaia	1:49.239	+0.556	+0.221	Medium	15
Brad Binder	1:49.407	+0.724	+0.327	Medium	21
Pedro Acosta	1:49.452	+0.769	+0.448	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:49.509	+0.826	+0.319	Medium	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:49.560	+0.877	+0.512	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:49.657	+0.974	+0.553	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:49.657	+0.974	+0.320	Medium	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:50.210	+1.527	+0.437	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:50.228	+1.545	+0.209	Medium	21
Alex Rins	1:50.239	+1.556	+0.217	Medium	21
Jack Miller	1:50.449	+1.766	+0.105	Medium	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:50.460	+1.777	+0.359	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:50.523	+1.840	+0.344	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:50.706	+2.023	+0.308	Medium	21
Raul Fernandez	1:50.721	+2.038	+0.667	Medium	21
Joan Mir	1:50.823	+2.140	+0.562	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:52.193	+3.510	+0.292	Medium	8

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

23/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

4.789 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P21 to P9.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Fabio Di Giannantonio (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

11/11

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

2.961 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Fabio Quartararo, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Luca Marini (10 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:51	Aleix Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:03:27	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:05:29	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:07:07	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:16:25	Franco Morbidelli	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:03:28	Luca Marini	Pit-lane start	Starting from pit lane
Race	14:04:16	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:19	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:23	Maverick Viñales	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:34:45	Alex Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:34:45	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 16 second penalty for riders #25, #43 & #49 due to Technical regulations infringement.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marc Marquez (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	15	8	+7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	10	+6
Joan Mir	22	18	+4
Maverick Viñales	12	20	−8
Aleix Espargaro	11	16	−5
Johann Zarco	10	14	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	21→9	+6.7
Enea Bastianini	14→5	+6.2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16→8	+4.5
Jack Miller	15→15	−3.2
Johann Zarco	10→13	−4.4
Raul Fernandez	9→16	−8.0

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+1.41%	−0.013	1	3	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.4 °C

Air

max 26.3 °C

53%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 21 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 30.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:48.289	—	13	346.1	Soft / Medium	1:51.676	+2.46%	6	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:48.772	+0.483	18	341.8	Medium / Medium	1:48.994	—	6	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	01:48.902	+0.613	18	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.239	+1.14%	9	Medium
4	Brad Binder	01:48.952	+0.663	19	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:51.704	+2.49%	14	Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.954	+0.665	13	337.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Alex Marquez	01:49.044	+0.755	18	340.7	Medium / Medium	1:50.532	+1.41%	14	Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:49.086	+0.797	18	344.0	Soft / Medium	1:50.846	+1.70%	6	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:49.115	+0.826	19	347.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.256	+1.16%	5	Medium
9	Enea Bastianini	01:49.220	+0.931	20	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:52.296	+3.03%	15	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.261	+0.972	16	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:52.210	+2.95%	5	Medium
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:49.371	+1.082	17	344.0	Medium / Soft	1:50.606	+1.48%	9	Medium
12	Maverick Viñales	01:49.449	+1.160	16	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:51.015	+1.85%	5	Medium
13	Joan Mir	01:49.565	+1.276	16	344.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:49.648	+1.359	18	339.6	Soft / Medium	1:51.154	+1.98%	10	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.655	+1.366	18	338.6	Soft / Medium	1:51.721	+2.50%	5	Medium
16	Augusto Fernandez	01:49.669	+1.380	19	342.9	Soft / Medium	1:50.597	+1.47%	15	Medium
17	Johann Zarco	01:49.766	+1.477	18	341.8	Soft / Medium	1:51.484	+2.29%	10	Medium
18	Fabio Quartararo	01:50.011	+1.722	19	335.4	Soft / Medium	1:51.793	+2.57%	15	Medium
19	Luca Marini	01:50.045	+1.756	17	345.0	Soft / Medium	1:53.427	+4.07%	5	Medium
20	Raul Fernandez	01:50.133	+1.844	16	340.7	Medium / Medium	1:52.647	+3.35%	5	Medium
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:50.216	+1.927	14	340.7	Soft / Medium	1:52.074	+2.83%	6	Medium
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:51.463	+3.174	14	342.9	Medium / Medium	—			—

Practice · 30.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:45.801	—	24	339.6	— / —	—			—
2	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.073	+0.272	21	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.440	+1.23%	5	Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:46.117	+0.316	22	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.468	+0.33%	6	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:46.379	+0.578	22	345.0	— / —	—			—
5	Alex Marquez	01:46.406	+0.605	17	334.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:46.591	+0.790	20	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:46.705	+0.904	23	339.6	— / —	—			—
8	Johann Zarco	01:46.732	+0.931	23	342.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Raul Fernandez	01:46.840	+1.039	22	338.6	Medium / Soft	1:48.964	+0.79%	10	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:46.855	+1.054	20	342.9	— / —	—			—
11	Brad Binder	01:46.884	+1.083	21	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Pedro Acosta	01:46.932	+1.131	22	346.1	Medium / Soft	1:48.111	—	6	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:46.946	+1.145	18	334.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Marco Bezzecchi	01:47.029	+1.228	24	339.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Enea Bastianini	01:47.031	+1.230	23	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.568	+1.35%	5	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:47.269	+1.468	21	341.8	Medium / Soft	1:52.168	+3.75%	6	Soft
17	Luca Marini	01:47.280	+1.479	22	338.6	— / —	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:47.302	+1.501	19	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.044	+0.86%	4	Soft
19	Alex Rins	01:47.400	+1.599	20	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:48.761	+0.60%	5	Soft
20	Fabio Quartararo	01:47.401	+1.600	20	336.5	— / —	—			—
21	Joan Mir	01:47.843	+2.042	21	340.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.441	+2.640	22	335.4	Medium / Soft	1:50.774	+2.46%	10	Soft

FP2 · 31.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:49.812	—	11	342.9	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:50.322	+0.510	13	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:54.798	+3.21%	5	Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:50.372	+0.560	13	346.1	Soft / Soft	1:54.126	+2.60%	4	Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	01:50.396	+0.584	12	347.3	Medium / Soft	1:51.231	—	7	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.513	+0.701	13	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:53.615	+2.14%	5	Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:50.529	+0.717	14	348.4	Medium / Soft	1:53.382	+1.93%	11	Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:50.615	+0.803	12	340.7	Medium / Soft	1:51.524	+0.26%	5	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:50.836	+1.024	12	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:55.006	+3.39%	6	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:50.914	+1.102	12	339.6	Medium / Soft	1:56.367	+4.62%	5	Soft
10	Fabio Quartararo	01:51.012	+1.200	14	338.6	Soft / Soft	1:53.682	+2.20%	11	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:51.156	+1.344	13	345.0	Soft / Soft	1:54.655	+3.08%	6	Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:51.192	+1.380	12	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:52.655	+1.28%	7	Soft
13	Enea Bastianini	01:51.251	+1.439	13	345.0	Medium / Soft	1:53.904	+2.40%	6	Soft
14	Maverick Viñales	01:51.481	+1.669	12	338.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Joan Mir	01:51.632	+1.820	13	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:56.900	+5.10%	6	Soft
16	Marco Bezzecchi	01:51.898	+2.086	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	1:54.611	+3.04%	5	Soft
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:51.901	+2.089	10	337.5	Soft / Soft	1:53.303	+1.86%	5	Soft
18	Johann Zarco	01:52.632	+2.820	12	337.5	Medium / Soft	1:54.568	+3.00%	5	Soft
19	Luca Marini	01:53.104	+3.292	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:53.233	+3.421	11	341.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:53.277	+3.465	10	340.7	Soft / Soft	1:53.677	+2.20%	5	Soft
22	Aleix Espargaro	01:54.269	+4.457	8	341.8	Medium / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 31.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Brad Binder	01:47.958	—	7	347.3	Medium / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:48.018	+0.060	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:48.086	+0.128	7	346.1	Soft / Soft
4	Enea Bastianini	01:48.542	+0.584	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
5	Jack Miller	01:48.649	+0.691	7	344.0	Soft / Soft
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:48.687	+0.729	8	340.7	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:48.775	+0.817	8	335.4	Soft / Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.081	+1.123	7	338.6	Soft / Soft
9	Augusto Fernandez	01:49.238	+1.280	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:49.802	+1.844	7	345.0	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:49.872	+1.914	7	341.8	Soft / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:50.120	+2.162	7	346.1	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 31.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:46.766	—	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
2	Pedro Acosta	01:47.606	+0.840	7	349.5	Medium / Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:47.608	+0.842	7	345.0	Medium / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:47.642	+0.876	5	345.0	Medium / Soft
5	Alex Marquez	01:47.807	+1.041	7	346.1	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.114	+1.348	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
7	Brad Binder	01:48.492	+1.726	5	349.5	Medium / Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:48.550	+1.784	7	344.0	Medium / Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	01:48.923	+2.157	8	340.7	Medium / Soft
10	Johann Zarco	01:49.080	+2.314	7	338.6	Medium / Soft
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.707	+2.941	7	342.9	Medium / Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:50.526	+3.760	7	339.6	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 31.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	19:50.034	12	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.462	—	9	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	+2.961	9	11	Medium / Soft	1:47.965	+0.47%	9	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+6.694	7	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.429	+0.90%	9	Soft
4	Alex Marquez	+9.950	6	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.784	+1.23%	9	Soft
5	Miguel Oliveira	+11.749	5	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.825	+1.27%	9	Soft
6	Brad Binder	+14.144	4	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.069	+1.50%	9	Soft
7	Enea Bastianini	+14.291	3	11	Medium / Soft	1:48.845	+1.29%	9	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	+18.836	2	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.565	+1.96%	9	Soft
9	Francesco Bagnaia	+20.298	1	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.726	+2.11%	9	Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+20.448	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.669	+2.05%	9	Soft
11	Raul Fernandez	+20.678	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.997	+2.36%	9	Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	+21.429	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.432	+1.83%	9	Soft
13	Jack Miller	+22.110	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.956	+2.32%	9	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+22.440	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.430	+1.83%	9	Soft
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+23.468	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.621	+2.01%	9	Soft
16	Luca Marini	+26.822	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:50.012	+2.37%	9	Soft
17	Alex Rins	+26.910	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:49.972	+2.34%	9	Soft
18	Joan Mir	+31.147	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:50.491	+2.82%	9	Soft
19	Maverick Viñales	+37.642	0	11	Medium / Soft	1:50.593	+2.91%	9	Soft
Out on lap 1	Aleix Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	4	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	1	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 01.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Martin	02:02.388	—	5	336.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
2	Jack Miller	02:02.580	+0.192	5	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3	Augusto Fernandez	02:03.341	+0.953	5	323.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Enea Bastianini	02:03.350	+0.962	5	335.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	02:03.503	+1.115	5	333.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Johann Zarco	02:03.936	+1.548	5	331.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Luca Marini	02:03.959	+1.571	5	328.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	02:04.165	+1.777	5	333.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
9	Miguel Oliveira	02:04.184	+1.796	5	329.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
10	Pedro Acosta	02:04.265	+1.877	5	328.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	02:04.512	+2.124	5	333.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
12	Brad Binder	02:04.553	+2.165	5	330.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:04.958	+2.570	5	323.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
14	Raul Fernandez	02:04.979	+2.591	5	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
15	Alex Rins	02:05.084	+2.696	5	327.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
16	Joan Mir	02:05.677	+3.289	5	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	02:06.021	+3.633	5	328.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
18	Fabio Quartararo	02:06.022	+3.634	5	331.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	02:06.748	+4.360	5	326.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
20	Aleix Espargaro	02:08.943	+6.555	5	326.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
21	Alex Marquez	02:09.009	+6.621	3	332.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
Retired	Marc Marquez		—	0	0.0	— / —

Race · 01.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:47.082	25	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.683	—	21	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	+4.789	20	23	Medium / Medium	1:48.882	+0.18%	21	Medium
3	Pedro Acosta	+14.904	16	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.452	+0.71%	21	Medium
4	Brad Binder	+16.459	13	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.407	+0.67%	21	Medium
5	Enea Bastianini	+18.776	11	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.509	+0.76%	21	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	+20.549	10	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.560	+0.81%	21	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	+24.759	9	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.657	+0.90%	21	Medium
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+37.159	8	23	Medium / Medium	1:49.657	+0.90%	21	Medium
9	Alex Rins	+39.420	7	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.239	+1.43%	21	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	+40.602	6	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.228	+1.42%	21	Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	+41.782	5	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.460	+1.64%	21	Medium
12	Augusto Fernandez	+42.083	4	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.210	+1.41%	21	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	+43.264	3	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.523	+1.69%	21	Medium
14	Joan Mir	+49.735	2	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.823	+1.97%	21	Medium
15	Jack Miller	+55.966	1	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.449	+1.63%	21	Medium
16	Raul Fernandez	+73.322	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.721	+1.88%	21	Medium
17	Luca Marini	+112.386	0	23	Medium / Medium	1:50.706	+1.86%	21	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:49.113	+0.40%	15	Medium
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	5	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	17	Medium / Medium	1:49.239	+0.51%	15	Medium
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	10	Medium / Medium	1:52.193	+3.23%	8	Medium
Out on lap 1	Miguel Oliveira		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:48.304*	—	+0.319	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Brad Binder	56%	1 ✓
2	Pedro Acosta	41%	2 ✓
3	Jack Miller	30%	5
4	Enea Bastianini	20%	4
5	Augusto Fernandez	19%	9
6	Marco Bezzecchi	10%	3
7	Joan Mir	8%	12
8	Fabio Quartararo	4%	7
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	6
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	8
11	Alex Rins	4%	11
12	Luca Marini	2%	10

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Pedro Acosta	35%	64%	88%	2
2	Alex Marquez	22%	51%	80%	5
3	Brad Binder	14%	46%	76%	7
4	Marc Marquez	5%	32%	67%	1
5	Jorge Martin	5%	25%	53%	4
6	Aleix Espargaro	7%	22%	56%	11
7	Johann Zarco	2%	12%	40%	10
8	Francesco Bagnaia	3%	14%	38%	3
9	Franco Morbidelli	3%	9%	29%	6
10	Raul Fernandez	3%	9%	26%	9
11	Maverick Viñales	3%	10%	29%	12
12	Miguel Oliveira	1%	4%	20%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	29%	59%	74%	84%	15%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	23%	59%	78%	93%	5%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	3	14%	45%	64%	84%	13%	9
Jorge Martin	4	11%	38%	62%	89%	5%	2
Alex Marquez	5	6%	25%	48%	79%	15%	4
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	23%	47%	86%	5%	—
Brad Binder	7	4%	16%	35%	77%	11%	6
Miguel Oliveira	8	3%	11%	27%	70%	15%	5
Raul Fernandez	9	1%	7%	19%	70%	5%	11
Johann Zarco	10	1%	5%	13%	56%	16%	—
Aleix Espargaro	11	1%	3%	9%	42%	25%	—
Maverick Viñales	12	1%	3%	7%	46%	8%	19
Marco Bezzecchi	13	1%	2%	5%	33%	16%	10
Enea Bastianini	14	0%	2%	4%	27%	13%	7
Jack Miller	15	0%	1%	3%	22%	5%	13
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	17%	15
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	1%	1%	10%	11%	8
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	7%	11%	14
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	16%	12
Luca Marini	20	0%	0%	1%	4%	17%	16
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	21%	17
Joan Mir	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	18

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	42%	72%	80%	83%	17%	1
Pedro Acosta	2	23%	59%	74%	81%	19%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	3	1%	7%	21%	62%	23%	—
Jorge Martin	4	18%	53%	68%	77%	23%	2
Alex Marquez	5	7%	33%	58%	76%	22%	—
Franco Morbidelli	6	4%	24%	51%	80%	16%	6
Brad Binder	7	2%	19%	44%	80%	14%	4
Miguel Oliveira	8	3%	19%	42%	74%	21%	—
Raul Fernandez	9	0%	1%	4%	37%	23%	16
Johann Zarco	10	0%	3%	12%	58%	19%	13
Aleix Espargaro	11	0%	1%	6%	43%	23%	10
Maverick Viñales	12	0%	0%	0%	12%	13%	—
Marco Bezzecchi	13	0%	0%	3%	33%	16%	7
Enea Bastianini	14	1%	9%	26%	73%	17%	5
Jack Miller	15	0%	0%	0%	10%	25%	15
Fabio Di Giannantonio	16	0%	0%	2%	27%	16%	8
Fabio Quartararo	17	0%	1%	4%	35%	12%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	2%	27%	14%	11
Augusto Fernandez	19	0%	0%	2%	27%	22%	12
Luca Marini	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	17
Alex Rins	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	9
Joan Mir	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	30%	14

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Jorge Martin	34% → 53%	+18	10% → 18%
Marc Marquez	58% → 72%	+13	30% → 42%
Pedro Acosta	50% → 59%	+9	21% → 23%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	41% → 7%	−34	14% → 1%
Raul Fernandez	9% → 1%	−8	2% → 0%
Johann Zarco	7% → 3%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:47.462	—	+0.210	Soft	9
Jorge Martin	1:47.965	+0.503	+0.457	Soft	9
Pedro Acosta	1:48.429	+0.967	+0.448	Soft	9
Alex Marquez	1:48.784	+1.322	+0.356	Soft	9
Miguel Oliveira	1:48.825	+1.363	+0.193	Soft	9
Enea Bastianini	1:48.845	+1.383	+0.319	Soft	9
Brad Binder	1:49.069	+1.607	+0.327	Soft	9
Takaaki Nakagami	1:49.430	+1.968	+0.359	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:49.432	+1.970	+0.437	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:49.565	+2.103	+0.275	Soft	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:49.621	+2.159	+0.320	Soft	9
Marco Bezzecchi	1:49.669	+2.207	+0.553	Soft	9
Francesco Bagnaia	1:49.726	+2.264	+0.221	Soft	9
Jack Miller	1:49.956	+2.494	+0.105	Soft	9
Alex Rins	1:49.972	+2.510	+0.217	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:49.997	+2.535	+0.667	Soft	9
Luca Marini	1:50.012	+2.550	+0.308	Soft	9
Joan Mir	1:50.491	+3.029	+0.562	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:50.593	+3.131	+0.292	Soft	9

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2024

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	275	—
2	Jorge Martin	270	−5
3	Enea Bastianini	214	−61
4	Marc Marquez	192	−83
5	Maverick Viñales	139	−136
6	Brad Binder	128	−147

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/23

Laps led by the winner

Enea Bastianini

0.042 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P14 to P7.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Jorge Martin (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:48.264	—	+0.319	Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:48.304	+0.040	+0.221	Medium	19
Alex Rins	1:48.513	+0.249	+0.217	Medium	19
Jack Miller	1:48.536	+0.272	+0.105	Medium	21
Brad Binder	1:48.559	+0.295	+0.327	Medium	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:48.572	+0.308	+0.209	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:48.757	+0.493	+0.457	Medium	21
Luca Marini	1:48.760	+0.496	+0.308	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:48.767	+0.503	+0.292	Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:48.781	+0.517	+0.344	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.49%	+0.048	1	3	10.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.