Round 8 of 20 Aftermath

Dutch TT 2023

4.542 m · 26 laps · since 1949

23.06 – 25.06.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:37.640	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+1.223	20
3	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+1.925	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+1.528	13
5	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+1.934	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+12.437	10
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+14.174	9
8	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+14.616	8
9	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+29.335	7
10	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+33.736	6
11	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+35.084	5
12	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+39.622	4
13	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+42.504	3
14	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+45.609	2
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Iker Lecuona	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	20:09.174	12
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.294	9
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+1.872	7
4	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.245	6
5	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+4.582	5
6	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.036	4
7	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+5.876	3
8	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+10.102	2
9	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+10.525	1
10	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+10.556	0
11	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.191	0
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+11.473	0
13	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+15.439	0
14	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+17.754	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+19.508	0
16	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+19.664	0
17	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+19.916	0
18	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+20.583	0
19	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+24.269	0
20	Iker Lecuona	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+24.727	0
21	Jonas Folger	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+32.056	0
22	Stefan Bradl	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+35.372	0
DNF	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 27% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 27% · from P1	0.83 / 0.83	2.8 / 2.9
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 30%	Francesco Bagnaia · 17% · from P2	0.91 / 0.91	2.6 / 2.4
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 41%	Francesco Bagnaia · 19% · from P2	0.97 / 0.91	2.1 / 1.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:33.422	—	+0.457	Medium	23
Aleix Espargaro	1:33.498	+0.076	+0.209	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.509	+0.087	+0.221	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:33.538	+0.116	+0.327	Soft	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:33.567	+0.145	+0.553	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.859	+0.437	+0.356	Soft	19
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.936	+0.514	+0.359	Soft	17
Luca Marini	1:34.011	+0.589	+0.308	Medium	24
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:34.090	+0.668	+0.320	Soft	15
Enea Bastianini	1:34.114	+0.692	+0.319	Medium	4
Iker Lecuona	1:34.334	+0.912	+0.094	Soft	9
Raul Fernandez	1:34.352	+0.930	+0.667	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:34.407	+0.985	+0.193	Medium	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:34.470	+1.048	+0.437	Soft	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.540	+1.118	+0.512	Medium	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:34.727	+1.305	+0.781	Soft	21
Stefan Bradl	1:35.051	+1.629	+0.530	Soft	24
Jonas Folger	1:35.120	+1.698	—	Soft	24

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

24/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.223 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Augusto Fernandez, from P20 to P10.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Marco Bezzecchi (24 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/13

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

1.294 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P10 to P6.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Fabio Quartararo (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:08:46	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:22:24	Brad Binder	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Sprint	15:25:50		Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:04:11	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:29	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:06:33	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:00	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:25	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:21:27	Miguel Oliveira	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:21:29	Takaaki Nakagami	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:23:40	Takaaki Nakagami	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:31:15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:36:35	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:37:41	Alex Marquez	Long lap	Long lap penalty - COMPLETED
Race	14:44:29	Brad Binder	Position penalty	1 position penalty due to exceeding track limit on the last lap

Race: 6 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Brad Binder (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Jack Miller	12	7	+5
Miguel Oliveira	11	6	+5
Takaaki Nakagami	14	10	+4
Fabio Quartararo	4	12	−8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	19	−6
Johann Zarco	8	14	−6

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Augusto Fernandez	20→10	+5.0
Jorge Martin	10→5	+3.6
Takaaki Nakagami	14→8	+3.2
Marco Bezzecchi	1→2	+0.8
Raul Fernandez	16→12	+0.5
Luca Marini	3→7	−2.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	50%	+0.63%	−0.001	1	3	5.6
Soft	50%	+0.98%	−0.011	0	0	9.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.2 °C

Air

max 29.8 °C

39%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

12 km/h

Wind

gusts 26 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 23.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.246	—	20	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.914	—	6	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.560	+0.314	20	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Alex Marquez	01:32.614	+0.368	20	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.741	+0.88%	5	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:32.762	+0.516	16	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.610	+0.74%	7	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.804	+0.558	18	305.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Luca Marini	01:32.881	+0.635	19	311.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.981	+0.735	20	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Jorge Martin	01:33.067	+0.821	20	309.8	Medium / Soft	1:35.018	+1.18%	6	Medium
9	Jack Miller	01:33.087	+0.841	20	307.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.421	+1.175	19	306.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.759	+1.97%	5	Medium
11	Brad Binder	01:33.486	+1.240	19	309.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:33.498	+1.252	17	309.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.047	+1.21%	5	Medium
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.588	+1.342	18	303.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.629	+1.83%	7	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.633	+1.387	18	307.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.673	+1.427	18	306.0	Medium / Medium	1:34.578	+0.71%	6	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.893	+1.647	18	302.9	Soft / Medium	1:34.606	+0.74%	6	Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	01:33.902	+1.656	15	310.6	Soft / Medium	1:35.023	+1.18%	5	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	01:33.941	+1.695	18	306.0	Medium / Soft	1:35.493	+1.68%	7	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	01:33.989	+1.743	20	305.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.055	+1.809	20	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:36.002	+2.22%	4	Medium
21	Marc Marquez	01:34.111	+1.865	19	306.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Iker Lecuona	01:34.363	+2.117	21	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:36.748	+3.02%	6	Medium
23	Jonas Folger	01:34.741	+2.495	16	306.0	Medium / Soft	1:36.870	+3.15%	5	Medium

FP2 · 23.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.063	—	29	311.4	Hard / Soft	1:33.724	+0.14%	11	Soft
2	Jorge Martin	01:32.193	+0.130	27	315.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:32.218	+0.155	27	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.338	+0.79%	12	Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.263	+0.200	25	311.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.107	+0.54%	4	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.308	+0.245	26	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.705	+0.11%	11	Medium
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.341	+0.278	26	306.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.598	—	14	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.408	+0.345	23	307.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.064	+1.57%	5	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:32.449	+0.386	25	312.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.442	+0.90%	9	Soft
9	Luca Marini	01:32.469	+0.406	28	313.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.094	+0.53%	13	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	01:32.581	+0.518	27	313.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.106	+0.54%	14	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:32.669	+0.606	24	309.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:32.794	+0.731	26	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.442	+0.90%	7	Soft
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.801	+0.738	25	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.000	+1.50%	5	Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.935	+0.872	27	306.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.967	+1.46%	5	Soft
15	Enea Bastianini	01:32.955	+0.892	23	311.4	Hard / Soft	1:36.426	+3.02%	6	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.106	+1.043	20	302.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.441	+0.90%	4	Soft
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.180	+1.117	22	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.593	+1.06%	7	Soft
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.304	+1.241	24	306.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.446	+0.91%	5	Medium
19	Marc Marquez	01:33.485	+1.422	22	309.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.756	+1.24%	4	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.495	+1.432	25	308.3	Hard / Soft	1:35.226	+1.74%	10	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:33.501	+1.438	24	306.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.255	+1.77%	5	Medium
22	Iker Lecuona	01:33.720	+1.657	25	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:35.673	+2.22%	6	Medium
23	Jonas Folger	01:34.400	+2.337	24	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.018	+1.52%	4	Soft

Free practice · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.405	—	16	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.072	+0.32%	10	Soft
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.617	+0.212	14	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:32.773	—	4	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.678	+0.273	13	311.4	Hard / Soft	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.808	+0.403	14	304.4	Hard / Soft	1:33.628	+0.92%	7	Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.915	+0.510	12	306.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Luca Marini	01:32.947	+0.542	15	309.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.063	+0.31%	9	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:32.977	+0.572	15	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.257	+0.52%	6	Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.994	+0.589	16	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.798	+1.11%	5	Soft
9	Jorge Martin	01:33.044	+0.639	15	309.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Enea Bastianini	01:33.065	+0.660	14	313.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.073	+0.668	15	306.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:33.226	+0.821	18	308.3	Medium / Soft	1:33.820	+1.13%	12	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.238	+0.833	13	306.0	Soft / Soft	1:34.953	+2.35%	6	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:33.251	+0.846	16	312.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.773	+1.08%	6	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:33.358	+0.953	14	309.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Marc Marquez	01:33.370	+0.965	14	305.2	Soft / Soft	1:34.914	+2.31%	5	Soft
17	Alex Marquez	01:33.404	+0.999	14	308.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.682	+1.277	15	304.4	Hard / Soft	1:34.073	+1.40%	7	Soft
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.726	+1.321	14	309.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:33.828	+1.423	13	307.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Jonas Folger	01:34.030	+1.625	14	304.4	Hard / Soft	1:34.642	+2.02%	6	Soft
22	Iker Lecuona	01:34.094	+1.689	16	302.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Stefan Bradl	01:34.177	+1.772	11	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.538	+1.90%	4	Soft

Q1 · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:31.993	—	7	304.4	— / —
2	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.087	+0.094	9	307.5	— / —
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.185	+0.192	8	305.2	Soft / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.497	+0.504	8	302.2	Soft / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.530	+0.537	6	305.2	Hard / Soft
6	Raul Fernandez	01:32.671	+0.678	7	309.0	Soft / Soft
7	Marc Marquez	01:32.672	+0.679	5	305.2	— / —
8	Enea Bastianini	01:32.844	+0.851	8	310.6	— / —
9	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.008	+1.015	7	311.4	— / —
10	Stefan Bradl	01:33.040	+1.047	7	306.7	Soft / Soft
11	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.082	+1.089	8	306.0	Soft / Soft
12	Iker Lecuona	01:33.088	+1.095	8	303.7	Medium / Soft
13	Jonas Folger	01:33.300	+1.307	8	303.7	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.472	—	9	310.6	Hard / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.533	+0.061	8	310.6	Hard / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:31.630	+0.158	6	313.0	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.671	+0.199	8	305.2	Medium / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:31.704	+0.232	8	309.0	Hard / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.812	+0.340	8	306.0	Hard / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:31.837	+0.365	8	310.6	Soft / Soft
8	Johann Zarco	01:31.881	+0.409	8	309.8	Soft / Soft
9	Alex Marquez	01:31.898	+0.426	8	306.7	Soft / Soft
10	Jorge Martin	01:32.170	+0.698	6	306.7	Soft / Soft
11	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.174	+0.702	8	306.7	Medium / Soft
12	Jack Miller	01:32.715	+1.243	8	308.3	Soft / Soft

Sprint · 24.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	20:09.174	12	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.473	—	11	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+1.294	9	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.660	+0.20%	11	Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	+1.872	7	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.771	+0.32%	10	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	+2.245	6	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.608	+0.15%	11	Soft
5	Brad Binder	+4.582	5	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.673	+0.22%	9	Soft
6	Jorge Martin	+5.036	4	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.819	+0.37%	10	Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	+5.876	3	13	Hard / Soft	1:32.816	+0.37%	10	Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	+10.102	2	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.164	+0.75%	10	Soft
9	Alex Marquez	+10.525	1	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.206	+0.79%	11	Soft
10	Luca Marini	+10.556	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.339	+0.94%	11	Soft
11	Jack Miller	+11.191	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.302	+0.90%	11	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+11.473	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.322	+0.92%	11	Soft
13	Johann Zarco	+15.439	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.487	+1.10%	11	Soft
14	Augusto Fernandez	+17.754	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.582	+1.20%	11	Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	+19.508	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.756	+1.39%	10	Soft
16	Lorenzo Savadori	+19.664	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.843	+1.48%	11	Soft
17	Marc Marquez	+19.916	0	13	Soft / Soft	1:33.982	+1.63%	11	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	+20.583	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:33.718	+1.35%	11	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	+24.269	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:34.099	+1.76%	11	Soft
20	Iker Lecuona	+24.727	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:34.292	+1.97%	11	Soft
21	Jonas Folger	+32.056	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:34.905	+2.63%	10	Soft
22	Stefan Bradl	+35.372	0	13	Hard / Soft	1:34.241	+1.91%	11	Soft
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	3	Hard / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.422	—	7	304.4	Medium / Medium	1:32.831	+0.08%	5	Medium
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.555	+0.133	7	305.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.571	+0.149	7	308.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.758	—	5	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:32.590	+0.168	7	306.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.644	+0.222	7	309.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.061	+0.33%	5	Medium
6	Johann Zarco	01:32.854	+0.432	7	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.362	+0.65%	5	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.945	+0.523	7	304.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Luca Marini	01:33.008	+0.586	7	309.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.291	+0.58%	5	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:33.132	+0.710	7	306.7	Hard / Medium	1:33.660	+0.97%	5	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.148	+0.726	6	306.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Alex Marquez	01:33.216	+0.794	7	307.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:33.253	+0.831	6	303.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
13	Augusto Fernandez	01:33.254	+0.832	7	305.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.271	+0.849	7	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.341	+0.63%	5	Medium
15	Brad Binder	01:33.272	+0.850	7	305.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:33.493	+1.071	6	310.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
17	Jack Miller	01:33.562	+1.140	7	306.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Iker Lecuona	01:33.762	+1.340	7	302.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.881	+1.21%	5	Soft
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.810	+1.388	6	306.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
20	Jonas Folger	01:34.478	+2.056	6	302.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Stefan Bradl	01:34.513	+2.091	6	302.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.819	+2.397	6	304.4	Hard / Medium	—			—

Race · 25.06

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:37.640	25	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.509	+0.09%	23	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+1.223	20	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.567	+0.16%	22	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	+1.925	16	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.498	+0.08%	24	Medium
4	Brad Binder	+1.528	13	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.538	+0.12%	23	Soft
5	Jorge Martin	+1.934	11	26	Hard / Medium	1:33.422	—	23	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+12.437	10	26	Hard / Soft	1:33.859	+0.47%	19	Soft
7	Luca Marini	+14.174	9	26	Hard / Medium	1:34.011	+0.63%	24	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	+14.616	8	26	Medium / Soft	1:33.936	+0.55%	17	Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	+29.335	7	26	Hard / Medium	1:34.540	+1.20%	23	Medium
10	Augusto Fernandez	+33.736	6	26	Hard / Soft	1:34.470	+1.12%	21	Soft
11	Lorenzo Savadori	+35.084	5	26	Hard / Soft	1:34.727	+1.40%	21	Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	+39.622	4	26	Hard / Medium	1:34.352	+1.00%	19	Medium
13	Stefan Bradl	+42.504	3	26	Hard / Soft	1:35.051	+1.74%	24	Soft
14	Jonas Folger	+45.609	2	26	Medium / Soft	1:35.120	+1.82%	24	Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	6	Hard / Medium	1:34.114	+0.74%	4	Medium
Retired	Fabio Di Giannantonio		0	18	Hard / Soft	1:34.090	+0.72%	15	Soft
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	2	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Iker Lecuona		0	14	Hard / Soft	1:34.334	+0.98%	9	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	1	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	2	Hard / Soft	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	3	Hard / Medium	—			—
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:34.407	+1.05%	9	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.632*	—	+0.275	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.418	+0.786	+0.221	Medium	5
Maverick Viñales	1:33.451*	+0.819	+0.292	Medium	3
Iker Lecuona	1:35.133*	+2.501	+0.094	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21

Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Marc Marquez	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	27%	62%	76%	85%	14%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	2	21%	57%	78%	91%	7%	2
Luca Marini	3	12%	44%	67%	84%	14%	10
Fabio Quartararo	4	10%	35%	59%	83%	14%	3
Brad Binder	5	7%	27%	56%	88%	7%	5
Aleix Espargaro	6	5%	17%	38%	71%	22%	4
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	14%	32%	76%	14%	7
Johann Zarco	8	3%	11%	28%	78%	7%	13
Alex Marquez	9	2%	6%	13%	55%	30%	9
Jorge Martin	10	2%	5%	12%	64%	7%	6
Miguel Oliveira	11	2%	5%	10%	56%	8%	19
Jack Miller	12	2%	3%	6%	43%	14%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	1%	4%	6%	36%	7%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	14	1%	3%	4%	26%	14%	12
Franco Morbidelli	15	1%	2%	3%	20%	7%	15
Raul Fernandez	16	1%	2%	3%	15%	7%	18
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	2%	8%	21%	8
Lorenzo Savadori	18	0%	1%	2%	7%	11%	16
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	1%	2%	5%	11%	22
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	1%	2%	3%	22%	14
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	1%	3%	12%	20
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	1%	3%	26%	21
Marc Marquez	23	0%	0%	1%	3%	9%	17

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	41%	70%	78%	84%	16%	2
Francesco Bagnaia	2	19%	49%	63%	71%	28%	1
Luca Marini	3	3%	16%	41%	84%	8%	7
Fabio Quartararo	4	11%	41%	66%	85%	13%	—
Brad Binder	5	11%	42%	67%	85%	13%	4
Aleix Espargaro	6	11%	40%	61%	74%	24%	3
Maverick Viñales	7	4%	22%	49%	82%	13%	—
Johann Zarco	8	0%	3%	13%	60%	18%	—
Alex Marquez	9	1%	6%	19%	64%	25%	6
Jorge Martin	10	1%	8%	22%	64%	26%	5
Miguel Oliveira	11	0%	0%	1%	20%	19%	—
Jack Miller	12	0%	1%	7%	50%	25%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	13	0%	0%	2%	35%	19%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	1%	6%	50%	16%	8
Franco Morbidelli	15	0%	0%	0%	20%	17%	9
Raul Fernandez	16	0%	0%	0%	12%	17%	12
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	4%	43%	18%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	25%	11
Stefan Bradl	19	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	13
Augusto Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	9%	9%	10
Iker Lecuona	21	0%	0%	0%	1%	33%	—
Jonas Folger	22	0%	0%	0%	0%	13%	14
Marc Marquez	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	17%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Aleix Espargaro	20% → 40%	+20	5% → 11%
Brad Binder	30% → 42%	+12	8% → 11%
Marco Bezzecchi	60% → 70%	+9	30% → 41%
Dropping
Luca Marini	49% → 16%	−33	17% → 3%
Johann Zarco	12% → 3%	−9	2% → 0%
Miguel Oliveira	4% → 0%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.473	—	+0.553	Soft	11
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.608	+0.135	+0.209	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.660	+0.187	+0.221	Soft	11
Brad Binder	1:32.673	+0.200	+0.327	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.771	+0.298	+0.275	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:32.816	+0.343	+0.292	Soft	10
Jorge Martin	1:32.819	+0.346	+0.457	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:33.164	+0.691	+0.319	Soft	10
Alex Marquez	1:33.206	+0.733	+0.356	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:33.302	+0.829	+0.105	Soft	11
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.322	+0.849	+0.359	Soft	11
Luca Marini	1:33.339	+0.866	+0.308	Soft	11
Johann Zarco	1:33.487	+1.014	+0.344	Soft	11
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.582	+1.109	+0.437	Soft	11
Raul Fernandez	1:33.718	+1.245	+0.667	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:33.756	+1.283	+0.512	Soft	10
Lorenzo Savadori	1:33.843	+1.370	+0.781	Soft	11
Marc Marquez	1:33.982	+1.509	+0.210	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:34.099	+1.626	+0.193	Soft	11
Stefan Bradl	1:34.241	+1.768	+0.530	Soft	11
Iker Lecuona	1:34.292	+1.819	+0.094	Soft	11
Jonas Folger	1:34.905	+2.432	—	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,547 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Maverick Viñales +0.39%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%
S4	Ai Ogura +0.13%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Joan Mir	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ai Ogura +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.42%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.07%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.17%
S4	Ai Ogura	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Raul Fernandez +0.54%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.37%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Pedro Acosta +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Luca Marini +0.44%	Fabio Quartararo +0.46%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.79%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.06%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Miguel Oliveira +0.26%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.52%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.04%	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.28%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.16%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.28%	Aleix Espargaro +0.35%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.30%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.12%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.41%	Pol Espargaro +0.68%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.24%	Johann Zarco +0.28%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.02%	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.55%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Marc Marquez +0.57%	Andrea Iannone +0.81%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.54%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.43%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.27%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.33%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.51%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.61%
S3	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Alex Rins +0.10%	Johann Zarco +0.30%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Maverick Viñales +0.31%	Danilo Petrucci +0.73%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

86/100

Position index

38%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.84

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 67% of the time (between 30% and 90%; 6 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	160	—
2	Jorge Martin	144	−16
3	Marco Bezzecchi	126	−34
4	Johann Zarco	109	−51
5	Brad Binder	96	−64
6	Luca Marini	89	−71

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.444 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P11 to P3.

Longest battle: Luca Marini vs Stefan Bradl (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.818	—	+0.209	Hard	23
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.959	+0.141	+0.553	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:32.964	+0.146	+0.105	Soft	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:33.006	+0.188	+0.221	Hard	24
Maverick Viñales	1:33.022	+0.204	+0.292	Hard	21
Brad Binder	1:33.044	+0.226	+0.327	Hard	23
Jorge Martin	1:33.084	+0.266	+0.457	Hard	20
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.195	+0.377	+0.359	Soft	19
Joan Mir	1:33.219	+0.401	+0.562	Hard	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.244	+0.426	+0.193	Hard	23

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Ai OguraAprilia
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Maverick ViñalesYamaha
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 20% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	6/22	27%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	4/21	19%
2023	8/22	36%
2022	4/24	17%
2021	4/22	18%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	67%	+0.74%	+0.004	1	2	9.9
Soft	33%	+0.52%	+0.018	0	1	11.4

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.