Round 9 of 20 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2023

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

04.08 – 06.08.2023

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	40:40.367	25
2	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.215	20
3	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+0.680	16
4	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+0.750	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+2.101	11
6	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+7.903	10
7	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+9.099	9
8	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.298	8
9	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+9.958	7
10	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+19.947	6
11	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+20.296	5
12	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+66.120	4
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+87.605	3
14	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+88.913	2
15	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+89.075	1
16	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+98.573	0
17	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+109.674	0
DNF	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Alex Marquez	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	21:52.317	12
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+0.366	9
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.374	7
4	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+5.671	6
5	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+6.068	5
6	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Prima Pramac Racing	+7.294	4
7	Jack Miller	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+9.415	3
8	Augusto Fernandez	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+9.850	2
9	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+10.435	1
10	Miguel Oliveira	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+11.247	0
11	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+17.365	0
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+20.063	0
13	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+24.352	0
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+25.527	0
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+27.191	0
16	Pol Espargaro	KTM	GASGAS Factory Racing Tech3	+27.693	0
17	Joan Mir	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+29.062	0
18	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+29.326	0
19	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	CryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team	+29.627	0
20	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+29.909	0
21	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+30.326	0
22	Iker Lecuona	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+47.674	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 28%	Alex Marquez · 11% · from P3	0.77 / 0.77	3.7 / 3.6
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 29%	Aleix Espargaro · 1% · from P12	0.55 / 0.55	3.3 / 3.3
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 43%	Aleix Espargaro · 1% · from P12	0.61 / 0.55	2.7 / 3.3

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Brad Binder	2:01.022	—	+0.327	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	2:01.033	+0.011	+0.292	Medium	18
Francesco Bagnaia	2:01.084	+0.062	+0.221	Medium	18
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.216	+0.194	+0.209	Medium	18
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:01.362	+0.340	+0.320	Medium	15
Jorge Martin	2:01.527	+0.505	+0.457	Medium	18
Enea Bastianini	2:01.533	+0.511	+0.319	Soft	13
Fabio Quartararo	2:01.539	+0.517	+0.275	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	2:01.634	+0.612	+0.210	Medium	11
Miguel Oliveira	2:01.678	+0.656	+0.193	Medium	18
Raul Fernandez	2:01.914	+0.892	+0.667	Medium	17
Jack Miller	2:01.978	+0.956	+0.105	Medium	18
Augusto Fernandez	2:02.058	+1.036	+0.437	Medium	18
Luca Marini	2:02.102	+1.080	+0.308	Medium	18
Johann Zarco	2:02.152	+1.130	+0.344	Soft	16
Franco Morbidelli	2:02.160	+1.138	+0.512	Medium	15
Takaaki Nakagami	2:02.490	+1.468	+0.359	Medium	14
Iker Lecuona	2:02.611	+1.589	+0.094	Medium	14
Pol Espargaro	2:03.034	+2.012	+0.406	Medium	17

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

118

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/20

Laps led by the winner

Aleix Espargaro

0.215 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P16 to P4.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Maverick Viñales (11 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

9/10

Laps led by the winner

Alex Marquez

0.366 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Aleix Espargaro, from P12 to P5.

Longest battle: Joan Mir vs Marc Marquez (6 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:08:32	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:13:22	Alex Marquez	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	13:14:48	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:28:46		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	13:33:06	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:33:28	Enea Bastianini	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:38:36	Enea Bastianini	Retired	retired

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Fabio Quartararo	22	15	+7
Aleix Espargaro	12	6	+6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	14	+4
Jorge Martin	7	19	−12
Augusto Fernandez	5	16	−11
Pol Espargaro	15	20	−5

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Aleix Espargaro	12→1	+8.9
Miguel Oliveira	16→4	+8.5
Brad Binder	10→3	+5.6
Jack Miller	2→8	−4.5
Franco Morbidelli	11→14	−4.7
Augusto Fernandez	5→11	−5.6

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.76%	+0.193	1	3	9.0
Soft	9%	+0.93%	+0.139	0	0	9.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

14.8 °C

Air

max 15.7 °C

74%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

16 km/h

Wind

gusts 39 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	02:00.295	—	16	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Luca Marini	02:00.331	+0.036	17	335.4	Soft / Medium	2:01.959	+0.39%	12	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	02:00.370	+0.075	16	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	02:00.467	+0.172	17	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.676	+0.98%	6	Medium
5	Jack Miller	02:00.665	+0.370	16	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.942	+2.02%	6	Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.677	+0.382	15	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.486	—	11	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.856	+0.561	14	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:05.686	+3.46%	7	Medium
8	Raul Fernandez	02:00.936	+0.641	16	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.463	+1.63%	5	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	02:01.098	+0.803	18	331.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
10	Fabio Quartararo	02:01.241	+0.946	17	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.038	+0.45%	13	Medium
11	Alex Marquez	02:01.259	+0.964	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.347	+0.71%	11	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	02:01.417	+1.122	17	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:03.701	+1.82%	13	Medium
13	Brad Binder	02:01.451	+1.156	19	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.080	+0.49%	13	Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	02:01.520	+1.225	15	330.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	02:01.586	+1.291	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:01.914	+1.619	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.678	+0.98%	12	Medium
17	Miguel Oliveira	02:02.174	+1.879	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.225	+1.43%	6	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	02:02.553	+2.258	14	323.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	02:02.560	+2.265	17	325.3	Soft / Soft	2:03.892	+1.98%	11	Soft
20	Joan Mir	02:02.748	+2.453	17	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.364	+1.55%	9	Medium
21	Iker Lecuona	02:02.876	+2.581	17	324.3	Soft / Medium	2:04.008	+2.08%	5	Medium
22	Pol Espargaro	02:03.797	+3.502	16	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—

Practice · 04.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.183	—	19	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Jorge Martin	01:58.854	+0.671	21	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Brad Binder	01:58.898	+0.715	20	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:00.567	—	5	Soft
4	Maverick Viñales	01:58.904	+0.721	14	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Johann Zarco	01:58.943	+0.760	18	330.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.973	+0.790	19	334.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.018	+0.835	19	334.3	Medium / Soft	2:01.218	+0.54%	6	Medium
8	Jack Miller	01:59.201	+1.018	21	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.597	+0.85%	5	Medium
9	Luca Marini	01:59.246	+1.063	19	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:59.298	+1.115	21	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.148	+0.48%	6	Medium
11	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.425	+1.242	21	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.292	+0.60%	5	Soft
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.454	+1.271	20	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.373	+0.67%	7	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:59.455	+1.272	20	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:03.260	+2.23%	6	Soft
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.665	+1.482	21	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Enea Bastianini	01:59.693	+1.510	21	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.845	+1.06%	5	Medium
16	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.714	+1.531	21	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.184	+0.51%	5	Soft
17	Raul Fernandez	01:59.726	+1.543	19	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Joan Mir	02:00.357	+2.174	19	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
19	Augusto Fernandez	02:00.542	+2.359	22	326.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.442	+1.56%	6	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.623	+2.440	20	326.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.900	+1.11%	5	Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	02:00.809	+2.626	17	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Iker Lecuona	02:01.122	+2.939	22	325.3	Soft / Soft	2:02.757	+1.82%	10	Soft

FP2 · 05.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:18.076	—	7	301.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	02:18.948	+0.872	10	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:19.831	—	5	Wet-Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	02:18.960	+0.884	6	289.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	02:19.051	+0.975	8	281.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Marco Bezzecchi	02:19.095	+1.019	10	299.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.626	+1.28%	5	Wet-Soft
6	Alex Marquez	02:19.422	+1.346	10	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	02:19.508	+1.432	10	284.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
8	Aleix Espargaro	02:19.754	+1.678	8	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	02:19.791	+1.715	8	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	02:19.893	+1.817	12	286.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:21.788	+1.40%	8	Wet-Soft
11	Jorge Martin	02:20.477	+2.401	10	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
12	Maverick Viñales	02:21.313	+3.237	8	279.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
13	Enea Bastianini	02:21.455	+3.379	9	292.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
14	Joan Mir	02:21.579	+3.503	8	289.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
15	Marc Marquez	02:21.803	+3.727	8	285.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
16	Fabio Quartararo	02:21.980	+3.904	11	293.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	2:22.497	+1.91%	5	Wet-Soft
17	Iker Lecuona	02:22.204	+4.128	8	290.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
18	Augusto Fernandez	02:24.166	+6.090	7	281.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
19	Franco Morbidelli	02:24.471	+6.395	8	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Pol Espargaro	02:25.094	+7.018	8	272.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Raul Fernandez	02:26.057	+7.981	6	286.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
22	Takaaki Nakagami	02:26.353	+8.277	9	284.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q1 · 05.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	02:15.884	—	6	300.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
2	Augusto Fernandez	02:16.885	+1.001	7	291.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
3	Enea Bastianini	02:16.972	+1.088	6	301.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
4	Marc Marquez	02:17.343	+1.459	7	289.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	02:18.118	+2.234	7	287.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	02:18.264	+2.380	6	297.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
7	Iker Lecuona	02:18.833	+2.949	7	294.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:19.182	+3.298	5	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
9	Joan Mir	02:19.367	+3.483	7	288.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	02:21.128	+5.244	6	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	02:22.341	+6.457	6	288.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
12	Fabio Quartararo	02:22.931	+7.047	5	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft

Q2 · 05.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	02:15.359	—	5	303.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	02:15.629	+0.270	7	284.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
3	Alex Marquez	02:15.771	+0.412	6	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	02:16.095	+0.736	4	305.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
5	Augusto Fernandez	02:16.101	+0.742	7	281.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
6	Luca Marini	02:16.152	+0.793	5	292.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
7	Jorge Martin	02:16.272	+0.913	6	304.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
8	Maverick Viñales	02:16.317	+0.958	7	289.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
9	Johann Zarco	02:16.661	+1.302	5	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
10	Brad Binder	02:16.677	+1.318	7	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	02:16.885	+1.526	6	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:17.406	+2.047	7	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft

Sprint · 05.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Alex Marquez	21:52.317	12	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:10.767	—	8	Wet-Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.366	9	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:10.822	+0.04%	8	Wet-Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	+3.374	7	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.104	+0.26%	8	Wet-Medium
4	Johann Zarco	+5.671	6	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.294	+0.40%	8	Wet-Medium
5	Aleix Espargaro	+6.068	5	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.357	+0.45%	8	Wet-Medium
6	Jorge Martin	+7.294	4	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.843	+0.82%	8	Wet-Medium
7	Jack Miller	+9.415	3	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.976	+0.93%	8	Wet-Medium
8	Augusto Fernandez	+9.850	2	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.801	+0.79%	8	Wet-Medium
9	Brad Binder	+10.435	1	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.842	+0.82%	8	Wet-Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	+11.247	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:11.716	+0.73%	8	Wet-Medium
11	Luca Marini	+17.365	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:12.516	+1.34%	8	Wet-Medium
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+20.063	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:12.576	+1.38%	8	Wet-Medium
13	Enea Bastianini	+24.352	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.255	+1.90%	8	Wet-Medium
14	Francesco Bagnaia	+25.527	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.051	+1.75%	8	Wet-Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	+27.191	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.480	+2.08%	8	Wet-Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	+27.693	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.847	+2.36%	7	Wet-Medium
17	Joan Mir	+29.062	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.728	+2.26%	8	Wet-Medium
18	Marc Marquez	+29.326	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:14.076	+2.53%	8	Wet-Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	+29.627	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.428	+2.04%	8	Wet-Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	+29.909	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.634	+2.19%	8	Wet-Medium
21	Fabio Quartararo	+30.326	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:13.640	+2.20%	8	Wet-Medium
22	Iker Lecuona	+47.674	0	10	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	2:15.408	+3.55%	8	Wet-Medium

Warm Up · 06.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	02:10.207	—	5	321.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
2	Alex Marquez	02:10.764	+0.557	5	307.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:10.835	+0.628	5	315.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	02:10.838	+0.631	3	306.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	02:10.927	+0.720	5	307.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
6	Brad Binder	02:10.940	+0.733	5	305.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
7	Raul Fernandez	02:10.994	+0.787	5	302.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
8	Augusto Fernandez	02:11.153	+0.946	5	300.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
9	Johann Zarco	02:11.170	+0.963	5	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
10	Marc Marquez	02:11.305	+1.098	5	313.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
11	Jack Miller	02:11.428	+1.221	5	305.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
12	Jorge Martin	02:11.499	+1.292	5	310.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	02:12.039	+1.832	5	310.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium
14	Luca Marini	02:12.499	+2.292	5	304.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
15	Joan Mir	02:13.033	+2.826	5	299.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	02:13.330	+3.123	5	303.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
17	Enea Bastianini	02:13.363	+3.156	5	309.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
18	Pol Espargaro	02:13.544	+3.337	5	298.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
19	Fabio Quartararo	02:13.881	+3.674	4	292.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium
20	Iker Lecuona	02:14.575	+4.368	5	301.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft
21	Aleix Espargaro	02:15.960	+5.753	4	307.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft
Retired	Maverick Viñales		—	0	0.0	— / —

Race · 06.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	40:40.367	25	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.216	+0.16%	18	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	+0.215	20	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.084	+0.05%	18	Medium
3	Brad Binder	+0.680	16	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.022	—	18	Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	+0.750	13	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.678	+0.54%	18	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	+2.101	11	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.033	+0.01%	18	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	+7.903	10	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.527	+0.42%	18	Medium
7	Luca Marini	+9.099	9	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.102	+0.89%	18	Medium
8	Jack Miller	+9.298	8	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.978	+0.79%	18	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+9.958	7	20	Soft / Soft	2:02.152	+0.93%	16	Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	+19.947	6	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.914	+0.74%	17	Medium
11	Augusto Fernandez	+20.296	5	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.058	+0.86%	18	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	+66.120	4	20	Soft / Medium	2:03.034	+1.66%	17	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+87.605	3	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.362	+0.28%	15	Medium
14	Franco Morbidelli	+88.913	2	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.160	+0.94%	15	Medium
15	Fabio Quartararo	+89.075	1	20	Soft / Medium	2:01.539	+0.43%	16	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	+98.573	0	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.490	+1.21%	14	Medium
17	Iker Lecuona	+109.674	0	20	Soft / Medium	2:02.611	+1.31%	14	Medium
Retired	Alex Marquez		0	5	Soft / Medium	—			—
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	16	Soft / Soft	2:01.533	+0.42%	13	Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	2	Soft / Medium	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	14	Soft / Medium	2:01.634	+0.51%	11	Medium
Retired	Marco Bezzecchi		0	5	Soft / Medium	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.529*	—	+0.221	Medium	3
Jorge Martin	2:00.988*	+0.459	+0.457	Medium	3
Jack Miller	2:01.225	+0.696	+0.105	Medium	5
Takaaki Nakagami	2:01.686*	+1.157	+0.359	Medium	4
Augusto Fernandez	2:02.620*	+2.091	+0.437	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Miguel Oliveira	57%	6
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	41%	8
3	Fabio Quartararo	31%	12
4	Enea Bastianini	20%	3
5	Marc Marquez	20%	4
6	Franco Morbidelli	9%	1 ✓
7	Joan Mir	8%	9
8	Augusto Fernandez	4%	2 ✓
9	Raul Fernandez	2%	10
10	Iker Lecuona	3%	7
11	Pol Espargaro	4%	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	1%	11

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Francesco Bagnaia	34%	64%	89%	4
2	Aleix Espargaro	25%	51%	81%	12
3	Marco Bezzecchi	14%	48%	78%	1
4	Jack Miller	4%	32%	67%	2
5	Jorge Martin	4%	27%	53%	7
6	Brad Binder	7%	23%	55%	10
7	Johann Zarco	1%	11%	39%	9
8	Alex Marquez	3%	13%	38%	3
9	Luca Marini	3%	8%	27%	6
10	Maverick Viñales	2%	8%	26%	8
11	Augusto Fernandez	3%	11%	30%	5
12	Franco Morbidelli	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	28%	61%	76%	85%	13%	2
Jack Miller	2	19%	53%	72%	85%	13%	7
Alex Marquez	3	11%	37%	55%	70%	27%	1
Francesco Bagnaia	4	11%	42%	67%	91%	6%	14
Augusto Fernandez	5	6%	25%	48%	75%	20%	8
Luca Marini	6	5%	20%	42%	79%	13%	11
Jorge Martin	7	4%	17%	38%	83%	6%	6
Maverick Viñales	8	3%	10%	26%	72%	13%	3
Johann Zarco	9	3%	8%	20%	73%	6%	4
Brad Binder	10	2%	6%	14%	65%	6%	9
Franco Morbidelli	11	2%	5%	11%	56%	6%	15
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	3%	7%	39%	20%	5
Enea Bastianini	13	1%	3%	5%	32%	18%	13
Marc Marquez	14	1%	2%	4%	29%	7%	18
Pol Espargaro	15	1%	2%	3%	20%	13%	16
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	2%	3%	15%	6%	10
Iker Lecuona	17	0%	2%	3%	11%	10%	22
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	0%	1%	2%	6%	13%	12
Joan Mir	19	0%	1%	1%	4%	34%	17
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	1%	1%	4%	6%	19
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	1%	4%	13%	20
Fabio Quartararo	22	0%	0%	1%	3%	13%	21

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	43%	69%	77%	83%	15%	—
Jack Miller	2	5%	26%	45%	71%	25%	8
Alex Marquez	3	30%	59%	67%	75%	25%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	4	1%	10%	24%	62%	27%	2
Augusto Fernandez	5	4%	22%	45%	84%	8%	11
Luca Marini	6	1%	13%	32%	80%	8%	7
Jorge Martin	7	2%	15%	33%	67%	25%	6
Maverick Viñales	8	8%	38%	60%	83%	13%	5
Johann Zarco	9	4%	23%	46%	76%	19%	9
Brad Binder	10	1%	12%	30%	75%	12%	3
Franco Morbidelli	11	0%	0%	3%	40%	17%	14
Aleix Espargaro	12	1%	10%	26%	66%	24%	1
Enea Bastianini	13	0%	0%	2%	33%	20%	—
Marc Marquez	14	0%	0%	0%	8%	17%	—
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	0%	0%	8%	20%	12
Miguel Oliveira	16	0%	2%	10%	52%	20%	4
Iker Lecuona	17	0%	0%	0%	2%	35%	17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18	0%	0%	0%	21%	21%	13
Joan Mir	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	24%	—
Raul Fernandez	20	0%	0%	0%	6%	17%	10
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	16%	16
Fabio Quartararo	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	14%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Maverick Viñales	15% → 38%	+23	3% → 8%
Alex Marquez	40% → 59%	+19	13% → 30%
Johann Zarco	9% → 23%	+14	2% → 4%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	34% → 10%	−23	10% → 1%
Jack Miller	46% → 26%	−20	20% → 5%
Luca Marini	26% → 13%	−13	7% → 1%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	2:10.767	—	+0.356	Wet-Medium	8
Marco Bezzecchi	2:10.822	+0.055	+0.553	Wet-Medium	8
Maverick Viñales	2:11.104	+0.337	+0.292	Wet-Medium	8
Johann Zarco	2:11.294	+0.527	+0.344	Wet-Medium	8
Aleix Espargaro	2:11.357	+0.590	+0.209	Wet-Medium	8
Miguel Oliveira	2:11.716	+0.949	+0.193	Wet-Medium	8
Augusto Fernandez	2:11.801	+1.034	+0.437	Wet-Medium	8
Brad Binder	2:11.842	+1.075	+0.327	Wet-Medium	8
Jorge Martin	2:11.843	+1.076	+0.457	Wet-Medium	8
Jack Miller	2:11.976	+1.209	+0.105	Wet-Medium	8
Luca Marini	2:12.516	+1.749	+0.308	Wet-Medium	8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:12.576	+1.809	+0.320	Wet-Medium	8
Francesco Bagnaia	2:13.051	+2.284	+0.221	Wet-Medium	8
Enea Bastianini	2:13.255	+2.488	+0.319	Wet-Medium	8
Raul Fernandez	2:13.428	+2.661	+0.667	Wet-Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	2:13.480	+2.713	+0.512	Wet-Medium	8
Takaaki Nakagami	2:13.634	+2.867	+0.359	Wet-Medium	8
Fabio Quartararo	2:13.640	+2.873	+0.275	Wet-Medium	8
Joan Mir	2:13.728	+2.961	+0.562	Wet-Medium	8
Pol Espargaro	2:13.847	+3.080	+0.406	Wet-Medium	7
Marc Marquez	2:14.076	+3.309	+0.210	Wet-Medium	8
Iker Lecuona	2:15.408	+4.641	+0.094	Wet-Medium	8

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	194	—
2	Jorge Martin	159	−35
3	Marco Bezzecchi	158	−36
4	Brad Binder	114	−80
5	Johann Zarco	109	−85
6	Luca Marini	98	−96

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

9/20

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.426 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P24 to P16.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Joan Mir (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2022 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	2:00.006	—	+0.344	Hard	4
Joan Mir	2:00.166	+0.160	+0.562	Hard	12
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.208	+0.202	+0.221	Hard	14
Maverick Viñales	2:00.264	+0.258	+0.292	Hard	18
Enea Bastianini	2:00.311	+0.305	+0.319	Hard	18
Brad Binder	2:00.316	+0.310	+0.327	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	2:00.320	+0.314	+0.457	Hard	18
Jack Miller	2:00.393	+0.387	+0.105	Hard	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.410	+0.404	+0.209	Hard	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:00.417	+0.411	+0.193	Hard	17

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	63%	+0.34%	+0.056	1	3	8.9
Medium	38%	+0.74%	+0.079	0	0	15.2

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.