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Round 7 of 20 Aftermath

German Grand Prix 2023

Sachsenring Germany

3.671 m · 30 laps · since 1998
16.06 – 18.06.2023
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing40:52.44925
2Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+0.06420
3Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+7.01316
4Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+8.43013
5Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+11.67911
6Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+11.90410
7Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+14.0409
8Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+14.8598
9Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+17.0617
10Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+19.6486
11Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+19.9975
12Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+22.9494
13Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+25.1173
14Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+25.3272
15Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+25.5031
16Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+28.5430
17Jonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+48.9620
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Jorge MartinDucatiPrima Pramac Racing20:21.87112
2Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+2.4689
3Jack MillerKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+3.2877
4Luca MariniDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+5.4876
5Johann ZarcoDucatiPrima Pramac Racing+5.5385
6Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+6.2894
7Marco BezzecchiDucatiMooney VR46 Racing Team+6.9563
8Alex MarquezDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+9.2612
9Aleix EspargaroApriliaAprilia Racing+9.6911
10Enea BastianiniDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+9.7150
11Marc MarquezHondaRepsol Honda Team+10.8280
12Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiGresini Racing MotoGP+10.9050
13Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+11.3660
14Augusto FernandezKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3+12.5930
15Franco MorbidelliYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP+12.9050
16Miguel OliveiraApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+13.8370
17Takaaki NakagamiHondaLCR Honda IDEMITSU+14.5050
18Raul FernandezApriliaCryptoDATA RNF MotoGP Team+28.9590
DNFJonas FolgerKTMGASGAS Factory Racing Tech3Retired0
DNFMaverick ViñalesApriliaAprilia RacingRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintFrancesco Bagnaia · 32%Jorge Martin · 5% · from P60.90 / 0.902.1 / 2.1
Race (after the grid)Francesco Bagnaia · 25%Jorge Martin · 5% · from P60.83 / 0.832.0 / 2.0
Race (after the sprint)Francesco Bagnaia · 30%Jorge Martin · 14% · from P60.85 / 0.831.9 / 2.9

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:21.602—+0.221Medium25
Johann Zarco1:21.740+0.138+0.344Medium12
Brad Binder1:21.747+0.145+0.327Medium16
Jack Miller1:21.892+0.290+0.105Medium14
Enea Bastianini1:22.049+0.447+0.319Medium28
Luca Marini1:22.062+0.460+0.308Medium28
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:22.104+0.502+0.320Medium17
Franco Morbidelli1:22.168+0.566+0.512Medium21
Augusto Fernandez1:22.223+0.621+0.437Medium27
Maverick Viñales1:22.259+0.657+0.292Medium4
Raul Fernandez1:22.288+0.686+0.667Medium25
Takaaki Nakagami1:22.397+0.795+0.359Medium23
Jonas Folger1:23.383+1.781—Medium19

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

44
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
2 leaders
25/30
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin
0.064 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Miguel Oliveira, from P15 to P10.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Jorge Martin (30 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

31
Overtakes
3
Lead changes
3 leaders
12/15
Laps led by the winner
Jorge Martin

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P6 to P1.

Longest battle: Johann Zarco vs Marco Bezzecchi (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:10:27Jonas FolgerRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint15:17:20Maverick ViñalesCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:13:16Maverick ViñalesRetiredEntered pits and retired
Race14:27:32Brad BinderCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium90%+0.62%+0.015138.3
Soft11%—%—0014.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
25.6 °C
Air
max 26.1 °C
34%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
8 km/h
Wind
gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 16.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Johann Zarco01:20.702—15300.0— / ———
2Marc Marquez01:20.854+0.15216295.8Soft / Soft——
3Aleix Espargaro01:20.897+0.19514297.5Soft / Soft1:21.182—4Soft
4Alex Marquez01:20.955+0.25317299.1Soft / Medium1:22.410+1.51%7Medium
5Jorge Martin01:21.032+0.33015299.1— / ———
6Fabio Quartararo01:21.054+0.35216296.7Medium / Soft——
7Brad Binder01:21.099+0.39717301.6Medium / Soft1:22.222+1.28%7Medium
8Francesco Bagnaia01:21.117+0.41517300.8Soft / Soft1:21.285+0.13%6Soft
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:21.210+0.50819295.8— / ———
10Marco Bezzecchi01:21.213+0.51117301.6— / ———
11Takaaki Nakagami01:21.281+0.57915291.8Soft / Soft1:21.800+0.76%5Medium
12Luca Marini01:21.335+0.63316299.1Soft / Soft1:22.074+1.10%11Medium
13Maverick Viñales01:21.369+0.66718299.1— / ———
14Jack Miller01:21.398+0.69619300.0Soft / Soft——
15Miguel Oliveira01:21.435+0.73316295.8Soft / Soft1:22.467+1.58%7Medium
16Raul Fernandez01:21.674+0.97217298.3Soft / Soft1:22.696+1.87%7Medium
17Enea Bastianini01:21.730+1.02817300.8— / ———
18Franco Morbidelli01:22.076+1.37415297.5— / ———
19Augusto Fernandez01:22.172+1.47018295.0Medium / Medium1:22.809+2.00%8Medium
20Jonas Folger01:22.818+2.11616293.4Soft / Soft1:24.475+4.06%7Medium
FP2 · 16.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:20.271—25301.6Medium / Soft——
2Jorge Martin01:20.311+0.04031300.8Soft / Soft1:22.043+0.35%6Medium
3Aleix Espargaro01:20.352+0.08117300.0Soft / Soft——
4Francesco Bagnaia01:20.371+0.10030301.6Soft / Soft1:21.926+0.21%6Soft
5Jack Miller01:20.420+0.14929300.0Soft / Soft1:22.357+0.74%10Soft
6Fabio Quartararo01:20.623+0.35226297.5Soft / Soft1:22.270+0.63%7Soft
7Luca Marini01:20.639+0.36831301.6Soft / Soft1:21.754—6Medium
8Enea Bastianini01:20.657+0.38630300.8Soft / Soft1:22.194+0.54%6Soft
9Alex Marquez01:20.671+0.40030299.1Medium / Soft1:22.285+0.65%6Soft
10Brad Binder01:20.765+0.49430302.5Medium / Soft1:23.168+1.73%5Soft
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:20.799+0.52819296.7Medium / Soft1:22.779+1.25%7Soft
12Augusto Fernandez01:20.818+0.54729299.1Soft / Soft1:22.248+0.60%7Soft
13Miguel Oliveira01:20.862+0.59119298.3Soft / Soft——
14Johann Zarco01:20.875+0.60421298.3Medium / Soft——
15Maverick Viñales01:20.885+0.61424300.8Medium / Soft——
16Franco Morbidelli01:21.122+0.85125299.1Soft / Soft1:22.544+0.97%6Soft
17Raul Fernandez01:21.857+1.58621295.8Soft / Soft1:23.291+1.88%5Soft
18Marc Marquez01:22.141+1.87020296.7Soft / Soft1:22.555+0.98%5Soft
19Jonas Folger01:22.905+2.63425294.2Soft / Soft1:23.306+1.90%6Soft
20Takaaki Nakagami01:23.950+3.6793289.5Medium / Soft——
Free practice · 17.06 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:29.269—16288.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:32.916+3.16%11Wet-Soft
2Alex Marquez01:29.297+0.02815291.1Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
3Johann Zarco01:29.360+0.09115291.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.073—7Wet-Soft
4Marco Bezzecchi01:29.659+0.39013291.8Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.363+0.32%6Wet-Soft
5Jack Miller01:29.800+0.53115289.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.611+1.71%10Wet-Soft
6Aleix Espargaro01:29.825+0.55611284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft——
7Augusto Fernandez01:29.845+0.57615283.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.090+1.13%9Wet-Soft
8Francesco Bagnaia01:29.909+0.64013288.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.194+1.25%5Wet-Soft
9Franco Morbidelli01:29.973+0.70415282.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.466+1.55%8Wet-Soft
10Jorge Martin01:29.989+0.72014292.6Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium1:32.879+3.12%5Wet-Soft
11Maverick Viñales01:30.012+0.74313287.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.428+0.39%5Wet-Soft
12Miguel Oliveira01:30.024+0.75515287.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.502+0.48%5Wet-Soft
13Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.070+0.80115288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.752+0.75%6Wet-Soft
14Brad Binder01:30.117+0.84816288.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:30.817+0.83%11Wet-Soft
15Luca Marini01:30.490+1.22115288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.187+1.24%11Wet-Soft
16Fabio Quartararo01:30.659+1.39015287.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:31.054+1.09%11Wet-Soft
17Raul Fernandez01:30.896+1.62713285.7missing / missing1:31.660+1.76%5missing
18Takaaki Nakagami01:30.929+1.66012279.0Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:32.201+2.36%4Wet-Soft
19Enea Bastianini01:31.055+1.78615284.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:32.097+2.25%11Wet-Soft
20Jonas Folger01:31.235+1.96614276.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft1:34.145+4.52%7Wet-Soft
Q1 · 17.06 partly wet
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Brad Binder01:24.655—9294.2Soft / Soft——
2Marc Marquez01:25.681+1.0267289.5Soft / Soft——
3Maverick Viñales01:27.269+2.6148288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
4Fabio Di Giannantonio01:27.692+3.0377289.5Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
5Augusto Fernandez01:27.734+3.0797286.4Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
6Miguel Oliveira01:27.882+3.2278288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
7Franco Morbidelli01:27.908+3.2539288.7Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
8Takaaki Nakagami01:28.404+3.7499281.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
9Raul Fernandez01:29.119+4.46410287.2Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium1:30.094—6Wet-Medium
10Jonas Folger01:29.712+5.0578281.9Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium——
Q2 · 17.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Francesco Bagnaia01:21.409—10299.1Soft / Soft
2Luca Marini01:21.487+0.0789299.1Soft / Soft
3Jack Miller01:21.492+0.0839298.3Soft / Soft
4Johann Zarco01:21.765+0.3567295.8Soft / Soft
5Marco Bezzecchi01:21.936+0.5277302.5Soft / Soft
6Jorge Martin01:21.995+0.58610300.8Soft / Soft
7Marc Marquez01:22.013+0.6046294.2Soft / Soft
8Alex Marquez01:22.044+0.63510296.7Soft / Soft
9Brad Binder01:22.047+0.6389299.1Soft / Soft
10Aleix Espargaro01:22.222+0.8139294.2Soft / Soft
11Enea Bastianini01:22.239+0.83010300.8Soft / Soft
12Fabio Quartararo01:22.421+1.01210293.4Soft / Soft
Sprint · 17.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin20:21.8711215Hard / Soft1:21.403—13Soft
2Francesco Bagnaia+2.468915Hard / Soft1:21.463+0.07%13Soft
3Jack Miller+3.287715Hard / Soft1:21.591+0.23%13Soft
4Luca Marini+5.487615Hard / Soft1:21.774+0.46%13Soft
5Johann Zarco+5.538515Medium / Soft1:21.706+0.37%13Soft
6Brad Binder+6.289415Hard / Soft1:21.694+0.36%13Soft
7Marco Bezzecchi+6.956315Medium / Soft1:21.791+0.48%13Soft
8Alex Marquez+9.261215Hard / Soft1:21.958+0.68%13Soft
9Aleix Espargaro+9.691115Hard / Soft1:21.945+0.67%13Soft
10Enea Bastianini+9.715015Hard / Soft1:21.903+0.61%13Soft
11Marc Marquez+10.828015Hard / Soft1:22.090+0.84%12Soft
12Fabio Di Giannantonio+10.905015Hard / Soft1:22.000+0.73%13Soft
13Fabio Quartararo+11.366015Hard / Soft1:21.900+0.61%13Soft
14Augusto Fernandez+12.593015Hard / Soft1:22.052+0.80%13Soft
15Franco Morbidelli+12.905015Hard / Soft1:22.054+0.80%13Soft
16Miguel Oliveira+13.837015Hard / Soft1:22.117+0.88%13Soft
17Takaaki Nakagami+14.505015Medium / Soft1:22.129+0.89%13Soft
18Raul Fernandez+28.959015Hard / Soft1:22.553+1.41%12Soft
RetiredJonas Folger06Hard / Soft1:22.570+1.43%4Soft
RetiredMaverick Viñales011Hard / Soft1:22.011+0.75%9Soft
Warm Up · 18.06
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:20.999—8301.6Medium / Medium1:21.287—6Medium
2Jorge Martin01:21.061+0.0627301.6Medium / Medium——
3Francesco Bagnaia01:21.097+0.0987301.6Hard / Medium——
4Miguel Oliveira01:21.133+0.1348297.5Hard / Medium1:21.445+0.19%5Medium
5Fabio Quartararo01:21.197+0.1988297.5Hard / Soft1:21.424+0.17%6Soft
6Takaaki Nakagami01:21.223+0.2248295.0Soft / Soft1:21.428+0.17%6Soft
7Johann Zarco01:21.236+0.2377300.0Medium / Medium——
8Brad Binder01:21.302+0.3038300.8Medium / Medium1:21.746+0.57%6Medium
9Jack Miller01:21.338+0.3398301.6Soft / Medium1:21.779+0.61%6Medium
10Aleix Espargaro01:21.356+0.3578298.3Hard / Soft1:21.902+0.76%6Soft
11Franco Morbidelli01:21.371+0.3727297.5Hard / Medium——
12Luca Marini01:21.389+0.3907302.5Medium / Medium——
13Alex Marquez01:21.412+0.4138299.1Hard / Medium1:21.673+0.48%6Medium
14Augusto Fernandez01:21.456+0.4578295.8Medium / Medium1:21.737+0.55%6Medium
15Fabio Di Giannantonio01:21.571+0.5724296.7Medium / Medium——
16Enea Bastianini01:21.587+0.5887300.0Hard / Medium——
17Raul Fernandez01:21.816+0.8177296.7Hard / Medium——
18Maverick Viñales01:21.985+0.9868297.5Hard / Soft1:22.225+1.15%6Soft
19Marc Marquez01:22.287+1.2882296.7Hard / Medium——
20Jonas Folger01:22.754+1.7557293.4Medium / Medium——
Race · 18.06
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Jorge Martin40:52.4492530— / ———
2Francesco Bagnaia+0.0642030Hard / Medium1:21.602—25Medium
3Johann Zarco+7.0131630Hard / Medium1:21.740+0.17%12Medium
4Marco Bezzecchi+8.4301330— / ———
5Luca Marini+11.6791130Hard / Medium1:22.062+0.56%28Medium
6Jack Miller+11.9041030Hard / Medium1:21.892+0.36%14Medium
7Alex Marquez+14.040930— / ———
8Enea Bastianini+14.859830Hard / Medium1:22.049+0.55%28Medium
9Fabio Di Giannantonio+17.061730Hard / Medium1:22.104+0.62%17Medium
10Miguel Oliveira+19.648630— / ———
11Augusto Fernandez+19.997530Hard / Medium1:22.223+0.76%27Medium
12Franco Morbidelli+22.949430Hard / Medium1:22.168+0.69%21Medium
13Fabio Quartararo+25.117330— / ———
14Takaaki Nakagami+25.327230Hard / Medium1:22.397+0.97%23Medium
15Raul Fernandez+25.503130Hard / Medium1:22.288+0.84%25Medium
16Aleix Espargaro+28.543030— / ———
17Jonas Folger+48.962030Hard / Medium1:23.383+2.18%19Medium
RetiredBrad Binder018Hard / Medium1:21.747+0.18%16Medium
RetiredMaverick Viñales08Hard / Medium1:22.259+0.81%4Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Johann Zarco1:21.466*—+0.344Medium3
Luca Marini1:21.618*+0.152+0.308Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a
Pending · no data yet

Pole and front row

C21
Pending · no data yet

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
RaceMarc Marquez7——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia132%67%81%91%7%2
Luca Marini219%54%73%83%16%4
Jack Miller313%43%65%81%16%3
Johann Zarco410%42%67%89%7%5
Marco Bezzecchi56%25%51%80%16%7
Jorge Martin65%20%45%85%7%1
Alex Marquez73%11%26%62%32%8
Brad Binder83%11%29%79%7%6
Aleix Espargaro92%5%14%58%24%9
Enea Bastianini102%4%11%54%24%10
Fabio Quartararo111%4%9%52%16%13
Maverick Viñales122%4%8%49%7%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio131%3%5%40%7%12
Augusto Fernandez141%2%4%27%24%14
Miguel Oliveira151%2%3%23%9%16
Franco Morbidelli160%2%3%18%7%15
Takaaki Nakagami170%1%2%10%16%17
Raul Fernandez180%1%2%8%8%18
Jonas Folger190%1%1%5%19%—
Marc Marquez200%1%1%5%10%11

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Francesco Bagnaia130%54%64%70%28%2
Luca Marini216%49%71%89%8%5
Jack Miller317%47%63%74%25%6
Johann Zarco414%43%62%79%18%3
Marco Bezzecchi55%25%50%80%16%4
Jorge Martin614%40%58%70%26%1
Alex Marquez71%7%21%63%25%7
Brad Binder83%21%48%83%11%—
Aleix Espargaro90%5%17%61%24%16
Enea Bastianini100%4%17%67%18%8
Fabio Quartararo110%5%20%71%13%13
Maverick Viñales120%1%4%49%12%—
Fabio Di Giannantonio130%0%4%45%19%9
Augusto Fernandez140%0%2%36%10%11
Miguel Oliveira150%0%0%16%19%10
Franco Morbidelli160%0%0%22%17%12
Takaaki Nakagami170%0%0%12%16%14
Raul Fernandez180%0%0%5%18%15
Jonas Folger190%0%0%3%14%17
Marc Marquez200%0%0%7%17%—

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Jorge Martin21% → 40%+195% → 14%
Jack Miller40% → 47%+614% → 17%
Brad Binder15% → 21%+63% → 3%
Dropping
Alex Marquez18% → 7%−113% → 1%
Luca Marini58% → 49%−925% → 16%
Marco Bezzecchi30% → 25%−58% → 5%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Jorge Martin1:21.403—+0.457Soft13
Francesco Bagnaia1:21.463+0.060+0.221Soft13
Jack Miller1:21.591+0.188+0.105Soft13
Brad Binder1:21.694+0.291+0.327Soft13
Johann Zarco1:21.706+0.303+0.344Soft13
Luca Marini1:21.774+0.371+0.308Soft13
Marco Bezzecchi1:21.791+0.388+0.553Soft13
Fabio Quartararo1:21.900+0.497+0.275Soft13
Enea Bastianini1:21.903+0.500+0.319Soft13
Aleix Espargaro1:21.945+0.542+0.209Soft13
Alex Marquez1:21.958+0.555+0.356Soft13
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:22.000+0.597+0.320Soft13
Maverick Viñales1:22.011+0.608+0.292Soft9
Augusto Fernandez1:22.052+0.649+0.437Soft13
Franco Morbidelli1:22.054+0.651+0.512Soft13
Marc Marquez1:22.090+0.687+0.210Soft12
Miguel Oliveira1:22.117+0.714+0.193Soft13
Takaaki Nakagami1:22.129+0.726+0.359Soft13
Raul Fernandez1:22.553+1.150+0.667Soft12
Jonas Folger1:22.570+1.167—Soft4

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · MillerS2 · ZarcoS3 · ZarcoS4 · Oliveira

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 3,649 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2023

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

95/100
Position index
50%
Pole wins
38%
Front row on the podium
0.82
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2022 edition

59
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
30/30
Laps led by the winner
Fabio Quartararo
4.939 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P22 to P12.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Remy Gardner (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2022 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Fabio Quartararo1:22.205—+0.275Medium28
Maverick Viñales1:22.229+0.024+0.292Medium17
Johann Zarco1:22.355+0.150+0.344Hard28
Jack Miller1:22.524+0.319+0.105Hard28
Jorge Martin1:22.556+0.351+0.457Hard28
Takaaki Nakagami1:22.571+0.366+0.359Hard4
Luca Marini1:22.612+0.407+0.308Hard28
Aleix Espargaro1:22.638+0.433+0.209Hard28
Miguel Oliveira1:22.744+0.539+0.193Hard28
Brad Binder1:22.767+0.562+0.327Hard27

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Fabio QuartararoYamaha
  • 2021Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda
  • 2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20265/2025%
20258/1844%
20242/229%
20232/1911%
20227/2330%
20213/2214%

Tyres at the last edition

2022 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Hard87%+0.81%+0.051029.0
Medium13%+0.04%+0.078111.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.