Round 13 of 20 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2022

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

19.08 – 21.08.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:14.886	25
2	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+0.492	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+2.163	16
4	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+8.348	13
5	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+8.821	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.287	10
7	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+11.642	9
8	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+11.780	8
9	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+16.987	7
10	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+17.144	6
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+17.471	5
12	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+18.035	4
13	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+20.012	3
14	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+26.880	2
15	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+29.744	1
16	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+30.994	0
17	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+37.960	0
18	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+42.082	0
19	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+46.666	0
20	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Enea Bastianini · 30%	Francesco Bagnaia · 18% · from P2	0.78 / 0.78	2.9 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:30.273	—	+0.457	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.324	+0.051	+0.275	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:30.348	+0.075	+0.105	Medium	25
Francesco Bagnaia	1:30.354	+0.081	+0.221	Medium	25
Luca Marini	1:30.450	+0.177	+0.308	Medium	26
Aleix Espargaro	1:30.557	+0.284	+0.209	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:30.603	+0.330	+0.344	Medium	26
Brad Binder	1:30.620	+0.347	+0.327	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:30.632	+0.359	+0.217	Medium	25
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:30.777	+0.504	+0.320	Medium	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.810	+0.537	+0.512	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.854	+0.581	+0.553	Soft	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:30.868	+0.595	+0.193	Medium	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:30.992	+0.719	+0.359	Medium	6
Darryn Binder	1:31.007	+0.734	+0.272	Medium	10
Maverick Viñales	1:31.098	+0.825	+0.292	Soft	22
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.148	+0.875	+0.226	Medium	24
Alex Marquez	1:31.235	+0.962	+0.356	Medium	25
Pol Espargaro	1:31.303	+1.030	+0.406	Soft	24
Stefan Bradl	1:31.350	+1.077	+0.530	Soft	25
Remy Gardner	1:31.637	+1.364	+1.660	Medium	21
Raul Fernandez	1:31.796	+1.523	+0.667	Medium	23
Lorenzo Savadori	1:31.829	+1.556	+0.781	missing	23

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

28/28

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

Comeback of the day: Francesco Bagnaia, from P2 to P1.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Marco Bezzecchi (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:20	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:09	Remy Gardner	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:10:26	Enea Bastianini	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	14:15:31	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:14	Darryn Binder	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:06	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:41:25	Jorge Martin	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 10 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Marquez	25	17	+8
Darryn Binder	21	13	+8
Luca Marini	13	7	+6
Pol Espargaro	15	19	−4
Johann Zarco	6	9	−3
Andrea Dovizioso	19	21	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Luca Marini	13→4	+6.5
Marco Bezzecchi	20→9	+6.0
Alex Marquez	25→14	+4.2
Pol Espargaro	15→16	−4.2
Jorge Martin	4→10	−5.2
Maverick Viñales	7→13	−6.3

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	74%	+0.56%	+0.020	1	3	9.3
Soft	26%	+0.78%	+0.035	0	0	12.2

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

17.6 °C

Air

max 18.1 °C

86%

Humidity

0.6 mm

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 35 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 19.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:30.756	—	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:38.710	+6.61%	15	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:31.374	+0.618	21	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:39.052	+6.98%	13	Wet-Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:31.576	+0.820	22	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:40.188	+8.21%	12	Wet-Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:31.616	+0.860	18	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.352	+9.46%	14	Wet-Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.773	+1.017	21	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:39.528	+7.49%	13	Wet-Soft
6	Alex Rins	01:31.875	+1.119	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	1:32.590	—	4	Medium
7	Brad Binder	01:31.913	+1.157	20	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:39.288	+7.23%	10	Medium
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.941	+1.185	20	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:42.529	+10.73%	7	Wet-Soft
9	Enea Bastianini	01:31.976	+1.220	18	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:43.002	+11.25%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.007	+1.251	20	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:40.071	+8.08%	10	Wet-Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:32.074	+1.318	17	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.375	+9.49%	7	Wet-Soft
12	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.321	+1.565	20	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:40.985	+9.07%	15	Medium
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.422	+1.666	21	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:38.520	+6.41%	12	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:32.437	+1.681	19	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:39.153	+7.09%	13	Wet-Soft
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.488	+1.732	16	306.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.742	+9.88%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.513	+1.757	19	310.3	Soft / Medium	1:41.973	+10.13%	6	Wet-Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.557	+1.801	16	306.3	Soft / missing	1:43.134	+11.39%	5	Wet-Soft
18	Stefan Bradl	01:32.748	+1.992	19	303.7	Soft / Medium	1:44.157	+12.49%	8	Wet-Soft
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.775	+2.019	20	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:41.848	+10.00%	10	Wet-Soft
20	Pol Espargaro	01:32.905	+2.149	21	309.0	Soft / Medium	1:42.499	+10.70%	5	Wet-Soft
21	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.963	+2.207	16	302.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.690	+10.91%	7	Wet-Soft
22	Luca Marini	01:32.998	+2.242	18	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:38.185	+6.04%	11	Medium
23	Raul Fernandez	01:33.796	+3.040	19	305.0	Soft / Medium	1:43.179	+11.44%	9	Wet-Soft
24	Darryn Binder	01:35.072	+4.316	17	301.2	Soft / Medium	1:42.165	+10.34%	13	Wet-Soft
25	Remy Gardner	01:35.092	+4.336	17	302.5	Medium / Medium	1:42.466	+10.67%	5	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 19.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:29.837	—	23	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.211	+0.71%	8	missing
2	Jack Miller	01:29.861	+0.024	23	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.103	+0.59%	10	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:29.866	+0.029	22	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.877	+0.040	21	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.569	—	6	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.997	+0.160	21	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:30.792	+0.25%	6	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:30.030	+0.193	22	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.215	+0.71%	5	Medium
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.066	+0.229	20	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.047	+0.53%	5	Medium
8	Enea Bastianini	01:30.066	+0.229	19	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.810	+0.27%	5	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:30.113	+0.276	20	309.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:30.128	+0.291	23	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.524	+1.05%	11	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.147	+0.310	22	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.372	+0.89%	5	Medium
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.311	+0.474	22	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Alex Rins	01:30.321	+0.484	23	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:30.760	+0.21%	6	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	01:30.364	+0.527	19	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Joan Mir	01:30.455	+0.618	21	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.160	+2.86%	5	Medium
16	Alex Marquez	01:30.509	+0.672	22	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.276	+0.78%	5	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.617	+0.780	22	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.237	+0.74%	5	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.639	+0.802	20	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.520	+1.05%	6	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.700	+0.863	21	306.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.345	+0.86%	6	Medium
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.874	+1.037	19	309.0	missing / missing	1:32.225	+1.83%	5	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:31.182	+1.345	20	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.778	+3.54%	6	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.315	+1.478	17	306.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.964	+1.54%	4	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:31.324	+1.487	21	306.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.967	+1.54%	5	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	01:31.575	+1.738	22	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.101	+2.80%	5	Medium
25	Raul Fernandez	01:31.978	+2.141	19	306.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.461	+2.09%	9	Medium

FP3 · 20.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:28.964	—	22	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.217	—	7	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.117	+0.153	22	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.650	+0.48%	9	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:29.280	+0.316	21	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.056	+0.93%	6	Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:29.324	+0.360	21	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.377	+0.413	19	313.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.444	+1.36%	4	Soft
6	Enea Bastianini	01:29.457	+0.493	19	314.4	Soft / Soft	1:30.960	+0.82%	6	Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:29.473	+0.509	23	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:30.912	+0.77%	10	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:29.521	+0.557	20	315.7	Hard / Soft	1:31.539	+1.47%	5	Medium
9	Maverick Viñales	01:29.523	+0.559	22	310.3	Hard / Soft	1:31.096	+0.97%	9	Soft
10	Joan Mir	01:29.538	+0.574	19	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.903	+0.76%	5	Medium
11	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.540	+0.576	20	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:31.298	+1.20%	8	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.585	+0.621	21	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.623	+0.659	21	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:30.859	+0.71%	9	Soft
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.641	+0.677	20	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.136	+1.02%	6	Soft
15	Luca Marini	01:29.684	+0.720	16	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.368	+1.28%	4	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:29.710	+0.746	21	314.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.755	+0.791	19	310.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.244	+1.14%	8	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.821	+0.857	21	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.558	+0.38%	5	Soft
19	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.845	+0.881	20	305.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:30.017	+1.053	21	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.436	+1.35%	10	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:30.026	+1.062	20	307.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	01:30.472	+1.508	17	303.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.049	+3.14%	5	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:30.554	+1.590	19	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:31.804	+1.76%	6	Medium
24	Raul Fernandez	01:31.204	+2.240	21	310.3	Hard / Soft	—			—
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.699	+2.735	9	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP4 · 20.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:29.731	—	15	315.7	Hard / Medium	1:30.154	—	5	Medium
2	Luca Marini	01:29.825	+0.094	15	311.6	Hard / Medium	1:31.906	+1.94%	5	Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:29.862	+0.131	13	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:30.471	+0.35%	6	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.868	+0.137	16	307.6	Hard / Soft	1:31.403	+1.39%	5	Medium
5	Marco Bezzecchi	01:29.941	+0.210	15	311.6	Hard / Soft	1:30.528	+0.42%	12	Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:30.003	+0.272	16	311.6	Soft / Medium	1:30.899	+0.83%	7	Medium
7	Joan Mir	01:30.038	+0.307	15	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.320	+0.18%	6	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	01:30.228	+0.497	16	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.765	+0.68%	5	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.282	+0.551	17	309.0	Hard / Medium	1:30.808	+0.73%	9	Medium
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.359	+0.628	14	311.6	Hard / Medium	1:30.666	+0.57%	10	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:30.374	+0.643	15	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:30.846	+0.77%	6	Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.386	+0.655	16	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:30.643	+0.54%	5	Medium
13	Alex Marquez	01:30.391	+0.660	15	309.0	Medium / Medium	1:31.014	+0.95%	10	Medium
14	Jack Miller	01:30.546	+0.815	19	313.0	Hard / Medium	1:30.822	+0.74%	11	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.568	+0.837	17	309.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.019	+0.96%	11	Medium
16	Maverick Viñales	01:30.573	+0.842	17	309.0	Hard / Soft	1:30.946	+0.88%	13	Soft
17	Pol Espargaro	01:30.717	+0.986	16	309.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.717	+1.73%	8	Medium
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.744	+1.013	15	305.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.147	+1.10%	5	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:30.772	+1.041	17	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.377	+1.36%	5	Medium
20	Darryn Binder	01:31.069	+1.338	15	305.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.702	+1.72%	6	Medium
21	Brad Binder	01:31.172	+1.441	14	311.6	Hard / Medium	1:32.272	+2.35%	6	Medium
22	Stefan Bradl	01:31.202	+1.471	13	307.6	Medium / Soft	1:31.523	+1.52%	4	Medium
23	Lorenzo Savadori	01:31.573	+1.842	12	307.6	Hard / missing	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	01:31.602	+1.871	14	306.3	Hard / Medium	1:31.926	+1.97%	4	Medium
25	Remy Gardner	01:31.774	+2.043	15	305.0	Hard / Medium	1:31.886	+1.92%	4	Medium

Q1 · 20.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.231	—	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
2	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.350	+0.119	8	314.4	Soft / Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:29.386	+0.155	9	310.3	Hard / Soft
4	Takaaki Nakagami	01:29.390	+0.159	8	311.6	Hard / Soft
5	Pol Espargaro	01:29.475	+0.244	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:29.540	+0.309	9	310.3	Hard / Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:29.613	+0.382	8	311.6	Hard / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:29.809	+0.578	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
9	Andrea Dovizioso	01:30.085	+0.854	9	306.3	Soft / Soft
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.122	+0.891	5	313.0	Hard / Soft
11	Darryn Binder	01:30.328	+1.097	8	306.3	Hard / Soft
12	Remy Gardner	01:30.397	+1.166	8	306.3	Hard / Soft
13	Raul Fernandez	01:30.475	+1.244	8	310.3	Hard / missing
14	Lorenzo Savadori	01:30.487	+1.256	4	309.0	Hard / Soft
15	Alex Marquez	01:33.653	+4.422	5	311.6	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 20.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:28.772	—	7	315.7	Soft / Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:28.796	+0.024	8	314.4	Hard / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:28.881	+0.109	7	314.4	Soft / Soft
4	Jorge Martin	01:28.958	+0.186	7	313.0	Hard / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.003	+0.231	8	310.3	missing / missing
6	Johann Zarco	01:29.046	+0.274	8	313.0	Soft / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:29.135	+0.363	8	310.3	Hard / Soft
8	Joan Mir	01:29.255	+0.483	8	311.6	Medium / Soft
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:29.255	+0.483	7	311.6	Hard / Soft
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:29.336	+0.564	7	311.6	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:29.424	+0.652	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:29.536	+0.764	8	311.6	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 21.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:29.800	—	13	307.6	Medium / missing	1:30.309	—	7	missing
2	Maverick Viñales	01:30.315	+0.515	12	311.6	Medium / Medium	1:31.921	+1.79%	7	Medium
3	Jorge Martin	01:30.346	+0.546	11	311.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Jack Miller	01:30.412	+0.612	12	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:30.911	+0.67%	6	Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:30.462	+0.662	12	309.0	Soft / Soft	1:31.276	+1.07%	6	Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:30.466	+0.666	13	313.0	Soft / Medium	1:31.723	+1.57%	8	Medium
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.485	+0.685	12	309.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.347	+1.15%	8	Soft
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.505	+0.705	11	309.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:30.571	+0.771	13	310.3	Soft / Soft	1:31.573	+1.40%	4	Soft
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:30.624	+0.824	11	311.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.276	+4.39%	5	Soft
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.759	+0.959	9	311.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:30.874	+1.074	11	306.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.588	+2.52%	7	Soft
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.958	+1.158	12	313.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	01:30.994	+1.194	8	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:31.001	+1.201	11	306.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:31.043	+1.243	10	314.4	Soft / Soft	1:32.726	+2.68%	5	Soft
17	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.061	+1.261	12	306.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.682	+1.52%	9	Soft
18	Andrea Dovizioso	01:31.094	+1.294	12	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.145	+3.14%	9	Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:31.110	+1.310	11	310.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Marquez	01:31.120	+1.320	13	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:32.538	+2.47%	7	Medium
21	Brad Binder	01:31.159	+1.359	10	309.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:31.552	+1.752	12	305.0	Medium / Soft	1:32.292	+2.20%	8	Soft
23	Remy Gardner	01:32.025	+2.225	8	305.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:32.338	+2.538	10	306.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
25	Lorenzo Savadori	01:32.935	+3.135	8	310.3	Wet-Medium / Soft	—			—

Race · 21.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	42:14.886	25	28	Soft / Medium	1:30.354	+0.09%	25	Medium
2	Fabio Quartararo	+0.492	20	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.324	+0.06%	22	Medium
3	Jack Miller	+2.163	16	28	Soft / Medium	1:30.348	+0.08%	25	Medium
4	Luca Marini	+8.348	13	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.450	+0.20%	26	Medium
5	Johann Zarco	+8.821	11	28	Soft / Medium	1:30.603	+0.37%	26	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	+11.287	10	28	Hard / Soft	1:30.557	+0.32%	25	Soft
7	Brad Binder	+11.642	9	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.620	+0.38%	24	Medium
8	Alex Rins	+11.780	8	28	Medium / Medium	1:30.632	+0.40%	25	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	+16.987	7	28	Hard / Soft	1:30.854	+0.64%	24	Soft
10	Jorge Martin	+17.144	6	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.273	—	22	Medium
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+17.471	5	28	Soft / Medium	1:30.777	+0.56%	23	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	+18.035	4	28	Hard / Medium	1:30.868	+0.66%	23	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	+20.012	3	28	Hard / Soft	1:31.098	+0.91%	22	Soft
14	Alex Marquez	+26.880	2	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.235	+1.07%	25	Medium
15	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.744	1	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.148	+0.97%	24	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	+30.994	0	28	Hard / Soft	1:31.303	+1.14%	24	Soft
17	Stefan Bradl	+37.960	0	28	Medium / Soft	1:31.350	+1.19%	25	Soft
18	Raul Fernandez	+42.082	0	28	Hard / Medium	1:31.796	+1.69%	23	Medium
19	Lorenzo Savadori	+46.666	0	28	Hard / missing	1:31.829	+1.72%	23	missing
20	Remy Gardner	+0.000	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:31.637	+1.51%	21	Medium
Retired	Darryn Binder		0	12	Hard / Medium	1:31.007	+0.81%	10	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	6	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	25	Hard / Medium	1:30.810	+0.60%	20	Medium
Out on lap 1	Joan Mir		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	9	Hard / Medium	1:30.992	+0.80%	6	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:30.554	—	+0.275	Medium	5
Joan Mir	1:30.753	+0.199	+0.562	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	1:30.822	+0.268	+0.319	Medium	6
Franco Morbidelli	1:30.838	+0.284	+0.512	Medium	5
Marco Bezzecchi	1:30.857*	+0.303	+0.553	Medium	3
Alex Rins	1:30.912	+0.358	+0.217	Medium	10
Alex Marquez	1:31.021	+0.467	+0.356	Medium	9
Pol Espargaro	1:31.055	+0.501	+0.406	Medium	7
Jorge Martin	1:31.103*	+0.549	+0.457	Medium	3
Andrea Dovizioso	1:31.344*	+0.790	+0.226	Medium	4
Takaaki Nakagami	1:31.392	+0.838	+0.359	Medium	5
Stefan Bradl	1:31.676	+1.122	+0.530	Medium	5
Darryn Binder	1:32.723	+2.169	+0.272	Medium	7

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Aleix Espargaro	57%	1 ✓
2	Takaaki Nakagami	42%	4
3	Marco Bezzecchi	32%	10
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	20%	2 ✓
5	Luca Marini	18%	3
6	Pol Espargaro	9%	5
7	Franco Morbidelli	8%	6
8	Miguel Oliveira	4%	7
9	Andrea Dovizioso	2%	9
10	Alex Marquez	3%	15
11	Stefan Bradl	4%	8
12	Darryn Binder	2%	11
13	Remy Gardner	1%	12
14	Lorenzo Savadori	0%	14
15	Raul Fernandez	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Johann Zarco	35%	64%	89%	6
2	Fabio Quartararo	25%	52%	82%	5
3	Jack Miller	15%	49%	79%	3
4	Jorge Martin	4%	32%	68%	4
5	Francesco Bagnaia	4%	27%	53%	2
6	Enea Bastianini	6%	22%	55%	1
7	Alex Rins	1%	11%	39%	11
8	Brad Binder	2%	12%	37%	12
9	Maverick Viñales	2%	8%	27%	7
10	Joan Mir	2%	8%	25%	8
11	Aleix Espargaro	3%	11%	28%	9
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	4%	18%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Enea Bastianini	1	30%	56%	69%	78%	20%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	2	18%	45%	58%	69%	30%	1
Jack Miller	3	14%	41%	58%	73%	25%	3
Jorge Martin	4	10%	32%	50%	68%	29%	10
Fabio Quartararo	5	9%	34%	57%	82%	13%	2
Johann Zarco	6	6%	26%	46%	74%	18%	5
Maverick Viñales	7	5%	23%	43%	78%	11%	13
Joan Mir	8	3%	14%	30%	67%	21%	—
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	9%	21%	60%	25%	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	10	1%	6%	18%	57%	23%	11
Alex Rins	11	1%	5%	13%	51%	22%	8
Brad Binder	12	1%	4%	11%	50%	14%	7
Luca Marini	13	0%	3%	9%	51%	3%	4
Takaaki Nakagami	14	0%	2%	6%	37%	15%	—
Pol Espargaro	15	0%	1%	4%	27%	20%	16
Franco Morbidelli	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	16%	—
Miguel Oliveira	17	0%	0%	2%	16%	18%	12
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	19%	17
Andrea Dovizioso	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	12%	15
Marco Bezzecchi	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	23%	9
Darryn Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	23%	—
Remy Gardner	22	0%	0%	0%	4%	12%	20
Raul Fernandez	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	20%	18
Lorenzo Savadori	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	28%	19
Alex Marquez	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	24%	14

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	180	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	158	−22
3	Francesco Bagnaia	131	−49
4	Enea Bastianini	118	−62
5	Johann Zarco	114	−66
6	Jack Miller	107	−73

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

183

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

4/28

Laps led by the winner

Brad Binder

12.991 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Luca Marini, from P17 to P5.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marc Marquez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:24.689	—	+0.275	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:24.736	+0.047	+0.210	Soft	24
Jorge Martin	1:24.794	+0.105	+0.457	Medium	20
Francesco Bagnaia	1:24.812	+0.123	+0.221	Medium	24
Joan Mir	1:24.853	+0.164	+0.562	Medium	23
Johann Zarco	1:24.897	+0.208	+0.344	Medium	15
Brad Binder	1:24.929	+0.240	+0.327	Medium	19
Miguel Oliveira	1:24.977	+0.288	+0.193	Medium	19
Aleix Espargaro	1:24.996	+0.307	+0.209	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:25.060	+0.371	+0.217	Medium	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+0.47%	+0.098	1	3	8.6
Soft	5%	+0.06%	+0.421	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.