Round 12 of 20 Aftermath

British Grand Prix 2022

5.900 m · 20 laps · since 1977

05.08 – 07.08.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	40:10.260	25
2	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.426	20
3	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+0.614	16
4	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.651	13
5	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+1.750	11
6	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+2.727	10
7	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+3.021	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+3.819	8
9	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+3.958	7
10	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+6.646	6
11	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+7.730	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+13.439	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+13.706	3
14	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+13.906	2
15	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+16.359	1
16	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+20.805	0
17	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+21.099	0
18	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+24.579	0
19	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+28.773	0
20	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+33.653	0
21	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+35.601	0
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+36.460	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Johann Zarco · 29%	Francesco Bagnaia · 5% · from P5	0.83 / 0.83	3.0 / 3.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	2:00.006	—	+0.344	Hard	4
Joan Mir	2:00.166	+0.160	+0.562	Hard	12
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.208	+0.202	+0.221	Hard	14
Maverick Viñales	2:00.264	+0.258	+0.292	Hard	18
Enea Bastianini	2:00.311	+0.305	+0.319	Hard	18
Brad Binder	2:00.316	+0.310	+0.327	Medium	18
Jorge Martin	2:00.320	+0.314	+0.457	Hard	18
Jack Miller	2:00.393	+0.387	+0.105	Hard	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.410	+0.404	+0.209	Hard	17
Miguel Oliveira	2:00.417	+0.411	+0.193	Hard	17
Alex Rins	2:00.443	+0.437	+0.217	Hard	18
Marco Bezzecchi	2:00.456	+0.450	+0.553	Hard	18
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.466	+0.460	+0.275	Medium	18
Pol Espargaro	2:00.714	+0.708	+0.406	Medium	18
Franco Morbidelli	2:00.729	+0.723	+0.512	Medium	18
Luca Marini	2:00.774	+0.768	+0.308	Hard	18
Takaaki Nakagami	2:00.890	+0.884	+0.359	Medium	15
Alex Marquez	2:01.101	+1.095	+0.356	Medium	18
Andrea Dovizioso	2:01.208	+1.202	+0.226	Hard	16
Remy Gardner	2:01.294	+1.288	+1.660	Medium	18
Stefan Bradl	2:01.459	+1.453	+0.530	Hard	17
Darryn Binder	2:01.517	+1.511	+0.272	Medium	17
Fabio Di Giannantonio	2:01.908	+1.902	+0.320	Hard	15
Raul Fernandez	2:01.940	+1.934	+0.667	Medium	18

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

9/20

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.426 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Andrea Dovizioso, from P24 to P16.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Joan Mir (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	13:03:06	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	13:10:10	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	13:13:07	Stefan Bradl	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to shortcut at T4
Race	13:18:50	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	13:30:05	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #6 & long lap penalty for rider #20

Race: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Johann Zarco (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	11	5	+6
Darryn Binder	23	18	+5
Alex Marquez	17	12	+5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	23	−8
Luca Marini	10	17	−7
Marco Bezzecchi	7	14	−7

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Miguel Oliveira	13→6	+4.5
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Enea Bastianini	8→4	+3.3
Raul Fernandez	22→21	−4.7
Remy Gardner	16→18	−5.5
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15→22	−10.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	63%	+0.34%	+0.056	1	3	8.9
Medium	38%	+0.74%	+0.079	0	0	15.2

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

23.3 °C

Air

max 24.1 °C

39%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

7 km/h

Wind

gusts 29 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 05.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:59.893	—	13	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.576	+0.62%	5	Medium
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.920	+0.027	12	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
3	Alex Rins	02:00.220	+0.327	17	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
4	Fabio Quartararo	02:00.438	+0.545	17	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.826	—	9	Medium
5	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.448	+0.555	18	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.014	+0.98%	10	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.630	+0.737	17	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.922	+1.74%	10	Medium
7	Maverick Viñales	02:00.799	+0.906	18	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.476	+0.54%	12	Medium
8	Joan Mir	02:00.843	+0.950	18	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
9	Jorge Martin	02:00.948	+1.055	19	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:03.078	+1.86%	6	Medium
10	Brad Binder	02:00.994	+1.101	18	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.544	+0.59%	11	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	02:01.040	+1.147	18	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.533	+1.41%	11	Medium
12	Jack Miller	02:01.055	+1.162	16	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.478	+0.54%	5	Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	02:01.112	+1.219	19	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.112	+1.06%	12	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	02:01.120	+1.227	16	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.148	+1.92%	7	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	02:01.174	+1.281	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.753	+1.60%	5	Medium
16	Enea Bastianini	02:01.219	+1.326	16	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:02.131	+1.08%	12	Medium
17	Remy Gardner	02:01.539	+1.646	17	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.921	+1.73%	5	Medium
18	Raul Fernandez	02:01.578	+1.685	16	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.006	+0.98%	6	Medium
19	Luca Marini	02:01.607	+1.714	16	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.064	+1.03%	6	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.748	+1.855	15	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:03.160	+1.93%	10	Medium
21	Franco Morbidelli	02:01.775	+1.882	17	324.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	02:02.062	+2.169	16	330.2	Soft / Medium	2:04.259	+2.84%	6	Medium
23	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:02.179	+2.286	16	326.2	Soft / Medium	2:02.920	+1.73%	12	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	02:02.565	+2.672	16	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:04.344	+2.91%	5	Medium

FP2 · 05.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.946	—	15	327.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.794	—	5	Medium
2	Joan Mir	01:59.100	+0.154	16	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:59.123	+0.177	15	331.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Johann Zarco	01:59.134	+0.188	15	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.153	+0.207	15	333.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.163	+0.217	15	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:59.246	+0.300	18	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Enea Bastianini	01:59.358	+0.412	16	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Jack Miller	01:59.364	+0.418	14	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.378	+0.432	17	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:59.385	+0.439	15	332.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:59.396	+0.450	16	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Jorge Martin	01:59.657	+0.711	16	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Marquez	01:59.789	+0.843	16	326.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Stefan Bradl	01:59.801	+0.855	16	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.578	+0.65%	4	Medium
16	Pol Espargaro	01:59.852	+0.906	14	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.986	+1.040	16	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.003	+1.057	16	326.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.043	+1.097	16	328.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.138	+1.192	17	324.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.491	+0.58%	8	Medium
21	Brad Binder	02:00.144	+1.198	10	327.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
22	Remy Gardner	02:00.154	+1.208	15	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Darryn Binder	02:01.528	+2.582	10	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	02:02.062	+3.116	11	323.3	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP3 · 06.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Aleix Espargaro	01:58.254	—	14	337.5	Medium / Soft	2:00.634	+0.42%	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:58.282	+0.028	17	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.160	+0.86%	6	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:58.332	+0.078	14	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:00.224	+0.08%	5	Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:58.344	+0.090	16	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:00.284	+0.13%	8	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:58.575	+0.321	15	335.4	Medium / Soft	2:00.133	—	6	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	01:58.619	+0.365	16	331.2	Soft / Soft	2:00.548	+0.35%	6	Medium
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:58.625	+0.371	16	338.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Joan Mir	01:58.657	+0.403	17	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Luca Marini	01:58.663	+0.409	17	334.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.286	+0.96%	7	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:58.729	+0.475	16	333.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.911	+0.657	18	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.364	+1.03%	8	Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:58.927	+0.673	15	337.5	Soft / Soft	2:01.930	+1.50%	6	Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.006	+0.752	13	333.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.740	+1.34%	5	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.066	+0.812	17	332.3	Medium / Soft	2:00.700	+0.47%	6	Soft
15	Alex Marquez	01:59.110	+0.856	18	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.188	+0.88%	6	Soft
16	Pol Espargaro	01:59.225	+0.971	16	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
17	Andrea Dovizioso	01:59.240	+0.986	18	330.2	Soft / Soft	2:01.782	+1.37%	9	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:59.485	+1.231	16	336.4	Soft / Soft	2:01.410	+1.06%	6	Soft
19	Brad Binder	01:59.531	+1.277	16	331.2	Medium / Soft	2:00.590	+0.38%	5	Medium
20	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.623	+1.369	15	332.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Remy Gardner	01:59.649	+1.395	15	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
22	Stefan Bradl	01:59.815	+1.561	18	332.3	Soft / Soft	2:01.765	+1.36%	5	Soft
23	Raul Fernandez	02:00.065	+1.811	14	331.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	02:00.639	+2.385	15	329.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.380	+1.87%	6	Medium

FP4 · 06.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:59.005	—	12	333.3	Soft / Hard	1:59.759	+0.07%	9	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	01:59.055	+0.050	12	333.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:59.106	+0.101	13	336.4	Soft / Medium	2:00.194	+0.43%	8	Medium
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.297	+0.292	13	331.2	Medium / Medium	1:59.676	—	5	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.332	+0.327	12	329.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
6	Jorge Martin	01:59.538	+0.533	12	336.4	Soft / Hard	—			—
7	Alex Rins	01:59.706	+0.701	12	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.735	+0.730	12	334.3	Medium / Hard	2:00.310	+0.53%	9	Hard
9	Brad Binder	01:59.752	+0.747	11	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
10	Joan Mir	01:59.826	+0.821	13	336.4	Medium / Medium	—			—
11	Enea Bastianini	01:59.972	+0.967	12	336.4	Medium / Medium	2:00.490	+0.68%	8	Medium
12	Aleix Espargaro	02:00.024	+1.019	2	330.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
13	Remy Gardner	02:00.164	+1.159	10	329.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.196	+1.191	10	332.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	02:00.230	+1.225	13	327.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.437	+1.432	12	330.2	Medium / Medium	2:01.099	+1.19%	8	Medium
17	Luca Marini	02:00.463	+1.458	11	333.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Stefan Bradl	02:00.551	+1.546	12	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:00.688	+1.683	13	331.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.857	+0.99%	6	Medium
20	Pol Espargaro	02:00.756	+1.751	12	331.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
21	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.787	+1.782	11	335.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Darryn Binder	02:00.816	+1.811	10	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
23	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.485	+2.480	11	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Raul Fernandez	02:02.765	+3.760	7	328.2	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 06.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Enea Bastianini	01:58.609	—	7	338.5	Soft / Soft
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.756	+0.147	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:58.853	+0.244	7	332.3	Medium / Soft
4	Brad Binder	01:58.932	+0.323	6	334.3	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:58.948	+0.339	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
6	Remy Gardner	01:59.120	+0.511	6	332.3	Medium / Soft
7	Alex Marquez	01:59.288	+0.679	5	332.3	Medium / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:59.339	+0.730	7	333.3	Soft / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:59.367	+0.758	6	336.4	Soft / Soft
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:59.390	+0.781	7	329.2	Soft / Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:59.614	+1.005	7	332.3	Soft / Soft
12	Raul Fernandez	01:59.920	+1.311	7	330.2	Medium / missing
13	Darryn Binder	01:59.931	+1.322	7	330.2	Medium / Soft
14	Andrea Dovizioso	02:00.232	+1.623	7	330.2	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 06.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Johann Zarco	01:57.767	—	6	335.4	Soft / Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:57.865	+0.098	6	334.3	Medium / Soft
3	Jack Miller	01:57.931	+0.164	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:57.938	+0.171	7	330.2	Soft / Soft
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:57.961	+0.194	7	336.4	Soft / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:57.966	+0.199	6	333.3	Medium / Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:58.101	+0.334	7	336.4	Medium / Soft
8	Enea Bastianini	01:58.106	+0.339	6	340.6	Soft / Soft
9	Jorge Martin	01:58.174	+0.407	6	337.5	Soft / Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:58.317	+0.550	7	335.4	Soft / Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:58.318	+0.551	6	331.2	Soft / Soft
12	Joan Mir	01:58.543	+0.776	7	331.2	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 07.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:59.227	—	7	332.3	Medium / Hard	1:59.848	+0.11%	5	Hard
2	Alex Rins	01:59.437	+0.210	10	330.2	Medium / Medium	1:59.917	+0.17%	6	Medium
3	Joan Mir	01:59.493	+0.266	10	328.2	Soft / Hard	2:01.342	+1.36%	8	Hard
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:59.568	+0.341	10	332.3	Soft / Medium	1:59.720	—	5	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:59.890	+0.663	8	329.2	Soft / Medium	2:00.119	+0.33%	5	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:59.894	+0.667	9	333.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
7	Jorge Martin	01:59.904	+0.677	10	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:59.935	+0.708	10	328.2	Soft / Hard	2:00.123	+0.34%	7	Hard
9	Brad Binder	02:00.017	+0.790	10	333.3	Soft / Hard	2:01.058	+1.12%	7	Hard
10	Takaaki Nakagami	02:00.040	+0.813	10	332.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.162	+1.20%	6	Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	02:00.054	+0.827	10	337.5	Soft / Hard	2:00.749	+0.86%	7	Hard
12	Francesco Bagnaia	02:00.108	+0.881	10	337.5	Soft / Hard	2:00.410	+0.58%	7	Hard
13	Pol Espargaro	02:00.441	+1.214	8	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Stefan Bradl	02:00.512	+1.285	10	328.2	Soft / Hard	2:01.193	+1.23%	5	Hard
15	Johann Zarco	02:00.695	+1.468	10	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Luca Marini	02:00.738	+1.511	10	333.3	Medium / Hard	2:01.190	+1.23%	7	Hard
17	Alex Marquez	02:00.776	+1.549	9	327.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Franco Morbidelli	02:00.995	+1.768	10	327.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.303	+1.32%	7	Medium
19	Fabio Di Giannantonio	02:01.090	+1.863	8	332.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
20	Jack Miller	02:01.199	+1.972	9	334.3	Soft / Medium	2:01.767	+1.71%	5	Medium
21	Andrea Dovizioso	02:01.363	+2.136	10	328.2	Soft / Soft	2:02.535	+2.35%	7	Soft
22	Raul Fernandez	02:01.445	+2.218	9	329.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	02:01.563	+2.336	10	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:01.813	+1.75%	7	Medium
24	Darryn Binder	02:02.428	+3.201	10	328.2	Soft / Medium	2:04.931	+4.35%	7	Medium

Race · 07.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	40:10.260	25	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.208	+0.17%	14	Hard
2	Maverick Viñales	+0.426	20	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.264	+0.22%	18	Hard
3	Jack Miller	+0.614	16	20	Soft / Hard	2:00.393	+0.32%	17	Hard
4	Enea Bastianini	+1.651	13	20	Soft / Hard	2:00.311	+0.25%	18	Hard
5	Jorge Martin	+1.750	11	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.320	+0.26%	18	Hard
6	Miguel Oliveira	+2.727	10	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.417	+0.34%	17	Hard
7	Alex Rins	+3.021	9	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.443	+0.36%	18	Hard
8	Fabio Quartararo	+3.819	8	20	Soft / Medium	2:00.466	+0.38%	18	Medium
9	Aleix Espargaro	+3.958	7	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.410	+0.34%	17	Hard
10	Marco Bezzecchi	+6.646	6	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.456	+0.38%	18	Hard
11	Brad Binder	+7.730	5	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.316	+0.26%	18	Medium
12	Luca Marini	+13.439	4	20	Medium / Hard	2:00.774	+0.64%	18	Hard
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+13.706	3	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.890	+0.74%	15	Medium
14	Pol Espargaro	+13.906	2	20	Medium / Medium	2:00.714	+0.59%	18	Medium
15	Franco Morbidelli	+16.359	1	20	Soft / Medium	2:00.729	+0.60%	18	Medium
16	Andrea Dovizioso	+20.805	0	20	Medium / Hard	2:01.208	+1.00%	16	Hard
17	Alex Marquez	+21.099	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.101	+0.91%	18	Medium
18	Remy Gardner	+24.579	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.294	+1.07%	18	Medium
19	Stefan Bradl	+28.773	0	20	Soft / Hard	2:01.459	+1.21%	17	Hard
20	Darryn Binder	+33.653	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.517	+1.26%	17	Medium
21	Raul Fernandez	+35.601	0	20	Medium / Medium	2:01.940	+1.61%	18	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+36.460	0	20	Soft / Hard	2:01.908	+1.59%	15	Hard
Retired	Joan Mir		0	14	Medium / Hard	2:00.166	+0.13%	12	Hard
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	8	Medium / Hard	2:00.006	—	4	Hard

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Miguel Oliveira	1:59.832	—	+0.193	Medium	8
Maverick Viñales	1:59.908	+0.076	+0.292	Medium	6
Alex Rins	2:00.047*	+0.215	+0.217	Medium	3
Brad Binder	2:00.056*	+0.224	+0.327	Medium	3
Joan Mir	2:00.100	+0.268	+0.562	Medium	7
Enea Bastianini	2:00.442	+0.610	+0.319	Medium	7
Luca Marini	2:00.468*	+0.636	+0.308	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	2:00.535*	+0.703	+0.221	Medium	4
Aleix Espargaro	2:00.536*	+0.704	+0.209	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	2:00.657	+0.825	+0.356	Medium	5
Johann Zarco	2:00.858*	+1.026	+0.344	Medium	4
Andrea Dovizioso	2:00.934*	+1.102	+0.226	Medium	4
Pol Espargaro	2:00.936*	+1.104	+0.406	Medium	4
Raul Fernandez	2:02.584*	+2.752	+0.667	Medium	4

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marco Bezzecchi	56%	2 ✓
2	Enea Bastianini	41%	1 ✓
3	Franco Morbidelli	33%	10
4	Miguel Oliveira	20%	3
5	Alex Marquez	18%	7
6	Pol Espargaro	10%	9
7	Andrea Dovizioso	8%	14
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	4%	5
9	Brad Binder	2%	4
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	11
11	Remy Gardner	4%	6
12	Stefan Bradl	2%	8
13	Raul Fernandez	1%	12
14	Darryn Binder	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Aleix Espargaro	36%	65%	89%	6
2	Jorge Martin	25%	52%	83%	9
3	Jack Miller	15%	49%	79%	3
4	Johann Zarco	4%	32%	68%	1
5	Maverick Viñales	4%	27%	53%	2
6	Fabio Quartararo	6%	23%	55%	4
7	Francesco Bagnaia	1%	11%	39%	5
8	Joan Mir	2%	12%	37%	12
9	Luca Marini	2%	8%	27%	10
10	Alex Rins	2%	8%	25%	11
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	11%	28%	7
12	Enea Bastianini	1%	4%	18%	8

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Stefan Bradl	18	21	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #6 & long lap penalty for rider #20

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Johann Zarco	1	29%	58%	72%	81%	17%	—
Maverick Viñales	2	23%	57%	74%	87%	11%	2
Jack Miller	3	13%	39%	57%	72%	25%	3
Fabio Quartararo	4	12%	40%	61%	83%	14%	8
Francesco Bagnaia	5	5%	24%	42%	65%	30%	1
Aleix Espargaro	6	6%	22%	40%	69%	25%	9
Marco Bezzecchi	7	4%	16%	35%	66%	24%	10
Enea Bastianini	8	3%	13%	31%	68%	20%	4
Jorge Martin	9	2%	8%	20%	55%	30%	5
Luca Marini	10	1%	8%	22%	73%	3%	12
Alex Rins	11	1%	4%	13%	52%	22%	7
Joan Mir	12	0%	3%	10%	48%	20%	—
Miguel Oliveira	13	0%	3%	8%	41%	19%	6
Brad Binder	14	0%	1%	5%	36%	15%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	15	0%	1%	3%	25%	24%	22
Remy Gardner	16	0%	1%	3%	24%	13%	18
Alex Marquez	17	0%	0%	1%	15%	25%	17
Pol Espargaro	18	0%	1%	1%	13%	20%	14
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	17%	15
Takaaki Nakagami	20	0%	0%	1%	7%	15%	13
Stefan Bradl	21	0%	0%	0%	5%	19%	19
Raul Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	21%	21
Darryn Binder	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	20
Andrea Dovizioso	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	12%	16

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.50%	Pedro Acosta +0.52%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.28%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S3	Ai Ogura +0.14%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.36%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Raul Fernandez +0.12%	Marc Marquez +0.28%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Raul Fernandez +0.19%
S3	Raul Fernandez +0.00%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Ai Ogura +0.09%
S4	Alex Marquez +0.14%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.19%	Alex Marquez +0.40%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.06%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Marc Marquez +0.27%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Fermin Aldeguer +0.42%	Marc Marquez +0.44%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.37%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.17%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.22%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.29%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.19%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24%	Enea Bastianini +0.27%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.04%	Aleix Espargaro +0.05%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.10%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Aleix Espargaro +0.51%	Luca Marini +0.56%	Jorge Martin +0.68%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.41%	Miguel Oliveira +0.45%
S3	Brad Binder +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Johann Zarco +0.24%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.08%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Alex Rins +0.05%	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Alex Rins +0.11%	Maverick Viñales +0.14%	Jack Miller +0.28%
S3	Johann Zarco +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.30%	Maverick Viñales +0.32%
S4	Johann Zarco +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Pol Espargaro +0.41%	Aleix Espargaro +0.41%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.20%	Jack Miller +0.21%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.09%	Aleix Espargaro +0.31%	Jack Miller +0.37%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.15%	Aleix Espargaro +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.32%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.16%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Marc Marquez +0.17%	Alex Rins +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Cal Crutchlow +0.28%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.49%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Andrea Dovizioso +0.30%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.25%	Maverick Viñales +0.30%
S4	Maverick Viñales	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%	Johann Zarco +0.55%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

48/100

Position index

Pole wins

38%

Front row on the podium

0.72

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).

Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	172	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	151	−21
3	Johann Zarco	114	−58
4	Francesco Bagnaia	106	−66
5	Enea Bastianini	105	−67
6	Brad Binder	93	−79

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/20

Laps led by the winner

Fabio Quartararo

2.663 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Iker Lecuona, from P18 to P7.

Longest battle: Enea Bastianini vs Luca Marini (14 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	2:00.805	—	+0.275	Medium	17
Alex Rins	2:00.956	+0.151	+0.217	Medium	18
Jack Miller	2:00.960	+0.155	+0.105	Medium	17
Aleix Espargaro	2:01.002	+0.197	+0.209	Medium	18
Joan Mir	2:01.130	+0.325	+0.562	Medium	16
Pol Espargaro	2:01.195	+0.390	+0.406	Soft	17
Brad Binder	2:01.260	+0.455	+0.327	Medium	17
Alex Marquez	2:01.330	+0.525	+0.356	Soft	15
Danilo Petrucci	2:01.339	+0.534	+0.574	Medium	18
Iker Lecuona	2:01.346	+0.541	+0.094	Medium	15

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Raul FernandezAprilia
2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
2024Enea BastianiniDucati
2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
2019Alex RinsSuzuki
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 16% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/23	30%
2025	3/22	14%
2024	4/22	18%
2023	5/22	23%
2022	2/24	8%
2021	2/21	10%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	80%	+0.45%	+0.024	1	3	10.1
Soft	20%	+0.44%	+0.065	0	0	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.