Round 14 of 20 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2022

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

02.09 – 04.09.2022

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:43.199	25
2	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.034	20
3	Maverick Viñales	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+4.212	16
4	Luca Marini	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+5.283	13
5	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+5.771	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.230	10
7	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+12.496	9
8	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+14.661	8
9	Jorge Martin	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+17.732	7
10	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+21.986	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.685	5
12	Andrea Dovizioso	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+29.276	4
13	Raul Fernandez	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+30.433	3
14	Stefan Bradl	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+31.768	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+32.547	1
16	Darryn Binder	Yamaha	WithU Yamaha RNF MotoGP Team	+41.857	0
17	Marco Bezzecchi	Ducati	Mooney VR46 Racing Team	+50.559	0
18	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+53.371	0
19	Remy Gardner	KTM	Tech3 KTM Factory Racing	+56.613	0
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Gresini Racing MotoGP	+57.304	0
21	Kazuki Watanabe	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+0.000	0
DNF	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Aruba.it Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jack Miller · 25%	Francesco Bagnaia · 6% · from P5	0.53 / 0.53	3.8 / 3.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Enea Bastianini	1:32.486	—	+0.319	Medium	22
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.489	+0.003	+0.221	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.524	+0.038	+0.275	Medium	21
Maverick Viñales	1:32.600	+0.114	+0.292	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:32.606	+0.120	+0.308	Medium	25
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.756	+0.270	+0.209	Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:32.832	+0.346	+0.217	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:32.873	+0.387	+0.327	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:32.952	+0.466	+0.457	Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:33.117	+0.631	+0.356	Medium	21
Miguel Oliveira	1:33.138	+0.652	+0.193	Medium	20
Marco Bezzecchi	1:33.141	+0.655	+0.553	Medium	23
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:33.280	+0.794	+0.320	Medium	21
Stefan Bradl	1:33.411	+0.925	+0.530	Medium	23
Raul Fernandez	1:33.432	+0.946	+0.667	Medium	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.540	+1.054	+0.226	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:33.561	+1.075	+0.359	Medium	23
Darryn Binder	1:33.700	+1.214	+0.272	Medium	23
Jack Miller	1:33.737	+1.251	+0.105	Medium	21
Remy Gardner	1:34.511	+2.025	+1.660	Medium	20
Kazuki Watanabe	1:35.869	+3.383	+0.173	Medium	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

25/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.034 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Raul Fernandez, from P25 to P13.

Longest battle: Francesco Bagnaia vs Maverick Viñales (19 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:41	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:00:41	Michele Pirro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:00:41	Pol Espargaro	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:26	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:53	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:05	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:04:20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:30:51	Remy Gardner	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:39:16	Miguel Oliveira	Long lap	Long lap penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race	14:43:52	Kazuki Watanabe	Time penalty	3 seconds penalty due to exceeding track limit
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #63

Race: 16 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Remy Gardner	24	18	+6
Darryn Binder	21	17	+4
Raul Fernandez	25	21	+4
Marco Bezzecchi	3	5	−2
Franco Morbidelli	11	12	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Raul Fernandez	25→13	+5.2
Francesco Bagnaia	5→1	+4.4
Brad Binder	15→8	+3.8
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14→20	−8.8
Marco Bezzecchi	3→17	−12.9
Jack Miller	1→18	−15.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.71%	−0.020	1	3	11.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.4 °C

Air

max 25.6 °C

69%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

8 km/h

Wind

gusts 22 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.313	—	23	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:33.198	+0.30%	14	Medium
2	Jack Miller	01:32.537	+0.224	23	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.759	+0.91%	14	Medium
3	Michele Pirro	01:32.693	+0.380	19	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.917	—	5	Soft
4	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.698	+0.385	18	297.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.706	+0.393	20	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:33.388	+0.51%	13	Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.752	+0.439	21	300.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Enea Bastianini	01:32.838	+0.525	19	300.8	Medium / Medium	1:33.774	+0.92%	13	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:32.858	+0.545	22	298.3	Soft / Medium	1:34.553	+1.76%	6	Medium
9	Luca Marini	01:32.981	+0.668	20	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.992	+2.23%	5	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:32.999	+0.686	21	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.248	+1.43%	6	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:33.105	+0.792	21	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.519	+1.72%	5	Medium
12	Brad Binder	01:33.207	+0.894	24	296.7	Medium / Medium	1:34.171	+1.35%	15	Medium
13	Marco Bezzecchi	01:33.218	+0.905	21	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:34.220	+1.40%	13	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:33.253	+0.940	22	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:34.133	+1.31%	7	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.314	+1.001	19	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:35.341	+2.61%	5	Medium
16	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.435	+1.122	20	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.486	+1.69%	12	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.562	+1.249	24	293.4	Soft / Medium	1:34.754	+1.98%	11	Medium
18	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.636	+1.323	21	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.248	+1.43%	6	Medium
19	Raul Fernandez	01:33.687	+1.374	21	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:36.890	+4.28%	6	Medium
20	Jorge Martin	01:33.830	+1.517	21	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.402	+1.60%	5	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:33.855	+1.542	20	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:34.889	+2.12%	10	Medium
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.897	+1.584	20	298.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.257	+1.44%	11	Medium
23	Remy Gardner	01:34.165	+1.852	18	292.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.836	+2.523	18	294.2	Soft / Medium	—			—
—	Kazuki Watanabe	01:37.294	+4.981	23	291.8	Soft / Soft	1:39.420	+7.00%	16	Soft

FP2 · 02.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:31.517	—	19	299.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.631	+0.114	13	299.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:31.702	+0.185	19	296.7	Soft / Soft	1:32.814	+0.45%	5	Medium
4	Johann Zarco	01:31.837	+0.320	17	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.368	+1.05%	6	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.843	+0.326	21	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:32.436	+0.04%	12	Medium
6	Maverick Viñales	01:31.882	+0.365	20	298.3	Hard / Medium	1:32.397	—	7	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:31.929	+0.412	20	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:33.016	+0.67%	7	Medium
8	Jorge Martin	01:32.166	+0.649	19	296.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.102	+0.76%	6	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.191	+0.674	21	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:32.759	+0.39%	11	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.242	+0.725	18	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:33.368	+1.05%	7	Medium
11	Pol Espargaro	01:32.301	+0.784	19	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:33.161	+0.83%	5	Medium
12	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.330	+0.813	17	295.0	Hard / Medium	1:32.872	+0.51%	6	Medium
13	Brad Binder	01:32.358	+0.841	19	295.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Alex Rins	01:32.365	+0.848	17	295.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	01:32.418	+0.901	21	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:32.940	+0.59%	10	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.566	+1.049	21	291.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.888	+0.53%	5	Medium
17	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.656	+1.139	17	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
18	Michele Pirro	01:32.673	+1.156	19	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Luca Marini	01:32.749	+1.232	19	298.3	Hard / Medium	1:33.477	+1.17%	8	Medium
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.894	+1.377	22	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.072	+0.73%	5	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:32.978	+1.461	19	291.8	Hard / Medium	1:34.017	+1.75%	5	Medium
22	Raul Fernandez	01:33.200	+1.683	19	292.6	Hard / Soft	1:34.026	+1.76%	4	Soft
23	Remy Gardner	01:33.559	+2.042	17	289.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
24	Darryn Binder	01:33.608	+2.091	19	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
25	Kazuki Watanabe	01:36.019	+4.502	23	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:36.828	+4.80%	15	Soft

FP3 · 03.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:31.296	—	21	295.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.367	+0.071	20	300.8	Hard / Soft	1:32.594	—	5	Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.644	+0.348	22	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.719	+1.22%	6	Soft
4	Alex Rins	01:31.707	+0.411	22	295.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:31.844	+0.548	20	297.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.937	+0.641	17	295.0	Hard / Soft	1:33.131	+0.58%	5	Soft
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.955	+0.659	19	297.5	Hard / Soft	1:33.099	+0.55%	10	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.956	+0.660	20	300.0	Hard / Soft	1:32.893	+0.32%	9	Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:32.075	+0.779	16	295.0	Hard / Soft	—			—
10	Luca Marini	01:32.076	+0.780	18	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.166	+0.62%	7	Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:32.122	+0.826	21	299.1	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Michele Pirro	01:32.263	+0.967	19	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.966	+0.40%	5	Medium
13	Johann Zarco	01:32.350	+1.054	19	297.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
14	Enea Bastianini	01:32.395	+1.099	17	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.417	+1.121	18	295.8	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	01:32.462	+1.166	20	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.464	+1.168	20	295.8	Hard / Soft	1:33.215	+0.67%	7	Medium
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.506	+1.210	20	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Brad Binder	01:32.520	+1.224	21	297.5	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.716	+1.420	21	295.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
21	Jorge Martin	01:32.975	+1.679	20	298.3	Hard / Soft	1:33.971	+1.49%	6	Soft
22	Darryn Binder	01:33.240	+1.944	19	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Raul Fernandez	01:33.340	+2.044	20	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:34.111	+1.64%	5	Soft
24	Remy Gardner	01:33.378	+2.082	19	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
25	Kazuki Watanabe	01:35.683	+4.387	22	291.1	Medium / Soft	1:36.316	+4.02%	11	Medium

FP4 · 03.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:32.295	—	11	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.823	—	7	Medium
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.331	+0.036	15	296.7	Hard / Medium	1:33.328	+0.54%	9	Medium
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.419	+0.124	9	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.866	+0.05%	6	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.438	+0.143	16	296.7	Hard / missing	1:33.162	+0.37%	5	Medium
5	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.548	+0.253	14	298.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.401	+0.62%	6	Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.571	+0.276	16	294.2	Hard / Soft	1:33.943	+1.21%	6	Soft
7	Johann Zarco	01:32.573	+0.278	16	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.770	+1.02%	10	Soft
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.577	+0.282	12	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.701	+2.02%	5	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	01:32.704	+0.409	12	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Brad Binder	01:32.775	+0.480	16	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.372	+0.59%	8	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:32.793	+0.498	13	294.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:32.820	+0.525	13	296.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.914	+0.619	15	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.722	+0.97%	5	Medium
14	Alex Marquez	01:33.009	+0.714	14	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:34.290	+1.58%	5	Soft
15	Luca Marini	01:33.064	+0.769	12	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.140	+0.845	15	291.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.144	+0.849	10	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:34.588	+1.90%	7	Medium
18	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:33.145	+0.850	9	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:33.915	+1.18%	5	Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:33.312	+1.017	12	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:38.928	+6.58%	8	Soft
20	Raul Fernandez	01:33.318	+1.023	12	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:36.102	+3.53%	5	Medium
21	Stefan Bradl	01:33.410	+1.115	15	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.865	+2.20%	5	Soft
22	Michele Pirro	01:33.682	+1.387	6	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:33.838	+1.543	15	293.4	Medium / Soft	1:34.647	+1.97%	7	Soft
24	Darryn Binder	01:34.727	+2.432	12	291.1	Soft / Soft	1:35.162	+2.52%	6	Soft
25	Kazuki Watanabe	01:35.899	+3.604	11	291.1	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 03.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.961	—	7	300.8	Hard / Soft
2	Luca Marini	01:32.004	+0.043	8	298.3	Soft / Soft
3	Jorge Martin	01:32.015	+0.054	7	298.3	Hard / Soft
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.276	+0.315	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
5	Brad Binder	01:32.600	+0.639	7	295.8	Hard / Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:32.631	+0.670	5	295.8	Hard / Soft
7	Michele Pirro	01:32.658	+0.697	7	295.8	Soft / Soft
8	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.663	+0.702	7	293.4	Hard / Soft
9	Pol Espargaro	01:32.826	+0.865	6	295.0	Hard / Soft
10	Stefan Bradl	01:32.838	+0.877	8	295.8	Medium / Soft
11	Darryn Binder	01:33.331	+1.370	5	294.2	Hard / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.484	+1.523	8	293.4	Medium / Soft
13	Kazuki Watanabe	01:36.289	+4.328	6	291.8	Medium / Soft
14	Remy Gardner	01:44.690	+12.729	8	292.6	Hard / Soft
15	Raul Fernandez	01:46.732	+14.771	6	292.6	Hard / Soft

Q2 · 03.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:31.899	—	9	299.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.833	+0.02%	5	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.914	+0.015	9	299.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Enea Bastianini	01:32.014	+0.115	9	300.0	Soft / Soft	1:33.812	—	5	Soft
4	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.048	+0.149	9	299.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.304	+0.52%	6	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.118	+0.219	9	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:32.169	+0.270	9	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Luca Marini	01:32.226	+0.327	9	298.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.790	+1.04%	4	Soft
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.246	+0.347	9	296.7	Medium / missing	—			—
9	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.577	+0.678	9	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.775	+0.876	10	295.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.624	+0.87%	8	Soft
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.351	+1.452	8	294.2	Soft / Soft	1:35.144	+1.42%	5	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:33.438	+1.539	9	295.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 04.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Enea Bastianini	01:31.944	—	12	300.0	Hard / Soft	1:32.410	+0.17%	8	Soft
2	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.010	+0.066	13	301.6	Hard / Medium	1:32.258	—	6	Medium
3	Luca Marini	01:32.065	+0.121	12	300.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.855	+0.65%	8	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.118	+0.174	12	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.410	+0.17%	6	Medium
5	Maverick Viñales	01:32.186	+0.242	13	298.3	Hard / Medium	1:33.048	+0.86%	8	Medium
6	Jorge Martin	01:32.231	+0.287	13	300.8	Hard / Medium	1:32.545	+0.31%	7	Medium
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.254	+0.310	13	300.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.632	+1.49%	9	Medium
8	Brad Binder	01:32.318	+0.374	13	299.1	Hard / Medium	1:32.945	+0.75%	8	Medium
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:32.481	+0.537	12	302.5	Hard / Medium	1:32.868	+0.66%	6	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:32.580	+0.636	12	297.5	Hard / Medium	1:34.523	+2.46%	8	Medium
11	Jack Miller	01:32.581	+0.637	12	300.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.114	+0.93%	5	Medium
12	Johann Zarco	01:32.624	+0.680	12	300.0	Hard / Medium	1:33.083	+0.89%	7	Medium
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.651	+0.707	13	294.2	Hard / Medium	1:32.929	+0.73%	8	Medium
14	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.726	+0.782	11	295.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
15	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.802	+0.858	12	296.7	Hard / Soft	—			—
16	Alex Marquez	01:32.809	+0.865	11	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.076	+0.89%	6	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.910	+0.966	12	294.2	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Michele Pirro	01:33.004	+1.060	10	297.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Pol Espargaro	01:33.010	+1.066	11	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
20	Raul Fernandez	01:33.106	+1.162	13	295.8	Hard / Medium	1:33.411	+1.25%	6	Medium
21	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.274	+1.330	12	293.4	Hard / Soft	1:35.937	+3.99%	6	Soft
22	Darryn Binder	01:33.276	+1.332	10	294.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Remy Gardner	01:33.418	+1.474	13	293.4	Hard / Medium	1:33.753	+1.62%	7	Medium
24	Stefan Bradl	01:33.423	+1.479	11	294.2	Hard / Medium	—			—
25	Kazuki Watanabe	01:35.982	+4.038	12	291.1	Medium / Medium	1:36.631	+4.74%	7	Medium

Race · 04.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	41:43.199	25	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.489	+0.00%	22	Medium
2	Enea Bastianini	+0.034	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.486	—	22	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	+4.212	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.600	+0.12%	22	Medium
4	Luca Marini	+5.283	13	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.606	+0.13%	25	Medium
5	Fabio Quartararo	+5.771	11	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.524	+0.04%	21	Medium
6	Aleix Espargaro	+10.230	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.756	+0.29%	24	Medium
7	Alex Rins	+12.496	9	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.832	+0.37%	22	Medium
8	Brad Binder	+14.661	8	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.873	+0.42%	22	Medium
9	Jorge Martin	+17.732	7	27	Hard / Medium	1:32.952	+0.50%	22	Medium
10	Alex Marquez	+21.986	6	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.117	+0.68%	21	Medium
11	Miguel Oliveira	+23.685	5	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.138	+0.71%	20	Medium
12	Andrea Dovizioso	+29.276	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.540	+1.14%	22	Medium
13	Raul Fernandez	+30.433	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.432	+1.02%	21	Medium
14	Stefan Bradl	+31.768	2	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.411	+1.00%	23	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	+32.547	1	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.561	+1.16%	23	Medium
16	Darryn Binder	+41.857	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.700	+1.31%	23	Medium
17	Marco Bezzecchi	+50.559	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.141	+0.71%	23	Medium
18	Jack Miller	+53.371	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.737	+1.35%	21	Medium
19	Remy Gardner	+56.613	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:34.511	+2.19%	20	Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+57.304	0	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.280	+0.86%	21	Medium
21	Kazuki Watanabe	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:35.869	+3.66%	20	Medium
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		0	2	Hard / Medium	—			—
Out on lap 1	Johann Zarco		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Michele Pirro		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Pol Espargaro		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:33.068*	—	+0.275	Medium	4
Michele Pirro	1:33.104*	+0.036	+0.267	Medium	4
Stefan Bradl	1:33.405	+0.337	+0.530	Medium	5
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.542*	+0.474	+0.226	Medium	4
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:33.605*	+0.537	+0.320	Medium	3
Kazuki Watanabe	1:36.190	+3.122	+0.173	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Di Giannantonio	57%	4
2	Marco Bezzecchi	42%	1 ✓
3	Pol Espargaro	32%	9
4	Luca Marini	21%	2 ✓
5	Alex Marquez	18%	6
6	Jorge Martin	9%	3
7	Michele Pirro	8%	7
8	Brad Binder	4%	5
9	Stefan Bradl	2%	10
10	Takaaki Nakagami	3%	12
11	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	8
12	Raul Fernandez	2%	15
13	Darryn Binder	1%	11
14	Remy Gardner	0%	14
15	Kazuki Watanabe	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jack Miller	35%	64%	90%	1
2	Francesco Bagnaia	25%	52%	83%	2
3	Enea Bastianini	15%	49%	79%	3
4	Fabio Quartararo	4%	32%	68%	8
5	Alex Rins	4%	28%	53%	12
6	Johann Zarco	6%	23%	56%	6
7	Maverick Viñales	1%	11%	39%	5
8	Aleix Espargaro	2%	12%	36%	9
9	Franco Morbidelli	2%	8%	27%	11
10	Miguel Oliveira	2%	8%	25%	10
11	Marco Bezzecchi	3%	11%	28%	4
12	Luca Marini	1%	4%	18%	7

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Francesco Bagnaia	2	5	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #63

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jack Miller	1	25%	52%	66%	74%	24%	18
Enea Bastianini	2	20%	48%	63%	76%	22%	2
Marco Bezzecchi	3	16%	43%	60%	76%	22%	17
Maverick Viñales	4	13%	41%	62%	85%	11%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	5	6%	23%	41%	65%	29%	1
Johann Zarco	6	6%	25%	45%	76%	18%	—
Luca Marini	7	5%	22%	45%	87%	3%	4
Fabio Quartararo	8	3%	15%	32%	74%	13%	5
Aleix Espargaro	9	2%	8%	21%	60%	24%	6
Miguel Oliveira	10	1%	7%	18%	60%	18%	11
Franco Morbidelli	11	1%	5%	14%	54%	18%	—
Alex Rins	12	1%	3%	9%	43%	22%	7
Jorge Martin	13	1%	3%	7%	35%	28%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	14	0%	2%	5%	31%	22%	20
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	4%	30%	14%	8
Alex Marquez	16	0%	1%	2%	21%	24%	10
Michele Pirro	17	0%	0%	2%	16%	19%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	18	0%	0%	1%	13%	12%	12
Pol Espargaro	19	0%	0%	1%	9%	20%	—
Stefan Bradl	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	19%	14
Darryn Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	27%	16
Takaaki Nakagami	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	15
Kazuki Watanabe	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	21
Remy Gardner	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	11%	19
Raul Fernandez	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	19%	13

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2022

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Fabio Quartararo	200	—
2	Aleix Espargaro	168	−32
3	Francesco Bagnaia	156	−44
4	Johann Zarco	125	−75
5	Jack Miller	123	−77
6	Enea Bastianini	118	−82

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2021 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

0.364 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P12 to P3.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Franco Morbidelli (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2021 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.615	—	+0.275	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:32.709	+0.094	+0.217	Medium	12
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.742	+0.127	+0.221	Soft	24
Enea Bastianini	1:32.756	+0.141	+0.319	Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:32.824	+0.209	+0.562	Medium	22
Aleix Espargaro	1:32.896	+0.281	+0.209	Soft	25
Marc Marquez	1:32.939	+0.324	+0.210	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:32.985	+0.370	+0.105	Soft	21
Pol Espargaro	1:32.988	+0.373	+0.406	Medium	25
Brad Binder	1:33.053	+0.438	+0.327	Medium	22

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2021 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	54%	+0.50%	−0.007	1	2	9.8
Medium	46%	+0.97%	−0.022	0	1	12.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.