Round 5 of 18 Aftermath

French Grand Prix 2021

4.185 m · 27 laps · since 1969

14.05 – 16.05.2021

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jack Miller	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	47:25.473	25
2	Johann Zarco	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+3.970	20
3	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+14.468	16
4	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+16.172	13
5	Danilo Petrucci	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+21.430	11
6	Alex Marquez	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+23.509	10
7	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+30.164	9
8	Pol Espargaro	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+35.221	8
9	Iker Lecuona	KTM	Tech 3 KTM Factory Racing	+40.432	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP	+40.577	6
11	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+42.198	5
12	Luca Marini	Ducati	SKY VR46 Avintia	+52.408	4
13	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+59.377	3
14	Enea Bastianini	Ducati	Avintia Esponsorama	+62.224	2
15	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Pramac Racing	+69.651	1
16	Franco Morbidelli	Yamaha	Petronas Yamaha SRT	+0.000	0
DNF	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	Retired	0
DNF	Lorenzo Savadori	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Miguel Oliveira	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Fabio Quartararo · 28%	Jack Miller · 14% · from P3	0.44 / 0.44	4.1 / 4.1

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Johann Zarco	1:42.737	—	+0.344	Wet-Medium	22
Iker Lecuona	1:43.133	+0.396	+0.094	Wet-Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:43.184	+0.447	+0.221	Wet-Medium	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:43.878	+1.141	+0.574	Wet-Medium	23
Tito Rabat	1:44.162	+1.425	+0.229	Wet-Medium	20
Enea Bastianini	1:44.238	+1.501	+0.319	Wet-Medium	22
Alex Marquez	1:44.398	+1.661	+0.356	Wet-Soft	23
Jack Miller	1:44.510	+1.773	+0.105	Wet-Soft	23
Fabio Quartararo	1:44.759	+2.022	+0.275	Wet-Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:44.778	+2.041	+0.210	Wet-Medium	12
Pol Espargaro	1:45.030	+2.293	+0.406	Wet-Soft	22
Luca Marini	1:45.063	+2.326	+0.308	Wet-Medium	22
Valentino Rossi	1:45.209	+2.472	+0.508	Wet-Soft	23
Takaaki Nakagami	1:45.297	+2.560	+0.359	Wet-Soft	22
Maverick Viñales	1:45.474	+2.737	+0.292	Wet-Soft	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:45.921	+3.184	+0.193	Wet-Soft	7
Brad Binder	1:45.975	+3.238	+0.327	Wet-Soft	23
Franco Morbidelli	1:46.650	+3.913	+0.512	Wet-Soft	18
Lorenzo Savadori	1:46.725	+3.988	+0.781	Wet-Soft	7
Alex Rins	1:46.768	+4.031	+0.217	Wet-Soft	7
Aleix Espargaro	1:46.924	+4.187	+0.209	Wet-Soft	11

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

160

Overtakes

Lead changes

4 leaders

18/27

Laps led by the winner

Jack Miller

3.970 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P19 to P6.

Longest battle: Maverick Viñales vs Valentino Rossi (8 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:17		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:01:52	Franco Morbidelli	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:24		Red flag	White flag displayed
Race	14:09:06	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:27	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:12:32	Jack Miller	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to speeding in pit lane
Race	14:12:32	Francesco Bagnaia	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to speeding in pit lane
Race	14:14:37	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:19:59	Fabio Quartararo	Long lap	Long lap penalty
Race	14:22:44	Miguel Oliveira	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:24:15	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:31:54	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jack Miller (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	15	6	+9
Iker Lecuona	18	12	+6
Aleix Espargaro	13	7	+6
Johann Zarco	5	10	−5
Luca Marini	12	17	−5
Valentino Rossi	9	13	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Francesco Bagnaia	16→4	+8.5
Alex Marquez	19→6	+8.4
Danilo Petrucci	17→5	+8.1
Valentino Rossi	9→11	−3.0
Maverick Viñales	2→10	−6.5
Franco Morbidelli	4→16	−11.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	55%	+12.70%	+0.096	1	1	9.0
Wet-Medium	41%	+11.06%	+0.063	0	2	8.0
Soft	5%	0.00%	—	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

14.8 °C

Air

max 15.4 °C

61%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

31 km/h

Wind

gusts 66 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 14.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	01:38.007	—	14	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:44.369	+1.87%	5	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	01:39.488	+1.481	18	308.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.551	+2.05%	10	Wet-Soft
3	Joan Mir	01:40.069	+2.062	13	297.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
4	Pol Espargaro	01:40.115	+2.108	16	305.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.789	+4.23%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:40.121	+2.114	18	305.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.454	—	4	Wet-Soft
6	Lorenzo Savadori	01:40.244	+2.237	18	291.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:46.442	+3.89%	6	Wet-Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:40.256	+2.249	22	307.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:44.398	+1.90%	14	Wet-Soft
8	Miguel Oliveira	01:40.582	+2.575	16	301.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:43.382	+0.91%	10	Wet-Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:40.679	+2.672	16	308.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:41.029	+3.022	14	299.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:43.904	+1.42%	8	Wet-Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:41.258	+3.251	19	305.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.206	+1.71%	4	Wet-Soft
12	Maverick Viñales	01:41.299	+3.292	14	300.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.289	+2.77%	7	Wet-Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:41.423	+3.416	21	295.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.706	+3.17%	14	Wet-Soft
14	Valentino Rossi	01:41.524	+3.517	20	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.534	+3.01%	15	Wet-Soft
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:41.576	+3.569	17	304.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.014	+5.43%	5	Wet-Soft
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:41.641	+3.634	21	299.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.988	+3.45%	15	Wet-Soft
17	Iker Lecuona	01:42.500	+4.493	18	297.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.504	+2.98%	10	Wet-Soft
18	Brad Binder	01:42.899	+4.892	19	298.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.758	+4.20%	13	Wet-Soft
19	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.045	+5.038	12	294.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:43.262	+5.255	18	285.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.667	+4.11%	11	Wet-Soft
21	Tito Rabat	01:43.469	+5.462	21	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.260	+2.74%	15	Wet-Soft
22	Enea Bastianini	01:43.644	+5.637	16	289.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.637	+6.04%	6	Wet-Soft

FP2 · 14.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:31.747	—	21	320.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.842	+0.095	16	315.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.136	+0.389	22	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.038	+0.78%	8	Soft
4	Pol Espargaro	01:32.137	+0.390	23	320.6	Soft / Soft	1:33.929	+0.66%	6	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.279	+0.532	21	310.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.059	+0.80%	5	Medium
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.296	+0.549	20	314.5	missing / missing	1:33.447	+0.15%	5	Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:32.361	+0.614	20	319.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.818	+1.62%	5	Soft
8	Marc Marquez	01:32.632	+0.885	19	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.663	+0.38%	5	Soft
9	Valentino Rossi	01:32.669	+0.922	24	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.080	+0.83%	11	Medium
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.711	+0.964	20	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.110	+0.86%	5	Soft
11	Alex Rins	01:32.762	+1.015	18	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.478	+0.18%	5	Soft
12	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.800	+1.053	12	320.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Joan Mir	01:32.908	+1.161	22	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.309	—	13	Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:32.946	+1.199	12	315.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Iker Lecuona	01:33.040	+1.293	20	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.123	+0.87%	7	Soft
16	Brad Binder	01:33.117	+1.370	20	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.967	+1.78%	5	Soft
17	Alex Marquez	01:33.204	+1.457	22	322.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.920	+1.73%	5	Soft
18	Tito Rabat	01:33.361	+1.614	22	312.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.899	+2.78%	6	Medium
19	Enea Bastianini	01:33.536	+1.789	16	316.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.524	+1.30%	10	Soft
20	Lorenzo Savadori	01:33.985	+2.238	21	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:36.718	+3.65%	5	Soft
21	Luca Marini	01:34.147	+2.400	20	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.895	+2.77%	5	Soft
22	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.520	+2.773	19	310.6	Soft / Medium	1:35.028	+1.84%	5	Soft

FP3 · 15.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:40.736	—	19	304.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:42.894	—	7	Wet-Medium
2	Lorenzo Savadori	01:41.349	+0.613	19	293.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.387	+2.42%	10	Wet-Soft
3	Francesco Bagnaia	01:41.452	+0.716	21	312.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.773	+2.80%	16	Wet-Soft
4	Miguel Oliveira	01:41.457	+0.721	20	303.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:45.063	+2.11%	15	Wet-Medium
5	Pol Espargaro	01:41.671	+0.935	18	311.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:41.775	+1.039	20	310.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.678	+2.71%	14	Wet-Soft
7	Joan Mir	01:41.817	+1.081	20	308.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.991	+2.04%	11	Wet-Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:42.055	+1.319	18	307.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:46.662	+3.66%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Iker Lecuona	01:42.136	+1.400	19	304.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:44.366	+1.43%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Luca Marini	01:42.323	+1.587	18	295.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.430	+4.41%	13	Wet-Soft
11	Alex Marquez	01:42.516	+1.780	19	309.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:48.312	+5.27%	6	Wet-Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:42.520	+1.784	20	310.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:47.151	+4.14%	10	Wet-Soft
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:42.532	+1.796	14	304.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.785	+2.81%	7	Wet-Soft
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.213	+2.477	21	302.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.952	+2.97%	9	Wet-Medium
15	Tito Rabat	01:43.462	+2.726	20	303.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.366	+5.32%	15	Wet-Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	01:43.546	+2.810	16	301.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.022	+2.07%	9	Wet-Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.700	+2.964	20	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.668	+3.67%	14	Wet-Soft
18	Enea Bastianini	01:43.740	+3.004	19	291.5	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:47.206	+4.19%	12	Wet-Soft
19	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.759	+3.023	21	303.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.175	+4.16%	15	Wet-Soft
20	Jack Miller	01:43.857	+3.121	5	307.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Valentino Rossi	01:44.016	+3.280	21	299.4	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.536	+3.54%	16	Wet-Soft
22	Brad Binder	01:44.123	+3.387	20	303.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:47.694	+4.67%	14	Wet-Soft

FP4 · 15.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.857	—	10	312.6	— / —	—			—
2	Alex Rins	01:32.864	+0.007	8	317.5	— / —	—			—
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.872	+0.015	12	309.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Pol Espargaro	01:32.904	+0.047	9	321.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.050	+0.05%	5	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:33.004	+0.147	10	315.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.020	+2.14%	6	Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.042	+0.185	11	314.5	— / —	—			—
7	Joan Mir	01:33.056	+0.199	9	318.5	— / —	—			—
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.320	+0.463	12	317.5	— / —	—			—
9	Alex Marquez	01:33.447	+0.590	11	323.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.862	+0.91%	6	Soft
10	Iker Lecuona	01:33.474	+0.617	14	313.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.006	—	6	Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:33.482	+0.625	10	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.835	+0.88%	6	Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:33.766	+0.909	12	316.5	— / —	—			—
13	Valentino Rossi	01:33.811	+0.954	12	311.6	— / —	—			—
14	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.905	+1.048	12	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
15	Brad Binder	01:33.944	+1.087	10	314.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.332	+0.35%	6	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	01:33.948	+1.091	14	319.6	Soft / Soft	1:37.063	+3.25%	5	Soft
17	Jack Miller	01:34.043	+1.186	13	320.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.135	+1.278	10	312.6	— / —	—			—
19	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.229	+1.372	11	309.6	— / —	—			—
20	Luca Marini	01:34.309	+1.452	12	317.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.461	+2.61%	6	Soft
21	Francesco Bagnaia	01:34.384	+1.527	16	320.6	Soft / Soft	1:37.293	+3.50%	11	Soft
22	Tito Rabat	01:34.542	+1.685	13	312.6	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 15.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Lorenzo Savadori	01:42.550	—	5	293.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
2	Luca Marini	01:43.352	+0.802	9	298.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.671	+1.00%	7	Wet-Soft
3	Aleix Espargaro	01:43.418	+0.868	9	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.620	—	5	Wet-Soft
4	Joan Mir	01:43.422	+0.872	9	304.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:45.799	+0.17%	6	Wet-Soft
5	Alex Rins	01:43.523	+0.973	9	305.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:45.832	+0.20%	5	Wet-Soft
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.530	+0.980	9	311.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.176	+0.53%	7	Wet-Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:43.857	+1.307	9	301.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:46.371	+0.71%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Iker Lecuona	01:44.324	+1.774	9	303.1	missing / missing	1:45.940	+0.30%	6	missing
9	Alex Marquez	01:45.146	+2.596	6	305.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
10	Tito Rabat	01:45.590	+3.040	7	300.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.447	+0.78%	4	Wet-Soft
11	Brad Binder	01:45.911	+3.361	8	301.2	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:47.156	+1.45%	4	Wet-Soft
12	Enea Bastianini	01:46.123	+3.573	8	291.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

Q2 · 15.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:32.600	—	9	311.6	Soft / Soft	1:35.077	—	5	Soft
2	Maverick Viñales	01:32.681	+0.081	9	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Jack Miller	01:32.704	+0.104	9	321.6	missing / missing	—			—
4	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.766	+0.166	9	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:36.592	+1.59%	6	Soft
5	Johann Zarco	01:32.877	+0.277	9	322.7	Soft / Soft	—			—
6	Marc Marquez	01:33.037	+0.437	8	312.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.120	+0.520	7	320.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Pol Espargaro	01:33.150	+0.550	8	319.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Valentino Rossi	01:33.391	+0.791	9	309.6	Soft / Soft	1:39.899	+5.07%	7	Soft
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:33.867	+1.267	6	310.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Lorenzo Savadori	01:34.258	+1.658	7	303.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Luca Marini	01:34.265	+1.665	9	318.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.706	+1.71%	5	Soft

Warm Up · 16.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Danilo Petrucci	01:44.515	—	11	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.007	+0.86%	8	Wet-Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:44.794	+0.279	11	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.282	+0.17%	8	Wet-Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.048	+0.533	11	296.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.098	—	7	Wet-Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:45.105	+0.590	10	294.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:48.677	+2.43%	5	Wet-Soft
5	Joan Mir	01:45.369	+0.854	8	298.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
6	Johann Zarco	01:45.369	+0.854	6	306.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
7	Valentino Rossi	01:45.370	+0.855	11	300.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.685	+1.50%	9	Wet-Soft
8	Iker Lecuona	01:45.443	+0.928	11	304.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.634	+0.51%	6	Wet-Soft
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.476	+0.961	11	294.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.632	+1.45%	7	Wet-Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:45.512	+0.997	11	303.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.398	+0.28%	8	Wet-Soft
11	Marc Marquez	01:45.822	+1.307	8	301.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.501	+2.27%	6	Wet-Soft
12	Brad Binder	01:46.058	+1.543	11	289.8	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.085	+1.87%	5	Wet-Soft
13	Fabio Quartararo	01:46.127	+1.612	11	302.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:47.480	+1.30%	8	Wet-Soft
14	Aleix Espargaro	01:46.176	+1.661	11	304.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.989	+0.84%	5	Wet-Soft
15	Luca Marini	01:46.237	+1.722	11	292.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:48.683	+2.44%	8	Wet-Soft
16	Alex Marquez	01:46.345	+1.830	11	300.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:49.728	+3.42%	5	Wet-Soft
17	Enea Bastianini	01:46.702	+2.187	11	293.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:49.047	+2.78%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Lorenzo Savadori	01:46.756	+2.241	11	284.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:48.141	+1.93%	5	Wet-Soft
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:46.986	+2.471	11	300.3	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	1:47.749	+1.56%	5	Wet-Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:47.530	+3.015	11	303.1	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Tito Rabat	01:47.957	+3.442	11	285.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:52.149	+5.70%	5	Wet-Soft
22	Pol Espargaro	01:48.251	+3.736	8	305.8	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—

Race · 16.05 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jack Miller	47:25.473	25	27	Soft / Soft	1:44.510	+1.73%	23	Wet-Soft
2	Johann Zarco	+3.970	20	27	Soft / Soft	1:42.737	—	22	Wet-Medium
3	Fabio Quartararo	+14.468	16	27	Soft / Soft	1:44.759	+1.97%	23	Wet-Medium
4	Francesco Bagnaia	+16.172	13	27	Soft / Soft	1:43.184	+0.44%	21	Wet-Medium
5	Danilo Petrucci	+21.430	11	27	Soft / Soft	1:43.878	+1.11%	23	Wet-Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+23.509	10	27	Soft / Soft	1:44.398	+1.62%	23	Wet-Soft
7	Takaaki Nakagami	+30.164	9	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.297	+2.49%	22	Wet-Soft
8	Pol Espargaro	+35.221	8	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.030	+2.23%	22	Wet-Soft
9	Iker Lecuona	+40.432	7	27	Soft / Soft	1:43.133	+0.39%	21	Wet-Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	+40.577	6	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.474	+2.66%	22	Wet-Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	+42.198	5	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.209	+2.41%	23	Wet-Soft
12	Luca Marini	+52.408	4	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.063	+2.26%	22	Wet-Medium
13	Brad Binder	+59.377	3	27	Soft / Soft	1:45.975	+3.15%	23	Wet-Soft
14	Enea Bastianini	+62.224	2	27	Soft / Soft	1:44.238	+1.46%	22	Wet-Medium
15	Tito Rabat	+69.651	1	27	Soft / Soft	1:44.162	+1.39%	20	Wet-Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	+0.000	0	23	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:46.650	+3.81%	18	Wet-Soft
Retired	Aleix Espargaro		0	15	Soft / Soft	1:46.924	+4.08%	11	Wet-Soft
Retired	Alex Rins		0	12	Soft / Soft	1:46.768	+3.92%	7	Wet-Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		0	4	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Lorenzo Savadori		0	11	Soft / Soft	1:46.725	+3.88%	7	Wet-Soft
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	17	Soft / Soft	1:44.778	+1.99%	12	Wet-Medium
Retired	Miguel Oliveira		0	12	Soft / Soft	1:45.921	+3.10%	7	Wet-Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Pending · no data yet

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alex Rins	58%	5
2	Francesco Bagnaia	42%	6
3	Joan Mir	32%	4
4	Aleix Espargaro	20%	3
5	Iker Lecuona	17%	8
6	Brad Binder	10%	11
7	Alex Marquez	8%	9
8	Tito Rabat	4%	10
9	Enea Bastianini	2%	12
10	Danilo Petrucci	3%	7
11	Lorenzo Savadori	3%	1 ✓
12	Luca Marini	1%	2 ✓

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Johann Zarco	37%	69%	92%	5
2	Fabio Quartararo	26%	51%	84%	1
3	Maverick Viñales	17%	49%	80%	2
4	Pol Espargaro	4%	33%	69%	8
5	Franco Morbidelli	4%	27%	54%	4
6	Miguel Oliveira	6%	22%	56%	10
7	Jack Miller	1%	11%	42%	3
8	Marc Marquez	2%	11%	35%	6
9	Valentino Rossi	1%	8%	29%	9
10	Takaaki Nakagami	2%	8%	22%	7
11	Lorenzo Savadori	1%	10%	25%	11
12	Luca Marini	0%	2%	16%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Fabio Quartararo	1	28%	57%	72%	83%	17%	3
Maverick Viñales	2	21%	52%	71%	86%	11%	10
Jack Miller	3	14%	38%	55%	72%	26%	1
Franco Morbidelli	4	10%	35%	56%	78%	19%	16
Johann Zarco	5	8%	28%	50%	77%	17%	2
Marc Marquez	6	6%	24%	45%	79%	13%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	7	4%	20%	40%	77%	14%	7
Pol Espargaro	8	3%	13%	28%	65%	20%	8
Valentino Rossi	9	2%	10%	24%	69%	12%	11
Miguel Oliveira	10	1%	7%	18%	63%	13%	—
Lorenzo Savadori	11	1%	4%	11%	49%	24%	—
Luca Marini	12	1%	4%	10%	50%	12%	12
Aleix Espargaro	13	0%	2%	6%	36%	25%	—
Joan Mir	14	0%	2%	5%	34%	17%	—
Alex Rins	15	0%	2%	4%	26%	19%	—
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	1%	2%	16%	34%	4
Danilo Petrucci	17	0%	1%	1%	14%	19%	5
Iker Lecuona	18	0%	0%	0%	8%	33%	9
Alex Marquez	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	26%	6
Tito Rabat	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	20%	15
Brad Binder	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	26%	13
Enea Bastianini	22	0%	0%	0%	3%	22%	14

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,197 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.46%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.52%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.26%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%	Pol Espargaro +0.45%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%	Augusto Fernandez +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Ai Ogura	Jorge Martin +0.35%	Marc Marquez +0.40%
S2	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.06%	Pedro Acosta +0.20%	Raul Fernandez +0.22%
S3	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.30%	Enea Bastianini +0.33%	Ai Ogura +0.33%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fermin Aldeguer +0.09%	Alex Marquez +0.15%	Marc Marquez +0.20%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.07%	Johann Zarco +0.22%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.48%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.20%	Alex Marquez +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Maverick Viñales +0.37%	Pedro Acosta +0.46%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.38%	Pedro Acosta +0.38%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.19%	Marc Marquez +0.29%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.24%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%	Aleix Espargaro +0.43%
S2	Johann Zarco	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Jack Miller +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Fabio Quartararo +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Alex Rins +0.30%	Fabio Quartararo +0.38%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Johann Zarco +0.22%	Aleix Espargaro +0.29%
S3	Jack Miller +0.07%	Aleix Espargaro +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Joan Mir +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pol Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.68%
S2	Franco Morbidelli	Jack Miller +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.31%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Johann Zarco +0.28%	Jack Miller +0.36%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Franco Morbidelli +0.53%	Maverick Viñales +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Cal Crutchlow	Fabio Quartararo +0.10%	Maverick Viñales +0.43%
S2	Franco Morbidelli +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.11%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.17%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Jack Miller +0.11%	Pol Espargaro +0.28%
S4	Franco Morbidelli +0.08%	Joan Mir +0.24%	Cal Crutchlow +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller +0.10%	Pol Espargaro +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%
S2	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Jack Miller +0.07%	Danilo Petrucci +0.10%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.21%	Jack Miller +0.27%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.13%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Franco Morbidelli +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.48%	Andrea Iannone +0.55%
S2	Johann Zarco +0.12%	Andrea Iannone +0.38%	Marc Marquez +0.49%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Andrea Iannone +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.09%	Valentino Rossi +0.11%	Andrea Iannone +0.16%

Fastest per sector: 2021

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

33/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.69

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Francesco Bagnaia	66	—
2	Fabio Quartararo	64	−2
3	Maverick Viñales	50	−16
4	Joan Mir	49	−17
5	Johann Zarco	48	−18
6	Jack Miller	39	−27

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2020 edition

101

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

26/26

Laps led by the winner

Danilo Petrucci

1.273 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Marquez, from P18 to P2.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Jack Miller (18 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2020 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:45.006	—	+0.356	Wet-Soft	24
Pol Espargaro	1:45.103	+0.097	+0.406	Wet-Soft	24
Takaaki Nakagami	1:45.167	+0.161	+0.359	Wet-Soft	24
Miguel Oliveira	1:45.186	+0.180	+0.193	Wet-Soft	24
Joan Mir	1:45.220	+0.214	+0.562	Wet-Medium	24
Alex Rins	1:45.318	+0.312	+0.217	Wet-Medium	21
Johann Zarco	1:45.356	+0.350	+0.344	Wet-Medium	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:45.498	+0.492	+0.574	Wet-Soft	24
Stefan Bradl	1:45.524	+0.518	+0.530	Wet-Soft	24
Andrea Dovizioso	1:45.538	+0.532	+0.226	Wet-Soft	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Jorge MartinAprilia
2025Johann ZarcoHonda
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Marco BezzecchiDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Jack MillerDucati
2020Danilo PetrucciDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	5/21	24%
2025	6/22	27%
2024	6/22	27%
2023	8/21	38%
2022	7/24	29%
2021	6/22	27%

Tyres at the last edition

2020 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Wet-Soft	86%	+0.71%	−0.208	1	3	8.0
Wet-Medium	14%	+0.30%	−0.271	0	0	8.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.