Round 13 of 19 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2018

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

07.09 – 09.09.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	42:05.426	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+2.822	20
3	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+7.269	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+14.687	13
5	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+16.016	11
6	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+17.408	10
7	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+19.086	9
8	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+21.804	8
9	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+23.919	7
10	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+27.559	6
11	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+30.698	5
12	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+32.941	4
13	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+33.461	3
14	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+35.686	2
15	Michele Pirro	Ducati	Ducati Team	+35.812	1
16	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+46.500	0
17	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	+46.614	0
18	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+50.593	0
19	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+55.168	0
20	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+62.255	0
21	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+69.475	0
22	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+72.608	0
23	Christophe Ponsson	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+0.000	0
DNF	Pol Espargaro	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Stefan Bradl	Honda	HRC Honda Team	Retired	0
DNF	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Lorenzo · 29%	Andrea Dovizioso · 13% · from P4	0.64 / 0.64	3.6 / 3.8

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.293	—	+0.226	Medium	25
Marc Marquez	1:33.299	+0.006	+0.210	Medium	23
Jorge Lorenzo	1:33.343	+0.050	+1.158	Medium	23
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.452	+0.159	+0.729	Medium	25
Alex Rins	1:33.866	+0.573	+0.217	Soft	24
Maverick Viñales	1:33.868	+0.575	+0.292	Medium	25
Daniel Pedrosa	1:33.896	+0.603	+0.089	Medium	25
Andrea Iannone	1:33.920	+0.627	+0.224	Soft	24
Valentino Rossi	1:33.990	+0.697	+0.508	Medium	25
Alvaro Bautista	1:34.117	+0.824	+0.086	Soft	25
Johann Zarco	1:34.258	+0.965	+0.344	Soft	24
Danilo Petrucci	1:34.338	+1.045	+0.574	Medium	25
Jack Miller	1:34.375	+1.082	+0.105	Medium	23
Stefan Bradl	1:34.453	+1.160	+0.530	Hard	15
Takaaki Nakagami	1:34.458	+1.165	+0.359	Medium	24
Aleix Espargaro	1:34.484	+1.191	+0.209	Soft	24
Michele Pirro	1:34.489	+1.196	+0.267	Soft	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.535	+1.242	+0.512	Medium	24
Bradley Smith	1:35.008	+1.715	+0.085	Soft	24
Hafizh Syahrin	1:35.148	+1.855	+0.491	Soft	25
Pol Espargaro	1:35.161	+1.868	+0.406	Soft	15
Scott Redding	1:35.447	+2.154	+0.263	Soft	24
Karel Abraham	1:35.504	+2.211	—	Soft	24
Thomas Luthi	1:35.752	+2.459	+0.237	Medium	22
Christophe Ponsson	1:38.008	+4.715	—	Soft	20

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

22/27

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

2.822 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P15 to P9.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (20 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:04:14		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:04:31	Xavier Simeon	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:23	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:05:56	Xavier Simeon	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:28:03	Stefan Bradl	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:29:29	Pol Espargaro	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:40:18	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Takaaki Nakagami	19	15	+4
Alex Rins	10	6	+4
Andrea Dovizioso	4	2	+2
Michele Pirro	14	20	−6
Danilo Petrucci	8	11	−3
Maverick Viñales	3	5	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Alex Rins	10→4	+4.6
Andrea Dovizioso	4→1	+3.8
Marc Marquez	5→2	+3.4
Scott Redding	21→21	−5.3
Jorge Lorenzo	1→17	−14.2
Jack Miller	2→18	−14.5

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	50%	+1.56%	+0.008	0	0	14.5
Medium	46%	+0.70%	−0.006	1	3	9.8
Hard	4%	+1.24%	−0.003	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

25.6 °C

Air

max 25.7 °C

69%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 24 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.608	—	20	295.5	Soft / Soft	1:33.274	+0.11%	5	Soft
2	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.709	+0.101	20	294.2	Medium / Soft	1:34.594	+1.53%	10	Medium
3	Maverick Viñales	01:32.739	+0.131	24	293.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.107	+1.01%	10	Medium
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.807	+0.199	19	294.3	Soft / Soft	1:33.169	—	5	Soft
5	Andrea Iannone	01:32.923	+0.315	21	291.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Jack Miller	01:33.193	+0.585	19	291.2	Medium / Soft	1:35.303	+2.29%	6	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.209	+0.601	21	295.5	Soft / Soft	1:35.155	+2.13%	11	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:33.241	+0.633	20	290.4	Soft / Soft	1:35.748	+2.77%	7	Medium
9	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.255	+0.647	21	293.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.674	+1.62%	11	Medium
10	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.304	+0.696	18	287.6	Medium / Soft	1:36.110	+3.16%	5	Medium
11	Scott Redding	01:33.322	+0.714	18	287.5	Soft / Hard	—			—
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.404	+0.796	22	290.9	Soft / Soft	1:34.751	+1.70%	13	Medium
13	Marc Marquez	01:33.406	+0.798	22	292.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.368	+1.29%	10	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:33.607	+0.999	20	291.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:33.615	+1.007	20	289.8	Soft / Medium	1:34.936	+1.90%	12	Medium
16	Michele Pirro	01:33.696	+1.088	20	292.3	Soft / Medium	1:35.032	+2.00%	11	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.843	+1.235	21	286.1	Medium / Medium	1:35.906	+2.94%	10	Medium
18	Bradley Smith	01:34.286	+1.678	20	289.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.544	+1.936	19	291.2	Medium / Medium	1:35.006	+1.97%	5	Medium
20	Stefan Bradl	01:34.584	+1.976	20	295.3	Medium / Medium	1:35.160	+2.14%	10	Medium
21	Pol Espargaro	01:34.614	+2.006	18	292.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Thomas Luthi	01:34.801	+2.193	21	288.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.899	+2.93%	7	Medium
23	Xavier Simeon	01:34.967	+2.359	18	287.3	Soft / Soft	—			—
24	Karel Abraham	01:35.077	+2.469	17	290.9	Medium / Soft	1:36.212	+3.27%	5	Medium
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:35.529	+2.921	20	291.6	Medium / Medium	1:36.936	+4.04%	14	Medium
—	Christophe Ponsson	01:40.038	+7.430	22	281.0	Soft / Soft	1:42.348	+9.85%	18	Soft

FP2 · 07.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.198	—	21	293.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.358	+0.160	18	292.7	Soft / Soft	1:33.656	+1.00%	5	Soft
3	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.385	+0.187	19	293.0	Medium / Soft	1:33.757	+1.11%	11	Medium
4	Maverick Viñales	01:32.411	+0.213	21	291.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
5	Marc Marquez	01:32.537	+0.339	22	295.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.732	—	4	Soft
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.722	+0.524	21	292.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.036	+1.41%	10	Medium
7	Alex Rins	01:32.775	+0.577	22	290.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.611	+2.03%	5	Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:32.786	+0.588	21	289.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.980	+0.782	19	288.8	Medium / Soft	1:34.769	+2.20%	5	Hard
10	Johann Zarco	01:32.985	+0.787	21	291.1	Soft / Soft	1:33.240	+0.55%	5	Soft
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.999	+0.801	22	294.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Michele Pirro	01:33.005	+0.807	17	292.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.438	+0.76%	4	Soft
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.183	+0.985	22	290.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.771	+2.20%	13	Soft
14	Jack Miller	01:33.193	+0.995	18	288.3	Soft / Soft	1:34.128	+1.51%	5	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.274	+1.076	19	285.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Andrea Iannone	01:33.423	+1.225	19	288.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Scott Redding	01:33.517	+1.319	16	285.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.654	+1.456	21	290.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.052	+1.42%	6	Soft
19	Stefan Bradl	01:33.660	+1.462	21	292.7	Medium / Soft	1:34.219	+1.60%	5	Medium
20	Bradley Smith	01:33.815	+1.617	19	287.6	Soft / Soft	1:34.745	+2.17%	5	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:33.878	+1.680	21	290.7	Medium / Soft	1:35.057	+2.51%	12	Soft
22	Xavier Simeon	01:33.896	+1.698	19	283.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Thomas Luthi	01:34.278	+2.080	21	285.7	Medium / Medium	1:34.942	+2.38%	11	Soft
24	Pol Espargaro	01:34.461	+2.263	18	290.3	Medium / Soft	1:39.538	+7.34%	5	Medium
25	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.539	+2.341	16	288.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
26	Christophe Ponsson	01:38.154	+5.956	22	280.1	Soft / Soft	1:40.525	+8.40%	11	Soft

FP3 · 08.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Johann Zarco	01:32.788	—	21	291.4	Soft / Soft	1:36.803	+2.76%	9	Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:32.861	+0.073	14	287.0	Medium / Soft	1:37.239	+3.22%	6	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:33.278	+0.490	8	294.9	Soft / Medium	1:35.056	+0.90%	5	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:33.322	+0.534	13	289.6	Medium / Medium	1:35.166	+1.02%	5	Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.366	+0.578	10	292.7	Medium / Medium	1:34.205	—	6	Medium
6	Alex Rins	01:33.554	+0.766	11	289.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.600	+0.812	9	287.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.689	+0.901	17	293.7	Soft / Soft	1:37.369	+3.36%	5	Soft
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.743	+0.955	12	288.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.275	+2.20%	5	Soft
10	Maverick Viñales	01:33.774	+0.986	8	291.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.232	+0.03%	6	Soft
11	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.926	+1.138	22	292.1	Soft / Soft	1:36.684	+2.63%	13	Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:34.170	+1.382	11	287.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
13	Xavier Simeon	01:34.485	+1.697	12	287.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
14	Scott Redding	01:34.500	+1.712	13	285.7	Soft / Soft	1:35.883	+1.78%	5	Soft
15	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.681	+1.893	5	291.4	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Stefan Bradl	01:34.889	+2.101	13	291.8	Soft / Soft	1:38.372	+4.42%	6	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.941	+2.153	7	286.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
18	Michele Pirro	01:34.953	+2.165	9	290.4	Soft / Soft	1:37.940	+3.97%	5	Soft
19	Pol Espargaro	01:34.963	+2.175	13	288.3	Soft / Soft	1:39.242	+5.35%	6	Soft
20	Valentino Rossi	01:35.202	+2.414	10	288.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
21	Bradley Smith	01:35.236	+2.448	15	286.5	Soft / Soft	1:37.482	+3.48%	6	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:35.598	+2.810	10	284.4	Soft / Soft	1:37.892	+3.91%	5	Soft
23	Karel Abraham	01:35.808	+3.020	11	289.3	Soft / Soft	1:37.860	+3.88%	8	Soft
—	Andrea Iannone	01:50.722	+17.934	2	263.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
—	Christophe Ponsson	01:40.469	+7.681	8	282.0	Soft / Soft	1:42.444	+8.75%	5	Soft
Retired	Jorge Lorenzo		—	0	0.0	Medium / Medium	—			—

FP4 · 08.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Maverick Viñales	01:32.633	—	17	293.3	Medium / Medium	1:33.145	+0.34%	13	Soft
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.756	+0.123	15	294.1	Medium / Medium	1:32.829	—	5	Medium
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.887	+0.254	15	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:33.453	+0.67%	11	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:32.909	+0.276	17	292.2	Hard / Medium	1:33.537	+0.76%	12	Medium
5	Valentino Rossi	01:32.917	+0.284	17	292.1	Medium / Medium	1:33.362	+0.57%	12	Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:32.982	+0.349	16	288.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.784	+1.03%	11	Soft
7	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.068	+0.435	14	287.7	Hard / Soft	1:34.229	+1.51%	7	Medium
8	Michele Pirro	01:33.087	+0.454	9	291.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
9	Johann Zarco	01:33.172	+0.539	16	291.1	Soft / Soft	1:34.142	+1.41%	12	Soft
10	Cal Crutchlow	01:33.327	+0.694	13	291.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
11	Andrea Iannone	01:33.336	+0.703	14	288.5	Medium / Soft	1:34.506	+1.81%	5	Soft
12	Alex Rins	01:33.336	+0.703	15	289.3	Medium / Soft	1:34.426	+1.72%	6	Medium
13	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.350	+0.717	15	290.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.688	+0.93%	10	Medium
14	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.516	+0.883	17	293.0	Medium / Medium	1:33.942	+1.20%	9	Medium
15	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.572	+0.939	16	284.3	Medium / Medium	1:35.357	+2.72%	12	Medium
16	Scott Redding	01:33.618	+0.985	14	285.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Bradley Smith	01:33.843	+1.210	14	288.3	Medium / Medium	1:34.586	+1.89%	10	Medium
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:33.847	+1.214	11	285.4	Medium / Medium	1:34.913	+2.25%	5	Hard
19	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.896	+1.263	13	289.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Alvaro Bautista	01:34.046	+1.413	15	288.4	Soft / Soft	1:34.254	+1.54%	11	Soft
21	Stefan Bradl	01:34.143	+1.510	13	294.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.343	+1.63%	5	Soft
22	Karel Abraham	01:34.308	+1.675	13	288.3	Medium / Soft	1:35.483	+2.86%	9	Soft
23	Pol Espargaro	01:34.450	+1.817	13	290.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Thomas Luthi	01:34.500	+1.867	14	284.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
25	Xavier Simeon	01:34.844	+2.211	14	284.6	Soft / Soft	—			—
26	Christophe Ponsson	01:37.739	+5.106	15	283.8	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 08.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.389	—	8	292.6	Medium / Soft
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.454	+0.065	7	288.2	Hard / Soft
3	Andrea Iannone	01:32.566	+0.177	8	288.0	Soft / Soft
4	Michele Pirro	01:32.624	+0.235	7	291.8	Soft / Soft
5	Alvaro Bautista	01:32.792	+0.403	8	290.4	Soft / Soft
6	Aleix Espargaro	01:33.084	+0.695	8	289.0	Medium / Soft
7	Bradley Smith	01:33.085	+0.696	8	286.2	Medium / Soft
8	Stefan Bradl	01:33.361	+0.972	7	290.7	Medium / Soft
9	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.437	+1.048	8	284.2	Medium / Soft
10	Pol Espargaro	01:33.502	+1.113	7	291.4	Medium / Soft
11	Scott Redding	01:33.572	+1.183	7	284.9	Medium / Soft
12	Xavier Simeon	01:33.705	+1.316	7	285.8	Soft / Soft
13	Thomas Luthi	01:33.755	+1.366	9	285.3	Medium / Soft
14	Karel Abraham	01:33.812	+1.423	5	290.1	Medium / Soft
15	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.080	+1.691	8	288.0	Soft / Soft
16	Christophe Ponsson	01:37.180	+4.791	8	283.6	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 08.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:31.629	—	7	291.8	Soft / Soft
2	Jack Miller	01:31.916	+0.287	9	289.3	Medium / Soft
3	Maverick Viñales	01:31.950	+0.321	8	291.8	Medium / Soft
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.003	+0.374	8	292.9	Soft / Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:32.016	+0.387	8	290.0	Medium / Soft
6	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.025	+0.396	7	292.6	Medium / Soft
7	Valentino Rossi	01:32.028	+0.399	8	290.3	Medium / Soft
8	Danilo Petrucci	01:32.136	+0.507	8	293.2	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:32.250	+0.621	8	289.3	Soft / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:32.338	+0.709	8	289.4	Medium / Soft
11	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.369	+0.740	9	293.3	Medium / Soft
Retired	Franco Morbidelli		—	0	0.0	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 09.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:32.536	—	13	292.6	Medium / Medium	1:32.887	—	10	Medium
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:32.564	+0.028	13	296.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.432	+0.59%	9	Medium
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:32.715	+0.179	10	293.5	Medium / Medium	—			—
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:32.977	+0.441	12	294.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.134	+0.27%	8	Medium
5	Jack Miller	01:33.068	+0.532	13	290.5	Medium / Medium	1:33.831	+1.02%	7	Medium
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:33.100	+0.564	10	294.9	Medium / Medium	—			—
7	Maverick Viñales	01:33.175	+0.639	12	293.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.662	+0.83%	9	Medium
8	Andrea Iannone	01:33.190	+0.654	12	290.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.591	+0.76%	5	Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	01:33.471	+0.935	13	291.8	Soft / Soft	1:34.148	+1.36%	10	Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:33.498	+0.962	12	290.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.343	+1.57%	7	Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:33.514	+0.978	12	291.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:33.545	+1.009	11	293.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Michele Pirro	01:33.598	+1.062	12	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:34.106	+1.31%	5	Soft
14	Franco Morbidelli	01:33.763	+1.227	12	286.6	Medium / Medium	1:34.261	+1.48%	9	Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:33.777	+1.241	11	289.8	Soft / Soft	—			—
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:33.822	+1.286	11	286.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
17	Stefan Bradl	01:33.846	+1.310	12	294.5	Medium / Hard	1:34.435	+1.67%	8	Hard
18	Aleix Espargaro	01:34.096	+1.560	12	290.1	Medium / Soft	1:34.515	+1.75%	5	Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:34.101	+1.565	13	287.9	Medium / Medium	1:34.506	+1.74%	10	Medium
20	Bradley Smith	01:34.107	+1.571	11	291.0	Medium / Soft	1:34.618	+1.86%	5	Soft
21	Pol Espargaro	01:34.110	+1.574	12	291.7	Soft / Soft	1:34.606	+1.85%	7	Soft
22	Karel Abraham	01:34.265	+1.729	11	291.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Scott Redding	01:34.294	+1.758	10	289.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
24	Xavier Simeon	01:34.455	+1.919	11	287.2	Soft / Medium	1:35.356	+2.66%	5	Soft
25	Thomas Luthi	01:34.757	+2.221	11	285.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
26	Christophe Ponsson	01:38.611	+6.075	12	285.4	Soft / Soft	1:39.377	+6.99%	5	Soft

Race · 09.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	42:05.426	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.293	—	25	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+2.822	20	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.299	+0.01%	23	Medium
3	Cal Crutchlow	+7.269	16	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.452	+0.17%	25	Medium
4	Alex Rins	+14.687	13	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.866	+0.61%	24	Soft
5	Maverick Viñales	+16.016	11	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.868	+0.62%	25	Medium
6	Daniel Pedrosa	+17.408	10	27	Hard / Medium	1:33.896	+0.65%	25	Medium
7	Valentino Rossi	+19.086	9	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.990	+0.75%	25	Medium
8	Andrea Iannone	+21.804	8	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.920	+0.67%	24	Soft
9	Alvaro Bautista	+23.919	7	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.117	+0.88%	25	Soft
10	Johann Zarco	+27.559	6	27	Soft / Soft	1:34.258	+1.03%	24	Soft
11	Danilo Petrucci	+30.698	5	27	Medium / Medium	1:34.338	+1.12%	25	Medium
12	Franco Morbidelli	+32.941	4	27	Hard / Medium	1:34.535	+1.33%	24	Medium
13	Takaaki Nakagami	+33.461	3	27	Hard / Medium	1:34.458	+1.25%	24	Medium
14	Aleix Espargaro	+35.686	2	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.484	+1.28%	24	Soft
15	Michele Pirro	+35.812	1	27	Medium / Soft	1:34.489	+1.28%	25	Soft
16	Bradley Smith	+46.500	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:35.008	+1.84%	24	Soft
17	Jorge Lorenzo	+46.614	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.343	+0.05%	23	Medium
18	Jack Miller	+50.593	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:34.375	+1.16%	23	Medium
19	Hafizh Syahrin	+55.168	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:35.148	+1.99%	25	Soft
20	Karel Abraham	+62.255	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:35.504	+2.37%	24	Soft
21	Scott Redding	+69.475	0	27	Medium / Soft	1:35.447	+2.31%	24	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	+72.608	0	27	Medium / Medium	1:35.752	+2.64%	22	Medium
23	Christophe Ponsson	+0.000	0	26	Soft / Soft	1:38.008	+5.05%	20	Soft
Retired	Pol Espargaro		0	17	Medium / Soft	1:35.161	+2.00%	15	Soft
Retired	Stefan Bradl		0	17	Hard / Hard	1:34.453	+1.24%	15	Hard
Retired	Xavier Simeon		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Lorenzo	1:32.829	—	+1.158	Medium	5
Marc Marquez	1:32.887	+0.058	+0.210	Medium	10
Maverick Viñales	1:33.018*	+0.189	+0.292	Medium	4
Cal Crutchlow	1:33.344	+0.515	+0.729	Medium	13
Valentino Rossi	1:33.401	+0.572	+0.508	Medium	7
Andrea Dovizioso	1:33.419	+0.590	+0.226	Medium	12
Jack Miller	1:33.536	+0.707	+0.105	Medium	8
Danilo Petrucci	1:33.606	+0.777	+0.574	Medium	11
Daniel Pedrosa	1:33.774	+0.945	+0.089	Medium	7
Stefan Bradl	1:34.076	+1.247	+0.530	Medium	7
Takaaki Nakagami	1:34.085	+1.256	+0.359	Medium	7
Franco Morbidelli	1:34.186	+1.357	+0.512	Medium	6
Alvaro Bautista	1:34.451	+1.622	+0.086	Medium	5
Thomas Luthi	1:34.685	+1.856	+0.237	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Andrea Iannone	56%	3
2	Franco Morbidelli	48%	2 ✓
3	Daniel Pedrosa	35%	1 ✓
4	Michele Pirro	17%	4
5	Alvaro Bautista	17%	5
6	Scott Redding	7%	11
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	9
8	Aleix Espargaro	4%	6
9	Stefan Bradl	3%	8
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	15
11	Bradley Smith	2%	7
12	Karel Abraham	0%	14
13	Xavier Simeon	0%	12
14	Thomas Luthi	0%	13
15	Pol Espargaro	0%	10
16	Christophe Ponsson	—	16

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Andrea Dovizioso	39%	72%	92%	4
2	Jorge Lorenzo	23%	53%	86%	1
3	Cal Crutchlow	16%	48%	82%	6
4	Maverick Viñales	4%	36%	70%	3
5	Marc Marquez	4%	27%	57%	5
6	Danilo Petrucci	6%	20%	56%	8
7	Alex Rins	1%	10%	44%	10
8	Valentino Rossi	3%	15%	36%	7
9	Johann Zarco	1%	6%	26%	9
10	Jack Miller	3%	6%	20%	2
11	Daniel Pedrosa	0%	6%	20%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Pending · no data yet

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Lorenzo	1	29%	61%	77%	88%	10%	17
Jack Miller	2	18%	43%	59%	72%	26%	18
Maverick Viñales	3	16%	48%	70%	88%	10%	5
Andrea Dovizioso	4	13%	36%	59%	82%	13%	1
Marc Marquez	5	8%	29%	51%	81%	13%	2
Cal Crutchlow	6	5%	20%	38%	66%	28%	3
Valentino Rossi	7	5%	20%	39%	79%	9%	7
Danilo Petrucci	8	3%	12%	27%	64%	22%	11
Johann Zarco	9	2%	10%	24%	72%	9%	10
Alex Rins	10	1%	6%	14%	51%	27%	4
Daniel Pedrosa	11	1%	5%	14%	56%	12%	6
Franco Morbidelli	12	1%	4%	10%	51%	8%	12
Andrea Iannone	13	0%	2%	6%	33%	26%	8
Michele Pirro	14	0%	2%	5%	32%	19%	15
Alvaro Bautista	15	0%	1%	3%	23%	20%	9
Aleix Espargaro	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	25%	14
Bradley Smith	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	14%	16
Stefan Bradl	18	0%	0%	1%	10%	21%	—
Takaaki Nakagami	19	0%	0%	1%	7%	19%	13
Pol Espargaro	20	0%	0%	0%	5%	21%	—
Scott Redding	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	16%	21
Xavier Simeon	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	—
Thomas Luthi	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	24%	22
Karel Abraham	24	0%	0%	0%	1%	32%	20
Hafizh Syahrin	25	0%	0%	0%	1%	19%	19
Christophe Ponsson	26	0%	0%	0%	1%	19%	23

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	221	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	154	−67
3	Valentino Rossi	151	−70
4	Jorge Lorenzo	130	−91
5	Maverick Viñales	124	−97
6	Cal Crutchlow	119	−102

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

1/28

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

1.192 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alex Rins, from P20 to P8.

Longest battle: Danilo Petrucci vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet