Round 14 of 19 Aftermath

Aragon Grand Prix 2018

5.078 m · 23 laps · since 2010

21.09 – 23.09.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	41:55.949	25
2	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+0.648	20
3	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+1.259	16
4	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+2.638	13
5	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+5.274	11
6	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+9.396	10
7	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+14.285	9
8	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+15.199	8
9	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+16.375	7
10	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+22.457	6
11	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+27.025	5
12	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+27.957	4
13	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+28.821	3
14	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+32.345	2
15	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+37.639	1
16	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+39.585	0
17	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+40.763	0
18	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+56.296	0
19	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+58.981	0
20	Jordi Torres	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+59.513	0
DNF	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	Retired	0
DNF	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Jorge Lorenzo · 29%	Marc Marquez · 15% · from P3	0.89 / 0.89	2.4 / 2.4

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:49.210	—	+0.210	Soft	21
Alex Rins	1:49.230	+0.020	+0.217	Soft	21
Andrea Dovizioso	1:49.254	+0.044	+0.226	Hard	21
Andrea Iannone	1:49.300	+0.090	+0.224	Soft	21
Daniel Pedrosa	1:49.412	+0.202	+0.089	Hard	21
Aleix Espargaro	1:49.626	+0.416	+0.209	Soft	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:49.690	+0.480	+0.574	Hard	21
Jack Miller	1:49.752	+0.542	+0.105	Hard	20
Valentino Rossi	1:49.819	+0.609	+0.508	Hard	21
Maverick Viñales	1:50.006	+0.796	+0.292	Hard	21
Franco Morbidelli	1:50.306	+1.096	+0.512	Hard	21
Bradley Smith	1:50.348	+1.138	+0.085	Hard	21
Takaaki Nakagami	1:50.425	+1.215	+0.359	Hard	21
Johann Zarco	1:50.488	+1.278	+0.344	Soft	21
Karel Abraham	1:50.640	+1.430	—	Soft	21
Thomas Luthi	1:50.703	+1.493	+0.237	Hard	21
Scott Redding	1:50.843	+1.633	+0.263	Soft	21
Xavier Simeon	1:51.518	+2.308	—	Hard	21
Hafizh Syahrin	1:51.529	+2.319	+0.491	Soft	21
Jordi Torres	1:51.606	+2.396	+0.140	Hard	21

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

5/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.648 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (23 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:00:56	Jorge Lorenzo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:10		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:04:08	Alvaro Bautista	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:08:19	Cal Crutchlow	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21 & #25

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Andrea Dovizioso (started P2).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Aleix Espargaro	13	6	+7
Alex Rins	9	4	+5
Valentino Rossi	17	13	+4
Maverick Viñales	14	19	−5
Karel Abraham	16	20	−4
Cal Crutchlow	4	8	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	17→8	+5.1
Aleix Espargaro	13→6	+4.5
Alex Rins	9→4	+4.0
Jordi Torres	23→20	−3.0
Johann Zarco	12→14	−4.1
Hafizh Syahrin	18→18	−4.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Hard	59%	+0.81%	+0.043	0	1	11.1
Soft	41%	+0.85%	+0.035	1	2	9.6

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

30.9 °C

Air

max 32.0 °C

31%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

10 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.020	—	19	336.6	Soft / Hard	1:48.629	—	5	Hard
2	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.210	+0.190	18	337.9	Soft / Hard	1:49.471	+0.78%	10	Medium
3	Jack Miller	01:48.734	+0.714	19	329.3	Medium / Hard	1:50.166	+1.42%	11	Hard
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.751	+0.731	17	336.0	Soft / Hard	—			—
5	Maverick Viñales	01:48.803	+0.783	17	334.4	Medium / Soft	1:49.769	+1.05%	11	Medium
6	Marc Marquez	01:48.804	+0.784	19	336.1	Medium / Medium	1:49.472	+0.78%	10	Medium
7	Valentino Rossi	01:48.958	+0.938	19	332.5	Soft / Medium	1:50.590	+1.81%	11	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:49.003	+0.983	16	333.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.173	+1.42%	5	Medium
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:49.128	+1.108	17	340.8	Soft / Medium	1:50.232	+1.48%	6	Medium
10	Andrea Iannone	01:49.241	+1.221	20	334.4	Soft / Medium	1:50.163	+1.41%	5	Medium
11	Alex Rins	01:49.439	+1.419	20	333.1	Soft / Medium	1:50.568	+1.79%	10	Medium
12	Pol Espargaro	01:49.526	+1.506	17	335.2	Medium / Hard	1:51.017	+2.20%	5	Medium
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.637	+1.617	18	333.5	Soft / Hard	1:51.521	+2.66%	5	Medium
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.639	+1.619	19	336.6	Soft / Medium	1:49.978	+1.24%	11	Medium
15	Karel Abraham	01:49.648	+1.628	17	334.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Scott Redding	01:49.780	+1.760	16	328.5	Medium / Soft	1:51.016	+2.20%	4	Medium
17	Bradley Smith	01:49.900	+1.880	16	330.8	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.944	+1.924	19	338.8	Medium / Medium	1:50.767	+1.97%	6	Medium
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:50.070	+2.050	18	327.3	Soft / Medium	1:50.737	+1.94%	6	Medium
20	Thomas Luthi	01:50.219	+2.199	18	328.2	Medium / Soft	1:52.501	+3.56%	6	Medium
21	Xavier Simeon	01:50.314	+2.294	15	325.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Franco Morbidelli	01:50.377	+2.357	17	331.5	Soft / Medium	1:51.386	+2.54%	6	Medium
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:50.694	+2.674	14	329.5	Medium / Medium	1:52.907	+3.94%	5	Medium
24	Jordi Torres	01:52.823	+4.803	18	332.6	Soft / Soft	1:54.013	+4.96%	12	Soft

FP2 · 21.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:47.382	—	19	337.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.359	+0.11%	11	Hard
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:47.520	+0.138	15	335.4	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.835	+0.453	19	336.3	Soft / Soft	1:49.696	+0.42%	11	Hard
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.862	+0.480	17	341.5	Medium / Soft	1:50.369	+1.03%	5	Hard
5	Andrea Iannone	01:47.919	+0.537	20	334.0	Medium / Soft	1:50.256	+0.93%	12	Hard
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.134	+0.752	19	339.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.896	+0.60%	10	Hard
7	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.389	+1.007	19	339.8	Hard / Soft	—			—
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:48.452	+1.070	19	334.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.744	+0.46%	6	Hard
9	Valentino Rossi	01:48.501	+1.119	19	333.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.932	+0.63%	11	Hard
10	Maverick Viñales	01:48.552	+1.170	18	333.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.654	+1.272	16	331.2	Hard / Soft	—			—
12	Jack Miller	01:48.680	+1.298	17	332.4	Medium / Soft	1:50.354	+1.02%	10	Hard
13	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.808	+1.426	13	331.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Pol Espargaro	01:48.850	+1.468	16	333.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Bradley Smith	01:48.861	+1.479	17	334.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.860	+0.57%	5	Hard
16	Alex Rins	01:48.902	+1.520	20	337.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.242	—	10	Soft
17	Johann Zarco	01:48.997	+1.615	19	331.2	Soft / Soft	1:50.556	+1.20%	11	Medium
18	Karel Abraham	01:49.016	+1.634	16	335.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
19	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.123	+1.741	19	332.0	Medium / Soft	1:50.358	+1.02%	5	Hard
20	Scott Redding	01:49.441	+2.059	16	333.6	Hard / Medium	1:50.178	+0.86%	5	Hard
21	Thomas Luthi	01:49.690	+2.308	18	333.5	Hard / Soft	1:50.804	+1.43%	6	Hard
22	Xavier Simeon	01:49.925	+2.543	18	325.7	Medium / Soft	1:50.660	+1.30%	4	Hard
23	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.937	+2.555	17	331.5	Medium / Soft	1:52.127	+2.64%	5	Medium
24	Jordi Torres	01:51.081	+3.699	17	334.7	Soft / Soft	—			—

FP3 · 22.09 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.393	—	17	339.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Jack Miller	01:47.413	+0.020	19	333.5	Soft / Soft	1:51.250	+2.03%	6	Hard
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:47.575	+0.182	17	340.8	Soft / Hard	—			—
4	Andrea Iannone	01:47.604	+0.211	19	330.5	Medium / Soft	1:49.437	+0.37%	7	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:47.606	+0.213	19	340.2	Medium / Medium	1:49.036	—	10	Soft
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.629	+0.236	18	339.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.746	+0.353	18	335.7	Soft / Soft	1:49.441	+0.37%	5	Hard
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:47.891	+0.498	20	334.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
9	Alex Rins	01:48.051	+0.658	19	333.2	Medium / Soft	1:49.073	+0.03%	11	Soft
10	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.057	+0.664	15	336.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
11	Maverick Viñales	01:48.087	+0.694	19	336.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Bradley Smith	01:48.096	+0.703	18	331.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.129	+0.736	16	329.7	Hard / Soft	1:49.924	+0.81%	5	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	01:48.154	+0.761	17	328.1	Soft / Soft	1:50.100	+0.98%	5	Soft
15	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.397	+1.004	18	332.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Karel Abraham	01:48.423	+1.030	17	334.5	Medium / Soft	1:51.468	+2.23%	6	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.450	+1.057	20	327.7	Medium / Soft	1:49.946	+0.84%	9	Soft
18	Valentino Rossi	01:48.905	+1.512	18	329.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.564	+0.48%	6	Hard
19	Thomas Luthi	01:49.259	+1.866	17	330.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.361	+1.968	15	330.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Scott Redding	01:49.421	+2.028	18	327.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.970	+0.86%	5	Medium
22	Xavier Simeon	01:49.564	+2.171	19	326.4	Soft / Soft	1:51.240	+2.02%	7	Hard
23	Pol Espargaro	01:49.701	+2.308	6	330.3	Medium / Hard	—			—
24	Jordi Torres	01:51.171	+3.778	17	330.9	Medium / Soft	1:51.371	+2.14%	5	Soft

FP4 · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:48.129	—	13	336.4	Soft / Hard	1:48.556	—	5	Hard
2	Andrea Iannone	01:48.376	+0.247	11	330.8	Medium / Soft	1:48.671	+0.11%	5	Soft
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.392	+0.263	14	335.8	Hard / Hard	1:49.045	+0.45%	8	Hard
4	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.394	+0.265	14	334.7	Hard / Hard	1:49.024	+0.43%	6	Hard
5	Jack Miller	01:48.587	+0.458	14	331.3	Hard / Hard	1:49.328	+0.71%	10	Hard
6	Maverick Viñales	01:48.592	+0.463	15	334.7	Hard / Hard	1:49.173	+0.57%	8	Hard
7	Marc Marquez	01:48.597	+0.468	12	335.5	Hard / Hard	—			—
8	Daniel Pedrosa	01:48.691	+0.562	14	337.9	Hard / Hard	1:49.364	+0.74%	7	Hard
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.704	+0.575	13	338.7	Hard / Hard	1:49.528	+0.90%	5	Hard
10	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.879	+0.750	12	331.8	Hard / Soft	1:49.537	+0.90%	5	Soft
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.930	+0.801	14	327.1	Hard / Hard	1:49.089	+0.49%	6	Hard
12	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.993	+0.864	14	328.6	Hard / Hard	1:49.578	+0.94%	9	Soft
13	Alex Rins	01:49.070	+0.941	14	336.1	Hard / Soft	1:49.592	+0.95%	6	Hard
14	Alvaro Bautista	01:49.147	+1.018	17	334.6	Medium / Soft	1:49.631	+0.99%	15	Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:49.200	+1.071	12	329.8	Medium / Soft	1:49.623	+0.98%	5	Soft
16	Scott Redding	01:49.403	+1.274	13	327.8	Hard / Soft	1:50.236	+1.55%	4	Soft
17	Karel Abraham	01:49.502	+1.373	13	333.2	Medium / Hard	—			—
18	Valentino Rossi	01:49.529	+1.400	13	334.4	Medium / Medium	1:49.872	+1.21%	4	Medium
19	Bradley Smith	01:49.563	+1.434	14	332.8	Hard / Hard	1:49.854	+1.20%	10	Hard
20	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.565	+1.436	11	327.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Xavier Simeon	01:50.031	+1.902	14	325.0	Medium / Hard	1:50.988	+2.24%	5	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	01:50.220	+2.091	10	328.6	Hard / Soft	—			—
23	Jordi Torres	01:51.518	+3.389	16	333.1	Medium / Hard	1:52.160	+3.32%	13	Hard

Q1 · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Maverick Viñales	01:47.823	—	6	332.7	Medium / Soft
2	Takaaki Nakagami	01:47.946	+0.123	8	327.3	Hard / Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:48.009	+0.186	6	328.2	Hard / Soft
4	Johann Zarco	01:48.052	+0.229	7	328.5	Soft / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:48.181	+0.358	6	327.2	Medium / Soft
6	Bradley Smith	01:48.216	+0.393	7	330.9	Medium / Soft
7	Karel Abraham	01:48.398	+0.575	7	333.5	Medium / Soft
8	Valentino Rossi	01:48.627	+0.804	6	332.4	Medium / Soft
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:48.975	+1.152	6	334.1	Medium / Soft
10	Thomas Luthi	01:48.988	+1.165	7	326.9	Hard / Soft
11	Scott Redding	01:49.303	+1.480	6	325.2	Medium / Soft
12	Xavier Simeon	01:49.699	+1.876	7	323.6	Soft / Soft
13	Jordi Torres	01:50.336	+2.513	7	335.2	Soft / Soft

Q2 · 22.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Jorge Lorenzo	01:46.881	—	6	335.4	Soft / Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:46.895	+0.014	7	339.6	Soft / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:46.960	+0.079	7	338.4	Medium / Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:47.146	+0.265	6	336.0	Hard / Soft
5	Andrea Iannone	01:47.169	+0.288	7	336.9	Medium / Soft
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:47.224	+0.343	7	344.1	Medium / Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:47.351	+0.470	6	334.0	Soft / Soft
8	Alvaro Bautista	01:47.678	+0.797	7	337.7	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:47.737	+0.856	7	330.3	Soft / Soft
10	Jack Miller	01:47.792	+0.911	7	331.6	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:47.810	+0.929	6	336.2	Medium / Soft
12	Takaaki Nakagami	01:48.284	+1.403	7	327.0	Hard / Soft

Warm Up · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Iannone	01:47.888	—	8	328.0	— / —	—			—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:48.537	+0.649	11	336.5	— / —	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:48.618	+0.730	10	333.4	Medium / Hard	1:49.144	—	6	Hard
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:48.848	+0.960	10	336.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Valentino Rossi	01:48.902	+1.014	11	331.0	Soft / Hard	1:49.649	+0.46%	9	Hard
6	Alvaro Bautista	01:48.939	+1.051	11	332.2	— / —	—			—
7	Danilo Petrucci	01:48.941	+1.053	9	337.5	— / —	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:48.967	+1.079	10	329.4	— / —	—			—
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:49.100	+1.212	11	333.1	Medium / Medium	1:50.107	+0.88%	7	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:49.135	+1.247	11	332.1	Hard / Hard	1:49.866	+0.66%	9	Hard
11	Jorge Lorenzo	01:49.171	+1.283	9	331.6	Soft / Hard	—			—
12	Alex Rins	01:49.184	+1.296	11	329.5	— / —	—			—
13	Takaaki Nakagami	01:49.246	+1.358	11	325.4	— / —	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:49.338	+1.450	10	328.8	— / —	—			—
15	Karel Abraham	01:49.364	+1.476	10	332.4	Medium / Soft	1:50.369	+1.12%	6	Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:49.445	+1.557	9	331.0	Medium / Soft	1:49.882	+0.68%	5	Soft
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:49.452	+1.564	11	325.6	Medium / Hard	1:49.730	+0.54%	9	Hard
18	Bradley Smith	01:49.516	+1.628	11	332.8	— / —	—			—
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:49.913	+2.025	10	324.8	— / —	—			—
20	Scott Redding	01:50.169	+2.281	11	324.6	— / —	—			—
21	Thomas Luthi	01:50.436	+2.548	11	326.9	Medium / Soft	1:51.027	+1.73%	7	Soft
22	Xavier Simeon	01:50.776	+2.888	11	324.2	Soft / Soft	1:51.248	+1.93%	7	Soft
23	Jordi Torres	01:51.258	+3.370	11	330.4	Soft / Soft	1:51.636	+2.28%	9	Soft

Race · 23.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:55.949	25	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.210	—	21	Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	+0.648	20	23	Hard / Hard	1:49.254	+0.04%	21	Hard
3	Andrea Iannone	+1.259	16	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.300	+0.08%	21	Soft
4	Alex Rins	+2.638	13	23	Hard / Soft	1:49.230	+0.02%	21	Soft
5	Daniel Pedrosa	+5.274	11	23	Hard / Hard	1:49.412	+0.19%	21	Hard
6	Aleix Espargaro	+9.396	10	23	Medium / Soft	1:49.626	+0.38%	21	Soft
7	Danilo Petrucci	+14.285	9	23	Hard / Hard	1:49.690	+0.44%	21	Hard
8	Valentino Rossi	+15.199	8	23	Medium / Hard	1:49.819	+0.56%	21	Hard
9	Jack Miller	+16.375	7	23	Hard / Hard	1:49.752	+0.50%	20	Hard
10	Maverick Viñales	+22.457	6	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.006	+0.73%	21	Hard
11	Franco Morbidelli	+27.025	5	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.306	+1.00%	21	Hard
12	Takaaki Nakagami	+27.957	4	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.425	+1.11%	21	Hard
13	Bradley Smith	+28.821	3	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.348	+1.04%	21	Hard
14	Johann Zarco	+32.345	2	23	Medium / Soft	1:50.488	+1.17%	21	Soft
15	Karel Abraham	+37.639	1	23	Hard / Soft	1:50.640	+1.31%	21	Soft
16	Scott Redding	+39.585	0	23	Hard / Soft	1:50.843	+1.50%	21	Soft
17	Thomas Luthi	+40.763	0	23	Hard / Hard	1:50.703	+1.37%	21	Hard
18	Hafizh Syahrin	+56.296	0	23	Medium / Soft	1:51.529	+2.12%	21	Soft
19	Xavier Simeon	+58.981	0	23	Medium / Hard	1:51.518	+2.11%	21	Hard
20	Jordi Torres	+59.513	0	23	Medium / Hard	1:51.606	+2.19%	21	Hard
Retired	Alvaro Bautista		0	1	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Cal Crutchlow		0	4	Hard / Hard	—			—
Out on lap 1	Jorge Lorenzo		0	0	— / —	—			—

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Valentino Rossi	1:49.687	—	+0.508	Medium	7
Bradley Smith	1:49.737	+0.050	+0.085	Medium	5
Scott Redding	1:49.899*	+0.212	+0.263	Medium	4
Johann Zarco	1:50.460	+0.773	+0.344	Medium	9

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Maverick Viñales	55%	1 ✓
2	Bradley Smith	49%	6
3	Franco Morbidelli	36%	3
4	Johann Zarco	17%	4
5	Aleix Espargaro	17%	5
6	Karel Abraham	7%	7
7	Takaaki Nakagami	8%	2 ✓
8	Valentino Rossi	4%	8
9	Thomas Luthi	3%	10
10	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	9
11	Scott Redding	2%	11
12	Xavier Simeon	0%	12
13	Jordi Torres	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marc Marquez	39%	71%	92%	3
2	Cal Crutchlow	24%	54%	86%	4
3	Jack Miller	16%	48%	82%	10
4	Jorge Lorenzo	4%	37%	70%	1
5	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	27%	57%	2
6	Andrea Iannone	6%	20%	55%	5
7	Daniel Pedrosa	1%	10%	44%	6
8	Danilo Petrucci	3%	15%	36%	7
9	Alvaro Bautista	1%	6%	26%	8
10	Alex Rins	3%	7%	21%	9
11	Maverick Viñales	0%	6%	20%	11
12	Takaaki Nakagami	0%	1%	12%	12

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Maverick Viñales	11	14	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21 & #25
Race	Franco Morbidelli	13	19	+6	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21 & #25

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Jorge Lorenzo	1	29%	61%	77%	89%	10%	—
Andrea Dovizioso	2	21%	53%	71%	85%	13%	2
Marc Marquez	3	15%	46%	66%	84%	13%	1
Cal Crutchlow	4	9%	30%	49%	68%	28%	—
Andrea Iannone	5	7%	25%	44%	69%	26%	3
Daniel Pedrosa	6	6%	25%	48%	80%	12%	5
Danilo Petrucci	7	4%	17%	35%	69%	22%	7
Alvaro Bautista	8	3%	13%	29%	68%	20%	—
Alex Rins	9	2%	9%	19%	59%	26%	4
Jack Miller	10	1%	6%	16%	53%	26%	9
Takaaki Nakagami	11	1%	5%	13%	53%	18%	12
Johann Zarco	12	1%	4%	11%	53%	9%	14
Aleix Espargaro	13	1%	2%	7%	37%	24%	6
Maverick Viñales	14	0%	2%	5%	38%	10%	10
Bradley Smith	15	0%	1%	4%	29%	14%	13
Karel Abraham	16	0%	1%	2%	18%	31%	15
Valentino Rossi	17	0%	1%	2%	17%	9%	8
Hafizh Syahrin	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	18%	18
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	10%	7%	11
Thomas Luthi	20	0%	0%	1%	6%	23%	17
Scott Redding	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	16%	16
Xavier Simeon	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	29%	19
Jordi Torres	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	19%	20

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,068 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.40%	Jorge Martin +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.54%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.54%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%	Enea Bastianini +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Alex Marquez +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.07%	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Jorge Martin +0.40%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Alex Marquez +0.12%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.03%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.15%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.26%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%
S2	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.53%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.35%	Enea Bastianini +0.49%
S4	Marc Marquez	Alex Marquez +0.24%	Brad Binder +0.24%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Alex Marquez +0.36%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Martin +0.33%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.12%	Pedro Acosta +0.59%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pedro Acosta +0.28%	Jorge Martin +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.43%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.28%	Johann Zarco +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.39%
S3	Enea Bastianini	Francesco Bagnaia +0.30%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%
S4	Enea Bastianini +0.12%	Johann Zarco +0.16%	Miguel Oliveira +0.29%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S2	Joan Mir +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.19%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.22%	Enea Bastianini +0.29%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.20%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.42%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.00%	Franco Morbidelli +0.20%	Maverick Viñales +0.25%
S2	Maverick Viñales	Franco Morbidelli +0.25%	Joan Mir +0.40%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.21%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%
S4	Miguel Oliveira +0.16%	Alex Marquez +0.25%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.14%	Alex Rins +0.42%
S2	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.35%	Jack Miller +0.57%
S3	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.52%	Jack Miller +0.77%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.64%	Aleix Espargaro +0.66%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.24%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Cal Crutchlow +0.27%	Danilo Petrucci +0.44%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.51%	Cal Crutchlow +0.58%
S4	Andrea Iannone +0.08%	Danilo Petrucci +0.35%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.38%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

A grid-position track: the grid rules here and it is very hard to come back.

71/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.78

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 29% of the time (between 8% and 64%; 7 cases).

Descriptive, over 8 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	246	—
2	Andrea Dovizioso	174	−72
3	Valentino Rossi	159	−87
4	Maverick Viñales	130	−116
5	Jorge Lorenzo	130	−116
6	Danilo Petrucci	119	−127

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

8/23

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.879 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Scott Redding, from P22 to P14.

Longest battle: Aleix Espargaro vs Alvaro Bautista (15 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2022Enea BastianiniDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Alex RinsSuzuki
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	4/22	18%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	5/22	23%
2022	3/23	13%
2021	2/22	9%
2020	1/21	5%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet