British Grand Prix 2018
Silverstone Circuit United Kingdom
What happened
The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.
Sprint result
Forecast vs reality
C14Lap-by-lap positions: race
Lap-by-lap positions: sprint
Race pace
The race in numbers
Incidents
The start
C23Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested
The tyre gamble
Race weather
C25Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.
As it happens
Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.
The weekend, session by session
FP1 · 24.08
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maverick Viñales | 02:02.073 | — | 16 | 322.4 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.025 | — | 8 | Medium |
| 2 | Valentino Rossi | 02:02.262 | +0.189 | 16 | 316.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 3 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:02.263 | +0.190 | 15 | 325.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 4 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:02.401 | +0.328 | 17 | 325.4 | Medium / Medium | 2:04.501 | +0.38% | 5 | Hard |
| 5 | Jack Miller | 02:02.973 | +0.900 | 16 | 317.2 | Medium / Medium | 2:05.298 | +1.03% | 5 | Medium |
| 6 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:03.115 | +1.042 | 14 | 323.2 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 7 | Tito Rabat | 02:03.136 | +1.063 | 17 | 321.6 | Medium / Soft | 2:06.088 | +1.66% | 6 | Medium |
| 8 | Andrea Iannone | 02:03.207 | +1.134 | 17 | 317.1 | Medium / Medium | 2:06.416 | +1.93% | 6 | Medium |
| 9 | Johann Zarco | 02:03.243 | +1.170 | 16 | 316.9 | Soft / Soft | 2:04.742 | +0.58% | 5 | Medium |
| 10 | Marc Marquez | 02:03.699 | +1.626 | 16 | 320.2 | Medium / Medium | — | — | ||
| 11 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:03.886 | +1.813 | 15 | 317.4 | Soft / Medium | 2:04.997 | +0.78% | 7 | Medium |
| 12 | Bradley Smith | 02:04.013 | +1.940 | 15 | 316.4 | Medium / Hard | — | — | ||
| 13 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:04.105 | +2.032 | 13 | 320.1 | Soft / Medium | 2:06.553 | +2.04% | 5 | Medium |
| 14 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:04.112 | +2.039 | 15 | 312.0 | Soft / Medium | — | — | ||
| 15 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:04.170 | +2.097 | 16 | 321.6 | Medium / Medium | 2:05.387 | +1.10% | 5 | Medium |
| 16 | Alex Rins | 02:04.567 | +2.494 | 17 | 316.9 | Soft / Medium | 2:06.479 | +1.98% | 5 | Medium |
| 17 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:04.601 | +2.528 | 16 | 319.3 | Medium / Medium | 2:05.999 | +1.59% | 5 | Medium |
| 18 | Scott Redding | 02:04.966 | +2.893 | 15 | 312.5 | Medium / Medium | 2:05.298 | +1.03% | 5 | Medium |
| 19 | Thomas Luthi | 02:05.013 | +2.940 | 17 | 314.2 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.769 | +1.41% | 13 | Soft |
| 20 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:05.146 | +3.073 | 15 | 315.0 | Medium / Medium | 2:06.776 | +2.22% | 6 | Medium |
| 21 | Karel Abraham | 02:05.389 | +3.316 | 13 | 318.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 22 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:05.448 | +3.375 | 17 | 313.7 | Soft / Medium | 2:06.950 | +2.36% | 12 | Medium |
| 23 | Xavier Simeon | 02:06.214 | +4.141 | 13 | 315.3 | Soft / Medium | — | — | ||
| 24 | Loris Baz | 02:06.731 | +4.658 | 18 | 310.2 | Soft / Medium | 2:09.327 | +4.28% | 8 | Soft |
FP2 · 24.08
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:01.385 | — | 16 | 324.7 | Medium / Soft | 2:03.049 | +0.37% | 5 | Soft |
| 2 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:01.390 | +0.005 | 16 | 323.8 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 3 | Maverick Viñales | 02:01.446 | +0.061 | 18 | 323.0 | Hard / Soft | 2:02.611 | +0.02% | 7 | Soft |
| 4 | Marc Marquez | 02:01.529 | +0.144 | 17 | 322.3 | Hard / Soft | 2:02.593 | — | 5 | Soft |
| 5 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:01.782 | +0.397 | 14 | 323.9 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.952 | +1.92% | 5 | Soft |
| 6 | Jack Miller | 02:01.819 | +0.434 | 16 | 317.3 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 7 | Johann Zarco | 02:01.962 | +0.577 | 16 | 316.9 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 8 | Valentino Rossi | 02:02.152 | +0.767 | 16 | 315.1 | Hard / Medium | 2:03.540 | +0.77% | 5 | Soft |
| 9 | Andrea Iannone | 02:02.231 | +0.846 | 17 | 319.6 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.293 | +1.39% | 5 | Soft |
| 10 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:02.448 | +1.063 | 18 | 321.1 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 11 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:02.515 | +1.130 | 18 | 315.0 | Medium / Soft | 2:03.858 | +1.03% | 5 | Soft |
| 12 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:02.616 | +1.231 | 16 | 324.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 13 | Tito Rabat | 02:02.704 | +1.319 | 14 | 321.8 | Hard / Hard | 2:05.083 | +2.03% | 5 | Soft |
| 14 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:02.759 | +1.374 | 15 | 315.0 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 15 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:02.864 | +1.479 | 17 | 319.8 | Hard / Soft | 2:04.077 | +1.21% | 5 | Medium |
| 16 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:02.938 | +1.553 | 14 | 315.7 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 17 | Bradley Smith | 02:02.974 | +1.589 | 15 | 317.4 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 18 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:03.293 | +1.908 | 16 | 316.9 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.110 | +1.24% | 5 | Medium |
| 19 | Alex Rins | 02:03.591 | +2.206 | 17 | 316.7 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 20 | Scott Redding | 02:03.810 | +2.425 | 15 | 314.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 21 | Thomas Luthi | 02:04.178 | +2.793 | 14 | 312.2 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 22 | Karel Abraham | 02:04.223 | +2.838 | 15 | 319.3 | Soft / Soft | — | — | ||
| 23 | Loris Baz | 02:04.773 | +3.388 | 16 | 310.1 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 24 | Xavier Simeon | 02:05.212 | +3.827 | 13 | 315.5 | Medium / Soft | — | — |
FP3 · 25.08
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:01.866 | — | 15 | 326.2 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 2 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:01.893 | +0.027 | 16 | 327.2 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 3 | Jack Miller | 02:02.047 | +0.181 | 12 | 320.2 | Soft / Soft | — | — | ||
| 4 | Johann Zarco | 02:02.076 | +0.210 | 16 | 322.6 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.895 | +2.63% | 5 | Soft |
| 5 | Maverick Viñales | 02:02.088 | +0.222 | 19 | 324.9 | Soft / Medium | 2:02.664 | — | 15 | Medium |
| 6 | Valentino Rossi | 02:02.088 | +0.222 | 17 | 322.2 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 7 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:02.321 | +0.455 | 16 | 320.0 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 8 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:02.351 | +0.485 | 16 | 327.2 | Medium / Medium | 2:03.649 | +0.80% | 12 | Medium |
| 9 | Marc Marquez | 02:02.550 | +0.684 | 18 | 325.1 | Hard / Soft | 2:05.056 | +1.95% | 6 | Medium |
| 10 | Bradley Smith | 02:02.559 | +0.693 | 16 | 318.3 | Hard / Soft | 2:05.750 | +2.52% | 6 | Soft |
| 11 | Tito Rabat | 02:02.640 | +0.774 | 18 | 325.5 | Hard / Soft | 2:06.941 | +3.49% | 6 | Medium |
| 12 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:02.940 | +1.074 | 12 | 316.0 | Soft / Soft | — | — | ||
| 13 | Andrea Iannone | 02:03.108 | +1.242 | 13 | 321.9 | Medium / Soft | 2:07.174 | +3.68% | 6 | Medium |
| 14 | Alex Rins | 02:03.197 | +1.331 | 17 | 320.5 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 15 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:03.482 | +1.616 | 14 | 326.1 | Soft / Soft | 2:06.227 | +2.91% | 6 | Soft |
| 16 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:03.493 | +1.627 | 18 | 322.0 | Soft / Soft | 2:05.822 | +2.58% | 6 | Soft |
| 17 | Karel Abraham | 02:03.701 | +1.835 | 12 | 320.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 18 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:03.702 | +1.836 | 15 | 321.4 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.621 | +2.41% | 6 | Soft |
| 19 | Thomas Luthi | 02:03.813 | +1.947 | 16 | 313.8 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.321 | +1.35% | 5 | Soft |
| 20 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:03.890 | +2.024 | 15 | 316.6 | Soft / Soft | 2:07.654 | +4.07% | 5 | Soft |
| 21 | Scott Redding | 02:03.932 | +2.066 | 11 | 317.9 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 22 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:04.235 | +2.369 | 15 | 319.9 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.596 | +2.39% | 6 | Soft |
| 23 | Loris Baz | 02:04.316 | +2.450 | 16 | 313.1 | Medium / Soft | 2:07.342 | +3.81% | 8 | Medium |
| 24 | Xavier Simeon | 02:05.077 | +3.211 | 14 | 319.8 | Soft / Soft | — | — |
FP4 · 25.08 partly wet
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maverick Viñales | 02:01.571 | — | 8 | 327.1 | Medium / Medium | 2:02.498 | — | 6 | Medium |
| 2 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:01.982 | +0.411 | 7 | 328.5 | missing / missing | — | — | ||
| 3 | Marc Marquez | 02:02.002 | +0.431 | 9 | 325.0 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 4 | Jack Miller | 02:02.111 | +0.540 | 6 | 327.0 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 5 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:02.133 | +0.562 | 7 | 330.0 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 6 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:02.150 | +0.579 | 8 | 326.0 | Hard / Hard | — | — | ||
| 7 | Alex Rins | 02:02.631 | +1.060 | 8 | 322.7 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 8 | Andrea Iannone | 02:02.632 | +1.061 | 7 | 325.3 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 9 | Johann Zarco | 02:02.897 | +1.326 | 6 | 322.4 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 10 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:02.964 | +1.393 | 8 | 321.1 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 11 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:03.053 | +1.482 | 7 | 320.1 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 12 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:03.231 | +1.660 | 7 | 322.7 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.839 | +1.91% | 5 | Soft |
| 13 | Valentino Rossi | 02:03.273 | +1.702 | 7 | 322.7 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 14 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:03.275 | +1.704 | 7 | 323.8 | Hard / Soft | — | — | ||
| 15 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:03.287 | +1.716 | 7 | 330.2 | Hard / Hard | — | — | ||
| 16 | Scott Redding | 02:03.353 | +1.782 | 5 | 323.1 | Medium / Medium | — | — | ||
| 17 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:03.391 | +1.820 | 10 | 324.2 | Medium / Soft | 2:03.637 | +0.93% | 5 | Soft |
| 18 | Bradley Smith | 02:03.467 | +1.896 | 9 | 325.3 | Hard / Medium | 2:03.544 | +0.85% | 5 | Medium |
| 19 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:03.494 | +1.923 | 6 | 312.6 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 20 | Thomas Luthi | 02:03.636 | +2.065 | 7 | 319.5 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 21 | Tito Rabat | 02:03.920 | +2.349 | 9 | 329.4 | Hard / Hard | 2:04.400 | +1.55% | 5 | Hard |
| 22 | Loris Baz | 02:04.315 | +2.744 | 8 | 318.5 | Hard / Medium | — | — | ||
| 23 | Karel Abraham | 02:04.350 | +2.779 | 7 | 326.3 | Soft / Medium | 2:06.062 | +2.91% | 5 | Medium |
| 24 | Xavier Simeon | 02:05.479 | +3.908 | 5 | 319.5 | Medium / Hard | — | — |
Q1 · 25.08 partly wet
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradley Smith | 02:13.340 | — | 7 | 275.0 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 2 | Alex Rins | 02:13.713 | +0.373 | 7 | 284.8 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | 2:19.692 | +2.04% | 4 | Wet-Medium |
| 3 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:13.945 | +0.605 | 6 | 256.8 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 4 | Scott Redding | 02:14.171 | +0.831 | 6 | 299.0 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 5 | Thomas Luthi | 02:14.198 | +0.858 | 7 | 271.9 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium | 2:16.906 | — | 4 | Wet-Medium |
| 6 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:14.866 | +1.526 | 6 | 265.4 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft | — | — | ||
| 7 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:15.141 | +1.801 | 6 | 281.1 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 8 | Loris Baz | 02:15.299 | +1.959 | 6 | 285.7 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 9 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:15.377 | +2.037 | 7 | 275.6 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft | 2:20.568 | +2.68% | 4 | Wet-Soft |
| 10 | Karel Abraham | 02:15.721 | +2.381 | 7 | 248.1 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft | 2:19.617 | +1.98% | 5 | Wet-Soft |
| 11 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:16.106 | +2.766 | 7 | 271.8 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft | 2:18.882 | +1.44% | 4 | Wet-Soft |
| 12 | Xavier Simeon | 02:16.451 | +3.111 | 7 | 266.9 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft | — | — | ||
| 13 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:16.483 | +3.143 | 6 | 270.1 | Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| Retired | Tito Rabat | — | 0 | 0.0 | — / — | — | — |
Q2 · 25.08 partly wet
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:10.155 | — | 7 | 306.1 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | 2:14.953 | — | 5 | Wet-Medium |
| 2 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:10.314 | +0.159 | 7 | 306.0 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 3 | Johann Zarco | 02:10.439 | +0.284 | 7 | 295.4 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 4 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:10.615 | +0.460 | 7 | 286.3 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 5 | Marc Marquez | 02:11.083 | +0.928 | 7 | 307.4 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 6 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:11.317 | +1.162 | 6 | 294.5 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 7 | Andrea Iannone | 02:11.495 | +1.340 | 7 | 273.8 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 8 | Bradley Smith | 02:11.514 | +1.359 | 6 | 295.6 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 9 | Jack Miller | 02:12.173 | +2.018 | 7 | 303.1 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 10 | Alex Rins | 02:12.504 | +2.349 | 7 | 292.2 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 11 | Maverick Viñales | 02:12.514 | +2.359 | 7 | 297.4 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — | ||
| 12 | Valentino Rossi | 02:13.504 | +3.349 | 6 | 291.4 | Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium | — | — |
Warm Up · 26.08 partly wet
| Pos. | Rider | Best lap | Gap | Laps | Top km/h | Tyres (front / rear) | Long-run pace | Pace gap | n run | Run rear |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maverick Viñales | 02:01.980 | — | 10 | 322.1 | Medium / Medium | 2:03.828 | +0.68% | 7 | Medium |
| 2 | Andrea Dovizioso | 02:02.183 | +0.203 | 10 | 324.4 | Medium / Soft | 2:03.832 | +0.69% | 8 | Soft |
| 3 | Marc Marquez | 02:02.550 | +0.570 | 10 | 318.3 | Medium / Soft | 2:02.990 | — | 7 | Soft |
| 4 | Jorge Lorenzo | 02:02.760 | +0.780 | 10 | 320.6 | Soft / Soft | 2:04.389 | +1.14% | 7 | Soft |
| 5 | Cal Crutchlow | 02:02.786 | +0.806 | 9 | 321.2 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 6 | Jack Miller | 02:02.794 | +0.814 | 10 | 315.6 | Soft / Soft | 2:03.485 | +0.40% | 7 | Soft |
| 7 | Johann Zarco | 02:02.796 | +0.816 | 10 | 317.7 | Soft / Soft | 2:03.288 | +0.24% | 8 | Soft |
| 8 | Alvaro Bautista | 02:02.818 | +0.838 | 10 | 321.5 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.038 | +0.85% | 8 | Soft |
| 9 | Danilo Petrucci | 02:03.003 | +1.023 | 10 | 323.6 | Medium / Soft | 2:03.604 | +0.50% | 8 | Soft |
| 10 | Valentino Rossi | 02:03.074 | +1.094 | 9 | 318.8 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 11 | Takaaki Nakagami | 02:03.284 | +1.304 | 10 | 313.7 | Soft / Soft | 2:04.988 | +1.63% | 8 | Soft |
| 12 | Scott Redding | 02:03.492 | +1.512 | 8 | 319.9 | Medium / Medium | — | — | ||
| 13 | Andrea Iannone | 02:03.582 | +1.602 | 9 | 315.1 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 14 | Franco Morbidelli | 02:03.652 | +1.672 | 9 | 311.8 | Medium / Medium | — | — | ||
| 15 | Daniel Pedrosa | 02:03.714 | +1.734 | 9 | 317.3 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.517 | +2.06% | 6 | Soft |
| 16 | Hafizh Syahrin | 02:03.724 | +1.744 | 10 | 314.6 | Soft / Soft | 2:05.303 | +1.88% | 8 | Soft |
| 17 | Bradley Smith | 02:03.769 | +1.789 | 9 | 317.6 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.020 | +0.84% | 6 | Soft |
| 18 | Alex Rins | 02:03.865 | +1.885 | 9 | 318.1 | Medium / Soft | 2:04.352 | +1.11% | 5 | Soft |
| 19 | Karel Abraham | 02:03.926 | +1.946 | 10 | 319.7 | Soft / Soft | 2:05.207 | +1.80% | 6 | Soft |
| 20 | Aleix Espargaro | 02:04.538 | +2.558 | 8 | 314.3 | Medium / Soft | — | — | ||
| 21 | Thomas Luthi | 02:04.929 | +2.949 | 10 | 309.3 | Medium / Soft | 2:05.914 | +2.38% | 8 | Soft |
| 22 | Xavier Simeon | 02:05.601 | +3.621 | 8 | 315.9 | Soft / Soft | — | — | ||
| 23 | Loris Baz | 02:05.659 | +3.679 | 9 | 307.1 | Medium / Soft | 2:06.745 | +3.05% | 6 | Soft |
Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.
Long-run pace in practice
| Rider | Pace | Gap | Deg. s/lap | Rear | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Dovizioso | 2:02.833* | — | +0.226 | Medium | 4 |
| Valentino Rossi | 2:03.155* | +0.322 | +0.508 | Medium | 4 |
| Danilo Petrucci | 2:03.405 | +0.572 | +0.574 | Medium | 6 |
| Alvaro Bautista | 2:03.797* | +0.964 | +0.086 | Medium | 3 |
| Loris Baz | 2:05.922 | +3.089 | — | Medium | 5 |
| Xavier Simeon | 2:06.570* | +3.737 | — | Medium | 3 |
Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.
Who will make it to Q2
C21a| Pred. | Rider | P(through) | Actual in Q1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franco Morbidelli | 57% | 3 |
| 2 | Alvaro Bautista | 49% | 11 |
| 3 | Takaaki Nakagami | 35% | 9 |
| 4 | Bradley Smith | 16% | 1 ✓ |
| 5 | Alex Rins | 16% | 2 ✓ |
| 6 | Daniel Pedrosa | 7% | 6 |
| 7 | Aleix Espargaro | 8% | 7 |
| 8 | Hafizh Syahrin | 4% | 13 |
| 9 | Scott Redding | 3% | 4 |
| 10 | Thomas Luthi | 3% | 5 |
| 11 | Karel Abraham | 2% | 10 |
| 12 | Loris Baz | 0% | 8 |
| 13 | Xavier Simeon | 0% | 12 |
Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.
Pole and front row
C21| Pred. | Rider | P(pole) | P(front row) | P(top 6) | Actual in Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Dovizioso | 39% | 72% | 92% | 2 |
| 2 | Cal Crutchlow | 23% | 54% | 86% | 4 |
| 3 | Maverick Viñales | 16% | 49% | 83% | 11 |
| 4 | Marc Marquez | 4% | 36% | 70% | 5 |
| 5 | Jorge Lorenzo | 3% | 26% | 57% | 1 |
| 6 | Jack Miller | 6% | 20% | 57% | 9 |
| 7 | Danilo Petrucci | 1% | 10% | 43% | 6 |
| 8 | Johann Zarco | 3% | 14% | 35% | 3 |
| 9 | Valentino Rossi | 1% | 6% | 26% | 12 |
| 10 | Andrea Iannone | 3% | 6% | 20% | 7 |
| 11 | Bradley Smith | 0% | 6% | 20% | 8 |
| 12 | Alex Rins | 0% | 1% | 12% | 10 |
Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.
Grid penalties
Sprint forecast
C13sWin and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.
Pending · no data yetRace forecast
C13Forecast based on the starting grid.
| Rider | Grid | Win | Podium | Top 5 | Top 10 | P(DNF) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Lorenzo | 1 | 29% | 61% | 78% | 89% | 10% |
| Andrea Dovizioso | 2 | 20% | 52% | 69% | 84% | 13% |
| Johann Zarco | 3 | 16% | 48% | 69% | 87% | 9% |
| Cal Crutchlow | 4 | 9% | 29% | 48% | 67% | 28% |
| Marc Marquez | 5 | 8% | 30% | 53% | 82% | 13% |
| Danilo Petrucci | 6 | 5% | 21% | 40% | 70% | 22% |
| Andrea Iannone | 7 | 3% | 15% | 31% | 65% | 26% |
| Bradley Smith | 8 | 3% | 14% | 33% | 73% | 14% |
| Jack Miller | 9 | 2% | 8% | 19% | 57% | 26% |
| Alex Rins | 10 | 1% | 6% | 15% | 53% | 27% |
| Maverick Viñales | 11 | 1% | 6% | 14% | 58% | 10% |
| Valentino Rossi | 12 | 1% | 4% | 10% | 52% | 9% |
| Franco Morbidelli | 13 | 0% | 3% | 8% | 44% | 8% |
| Scott Redding | 14 | 0% | 2% | 5% | 32% | 16% |
| Thomas Luthi | 15 | 0% | 1% | 3% | 23% | 24% |
| Daniel Pedrosa | 16 | 0% | 1% | 2% | 22% | 12% |
| Aleix Espargaro | 17 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 12% | 25% |
| Loris Baz | 18 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 10% | 20% |
| Takaaki Nakagami | 19 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 7% | 19% |
| Karel Abraham | 20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 32% |
| Alvaro Bautista | 21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 20% |
| Xavier Simeon | 22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 24% |
| Hafizh Syahrin | 23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 19% |
| Tito Rabat | 24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 16% |
What the sprint changed
C13bWho rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.
Pending · no data yetSprint pace
Before the race
What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.
Who rules each sector
C6Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 5,905 m per lap
Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.
© OpenStreetMap contributors
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Maverick Viñales +0.38% | Marc Marquez +0.50% | Pedro Acosta +0.52% |
| S2 | Maverick Viñales +0.28% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.32% | Alex Marquez +0.40% |
| S3 | Ai Ogura +0.14% | Fabio Quartararo +0.42% | Fermin Aldeguer +0.42% |
| S4 | Marc Marquez +0.36% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.40% | Maverick Viñales +0.40% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Raul Fernandez +0.12% | Marc Marquez +0.28% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.32% |
| S2 | Marco Bezzecchi +0.04% | Alex Marquez +0.06% | Raul Fernandez +0.19% |
| S3 | Raul Fernandez +0.00% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.07% | Ai Ogura +0.09% |
| S4 | Alex Marquez +0.14% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.29% | Jorge Martin +0.29% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Marc Marquez | Jack Miller +0.19% | Alex Marquez +0.40% |
| S2 | Alex Marquez +0.06% | Johann Zarco +0.16% | Marc Marquez +0.27% |
| S3 | Fabio Quartararo | Fermin Aldeguer +0.42% | Marc Marquez +0.44% |
| S4 | Fabio Quartararo +0.18% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.37% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.39% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Aleix Espargaro +0.17% | Jorge Martin +0.22% | Marc Marquez +0.22% |
| S2 | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.15% | Aleix Espargaro +0.22% | Jack Miller +0.29% |
| S3 | Aleix Espargaro +0.19% | Fabio Di Giannantonio +0.24% | Enea Bastianini +0.27% |
| S4 | Jorge Martin +0.04% | Aleix Espargaro +0.05% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.10% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Aleix Espargaro +0.51% | Luca Marini +0.56% | Jorge Martin +0.68% |
| S2 | Johann Zarco +0.37% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.41% | Miguel Oliveira +0.45% |
| S3 | Brad Binder +0.22% | Maverick Viñales +0.23% | Johann Zarco +0.24% |
| S4 | Maverick Viñales +0.08% | Marco Bezzecchi +0.23% | Aleix Espargaro +0.38% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Alex Rins +0.05% | Aleix Espargaro +0.18% | Maverick Viñales +0.25% |
| S2 | Alex Rins +0.11% | Maverick Viñales +0.14% | Jack Miller +0.28% |
| S3 | Johann Zarco +0.20% | Jack Miller +0.30% | Maverick Viñales +0.32% |
| S4 | Johann Zarco +0.23% | Francesco Bagnaia +0.23% | Jack Miller +0.32% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Fabio Quartararo | Pol Espargaro +0.41% | Aleix Espargaro +0.41% |
| S2 | Francesco Bagnaia +0.01% | Fabio Quartararo +0.20% | Jack Miller +0.21% |
| S3 | Fabio Quartararo +0.09% | Aleix Espargaro +0.31% | Jack Miller +0.37% |
| S4 | Fabio Quartararo +0.15% | Aleix Espargaro +0.21% | Marc Marquez +0.25% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Fabio Quartararo | Maverick Viñales +0.32% | Alex Rins +0.42% |
| S2 | Fabio Quartararo +0.08% | Marc Marquez +0.09% | Andrea Dovizioso +0.16% |
| S3 | Fabio Quartararo | Marc Marquez +0.17% | Alex Rins +0.53% |
| S4 | Marc Marquez +0.20% | Cal Crutchlow +0.28% | Fabio Quartararo +0.29% |
| Sector | 1 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | Maverick Viñales +0.04% | Andrea Dovizioso +0.15% | Cal Crutchlow +0.49% |
| S2 | Maverick Viñales | Andrea Dovizioso +0.30% | Cal Crutchlow +0.35% |
| S3 | Andrea Dovizioso +0.22% | Marc Marquez +0.25% | Maverick Viñales +0.30% |
| S4 | Maverick Viñales | Cal Crutchlow +0.31% | Johann Zarco +0.55% |
Fastest per sector: 2018
Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.
A track for grid position, or an open one?
C15In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.
When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 6% and 79%; 3 cases).
Descriptive, over 7 races (2019–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.
How they arrive in the standings
| # | Rider | Points | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marc Marquez | 201 | — |
| 2 | Valentino Rossi | 142 | −59 |
| 3 | Jorge Lorenzo | 130 | −71 |
| 4 | Andrea Dovizioso | 129 | −72 |
| 5 | Maverick Viñales | 113 | −88 |
| 6 | Danilo Petrucci | 105 | −96 |
The last race here in numbers
2017 edition
Comeback of the day: Tito Rabat, from P21 to P12.
Longest battle: Alex Rins vs Scott Redding (17 laps).
Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.
Race pace at the last edition
C1Winners here
- 2026Raul FernandezAprilia
- 2025Marco BezzecchiAprilia
- 2024Enea BastianiniDucati
- 2023Aleix EspargaroAprilia
- 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
- 2021Fabio QuartararoYamaha
- 2019Alex RinsSuzuki
- 2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
Attrition here
| Year | DNFs | % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7/23 | 30% |
| 2025 | 3/22 | 14% |
| 2024 | 4/22 | 18% |
| 2023 | 5/22 | 23% |
| 2022 | 2/24 | 8% |
| 2021 | 2/21 | 10% |