Round 11 of 19 Aftermath

Austrian Grand Prix 2018

4.348 m · 28 laps · since 1996

10.08 – 12.08.2018

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Jorge Lorenzo	Ducati	Ducati Team	39:40.688	25
2	Marc Marquez	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+0.130	20
3	Andrea Dovizioso	Ducati	Ducati Team	+1.656	16
4	Cal Crutchlow	Honda	LCR Honda CASTROL	+9.434	13
5	Danilo Petrucci	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+13.169	11
6	Valentino Rossi	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+14.026	10
7	Daniel Pedrosa	Honda	Repsol Honda Team	+14.156	9
8	Alex Rins	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+16.644	8
9	Johann Zarco	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+20.760	7
10	Alvaro Bautista	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+20.844	6
11	Tito Rabat	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	+21.114	5
12	Maverick Viñales	Yamaha	Movistar Yamaha MotoGP	+22.939	4
13	Andrea Iannone	Suzuki	Team SUZUKI ECSTAR	+26.523	3
14	Bradley Smith	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+29.168	2
15	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	LCR Honda IDEMITSU	+30.072	1
16	Hafizh Syahrin	Yamaha	Monster Yamaha Tech 3	+30.343	0
17	Aleix Espargaro	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+31.775	0
18	Jack Miller	Ducati	Alma Pramac Racing	+34.375	0
19	Franco Morbidelli	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+40.171	0
20	Scott Redding	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing Team Gresini	+53.020	0
21	Karel Abraham	Ducati	Angel Nieto Team	+53.261	0
22	Thomas Luthi	Honda	EG 0,0 Marc VDS	+54.355	0
DNF	Xavier Simeon	Ducati	Reale Avintia Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pending · no data yet

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Race (after the grid)	Marc Marquez · 32%	Jorge Lorenzo · 16% · from P3	0.90 / 0.90	2.9 / 3.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Pending · no data yet

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Dovizioso	1:24.584	—	+0.226	Medium	16
Marc Marquez	1:24.707	+0.123	+0.210	Hard	21
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.160	+0.576	+0.574	Medium	20
Valentino Rossi	1:25.185	+0.601	+0.508	Medium	25
Johann Zarco	1:25.410	+0.826	+0.344	Soft	26
Andrea Iannone	1:25.439	+0.855	+0.224	Medium	12
Maverick Viñales	1:25.558	+0.974	+0.292	Soft	25
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.804	+1.220	+0.359	Medium	25
Hafizh Syahrin	1:25.828	+1.244	+0.491	Soft	22
Jack Miller	1:25.836	+1.252	+0.105	Soft	15
Franco Morbidelli	1:25.901	+1.317	+0.512	Soft	25
Alex Rins	1:25.902	+1.318	+0.217	Medium	11
Xavier Simeon	1:26.354	+1.770	—	Soft	4
Thomas Luthi	1:26.692	+2.108	+0.237	Medium	24
Karel Abraham	1:26.946	+2.362	—	Soft	10

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

10/28

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Lorenzo

0.130 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Valentino Rossi, from P14 to P6.

Longest battle: Jorge Lorenzo vs Marc Marquez (28 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Race	14:01:24		Jump start	Jump start
Race	14:16:24	Xavier Simeon	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21

Race: 1 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Jorge Lorenzo (started P3).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Alex Rins	10	5	+5
Takaaki Nakagami	21	17	+4
Jack Miller	16	13	+3
Daniel Pedrosa	9	14	−5
Alvaro Bautista	12	16	−4
Hafizh Syahrin	17	21	−4

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Valentino Rossi	14→6	+5.2
Jorge Lorenzo	3→1	+3.1
Cal Crutchlow	5→4	+1.4
Jack Miller	16→18	−5.5
Andrea Iannone	8→13	−5.7
Thomas Luthi	22→22	−5.7

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	48%	+1.01%	−0.006	0	1	10.9
Soft	48%	+1.56%	+0.018	1	1	13.1
Hard	4%	+0.15%	+0.048	0	1	2.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

24.7 °C

Air

max 24.9 °C

49%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

9 km/h

Wind

gusts 33 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 10.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.830	—	22	312.1	— / —	—			—
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:24.045	+0.215	19	310.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.320	+0.490	22	307.5	Medium / Medium	1:25.400	+0.39%	13	Medium
4	Marc Marquez	01:24.411	+0.581	22	307.8	— / —	—			—
5	Andrea Iannone	01:24.436	+0.606	23	302.6	Medium / Soft	1:26.297	+1.45%	7	Medium
6	Daniel Pedrosa	01:24.474	+0.644	23	310.7	Medium / Soft	1:25.640	+0.67%	16	Medium
7	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.491	+0.661	22	309.8	— / —	—			—
8	Tito Rabat	01:24.676	+0.846	25	311.2	Soft / Soft	1:25.067	—	5	Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:24.767	+0.937	22	305.8	Soft / Soft	1:26.116	+1.23%	12	Medium
10	Maverick Viñales	01:24.835	+1.005	19	305.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Valentino Rossi	01:24.884	+1.054	20	306.2	— / —	—			—
12	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.904	+1.074	22	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:26.936	+2.20%	6	Medium
13	Alvaro Bautista	01:24.938	+1.108	23	308.3	Soft / Medium	1:25.694	+0.74%	12	Medium
14	Alex Rins	01:24.939	+1.109	22	306.7	— / —	—			—
15	Bradley Smith	01:24.973	+1.143	23	305.4	Medium / Soft	1:26.016	+1.12%	10	Medium
16	Takaaki Nakagami	01:25.011	+1.181	23	304.4	Medium / Soft	1:26.050	+1.16%	13	Medium
17	Franco Morbidelli	01:25.107	+1.277	24	305.8	— / —	—			—
18	Jack Miller	01:25.184	+1.354	21	305.4	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Scott Redding	01:25.354	+1.524	21	303.2	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Karel Abraham	01:25.541	+1.711	20	307.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
21	Hafizh Syahrin	01:25.594	+1.764	21	301.2	— / —	—			—
22	Xavier Simeon	01:25.752	+1.922	21	301.8	Soft / Soft	1:27.206	+2.51%	5	Medium
23	Thomas Luthi	01:25.979	+2.149	23	303.8	Medium / Medium	1:26.771	+2.00%	12	Soft

FP2 · 10.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:33.995	—	7	289.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:34.575	—	4	Wet-Soft
2	Scott Redding	01:34.538	+0.543	13	277.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:36.856	+2.41%	9	Wet-Soft
3	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.981	+0.986	8	291.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:35.834	+1.33%	5	Wet-Soft
4	Jorge Lorenzo	01:35.488	+1.493	6	281.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
5	Andrea Dovizioso	01:35.514	+1.519	9	294.3	missing / missing	1:39.951	+5.68%	5	missing
6	Bradley Smith	01:35.970	+1.975	8	286.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.871	+3.49%	5	Wet-Soft
7	Alex Rins	01:35.985	+1.990	14	277.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.813	+3.42%	7	Wet-Soft
8	Jack Miller	01:36.135	+2.140	10	292.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:36.861	+2.42%	5	Wet-Soft
9	Cal Crutchlow	01:36.202	+2.207	11	276.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.454	+3.04%	6	Wet-Soft
10	Valentino Rossi	01:36.327	+2.332	14	276.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.996	+3.62%	7	Wet-Soft
11	Andrea Iannone	01:36.384	+2.389	10	277.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:37.840	+3.45%	5	Wet-Soft
12	Xavier Simeon	01:36.950	+2.955	8	277.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.200	+4.89%	6	Wet-Soft
13	Franco Morbidelli	01:37.105	+3.110	10	280.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:38.362	+4.00%	8	Wet-Soft
14	Tito Rabat	01:37.296	+3.301	10	271.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:38.856	+4.53%	6	Wet-Soft
15	Johann Zarco	01:37.361	+3.366	14	272.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.498	+5.21%	7	Wet-Soft
16	Aleix Espargaro	01:37.552	+3.557	5	276.7	Wet-Medium / Wet-Soft	—			—
17	Thomas Luthi	01:37.772	+3.777	9	278.4	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:41.640	+7.47%	6	Wet-Soft
18	Karel Abraham	01:37.876	+3.881	13	271.9	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:40.308	+6.06%	7	Wet-Soft
19	Hafizh Syahrin	01:38.072	+4.077	14	276.2	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:39.897	+5.63%	11	Wet-Soft
20	Maverick Viñales	01:38.174	+4.179	8	272.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
21	Alvaro Bautista	01:38.892	+4.897	11	282.3	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	1:40.453	+6.22%	8	Wet-Soft
22	Takaaki Nakagami	01:39.349	+5.354	12	274.7	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
23	Daniel Pedrosa	01:39.911	+5.916	4	273.0	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—

FP3 · 11.08 partly wet

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:26.496	—	8	305.1	Medium / Soft	1:28.989	—	5	Soft
2	Bradley Smith	01:28.280	+1.784	11	299.0	Soft / Soft	—			—
3	Scott Redding	01:28.478	+1.982	14	295.2	Soft / Soft	1:31.160	+2.44%	5	Soft
4	Cal Crutchlow	01:28.653	+2.157	14	302.0	Medium / Medium	1:31.583	+2.92%	5	Medium
5	Thomas Luthi	01:28.744	+2.248	19	298.2	Soft / Soft	1:33.624	+5.21%	12	Wet-Medium
6	Jack Miller	01:28.967	+2.471	12	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:31.629	+2.97%	5	Soft
7	Andrea Dovizioso	01:29.008	+2.512	10	307.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
8	Alex Rins	01:29.014	+2.518	15	302.6	missing / missing	1:30.540	+1.74%	5	missing
9	Hafizh Syahrin	01:29.206	+2.710	14	301.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
10	Maverick Viñales	01:29.208	+2.712	21	299.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.447	+6.13%	15	Soft
11	Xavier Simeon	01:29.762	+3.266	14	301.0	Soft / Soft	1:32.693	+4.16%	6	Soft
12	Karel Abraham	01:30.255	+3.759	19	301.0	Soft / Soft	1:37.018	+9.02%	7	Wet-Soft
13	Johann Zarco	01:30.390	+3.894	20	297.5	Soft / Soft	1:34.648	+6.36%	8	Wet-Soft
14	Jorge Lorenzo	01:30.687	+4.191	10	300.6	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
15	Valentino Rossi	01:31.375	+4.879	22	294.5	Medium / Soft	1:33.994	+5.62%	12	Wet-Medium
16	Alvaro Bautista	01:31.644	+5.148	19	298.5	Soft / Soft	1:36.101	+7.99%	7	Wet-Soft
17	Daniel Pedrosa	01:32.239	+5.743	13	289.0	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	—			—
18	Takaaki Nakagami	01:32.363	+5.867	19	295.9	Wet-Medium / Wet-Medium	1:32.962	+4.47%	5	Wet-Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.451	+5.955	17	288.8	Soft / Soft	1:35.635	+7.47%	9	Wet-Medium
—	Aleix Espargaro	01:38.257	+11.761	3	263.6	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
—	Andrea Iannone	01:35.186	+8.690	5	263.5	Wet-Soft / Wet-Soft	—			—
—	Danilo Petrucci	01:34.465	+7.969	7	297.1	Wet-Soft / Wet-Medium	—			—
Retired	Tito Rabat		—	0	0.0	— / —	—			—

FP4 · 11.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:24.139	—	16	306.8	Medium / Soft	1:24.824	—	8	Soft
2	Jorge Lorenzo	01:24.357	+0.218	15	308.1	Soft / Soft	1:25.011	+0.22%	5	Soft
3	Andrea Dovizioso	01:24.446	+0.307	17	314.5	Hard / Soft	1:25.600	+0.92%	12	Soft
4	Andrea Iannone	01:24.649	+0.510	17	304.4	Medium / Medium	1:28.330	+4.13%	4	Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.699	+0.560	18	309.8	Hard / Hard	1:25.861	+1.22%	5	Medium
6	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.802	+0.663	16	310.5	Hard / Hard	1:25.242	+0.49%	10	Hard
7	Alvaro Bautista	01:24.809	+0.670	19	308.7	Soft / Soft	1:25.802	+1.15%	11	Medium
8	Johann Zarco	01:24.915	+0.776	15	304.7	Medium / Soft	1:26.093	+1.50%	7	Soft
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:24.922	+0.783	18	307.8	Medium / Medium	1:25.704	+1.04%	13	Medium
10	Alex Rins	01:24.946	+0.807	16	304.3	Medium / Medium	1:25.842	+1.20%	11	Soft
11	Tito Rabat	01:24.967	+0.828	20	307.9	Soft / Soft	1:25.248	+0.50%	13	Soft
12	Valentino Rossi	01:25.137	+0.998	17	304.9	Medium / Medium	1:25.694	+1.03%	13	Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	01:25.147	+1.008	16	305.6	Medium / Medium	1:28.469	+4.30%	5	Soft
14	Bradley Smith	01:25.210	+1.071	17	305.7	Medium / Medium	1:25.514	+0.81%	12	Medium
15	Scott Redding	01:25.249	+1.110	16	302.0	Medium / Medium	1:26.073	+1.47%	11	Soft
16	Jack Miller	01:25.363	+1.224	16	310.9	Medium / Soft	1:25.912	+1.28%	10	Soft
17	Hafizh Syahrin	01:25.478	+1.339	16	307.6	Soft / Soft	1:26.040	+1.43%	12	Soft
18	Xavier Simeon	01:25.554	+1.415	14	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:26.023	+1.41%	5	Medium
19	Franco Morbidelli	01:25.704	+1.565	17	304.3	Medium / Medium	1:26.542	+2.03%	13	Medium
20	Aleix Espargaro	01:25.838	+1.699	17	306.2	Medium / Soft	1:26.337	+1.78%	13	Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:25.904	+1.765	17	301.1	Medium / Medium	1:26.993	+2.56%	12	Medium
22	Karel Abraham	01:26.052	+1.913	15	308.3	Soft / Soft	1:26.711	+2.23%	6	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:26.192	+2.053	15	297.7	Medium / Soft	1:26.812	+2.34%	8	Soft

Q1 · 11.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Alvaro Bautista	01:24.195	—	10	310.2	Soft / Soft
2	Alex Rins	01:24.230	+0.035	9	304.9	Medium / Soft
3	Bradley Smith	01:24.245	+0.050	8	304.3	Medium / Soft
4	Valentino Rossi	01:24.309	+0.114	9	307.2	Medium / Soft
5	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.762	+0.567	9	305.1	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:24.767	+0.572	9	305.8	Medium / Soft
7	Jack Miller	01:24.805	+0.610	8	308.3	Medium / Soft
8	Hafizh Syahrin	01:24.834	+0.639	9	302.6	Soft / Soft
9	Xavier Simeon	01:24.868	+0.673	9	299.5	Soft / Soft
10	Scott Redding	01:25.067	+0.872	9	306.1	Medium / Medium
11	Takaaki Nakagami	01:25.178	+0.983	10	301.4	Medium / Soft
12	Thomas Luthi	01:25.310	+1.115	9	302.9	Medium / Soft
13	Karel Abraham	01:25.339	+1.144	9	305.6	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 11.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:23.241	—	10	312.7	Medium / Soft
2	Andrea Dovizioso	01:23.243	+0.002	9	310.1	Soft / Medium
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:23.376	+0.135	9	309.3	Soft / Soft
4	Danilo Petrucci	01:23.503	+0.262	9	309.5	Medium / Soft
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:23.812	+0.571	9	310.1	Medium / Soft
6	Johann Zarco	01:23.887	+0.646	9	306.9	Medium / Soft
7	Tito Rabat	01:23.922	+0.681	9	311.5	Soft / Soft
8	Andrea Iannone	01:24.091	+0.850	9	303.9	Medium / Medium
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:24.124	+0.883	10	308.2	Medium / Soft
10	Alex Rins	01:24.227	+0.986	8	305.5	Medium / Soft
11	Maverick Viñales	01:24.284	+1.043	9	307.0	Medium / Soft
12	Alvaro Bautista	01:24.342	+1.101	9	307.6	Soft / Soft

Warm Up · 12.08

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Andrea Dovizioso	01:24.138	—	12	315.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	01:24.239	+0.101	14	308.4	Medium / Hard	1:24.460	—	10	Hard
3	Jorge Lorenzo	01:24.564	+0.426	11	308.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
4	Andrea Iannone	01:24.633	+0.495	13	306.8	Medium / Medium	1:25.043	+0.69%	7	Medium
5	Cal Crutchlow	01:24.636	+0.498	12	308.8	Medium / Medium	1:24.948	+0.58%	6	Medium
6	Bradley Smith	01:24.785	+0.647	14	305.7	Medium / Soft	1:25.074	+0.73%	10	Soft
7	Aleix Espargaro	01:24.828	+0.690	14	307.6	Medium / Medium	1:25.410	+1.13%	12	Medium
8	Alex Rins	01:24.856	+0.718	12	304.7	Hard / Medium	1:25.362	+1.07%	5	Soft
9	Daniel Pedrosa	01:24.898	+0.760	14	312.1	Medium / Hard	1:25.385	+1.10%	12	Hard
10	Maverick Viñales	01:24.964	+0.826	14	308.7	Medium / Soft	1:25.718	+1.49%	12	Soft
11	Valentino Rossi	01:24.971	+0.833	14	306.3	Medium / Medium	1:25.428	+1.15%	11	Medium
12	Danilo Petrucci	01:24.992	+0.854	12	309.6	Medium / Medium	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:25.147	+1.009	14	311.4	Medium / Soft	1:25.482	+1.21%	12	Soft
14	Johann Zarco	01:25.181	+1.043	13	304.9	Medium / Medium	1:25.343	+1.05%	9	Medium
15	Alvaro Bautista	01:25.193	+1.055	14	309.9	Soft / Soft	1:25.430	+1.15%	11	Soft
16	Tito Rabat	01:25.221	+1.083	12	308.2	Soft / Soft	1:25.443	+1.16%	5	Soft
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:25.310	+1.172	12	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:25.549	+1.29%	5	Medium
18	Hafizh Syahrin	01:25.322	+1.184	13	307.0	Medium / Soft	1:25.740	+1.52%	5	Soft
19	Scott Redding	01:25.444	+1.306	13	302.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
20	Franco Morbidelli	01:25.536	+1.398	14	300.3	Medium / Soft	1:25.807	+1.60%	11	Soft
21	Karel Abraham	01:25.587	+1.449	13	307.3	Soft / Soft	1:26.550	+2.48%	8	Soft
22	Xavier Simeon	01:25.614	+1.476	12	302.6	Soft / Soft	1:25.827	+1.62%	7	Soft
23	Thomas Luthi	01:26.439	+2.301	14	295.5	Medium / Medium	1:27.016	+3.03%	12	Medium

Race · 12.08

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Jorge Lorenzo	39:40.688	25	28	— / —	—			—
2	Marc Marquez	+0.130	20	28	Medium / Hard	1:24.707	+0.15%	21	Hard
3	Andrea Dovizioso	+1.656	16	28	Medium / Medium	1:24.584	—	16	Medium
4	Cal Crutchlow	+9.434	13	28	— / —	—			—
5	Danilo Petrucci	+13.169	11	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.160	+0.68%	20	Medium
6	Valentino Rossi	+14.026	10	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.185	+0.71%	25	Medium
7	Daniel Pedrosa	+14.156	9	28	— / —	—			—
8	Alex Rins	+16.644	8	28	Hard / Medium	1:25.902	+1.56%	11	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+20.760	7	28	Medium / Soft	1:25.410	+0.98%	26	Soft
10	Alvaro Bautista	+20.844	6	28	Soft / Soft	—			—
11	Tito Rabat	+21.114	5	28	Soft / Soft	—			—
12	Maverick Viñales	+22.939	4	28	Medium / Soft	1:25.558	+1.15%	25	Soft
13	Andrea Iannone	+26.523	3	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.439	+1.01%	12	Medium
14	Bradley Smith	+29.168	2	28	— / —	—			—
15	Takaaki Nakagami	+30.072	1	28	Medium / Medium	1:25.804	+1.44%	25	Medium
16	Hafizh Syahrin	+30.343	0	28	Medium / Soft	1:25.828	+1.47%	22	Soft
17	Aleix Espargaro	+31.775	0	28	— / —	—			—
18	Jack Miller	+34.375	0	28	Medium / Soft	1:25.836	+1.48%	15	Soft
19	Franco Morbidelli	+40.171	0	28	Medium / Soft	1:25.901	+1.56%	25	Soft
20	Scott Redding	+53.020	0	28	— / —	—			—
21	Karel Abraham	+53.261	0	28	Soft / Soft	1:26.946	+2.79%	10	Soft
22	Thomas Luthi	+54.355	0	28	Medium / Medium	1:26.692	+2.49%	24	Medium
Retired	Xavier Simeon		0	10	Soft / Soft	1:26.354	+2.09%	4	Soft

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Andrea Iannone	1:24.846	—	+0.224	Medium	5
Cal Crutchlow	1:24.939	+0.093	+0.729	Medium	9
Daniel Pedrosa	1:25.208	+0.362	+0.089	Medium	5
Danilo Petrucci	1:25.218	+0.372	+0.574	Medium	7
Bradley Smith	1:25.315	+0.469	+0.085	Medium	5
Scott Redding	1:25.433	+0.587	+0.263	Medium	7
Valentino Rossi	1:25.439	+0.593	+0.508	Medium	8
Takaaki Nakagami	1:25.555	+0.709	+0.359	Medium	8
Franco Morbidelli	1:25.974*	+1.128	+0.512	Medium	4
Thomas Luthi	1:26.839	+1.993	+0.237	Medium	8

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Alvaro Bautista	56%	1 ✓
2	Aleix Espargaro	49%	5
3	Alex Rins	35%	2 ✓
4	Bradley Smith	16%	3
5	Takaaki Nakagami	16%	11
6	Valentino Rossi	7%	4
7	Jack Miller	8%	7
8	Scott Redding	4%	10
9	Hafizh Syahrin	3%	8
10	Xavier Simeon	3%	9
11	Franco Morbidelli	2%	6
12	Thomas Luthi	0%	12
13	Karel Abraham	0%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Jorge Lorenzo	40%	71%	92%	3
2	Marc Marquez	22%	53%	86%	1
3	Andrea Iannone	16%	49%	84%	8
4	Andrea Dovizioso	4%	36%	69%	2
5	Daniel Pedrosa	3%	27%	57%	9
6	Tito Rabat	6%	20%	57%	7
7	Cal Crutchlow	1%	10%	43%	5
8	Johann Zarco	3%	14%	35%	6
9	Danilo Petrucci	1%	6%	26%	4
10	Alvaro Bautista	3%	6%	20%	12
11	Alex Rins	0%	6%	20%	10
12	Maverick Viñales	0%	1%	12%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Franco Morbidelli	16	19	+3	FIM MotoGP Stewards grid penalty for rider #21

Sprint forecast

C13s

Win and podium chances in Saturday’s sprint, based on the grid.

Pending · no data yet

Race forecast

C13

Forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marc Marquez	1	32%	61%	76%	86%	13%	2
Andrea Dovizioso	2	21%	54%	71%	84%	13%	3
Jorge Lorenzo	3	16%	50%	69%	88%	10%	1
Danilo Petrucci	4	10%	33%	53%	73%	23%	5
Cal Crutchlow	5	6%	24%	44%	67%	28%	4
Johann Zarco	6	5%	25%	50%	83%	9%	9
Tito Rabat	7	4%	17%	37%	75%	16%	11
Andrea Iannone	8	2%	10%	24%	61%	26%	13
Daniel Pedrosa	9	2%	8%	21%	67%	12%	7
Alex Rins	10	1%	5%	14%	52%	28%	8
Maverick Viñales	11	1%	4%	13%	57%	10%	12
Alvaro Bautista	12	0%	3%	8%	44%	20%	10
Bradley Smith	13	0%	2%	7%	40%	14%	14
Valentino Rossi	14	0%	2%	5%	36%	9%	6
Aleix Espargaro	15	0%	1%	3%	24%	25%	17
Jack Miller	16	0%	1%	2%	19%	27%	18
Hafizh Syahrin	17	0%	0%	1%	14%	20%	16
Xavier Simeon	18	0%	0%	1%	11%	20%	—
Franco Morbidelli	19	0%	0%	1%	8%	8%	19
Scott Redding	20	0%	0%	1%	5%	16%	20
Takaaki Nakagami	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	20%	15
Thomas Luthi	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	26%	22
Karel Abraham	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	32%	21

What the sprint changed

C13b

Who rises and who drops in the race forecast after the sprint.

Pending · no data yet

Sprint pace

Pending · no data yet

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,347 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.05%	Marc Marquez +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.38%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.34%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.46%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.36%	Jorge Martin +0.37%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%	Maverick Viñales +0.49%	Pedro Acosta +0.56%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta	Jorge Martin +0.23%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.22%	Jorge Martin +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.33%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.31%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.36%	Pedro Acosta +0.37%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.34%	Jorge Martin +0.36%	Ai Ogura +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%
S2	Alex Marquez +0.00%	Marc Marquez +0.33%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.45%
S3	Fermin Aldeguer +0.05%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.02%	Alex Marquez +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.33%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.18%	Marc Marquez +0.34%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.46%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jorge Martin +0.25%	Pol Espargaro +0.29%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Maverick Viñales +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.01%	Jorge Martin +0.08%	Brad Binder +0.31%
S2	Brad Binder +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.31%	Fabio Quartararo +0.42%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.01%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.06%	Brad Binder +0.20%
S4	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.35%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.07%	Fabio Quartararo +0.29%	Jack Miller +0.32%
S2	Jack Miller +0.13%	Enea Bastianini +0.16%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S3	Aleix Espargaro	Alex Rins +0.54%	Jack Miller +0.62%
S4	Luca Marini +0.09%	Brad Binder +0.21%	Johann Zarco +0.28%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.18%	Miguel Oliveira +0.36%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Fabio Quartararo +0.16%	Johann Zarco +0.31%
S3	Aleix Espargaro +0.18%	Joan Mir +0.19%	Iker Lecuona +0.19%
S4	Fabio Quartararo	Enea Bastianini +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.46%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.01%	Jack Miller +0.04%	Johann Zarco +0.32%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Pol Espargaro +0.44%	Maverick Viñales +0.57%
S3	Pol Espargaro +0.35%	Danilo Petrucci +0.39%	Alex Rins +0.54%
S4	Maverick Viñales +0.11%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.23%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.30%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jack Miller +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.43%
S2	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Maverick Viñales +0.27%
S3	Marc Marquez	Danilo Petrucci +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.23%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Fabio Quartararo +0.18%	Takaaki Nakagami +0.32%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.08%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.09%
S2	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.17%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.70%
S3	Danilo Petrucci	Marc Marquez +0.26%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez	Jorge Lorenzo +0.18%	Andrea Dovizioso +0.28%

Fastest per sector: 2018

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

62/100

Position index

11%

Pole wins

67%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 33% of the time (between 12% and 65%; 9 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	181	—
2	Valentino Rossi	132	−49
3	Andrea Dovizioso	113	−68
4	Maverick Viñales	109	−72
5	Jorge Lorenzo	105	−76
6	Johann Zarco	97	−84

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2017 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

3 leaders

9/28

Laps led by the winner

Andrea Dovizioso

0.176 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Alvaro Bautista, from P17 to P8.

Longest battle: Andrea Dovizioso vs Marc Marquez (28 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

Pending · no data yet

Winners here

2026Pedro AcostaKTM
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Brad BinderKTM
2020Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2019Andrea DoviziosoDucati

Attrition here

Average here 14% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	1/22	5%
2025	2/20	10%
2024	2/24	8%
2023	3/23	13%
2022	5/25	20%
2021	3/20	15%

Tyres at the last edition

Pending · no data yet