Round 17 of 22 Aftermath

Japanese Grand Prix 2025

4.801 m · 24 laps · since 1999

26.09 – 28.09.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	42:09.312	25
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+4.196	20
3	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+6.858	16
4	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+10.128	13
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.421	11
6	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+14.544	10
7	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+17.588	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+21.160	8
9	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+21.733	7
10	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+23.107	6
11	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+23.616	5
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.882	4
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+29.359	3
14	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+30.788	2
15	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+30.990	1
16	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+31.712	0
17	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+34.157	0
18	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+34.792	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	20:59.113	12
2	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+1.842	9
3	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+3.674	7
4	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+4.300	6
5	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+5.130	5
6	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+8.913	4
7	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+9.102	3
8	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.334	2
9	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+10.480	1
10	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+11.487	0
11	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+13.492	0
12	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.823	0
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+15.425	0
14	Takaaki Nakagami	Honda	Honda HRC Test Team	+16.352	0
15	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+18.211	0
16	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+20.706	0
17	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+21.883	0
18	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+43.428	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Francesco Bagnaia · 32% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 32% · from P1	0.86 / 0.86	1.9 / 1.9
Race (after the grid)	Francesco Bagnaia · 29% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 29% · from P1	0.73 / 0.73	2.4 / 2.4
Race (after the sprint)	Francesco Bagnaia · 35% ✓	Francesco Bagnaia · 35% · from P1	0.75 / 0.73	2.1 / 2.5

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:45.082	—	+0.221	Medium	22
Marc Marquez	1:45.165	+0.083	+0.210	Medium	19
Joan Mir	1:45.418	+0.336	+0.562	Medium	19
Franco Morbidelli	1:45.518	+0.436	+0.512	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.601	+0.519	+0.553	Medium	22
Pedro Acosta	1:45.656	+0.574	+0.448	Medium	21
Alex Marquez	1:45.694	+0.612	+0.356	Medium	22
Raul Fernandez	1:45.762	+0.680	+0.667	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:45.986	+0.904	+0.344	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:45.989	+0.907	+0.327	Medium	22
Enea Bastianini	1:46.010	+0.928	+0.319	Medium	22
Fermin Aldeguer	1:46.024	+0.942	+0.884	Medium	22
Fabio Quartararo	1:46.042	+0.960	+0.275	Medium	22
Takaaki Nakagami	1:46.159	+1.077	+0.359	Medium	14
Jack Miller	1:46.182	+1.100	+0.105	Medium	18
Maverick Viñales	1:46.203	+1.121	+0.292	Medium	20
Somkiat Chantra	1:46.242	+1.160	+0.221	Medium	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:46.280	+1.198	+0.193	Medium	22
Alex Rins	1:46.298	+1.216	+0.217	Medium	22
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:46.326	+1.244	+0.320	Medium	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

4.196 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P19 to P11.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Johann Zarco (22 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

12/12

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.842 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Maverick Viñales, from P23 to P16.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Luca Marini (12 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:02:38	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:02:38	Jorge Martin	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:16:20	Enea Bastianini	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Sprint	15:23:01	Jack Miller	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:23:19	Johann Zarco	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:07:44	Luca Marini	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Race	14:37:20	Takaaki Nakagami	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:39:48	Jack Miller	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue

Race: 3 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 6 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Francesco Bagnaia (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	16	13	+3
Marco Bezzecchi	9	7	+2
Pedro Acosta	4	2	+2
Miguel Oliveira	15	18	−3
Jack Miller	13	16	−3
Luca Marini	7	10	−3

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marco Bezzecchi	9→4	+4.0
Enea Bastianini	19→11	+3.4
Marc Marquez	3→2	+2.1
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12→13	−3.1
Alex Rins	17→18	−4.9
Pedro Acosta	4→17	−12.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	100%	+0.87%	+0.047	1	3	9.5

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.3 °C

Air

max 26.6 °C

61%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

6 km/h

Wind

gusts 30 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.857	—	17	315.7	Hard / Medium	1:45.365	+0.11%	5	Medium
2	Jorge Martin	01:44.950	+0.093	18	311.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:44.959	+0.102	17	316.7	Hard / Medium	1:46.100	+0.81%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.128	+0.271	17	315.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
5	Luca Marini	01:45.159	+0.302	18	316.7	Hard / Medium	1:45.252	—	4	Medium
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:45.162	+0.305	16	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
7	Pedro Acosta	01:45.200	+0.343	16	316.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Jack Miller	01:45.227	+0.370	16	313.0	Hard / Medium	—			—
9	Somkiat Chantra	01:45.278	+0.421	20	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:46.333	+1.03%	14	Medium
10	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.357	+0.500	17	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Marco Bezzecchi	01:45.372	+0.515	7	313.9	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Joan Mir	01:45.423	+0.566	15	315.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Johann Zarco	01:45.499	+0.642	17	313.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
14	Raul Fernandez	01:45.500	+0.643	13	309.4	Soft / Medium	1:45.797	+0.52%	5	Medium
15	Alex Marquez	01:45.500	+0.643	17	315.7	Hard / Medium	—			—
16	Fabio Quartararo	01:45.517	+0.660	16	310.3	Hard / Medium	1:45.785	+0.51%	4	Medium
17	Takaaki Nakagami	01:45.688	+0.831	16	310.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Ai Ogura	01:45.731	+0.874	18	311.2	Soft / Medium	1:46.714	+1.39%	13	Medium
19	Brad Binder	01:45.750	+0.893	18	314.8	Soft / Medium	1:46.036	+0.75%	8	Medium
20	Fermin Aldeguer	01:45.759	+0.902	17	313.9	Hard / Medium	—			—
21	Maverick Viñales	01:45.817	+0.960	18	315.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Alex Rins	01:45.865	+1.008	18	314.8	Hard / Medium	1:46.224	+0.92%	11	Medium
23	Enea Bastianini	01:45.866	+1.009	15	313.0	Hard / Medium	—			—

Practice · 26.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.193	—	27	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:44.936	+0.29%	12	Medium
2	Pedro Acosta	01:43.329	+0.136	19	318.5	Medium / Soft	1:45.382	+0.71%	5	Medium
3	Marc Marquez	01:43.360	+0.167	22	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Joan Mir	01:43.361	+0.168	22	316.7	Medium / Soft	1:45.137	+0.48%	10	Soft
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.391	+0.198	21	313.9	Medium / Soft	1:44.636	—	5	Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:43.503	+0.310	23	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:45.126	+0.47%	4	Soft
7	Francesco Bagnaia	01:43.539	+0.346	20	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
8	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.594	+0.401	26	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:44.842	+0.20%	12	Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	01:43.666	+0.473	22	313.0	Medium / Soft	1:44.952	+0.30%	5	Medium
10	Johann Zarco	01:43.734	+0.541	22	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Fermin Aldeguer	01:43.742	+0.549	21	311.2	Medium / Soft	1:44.862	+0.22%	6	Medium
12	Enea Bastianini	01:43.743	+0.550	22	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jorge Martin	01:43.784	+0.591	20	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Ai Ogura	01:43.784	+0.591	20	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Alex Marquez	01:43.784	+0.591	20	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:45.411	+0.74%	5	Medium
16	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.828	+0.635	21	313.9	Soft / Soft	1:44.747	+0.11%	5	Soft
17	Brad Binder	01:43.855	+0.662	24	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:45.252	+0.59%	5	Medium
18	Somkiat Chantra	01:43.911	+0.718	22	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Alex Rins	01:44.013	+0.820	21	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Jack Miller	01:44.113	+0.920	21	314.8	Medium / Soft	1:45.108	+0.45%	11	Soft
21	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.202	+1.009	24	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.654	+1.461	23	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:45.482	+0.81%	6	Soft
23	Maverick Viñales	01:44.801	+1.608	21	314.8	Soft / Soft	1:47.218	+2.47%	5	Medium

FP2 · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Pedro Acosta	01:44.108	—	13	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
2	Ai Ogura	01:44.233	+0.125	13	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
3	Marc Marquez	01:44.321	+0.213	10	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.338	+0.230	12	317.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.341	+0.233	10	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
6	Luca Marini	01:44.420	+0.312	13	315.7	Medium / Soft	1:44.905	+0.30%	5	Soft
7	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.521	+0.413	15	314.8	Medium / Medium	1:44.589	—	5	Soft
8	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.528	+0.420	13	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.591	+0.483	12	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Alex Marquez	01:44.630	+0.522	12	312.1	Medium / Soft	1:44.829	+0.23%	6	Soft
11	Joan Mir	01:44.634	+0.526	13	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:44.644	+0.536	13	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
13	Jack Miller	01:44.667	+0.559	12	316.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Fermin Aldeguer	01:44.676	+0.568	12	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Jorge Martin	01:44.873	+0.765	11	313.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Johann Zarco	01:44.882	+0.774	11	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
17	Raul Fernandez	01:44.892	+0.784	12	312.1	Medium / Medium	—			—
18	Enea Bastianini	01:44.939	+0.831	12	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:45.007	+0.899	10	315.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
20	Maverick Viñales	01:45.079	+0.971	10	313.9	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Alex Rins	01:45.143	+1.035	10	312.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
22	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.226	+1.118	11	314.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:45.946	+1.838	11	312.1	Medium / Medium	—			—

Q1 · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.253	—	6	314.8	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:43.267	+0.014	8	313.9	Medium / Soft
3	Ai Ogura	01:43.429	+0.176	8	314.8	Medium / Soft
4	Jack Miller	01:43.450	+0.197	8	312.1	Medium / Soft
5	Fermin Aldeguer	01:43.454	+0.201	5	311.2	Medium / Soft
6	Miguel Oliveira	01:43.551	+0.298	8	312.1	Medium / Soft
7	Jorge Martin	01:43.587	+0.334	7	313.0	Medium / Soft
8	Brad Binder	01:43.694	+0.441	6	315.7	Medium / Soft
9	Alex Rins	01:43.918	+0.665	7	313.0	Medium / Soft
10	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.082	+0.829	8	315.7	Medium / Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:44.178	+0.925	8	315.7	Medium / Soft
12	Somkiat Chantra	01:44.192	+0.939	8	310.3	Medium / Soft
13	Maverick Viñales	01:44.710	+1.457	7	313.0	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Francesco Bagnaia	01:42.911	—	8	315.7	Medium / Soft
2	Joan Mir	01:43.003	+0.092	8	316.7	Medium / Soft
3	Marc Marquez	01:43.043	+0.132	7	315.7	Medium / Soft
4	Pedro Acosta	01:43.069	+0.158	4	316.7	Medium / Soft
5	Fabio Quartararo	01:43.155	+0.244	7	310.3	Medium / Soft
6	Franco Morbidelli	01:43.170	+0.259	7	313.9	Medium / Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:43.259	+0.348	8	317.6	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Marquez	01:43.271	+0.360	8	313.9	Medium / Soft
9	Marco Bezzecchi	01:43.323	+0.412	8	318.5	Medium / Soft
10	Raul Fernandez	01:43.353	+0.442	8	313.9	Medium / Soft
11	Johann Zarco	01:43.542	+0.631	8	314.8	Medium / Soft
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:43.571	+0.660	8	315.7	Medium / Soft

Sprint · 27.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	20:59.113	12	12	Medium / Soft	1:44.214	—	10	Soft
2	Marc Marquez	+1.842	9	12	Medium / Soft	1:44.616	+0.39%	10	Soft
3	Pedro Acosta	+3.674	7	12	Medium / Soft	1:44.578	+0.35%	9	Soft
4	Joan Mir	+4.300	6	12	Medium / Soft	1:44.604	+0.37%	10	Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	+5.130	5	12	Medium / Soft	1:44.693	+0.46%	10	Soft
6	Fabio Quartararo	+8.913	4	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.056	+0.81%	10	Soft
7	Luca Marini	+9.102	3	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.046	+0.80%	9	Soft
8	Raul Fernandez	+10.334	2	12	Medium / Medium	1:45.320	+1.06%	10	Medium
9	Ai Ogura	+10.480	1	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.326	+1.07%	10	Soft
10	Alex Marquez	+11.487	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.270	+1.01%	10	Soft
11	Fermin Aldeguer	+13.492	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.338	+1.08%	10	Soft
12	Brad Binder	+13.823	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.322	+1.06%	10	Soft
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+15.425	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.370	+1.11%	10	Soft
14	Takaaki Nakagami	+16.352	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.708	+1.43%	10	Soft
15	Miguel Oliveira	+18.211	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.628	+1.36%	10	Soft
16	Maverick Viñales	+20.706	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.765	+1.49%	9	Soft
17	Somkiat Chantra	+21.883	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.862	+1.58%	10	Soft
18	Alex Rins	+43.428	0	12	Medium / Soft	1:45.180	+0.93%	9	Soft
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	6	Medium / Soft	1:45.099	+0.85%	4	Soft
Retired	Jack Miller		0	11	Medium / Soft	1:45.114	+0.86%	9	Soft
Retired	Johann Zarco		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:45.196	+0.94%	7	Soft
Out on lap 1	Jorge Martin		0	0	— / —	—			—
Out on lap 1	Marco Bezzecchi		0	0	— / —	—			—

Warm Up · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marc Marquez	01:43.755	—	6	313.9	Medium / Medium
2	Fermin Aldeguer	01:44.111	+0.356	6	309.4	Medium / Medium
3	Marco Bezzecchi	01:44.121	+0.366	6	313.9	Medium / Medium
4	Luca Marini	01:44.355	+0.600	6	318.5	Medium / Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:44.368	+0.613	6	313.9	Medium / Medium
6	Francesco Bagnaia	01:44.461	+0.706	6	315.7	Medium / Medium
7	Miguel Oliveira	01:44.547	+0.792	6	314.8	Medium / Medium
8	Joan Mir	01:44.603	+0.848	6	315.7	Medium / Medium
9	Fabio Quartararo	01:44.611	+0.856	6	309.4	Medium / Medium
10	Jack Miller	01:44.728	+0.973	6	312.1	Medium / Medium
11	Franco Morbidelli	01:44.793	+1.038	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
12	Pedro Acosta	01:44.794	+1.039	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
13	Maverick Viñales	01:44.802	+1.047	6	312.1	Medium / Medium
14	Takaaki Nakagami	01:44.820	+1.065	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
15	Johann Zarco	01:44.856	+1.101	6	313.9	Medium / Medium
16	Enea Bastianini	01:44.981	+1.226	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
17	Raul Fernandez	01:45.000	+1.245	6	312.1	Medium / Medium
18	Alex Rins	01:45.027	+1.272	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
19	Somkiat Chantra	01:45.039	+1.284	6	311.2	Medium / Medium
20	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:45.056	+1.301	6	315.7	Medium / Medium
21	Ai Ogura	01:45.169	+1.414	6	313.0	Medium / Medium
22	Brad Binder	01:45.373	+1.618	6	313.9	Medium / Medium

Race · 28.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Francesco Bagnaia	42:09.312	25	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.082	—	22	Medium
2	Marc Marquez	+4.196	20	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.165	+0.08%	19	Medium
3	Joan Mir	+6.858	16	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.418	+0.32%	19	Medium
4	Marco Bezzecchi	+10.128	13	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.601	+0.49%	22	Medium
5	Franco Morbidelli	+10.421	11	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.518	+0.42%	22	Medium
6	Alex Marquez	+14.544	10	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.694	+0.58%	22	Medium
7	Raul Fernandez	+17.588	9	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.762	+0.65%	22	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	+21.160	8	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.042	+0.91%	22	Medium
9	Johann Zarco	+21.733	7	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.986	+0.86%	22	Medium
10	Fermin Aldeguer	+23.107	6	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.024	+0.90%	22	Medium
11	Enea Bastianini	+23.616	5	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.010	+0.88%	22	Medium
12	Brad Binder	+23.882	4	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.989	+0.86%	22	Medium
13	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+29.359	3	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.326	+1.18%	22	Medium
14	Miguel Oliveira	+30.788	2	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.280	+1.14%	22	Medium
15	Somkiat Chantra	+30.990	1	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.242	+1.10%	22	Medium
16	Maverick Viñales	+31.712	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.203	+1.07%	20	Medium
17	Pedro Acosta	+34.157	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:45.656	+0.55%	21	Medium
18	Alex Rins	+34.792	0	24	Medium / Medium	1:46.298	+1.16%	22	Medium
Retired	Jack Miller		0	21	Medium / Medium	1:46.182	+1.05%	18	Medium
Retired	Luca Marini		0	2	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Takaaki Nakagami		0	19	Medium / Medium	1:46.159	+1.03%	14	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Fermin Aldeguer	1:44.177*	—	+0.884	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.749	+0.572	+0.221	Medium	6
Miguel Oliveira	1:44.769*	+0.592	+0.193	Medium	3
Luca Marini	1:44.774	+0.597	+0.308	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:44.883*	+0.706	+0.356	Medium	3
Franco Morbidelli	1:44.913*	+0.736	+0.512	Medium	3
Jack Miller	1:44.950	+0.773	+0.105	Medium	6
Marco Bezzecchi	1:44.957	+0.780	+0.553	Medium	7
Raul Fernandez	1:44.980	+0.803	+0.667	Medium	9
Maverick Viñales	1:45.140*	+0.963	+0.292	Medium	4
Brad Binder	1:45.224*	+1.047	+0.327	Medium	4
Enea Bastianini	1:45.267*	+1.090	+0.319	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.286	+1.109	+0.275	Medium	6
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.300	+1.123	+0.320	Medium	6
Johann Zarco	1:45.398	+1.221	+0.344	Medium	6

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Ai Ogura	57%	3
2	Alex Marquez	43%	2 ✓
3	Franco Morbidelli	28%	1 ✓
4	Fermin Aldeguer	22%	5
5	Enea Bastianini	19%	11
6	Brad Binder	11%	8
7	Jorge Martin	7%	7
8	Takaaki Nakagami	4%	10
9	Jack Miller	3%	4
10	Alex Rins	3%	9
11	Somkiat Chantra	4%	12
12	Miguel Oliveira	2%	6
13	Maverick Viñales	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Pedro Acosta	39%	66%	88%	4
2	Marc Marquez	21%	53%	81%	3
3	Marco Bezzecchi	13%	45%	75%	9
4	Francesco Bagnaia	5%	32%	67%	1
5	Luca Marini	4%	25%	54%	7
6	Joan Mir	6%	22%	55%	2
7	Fabio Quartararo	1%	13%	41%	5
8	Franco Morbidelli	3%	15%	38%	6
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	8%	31%	12
10	Alex Marquez	2%	8%	25%	8
11	Raul Fernandez	2%	9%	28%	10
12	Johann Zarco	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Race	Jorge Martin	17	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)
Race	Ai Ogura	13	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	32%	63%	77%	86%	13%	1
Joan Mir	2	18%	48%	63%	75%	24%	4
Marc Marquez	3	15%	49%	70%	88%	10%	2
Pedro Acosta	4	11%	38%	61%	83%	14%	3
Fabio Quartararo	5	6%	28%	53%	82%	13%	6
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	23%	47%	84%	8%	5
Luca Marini	7	4%	17%	38%	79%	10%	7
Alex Marquez	8	3%	12%	28%	73%	12%	10
Marco Bezzecchi	9	1%	6%	18%	65%	14%	—
Raul Fernandez	10	1%	5%	15%	66%	6%	8
Johann Zarco	11	1%	3%	9%	48%	21%	—
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12	1%	2%	7%	43%	15%	13
Jack Miller	13	0%	1%	5%	36%	8%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	8%	11
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	1%	2%	20%	12%	15
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	1%	15%	18%	12
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	10%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	12%	14
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	0%	1%	5%	9%	—
Somkiat Chantra	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	4%	17
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	8%	16
Ai Ogura	22	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%	9
Jorge Martin	23	0%	0%	0%	2%	5%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Francesco Bagnaia	1	35%	63%	72%	77%	22%	1
Joan Mir	2	15%	42%	55%	62%	37%	3
Marc Marquez	3	21%	57%	73%	82%	16%	2
Pedro Acosta	4	12%	41%	64%	79%	20%	17
Fabio Quartararo	5	7%	31%	58%	84%	13%	8
Franco Morbidelli	6	5%	29%	55%	79%	16%	5
Luca Marini	7	3%	21%	48%	86%	8%	—
Alex Marquez	8	0%	2%	10%	51%	23%	6
Marco Bezzecchi	9	1%	6%	20%	69%	16%	4
Raul Fernandez	10	0%	2%	11%	58%	19%	7
Johann Zarco	11	0%	4%	16%	63%	19%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	12	0%	0%	2%	31%	17%	13
Jack Miller	13	0%	1%	7%	47%	25%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	14	0%	0%	1%	25%	19%	10
Miguel Oliveira	15	0%	0%	1%	16%	22%	14
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	2%	33%	14%	12
Alex Rins	17	0%	0%	0%	4%	21%	18
Takaaki Nakagami	18	0%	0%	0%	7%	14%	—
Enea Bastianini	19	0%	1%	4%	35%	18%	11
Somkiat Chantra	20	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	15
Maverick Viñales	21	0%	0%	0%	2%	13%	16
Ai Ogura	22	0%	0%	0%	7%	26%	—
Jorge Martin	23	0%	0%	0%	0%	21%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marc Marquez	46% → 57%	+11	16% → 21%
Francesco Bagnaia	55% → 63%	+8	29% → 35%
Pedro Acosta	37% → 41%	+4	12% → 12%
Dropping
Alex Marquez	14% → 2%	−12	2% → 0%
Raul Fernandez	6% → 2%	−4	1% → 0%
Fabio Di Giannantonio	3% → 0%	−3	0% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.214	—	+0.221	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:44.578	+0.364	+0.448	Soft	9
Joan Mir	1:44.604	+0.390	+0.562	Soft	10
Marc Marquez	1:44.616	+0.402	+0.210	Soft	10
Franco Morbidelli	1:44.693	+0.479	+0.512	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:45.046	+0.832	+0.308	Soft	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:45.056	+0.842	+0.275	Soft	10
Enea Bastianini	1:45.099	+0.885	+0.319	Soft	4
Jack Miller	1:45.114	+0.900	+0.105	Soft	9
Alex Rins	1:45.180	+0.966	+0.217	Soft	9
Johann Zarco	1:45.196	+0.982	+0.344	Soft	7
Alex Marquez	1:45.270	+1.056	+0.356	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:45.320	+1.106	+0.667	Medium	10
Brad Binder	1:45.322	+1.108	+0.327	Soft	10
Ai Ogura	1:45.326	+1.112	+0.300	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:45.338	+1.124	+0.884	Soft	10
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.370	+1.156	+0.320	Soft	10
Miguel Oliveira	1:45.628	+1.414	+0.193	Soft	10
Takaaki Nakagami	1:45.708	+1.494	+0.359	Soft	10
Maverick Viñales	1:45.765	+1.551	+0.292	Soft	9
Somkiat Chantra	1:45.862	+1.648	+0.221	Soft	10

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,812 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Marc Marquez +0.37%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.29%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.17%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Marc Marquez +0.28%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.16%	Pedro Acosta +0.30%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Pedro Acosta +0.09%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%	Franco Morbidelli +0.34%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.21%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.24%	Luca Marini +0.32%
S3	Marc Marquez +0.04%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.23%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%
S4	Francesco Bagnaia	Marc Marquez +0.10%	Joan Mir +0.37%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Pedro Acosta +0.14%	Jorge Martin +0.21%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Brad Binder +0.65%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Pedro Acosta +0.43%
S4	Pedro Acosta	Enea Bastianini +0.24%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.25%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.20%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia	Jorge Martin +0.15%	Brad Binder +0.23%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.14%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Augusto Fernandez +0.42%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.10%	Jorge Martin +0.15%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jack Miller	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Miguel Oliveira +0.38%
S2	Jack Miller	Aleix Espargaro +0.23%	Brad Binder +0.37%
S3	Jorge Martin	Jack Miller +0.28%	Marc Marquez +0.35%
S4	Jack Miller	Francesco Bagnaia +0.48%	Jorge Martin +0.63%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez +0.11%	Alex Rins +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.39%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.22%	Danilo Petrucci +0.33%	Fabio Quartararo +0.33%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Franco Morbidelli +0.24%
S4	Marc Marquez	Maverick Viñales +0.18%	Fabio Quartararo +0.61%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marc Marquez	Andrea Dovizioso +0.21%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S2	Andrea Iannone +0.09%	Cal Crutchlow +0.35%	Maverick Viñales +0.50%
S3	Marc Marquez	Andrea Iannone +0.37%	Cal Crutchlow +0.40%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.02%	Marc Marquez +0.15%	Cal Crutchlow +0.25%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

24/100

Position index

50%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.77

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 50% of the time (between 22% and 79%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 6 races (2018–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	512	—
2	Alex Marquez	330	−182
3	Francesco Bagnaia	237	−275
4	Marco Bezzecchi	229	−283
5	Pedro Acosta	188	−324
6	Franco Morbidelli	180	−332

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

24/24

Laps led by the winner

Francesco Bagnaia

1.189 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jorge Martin, from P11 to P2.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Johann Zarco (21 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:44.964	—	+0.221	Medium	22
Jorge Martin	1:45.092	+0.128	+0.457	Medium	20
Marc Marquez	1:45.206	+0.242	+0.210	Medium	21
Enea Bastianini	1:45.288	+0.324	+0.319	Medium	21
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:45.778	+0.814	+0.320	Medium	20
Franco Morbidelli	1:45.783	+0.819	+0.512	Medium	22
Marco Bezzecchi	1:45.812	+0.848	+0.553	Medium	22
Brad Binder	1:45.886	+0.922	+0.327	Medium	20
Augusto Fernandez	1:46.018	+1.054	+0.437	Medium	4
Maverick Viñales	1:46.056	+1.092	+0.292	Medium	8

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2024Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Jack MillerDucati
2019Marc MarquezHonda
2018Marc MarquezHonda
2017Andrea DoviziosoDucati
2016Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 18% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	3/21	14%
2024	6/23	26%
2023	2/21	10%
2022	5/25	20%
2019	2/22	9%
2018	4/25	16%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	95%	+1.04%	+0.042	1	3	8.8
Soft	5%	+1.31%	+0.007	0	0	13.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.