Round 18 of 22 Aftermath

Indonesian Grand Prix 2025

4.313 m · 27 laps · since 2022

03.10 – 05.10.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	41:07.651	25
2	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.987	20
3	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.896	16
4	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+8.901	13
5	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+9.129	11
6	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+9.709	10
7	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+9.894	9
8	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.087	8
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.350	7
10	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+13.223	6
11	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+19.769	5
12	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+27.597	4
13	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+48.035	3
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+55.540	2
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	Out on lap 1	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	19:37.047	12
2	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+0.157	9
3	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+4.062	7
4	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+5.832	6
5	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+8.759	5
6	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+9.772	4
7	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.980	3
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+12.096	2
9	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+12.988	1
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+13.312	0
11	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+15.905	0
12	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+16.226	0
13	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+17.621	0
14	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+29.393	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	Out on lap 1	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 29% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 29% · from P1	0.59 / 0.59	2.9 / 2.8
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 30%	Fermin Aldeguer · 21% · from P2	0.64 / 0.64	2.5 / 2.6
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 38%	Fermin Aldeguer · 25% · from P2	0.80 / 0.64	2.1 / 2.6

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

21/27

Laps led by the winner

Fermin Aldeguer

6.987 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P15 to P4.

Longest battle: Jack Miller vs Miguel Oliveira (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

1/13

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

0.157 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Joan Mir, from P12 to P5.

Longest battle: Brad Binder vs Miguel Oliveira (7 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:03:25	Somkiat Chantra	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:04:46	Marc Marquez	Long lap	long lap penalty due to irresponsible riding
Sprint	15:05:47	Marc Marquez	Long lap	long lap penalty - COMPLETE
Sprint	15:07:02	Enea Bastianini	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:08:36	Pedro Acosta	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:50	Pedro Acosta	Retired	entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:32	Johann Zarco	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:20:56	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint			Sanction	FIM MotoGP Stewards sanction, 8 seconds penalty for rider #10 due to Technical regulations infringement.
Race	15:02:38	Marc Marquez	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK - Medical Centre
Race	15:02:40	Marco Bezzecchi	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:05:01	Joan Mir	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:06:07	Joan Mir	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	15:14:34	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK
Race	15:20:52	Enea Bastianini	Retired	entered pits and retired
Race	15:38:53	Jack Miller	Crash	crashed out - Rider OK

Sprint: 2 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Pedro Acosta (started P5).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Brad Binder	15	9	+6
Joan Mir	12	7	+5
Johann Zarco	18	14	+4
Miguel Oliveira	10	12	−2
Raul Fernandez	3	5	−2
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	13	−2

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Brad Binder	15→4	+7.8
Alex Marquez	7→3	+3.7
Pedro Acosta	5→2	+3.4
Miguel Oliveira	10→11	−2.4
Jack Miller	14→14	−2.8
Alex Rins	4→10	−5.2

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	82%	+0.36%	+0.004	1	3	7.0
Soft	18%	+0.43%	+0.032	0	0	9.3

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

29.4 °C

Air

max 30.5 °C

71%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

11 km/h

Wind

gusts 31 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Marc Marquez	56%	2 ✓
2	Franco Morbidelli	43%	3
3	Jack Miller	28%	4
4	Brad Binder	22%	5
5	Francesco Bagnaia	19%	6
6	Enea Bastianini	11%	7
7	Johann Zarco	7%	8
8	Fabio Di Giannantonio	4%	1 ✓
9	Maverick Viñales	3%	10
10	Somkiat Chantra	3%	9

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	38%	66%	88%	1
2	Fermin Aldeguer	21%	53%	81%	2
3	Pedro Acosta	13%	45%	75%	5
4	Fabio Quartararo	6%	33%	67%	8
5	Raul Fernandez	4%	25%	53%	3
6	Luca Marini	6%	22%	55%	6
7	Miguel Oliveira	1%	13%	41%	10
8	Joan Mir	3%	15%	38%	12
9	Alex Marquez	3%	8%	30%	7
10	Alex Rins	2%	8%	25%	4
11	Marc Marquez	2%	9%	28%	9
12	Fabio Di Giannantonio	1%	4%	19%	11

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Maverick Viñales	20	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)
Race	Maverick Viñales	20	—	—	absent del Grid.pdf (pit lane / no surt)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	29%	58%	72%	82%	16%	1
Fermin Aldeguer	2	23%	58%	77%	91%	8%	2
Raul Fernandez	3	16%	51%	72%	90%	6%	3
Alex Rins	4	11%	40%	63%	86%	10%	12
Pedro Acosta	5	7%	26%	51%	81%	13%	—
Luca Marini	6	5%	21%	44%	83%	10%	13
Alex Marquez	7	3%	15%	34%	77%	12%	4
Fabio Quartararo	8	2%	11%	28%	74%	13%	—
Marc Marquez	9	1%	6%	18%	70%	10%	6
Miguel Oliveira	10	1%	5%	13%	59%	11%	9
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	1%	3%	9%	49%	15%	8
Joan Mir	12	1%	2%	5%	39%	23%	5
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	2%	5%	36%	8%	7
Jack Miller	14	0%	1%	3%	28%	9%	11
Brad Binder	15	0%	1%	2%	19%	17%	10
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	1%	1%	15%	13%	14
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	1%	1%	9%	11%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	1%	5%	22%	—
Somkiat Chantra	19	0%	0%	1%	4%	4%	—
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	—

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	38%	70%	79%	84%	16%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	2	25%	59%	72%	80%	18%	1
Raul Fernandez	3	17%	52%	69%	79%	19%	6
Alex Rins	4	1%	7%	21%	66%	21%	10
Pedro Acosta	5	6%	27%	51%	77%	19%	2
Luca Marini	6	3%	19%	45%	86%	9%	5
Alex Marquez	7	6%	27%	49%	74%	23%	3
Fabio Quartararo	8	1%	10%	28%	75%	13%	7
Marc Marquez	9	3%	18%	40%	77%	16%	—
Miguel Oliveira	10	0%	2%	10%	53%	21%	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	11	0%	3%	12%	58%	16%	9
Joan Mir	12	1%	5%	14%	51%	36%	—
Franco Morbidelli	13	0%	1%	7%	48%	16%	8
Jack Miller	14	0%	0%	2%	23%	25%	14
Brad Binder	15	0%	0%	2%	32%	14%	4
Francesco Bagnaia	16	0%	0%	0%	13%	22%	—
Enea Bastianini	17	0%	0%	0%	9%	18%	—
Johann Zarco	18	0%	0%	0%	10%	19%	12
Somkiat Chantra	19	0%	0%	0%	5%	12%	13
Maverick Viñales	20	0%	0%	0%	3%	13%	—

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Marco Bezzecchi	59% → 70%	+11	30% → 38%
Alex Marquez	18% → 27%	+9	4% → 6%
Marc Marquez	9% → 18%	+8	2% → 3%
Dropping
Alex Rins	34% → 7%	−27	11% → 1%
Luca Marini	25% → 19%	−7	6% → 3%
Miguel Oliveira	6% → 2%	−4	1% → 0%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,313 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.31%	Pedro Acosta +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.51%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi +0.12%	Jorge Martin +0.46%	Maverick Viñales +0.52%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.32%	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.43%	Aleix Espargaro +0.48%	Franco Morbidelli +0.50%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.01%	Pedro Acosta +0.11%	Luca Marini +0.23%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.58%	Alex Rins +0.91%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.13%	Luca Marini +0.27%	Pedro Acosta +0.35%
S4	Pedro Acosta +0.19%	Miguel Oliveira +0.47%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.48%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Enea Bastianini	Jorge Martin +0.26%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.33%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Jorge Martin +0.42%	Enea Bastianini +0.50%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.21%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.33%	Jorge Martin +0.45%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Jorge Martin +0.32%	Maverick Viñales +0.36%	Enea Bastianini +0.43%
S2	Maverick Viñales +0.09%	Jorge Martin +0.38%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.39%
S3	Jorge Martin +0.03%	Maverick Viñales +0.23%	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.29%	Aleix Espargaro +0.36%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.36%	Marc Marquez +0.38%	Jorge Martin +0.41%
S2	Aleix Espargaro +0.27%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.28%	Maverick Viñales +0.33%
S3	Franco Morbidelli +0.07%	Miguel Oliveira +0.13%	Marc Marquez +0.68%
S4	Fabio Quartararo +0.35%	Franco Morbidelli +0.40%	Miguel Oliveira +0.77%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

In between: the grid matters, but there is room to come back.

38/100

Position index

25%

Pole wins

50%

Front row on the podium

0.65

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 25% of the time (between 5% and 70%; 4 cases).

Descriptive, over 4 races (2022–2025). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	541	—
2	Alex Marquez	340	−201
3	Francesco Bagnaia	274	−267
4	Marco Bezzecchi	242	−299
5	Franco Morbidelli	196	−345
6	Pedro Acosta	195	−346

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

27/27

Laps led by the winner

Jorge Martin

1.404 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Brad Binder, from P19 to P8.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Raul Fernandez (16 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Jorge Martin	1:31.006	—	+0.457	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:31.043	+0.037	+0.319	Medium	17
Pedro Acosta	1:31.061	+0.055	+0.448	Medium	24
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.141	+0.135	+0.221	Medium	25
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.238	+0.232	+0.512	Medium	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.244	+0.238	+0.553	Medium	24
Maverick Viñales	1:31.282	+0.276	+0.292	Medium	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.331	+0.325	+0.275	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:31.493	+0.487	+0.327	Medium	22
Johann Zarco	1:31.520	+0.514	+0.344	Medium	24

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2025Fermin AldeguerDucati
2024Jorge MartinDucati
2023Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2022Miguel OliveiraKTM

Attrition here

Average here 27% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2025	5/19	26%
2024	9/21	43%
2023	7/21	33%
2022	2/23	9%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	94%	+0.45%	−0.022	1	3	6.5
Soft	6%	+0.77%	−0.102	0	0	—

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.