MotoGP Data dominance · tyre · race pace
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Round 16 of 22 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2025

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980
12.09 – 14.09.2025
Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo Team41:20.89825
2Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing+0.56820
3Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+7.73416
4Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+10.37913
5Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+11.33011
6Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+16.06910
7Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+17.9659
8Fabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+20.9648
9Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+21.5657
10Brad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+23.1096
11Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+24.5925
12Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+27.4924
13Jorge MartinApriliaAprilia Racing+29.9373
14Augusto FernandezYamahaYamaha Factory Racing+61.5042
15Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+61.9321
16Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+0.0000
DNFAi OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFAlex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFEnea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3Retired0
DNFFrancesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0
DNFJoan MirHondaHonda HRC CastrolOut on lap 10
DNFMaverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3Retired0
DNFPedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0

Sprint result

Pos.RiderBikeTeamTime / gapPoints
1Marco BezzecchiApriliaAprilia Racing19:52.96612
2Alex MarquezDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+1.0009
3Fabio Di GiannantonioDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+2.5517
4Franco MorbidelliDucatiPertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team+3.5266
5Pedro AcostaKTMRed Bull KTM Factory Racing+6.8345
6Fermin AldeguerDucatiBK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP+6.9604
7Luca MariniHondaHonda HRC Castrol+9.3073
8Jorge MartinApriliaAprilia Racing+11.0272
9Raul FernandezApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+11.5941
10Enea BastianiniKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+12.9280
11Johann ZarcoHondaCASTROL Honda LCR+15.4900
12Ai OguraApriliaTrackhouse MotoGP Team+15.6000
13Francesco BagnaiaDucatiDucati Lenovo Team+16.1290
14Jack MillerYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+16.7270
15Maverick ViñalesKTMRed Bull KTM Tech3+16.8610
16Miguel OliveiraYamahaPrima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP+17.5760
17Alex RinsYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team+18.7160
18Augusto FernandezYamahaYamaha Factory Racing+27.8930
19Somkiat ChantraHondaIDEMITSU Honda LCR+28.3330
DNFBrad BinderKTMRed Bull KTM Factory RacingRetired0
DNFFabio QuartararoYamahaMonster Energy Yamaha MotoGP TeamRetired0
DNFMarc MarquezDucatiDucati Lenovo TeamRetired0

Forecast vs reality

C14
ForecastFavouriteWinnerOrder (model / grid)Position error (model / calibrated grid)
SprintMarco Bezzecchi · 30% ✓Marco Bezzecchi · 30% · from P10.84 / 0.842.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)Marco Bezzecchi · 27%Marc Marquez · 12% · from P40.88 / 0.882.1 / 2.1
Race (after the sprint)Marco Bezzecchi · 30%Marc Marquez · 8% · from P40.86 / 0.882.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marc Marquez1:31.609—+0.210Medium21
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.623+0.014+0.553Medium22
Pedro Acosta1:31.873+0.264+0.448Medium5
Alex Marquez1:31.887+0.278+0.356Medium22
Franco Morbidelli1:31.994+0.385+0.512Medium22
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:32.097+0.488+0.320Medium21
Francesco Bagnaia1:32.103+0.494+0.221Medium6
Fermin Aldeguer1:32.190+0.581+0.884Medium22
Luca Marini1:32.196+0.587+0.308Medium24
Enea Bastianini1:32.254+0.645+0.319Medium9
Fabio Quartararo1:32.286+0.677+0.275Medium22
Miguel Oliveira1:32.409+0.800+0.193Medium23
Raul Fernandez1:32.419+0.810+0.667Medium23
Brad Binder1:32.430+0.821+0.327Medium21
Jorge Martin1:32.476+0.867+0.457Medium22
Jack Miller1:32.508+0.899+0.105Medium23
Alex Rins1:32.658+1.049+0.217Medium7
Johann Zarco1:33.172+1.563+0.344Medium21
Augusto Fernandez1:33.568+1.959+0.437Medium25
Somkiat Chantra1:33.849+2.240+0.221Soft22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

19
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
16/27
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
0.568 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

33
Overtakes
0
Lead changes
1 leaders
13/13
Laps led by the winner
Marco Bezzecchi
1.000 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Franco Morbidelli (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

SessionTimeRiderWhatDetail
Sprint15:08:36Fabio QuartararoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:11:11Marc MarquezCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Sprint15:12:24Fabio QuartararoRetiredEntered pits and retired
Sprint15:17:31Brad BinderTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Race13:38:39Jorge MartinTechnical problemStopped with technical issue in the sighting lap
Race13:43:09Jorge MartinPit-lane startStarting warm up lap from pit lane
Race14:02:50Johann ZarcoCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:02:50Joan MirCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:03:45Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to incorrect start procedure
Race14:05:22Augusto FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to jump start
Race14:05:28Alex RinsLong lapDouble long lap penalty due to jump start
Race14:06:45Ai OguraCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:09:03Maverick ViñalesCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:09:58Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:10:18Augusto FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:10:33Alex RinsLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race14:11:10Jorge MartinLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:11:20Augusto FernandezLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:11:27Alex RinsLong lapDouble long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race14:13:43Pedro AcostaTechnical problemStopped with technical issue
Race14:15:32Francesco BagnaiaCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:17:17Alex RinsCrashCrashed out - Rider OK
Race14:20:37Enea BastianiniCrashCrashed out - Rider OK

Race: 11 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The tyre gamble

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Medium91%+0.72%−0.004138.1
Soft9%+2.45%−0.0130015.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25
26.8 °C
Air
max 27.4 °C
56%
Humidity
Dry
Rain
3 km/h
Wind
gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Franco Morbidelli01:31.342—17298.3Soft / Medium——
2Fabio Quartararo01:31.591+0.24918295.0Soft / Medium1:32.083+0.14%5Medium
3Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.596+0.25420300.8Soft / Medium1:31.957—5Medium
4Alex Marquez01:31.600+0.25820297.5Soft / Medium1:32.646+0.75%6Medium
5Marc Marquez01:31.611+0.26921300.8Soft / Medium1:32.641+0.74%9Medium
6Luca Marini01:31.613+0.27119302.5Soft / Medium1:32.781+0.90%5Medium
7Pedro Acosta01:31.663+0.32120301.6Soft / Medium——
8Marco Bezzecchi01:31.675+0.33322300.0Soft / Medium1:32.033+0.08%5Medium
9Raul Fernandez01:31.809+0.46719296.7Soft / Medium1:33.300+1.46%10Medium
10Jorge Martin01:31.840+0.49818300.0Medium / Soft——
11Francesco Bagnaia01:31.929+0.58719300.0Soft / Medium1:32.748+0.86%6Medium
12Joan Mir01:31.978+0.63622300.0Soft / Medium1:32.689+0.80%13Medium
13Jack Miller01:32.015+0.67319297.5Medium / Soft——
14Miguel Oliveira01:32.017+0.67516298.3Soft / Medium——
15Enea Bastianini01:32.159+0.81719299.1Soft / Medium1:34.826+3.12%6Medium
16Fermin Aldeguer01:32.285+0.94318296.7Soft / Medium1:33.783+1.99%5Medium
17Maverick Viñales01:32.306+0.96419295.8Soft / Medium——
18Alex Rins01:32.471+1.12919295.8Soft / Medium——
19Ai Ogura01:32.509+1.16720295.8Soft / Medium1:33.870+2.08%14Medium
20Brad Binder01:32.510+1.16823301.6Soft / Medium1:33.291+1.45%11Medium
21Augusto Fernandez01:32.537+1.19517292.6Soft / Medium1:33.237+1.39%12Medium
22Johann Zarco01:32.924+1.58217299.1Soft / Medium——
23Somkiat Chantra01:33.584+2.24222296.7Soft / Medium1:35.038+3.35%13Medium
Practice · 12.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:30.480—28298.3Medium / Soft1:31.827+0.28%10Medium
2Marco Bezzecchi01:30.627+0.14729300.0Medium / Soft1:31.574—13Soft
3Franco Morbidelli01:30.673+0.19322297.5Medium / Soft1:32.212+0.70%6Soft
4Francesco Bagnaia01:30.710+0.23024298.3Medium / Soft1:32.271+0.76%5Medium
5Alex Marquez01:30.752+0.27227295.8Medium / Soft1:31.803+0.25%6Medium
6Joan Mir01:30.819+0.33924299.1Medium / Soft1:32.393+0.89%10Soft
7Luca Marini01:30.848+0.36825300.0Medium / Soft1:31.968+0.43%5Medium
8Jorge Martin01:30.857+0.37725297.5Medium / Soft——
9Pedro Acosta01:30.889+0.40928300.0Medium / Soft1:32.910+1.46%6Medium
10Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.915+0.43520296.7Medium / Soft——
11Johann Zarco01:31.068+0.58824299.1Medium / Soft——
12Fabio Quartararo01:31.090+0.61026293.4Medium / Medium1:31.846+0.30%12Soft
13Brad Binder01:31.166+0.68624300.8Medium / Soft1:32.311+0.81%12Soft
14Maverick Viñales01:31.249+0.76924294.2Medium / Soft——
15Raul Fernandez01:31.487+1.00722295.8Medium / Soft1:31.878+0.33%11Medium
16Jack Miller01:31.500+1.02026296.7Medium / Soft1:32.543+1.06%5Soft
17Enea Bastianini01:31.572+1.09223297.5Medium / Medium1:32.303+0.80%10Soft
18Fermin Aldeguer01:31.616+1.13627297.5Medium / Soft1:32.196+0.68%5Medium
19Augusto Fernandez01:31.678+1.19820289.5Medium / Soft1:32.956+1.51%9Soft
20Alex Rins01:31.682+1.20227295.8Medium / Soft1:32.513+1.03%5Medium
21Ai Ogura01:31.688+1.20826296.7Medium / Soft1:32.426+0.93%11Medium
22Miguel Oliveira01:32.369+1.88921298.3Medium / Soft——
23Somkiat Chantra01:32.516+2.03623293.4Medium / Soft——
FP2 · 13.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi01:30.624—16300.8Medium / Soft1:31.280+0.05%6Medium
2Franco Morbidelli01:30.914+0.29016300.0Medium / Soft1:31.238—4Soft
3Luca Marini01:31.194+0.57014303.3Medium / Soft——
4Pedro Acosta01:31.201+0.57714303.3Medium / Soft1:32.039+0.88%5Soft
5Marc Marquez01:31.206+0.58215302.5Medium / Soft1:31.798+0.61%5Soft
6Alex Marquez01:31.236+0.61215300.0Medium / Soft1:31.440+0.22%6Soft
7Fabio Quartararo01:31.296+0.67212296.7Medium / Soft1:31.807+0.62%6Soft
8Francesco Bagnaia01:31.344+0.72015300.0Medium / Soft——
9Fabio Di Giannantonio01:31.379+0.75514298.3Medium / Soft——
10Fermin Aldeguer01:31.401+0.77711300.8Medium / Soft1:31.974+0.81%5Soft
11Enea Bastianini01:31.643+1.01915301.6Medium / Soft——
12Raul Fernandez01:31.761+1.13712296.7Medium / Soft1:31.980+0.81%5Soft
13Jorge Martin01:31.811+1.18711299.1Medium / Soft——
14Ai Ogura01:31.870+1.24612300.8Medium / Soft1:33.052+1.99%5Soft
15Brad Binder01:31.944+1.32014297.5Medium / Soft——
16Jack Miller01:31.950+1.32612299.1Medium / Soft1:32.466+1.35%5Soft
17Maverick Viñales01:32.010+1.38613295.8Medium / Soft——
18Alex Rins01:32.015+1.39111296.7Medium / Soft——
19Miguel Oliveira01:32.030+1.40613299.1Medium / Soft1:34.605+3.69%5Soft
20Johann Zarco01:32.299+1.67514300.8Medium / Soft——
21Augusto Fernandez01:32.664+2.04013292.6Medium / Soft1:33.802+2.81%6Soft
22Somkiat Chantra01:32.871+2.2479299.1Soft / Soft——
RetiredJoan Mir—00.0Soft / Soft——
Q1 · 13.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Fabio Quartararo01:30.481—9295.0Medium / Soft
2Fermin Aldeguer01:30.852+0.3719296.7Medium / Soft
3Miguel Oliveira01:30.944+0.4638300.0Medium / Soft
4Raul Fernandez01:30.977+0.4969299.1Medium / Soft
5Ai Ogura01:30.977+0.4969297.5Medium / Soft
6Brad Binder01:31.015+0.5348298.3Medium / Soft
7Maverick Viñales01:31.087+0.6067294.2Medium / Soft
8Alex Rins01:31.244+0.7639298.3Medium / Soft
9Johann Zarco01:31.272+0.7918300.8Medium / Soft
10Enea Bastianini01:31.364+0.8837297.5Medium / Soft
11Jack Miller01:31.377+0.8968296.7Medium / Soft
12Augusto Fernandez01:31.812+1.3318293.4Medium / Soft
13Somkiat Chantra01:32.390+1.9098296.7Medium / Soft
Q2 · 13.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)
1Marco Bezzecchi01:30.134—9300.8Medium / Soft
2Alex Marquez01:30.222+0.0889300.0Medium / Soft
3Fabio Quartararo01:30.228+0.0949295.0Medium / Soft
4Marc Marquez01:30.352+0.2188298.3Medium / Soft
5Franco Morbidelli01:30.383+0.2498299.1Medium / Soft
6Luca Marini01:30.390+0.2569302.5Medium / Soft
7Fabio Di Giannantonio01:30.395+0.2619300.8Medium / Soft
8Francesco Bagnaia01:30.414+0.2809300.8Medium / Soft
9Pedro Acosta01:30.486+0.3529300.8Medium / Soft
10Fermin Aldeguer01:30.616+0.4825296.7Medium / Soft
11Jorge Martin01:30.981+0.8478298.3Medium / Soft
RetiredJoan Mir—00.0— / —
Sprint · 13.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marco Bezzecchi19:52.9661213Medium / Soft1:31.420+0.05%11Soft
2Alex Marquez+1.000913Medium / Soft1:31.372—10Soft
3Fabio Di Giannantonio+2.551713Medium / Soft1:31.474+0.11%11Soft
4Franco Morbidelli+3.526613Medium / Soft1:31.475+0.11%10Soft
5Pedro Acosta+6.834513Medium / Soft1:31.733+0.40%10Soft
6Fermin Aldeguer+6.960413Medium / Soft1:31.787+0.45%10Soft
7Luca Marini+9.307313Medium / Soft1:31.919+0.60%11Soft
8Jorge Martin+11.027213Medium / Soft1:31.966+0.65%10Soft
9Raul Fernandez+11.594113Medium / Soft1:32.025+0.72%11Soft
10Enea Bastianini+12.928013Medium / Soft1:32.132+0.83%11Soft
11Johann Zarco+15.490013Medium / Soft1:32.278+0.99%11Soft
12Ai Ogura+15.600013Medium / Soft1:32.258+0.97%10Soft
13Francesco Bagnaia+16.129013Medium / Soft1:32.301+1.02%11Soft
14Jack Miller+16.727013Medium / Soft1:32.347+1.07%11Soft
15Maverick Viñales+16.861013Medium / Soft1:32.414+1.14%10Soft
16Miguel Oliveira+17.576013Medium / Soft1:32.410+1.14%9Soft
17Alex Rins+18.716013Medium / Soft1:32.470+1.20%10Soft
18Augusto Fernandez+27.893013Medium / Soft1:33.344+2.16%11Soft
19Somkiat Chantra+28.333013Medium / Soft1:33.259+2.07%9Soft
RetiredBrad Binder09Medium / Soft1:32.274+0.99%7Soft
RetiredFabio Quartararo05Medium / Soft——
RetiredMarc Marquez05Medium / Soft——
Warm Up · 14.09
Pos.RiderBest lapGapLapsTop km/hTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez01:31.386—7301.6Soft / Medium——
2Marco Bezzecchi01:31.424+0.0387303.3Soft / Medium1:32.063—5Medium
3Alex Marquez01:31.460+0.0747300.8Soft / Medium1:32.363+0.33%5Medium
4Fabio Quartararo01:31.604+0.2187295.0Medium / Medium1:32.085+0.02%5Medium
5Miguel Oliveira01:31.823+0.4377300.0Soft / Medium1:32.314+0.27%4Medium
6Luca Marini01:31.836+0.4507302.5Soft / Medium1:32.232+0.18%4Medium
7Jack Miller01:31.948+0.5627299.1Medium / Medium1:34.063+2.17%5Medium
8Pedro Acosta01:31.967+0.5817303.3Soft / Medium1:32.726+0.72%5Medium
9Francesco Bagnaia01:32.050+0.6647301.6Medium / Medium1:33.120+1.15%5Medium
10Joan Mir01:32.147+0.7617299.1Soft / Medium——
11Fabio Di Giannantonio01:32.158+0.7727301.6Soft / Medium——
12Brad Binder01:32.161+0.7757300.0Soft / Medium——
13Jorge Martin01:32.178+0.7927298.3Medium / Medium——
14Johann Zarco01:32.238+0.8527300.0Medium / Medium——
15Fermin Aldeguer01:32.275+0.8897301.6Soft / Medium——
16Enea Bastianini01:32.330+0.9447302.5Soft / Medium——
17Augusto Fernandez01:32.405+1.0197296.7Soft / Medium——
18Raul Fernandez01:32.440+1.0546296.7Medium / Medium——
19Ai Ogura01:32.536+1.1507297.5Soft / Soft——
20Alex Rins01:32.598+1.2127295.8Soft / Medium1:33.074+1.10%4Medium
21Franco Morbidelli01:32.717+1.3316300.0Soft / Medium——
22Maverick Viñales01:33.423+2.0372291.1Soft / Medium——
23Somkiat Chantra01:33.973+2.5877293.4Soft / Soft1:36.547+4.87%5Soft
Race · 14.09
Pos.RiderTime / gapPointsLapsTyres (front / rear)Long-run pacePace gapn runRun rear
1Marc Marquez41:20.8982527Medium / Medium1:31.609—21Medium
2Marco Bezzecchi+0.5682027Medium / Medium1:31.623+0.02%22Medium
3Alex Marquez+7.7341627Medium / Medium1:31.887+0.30%22Medium
4Franco Morbidelli+10.3791327Medium / Medium1:31.994+0.42%22Medium
5Fabio Di Giannantonio+11.3301127Medium / Medium1:32.097+0.53%21Medium
6Fermin Aldeguer+16.0691027Medium / Medium1:32.190+0.63%22Medium
7Luca Marini+17.965927Medium / Medium1:32.196+0.64%24Medium
8Fabio Quartararo+20.964827Medium / Medium1:32.286+0.74%22Medium
9Miguel Oliveira+21.565727Medium / Medium1:32.409+0.87%23Medium
10Brad Binder+23.109627Medium / Medium1:32.430+0.90%21Medium
11Raul Fernandez+24.592527Medium / Medium1:32.419+0.88%23Medium
12Jack Miller+27.492427Medium / Medium1:32.508+0.98%23Medium
13Jorge Martin+29.937327Medium / Medium1:32.476+0.95%22Medium
14Augusto Fernandez+61.504227Medium / Medium1:33.568+2.14%25Medium
15Somkiat Chantra+61.932127Medium / Soft1:33.849+2.45%22Soft
16Johann Zarco+0.000026Medium / Medium1:33.172+1.71%21Medium
RetiredAi Ogura02Medium / Soft——
RetiredAlex Rins09Medium / Medium1:32.658+1.15%7Medium
RetiredEnea Bastianini011Medium / Medium1:32.254+0.70%9Medium
RetiredFrancesco Bagnaia08Medium / Medium1:32.103+0.54%6Medium
Out on lap 1Joan Mir00— / ———
RetiredMaverick Viñales04Medium / Medium——
RetiredPedro Acosta07Medium / Medium1:31.873+0.29%5Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.280—+0.553Medium6
Marc Marquez1:31.316+0.036+0.210Medium6
Luca Marini1:31.453*+0.173+0.308Medium4
Fabio Quartararo1:31.683*+0.403+0.275Medium3
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.738*+0.458+0.221Medium4
Pedro Acosta1:31.748*+0.468+0.448Medium3
Maverick Viñales1:31.760*+0.480+0.292Medium3
Alex Marquez1:31.859*+0.579+0.356Medium3
Johann Zarco1:32.262*+0.982+0.344Medium4
Jack Miller1:32.401+1.121+0.105Medium5
Somkiat Chantra1:33.568*+2.288+0.221Medium3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Grid penalties

SessionRiderQualifiedStartsΔReason
SprintJoan Mir12——Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi130%60%74%83%15%1
Alex Marquez222%56%72%86%12%2
Fabio Quartararo315%46%66%85%11%—
Marc Marquez411%40%64%87%8%—
Franco Morbidelli57%29%54%86%8%4
Luca Marini65%23%44%82%10%7
Fabio Di Giannantonio73%14%32%73%15%3
Francesco Bagnaia82%11%28%73%13%13
Pedro Acosta92%7%19%63%14%5
Fermin Aldeguer101%5%14%61%8%6
Jorge Martin111%4%11%56%6%8
Joan Mir120%2%6%36%24%—
Miguel Oliveira131%2%5%34%12%16
Raul Fernandez140%1%4%29%6%9
Ai Ogura150%1%2%23%4%12
Brad Binder160%1%2%14%16%—
Maverick Viñales170%0%1%10%9%15
Alex Rins180%0%1%6%10%17
Johann Zarco190%0%0%4%21%11
Enea Bastianini200%0%1%3%9%10
Jack Miller210%0%0%3%8%14
Augusto Fernandez220%0%0%1%18%18
Somkiat Chantra230%0%0%1%5%19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

RiderGridWinPodiumTop 5Top 10P(DNF)Final
Marco Bezzecchi130%63%76%83%16%2
Alex Marquez227%57%69%75%23%3
Fabio Quartararo315%49%71%85%13%8
Marc Marquez48%32%57%81%16%1
Franco Morbidelli57%31%57%81%16%4
Luca Marini62%16%38%86%8%7
Fabio Di Giannantonio78%32%57%80%17%5
Francesco Bagnaia80%1%5%44%21%—
Pedro Acosta92%10%29%75%18%—
Fermin Aldeguer101%6%19%67%20%6
Jorge Martin110%2%11%58%21%13
Joan Mir120%0%2%28%36%—
Miguel Oliveira130%0%0%16%22%9
Raul Fernandez140%1%5%44%19%11
Ai Ogura150%0%1%27%22%—
Brad Binder160%0%1%30%14%10
Maverick Viñales170%0%0%7%13%—
Alex Rins180%0%0%4%20%—
Johann Zarco190%0%0%8%19%16
Enea Bastianini200%0%1%17%17%—
Jack Miller210%0%0%4%25%12
Augusto Fernandez220%0%0%1%26%14
Somkiat Chantra230%0%0%1%13%15

What the sprint changed

C13b
RiderPodiumΔWin
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio18% → 32%+144% → 8%
Alex Marquez46% → 57%+1118% → 27%
Marco Bezzecchi57% → 63%+627% → 30%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia11% → 1%−103% → 0%
Luca Marini25% → 16%−96% → 2%
Marc Marquez37% → 32%−512% → 8%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Alex Marquez1:31.372—+0.356Soft10
Marco Bezzecchi1:31.420+0.048+0.553Soft11
Fabio Di Giannantonio1:31.474+0.102+0.320Soft11
Franco Morbidelli1:31.475+0.103+0.512Soft10
Pedro Acosta1:31.733+0.361+0.448Soft10
Fermin Aldeguer1:31.787+0.415+0.884Soft10
Luca Marini1:31.919+0.547+0.308Soft11
Jorge Martin1:31.966+0.594+0.457Soft10
Raul Fernandez1:32.025+0.653+0.667Soft11
Enea Bastianini1:32.132+0.760+0.319Soft11
Ai Ogura1:32.258+0.886+0.300Soft10
Brad Binder1:32.274+0.902+0.327Soft7
Johann Zarco1:32.278+0.906+0.344Soft11
Francesco Bagnaia1:32.301+0.929+0.221Soft11
Jack Miller1:32.347+0.975+0.105Soft11
Miguel Oliveira1:32.410+1.038+0.193Soft9
Maverick Viñales1:32.414+1.042+0.292Soft10
Alex Rins1:32.470+1.098+0.217Soft10
Somkiat Chantra1:33.259+1.887+0.221Soft9
Augusto Fernandez1:33.344+1.972+0.437Soft11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

C6
S1 · BezzecchiS2 · M. MarquezS3 · A. MarquezS4 · M. Marquez

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

© OpenStreetMap contributors

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100
Position index
22%
Pole wins
48%
Front row on the podium
0.73
Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

75
Overtakes
1
Lead changes
2 leaders
20/27
Laps led by the winner
Marc Marquez
3.102 s
Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P9 to P1.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marco Bezzecchi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

C1

2024 edition

RiderPaceGapDeg. s/lapRearn
Francesco Bagnaia1:31.969—+0.221Medium23
Marc Marquez1:32.101+0.132+0.210Medium23
Enea Bastianini1:32.278+0.309+0.319Soft22
Jorge Martin1:32.584+0.615+0.457Soft18
Pedro Acosta1:32.719+0.750+0.448Soft18
Maverick Viñales1:32.768+0.799+0.292Soft19
Brad Binder1:32.822+0.853+0.327Medium20
Alex Marquez1:32.828+0.859+0.356Soft24
Marco Bezzecchi1:32.871+0.902+0.553Soft21
Fabio Quartararo1:32.905+0.936+0.275Medium21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

  • 2026Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2025Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2024Marc MarquezDucati
  • 2023Jorge MartinDucati
  • 2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
  • 2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
  • 2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%
YearDNFs%
20267/2133%
20257/2330%
20243/2214%
20234/2317%
20224/2516%
20213/2413%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

RearShareRel. paceDeg. s/lapWinsPodiumsAvg. pos.
Soft73%+1.45%−0.0290111.8
Medium27%+1.29%−0.021125.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.