Round 16 of 22 Aftermath

San Marino Grand Prix 2025

Misano World Circuit Marco Simoncelli San Marino

4.226 m · 27 laps · since 1980

12.09 – 14.09.2025

Aftermath

What happened

The official result against what we predicted, race craft by phase and the start.

Race result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	41:20.898	25
2	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+0.568	20
3	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+7.734	16
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+10.379	13
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+11.330	11
6	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+16.069	10
7	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+17.965	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+20.964	8
9	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+21.565	7
10	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+23.109	6
11	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+24.592	5
12	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+27.492	4
13	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+29.937	3
14	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+61.504	2
15	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+61.932	1
16	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+0.000	0
DNF	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0
DNF	Joan Mir	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	Out on lap 1	0
DNF	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	Retired	0
DNF	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0

Sprint result

Pos.	Rider	Bike	Team	Time / gap	Points
1	Marco Bezzecchi	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	19:52.966	12
2	Alex Marquez	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+1.000	9
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+2.551	7
4	Franco Morbidelli	Ducati	Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team	+3.526	6
5	Pedro Acosta	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	+6.834	5
6	Fermin Aldeguer	Ducati	BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP	+6.960	4
7	Luca Marini	Honda	Honda HRC Castrol	+9.307	3
8	Jorge Martin	Aprilia	Aprilia Racing	+11.027	2
9	Raul Fernandez	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+11.594	1
10	Enea Bastianini	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+12.928	0
11	Johann Zarco	Honda	CASTROL Honda LCR	+15.490	0
12	Ai Ogura	Aprilia	Trackhouse MotoGP Team	+15.600	0
13	Francesco Bagnaia	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	+16.129	0
14	Jack Miller	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+16.727	0
15	Maverick Viñales	KTM	Red Bull KTM Tech3	+16.861	0
16	Miguel Oliveira	Yamaha	Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP	+17.576	0
17	Alex Rins	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	+18.716	0
18	Augusto Fernandez	Yamaha	Yamaha Factory Racing	+27.893	0
19	Somkiat Chantra	Honda	IDEMITSU Honda LCR	+28.333	0
DNF	Brad Binder	KTM	Red Bull KTM Factory Racing	Retired	0
DNF	Fabio Quartararo	Yamaha	Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP Team	Retired	0
DNF	Marc Marquez	Ducati	Ducati Lenovo Team	Retired	0

Forecast vs reality

C14

Forecast	Favourite	Winner	Order (model / grid)	Position error (model / calibrated grid)
Sprint	Marco Bezzecchi · 30% ✓	Marco Bezzecchi · 30% · from P1	0.84 / 0.84	2.6 / 2.6
Race (after the grid)	Marco Bezzecchi · 27%	Marc Marquez · 12% · from P4	0.88 / 0.88	2.1 / 2.1
Race (after the sprint)	Marco Bezzecchi · 30%	Marc Marquez · 8% · from P4	0.86 / 0.88	2.1 / 2.0

Error: average positions off, compared with the calibrated grid (the grid turned into expected positions with a simple regression, no model). If the model does not beat it, its edge over the raw grid is only calibration.

Lap-by-lap positions: race

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Lap-by-lap positions: sprint

Position crossing the line on each lap. The top six are in colour; the rest can be switched on in the legend. When a rider retires, their line ends.

Race pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marc Marquez	1:31.609	—	+0.210	Medium	21
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.623	+0.014	+0.553	Medium	22
Pedro Acosta	1:31.873	+0.264	+0.448	Medium	5
Alex Marquez	1:31.887	+0.278	+0.356	Medium	22
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.994	+0.385	+0.512	Medium	22
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:32.097	+0.488	+0.320	Medium	21
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.103	+0.494	+0.221	Medium	6
Fermin Aldeguer	1:32.190	+0.581	+0.884	Medium	22
Luca Marini	1:32.196	+0.587	+0.308	Medium	24
Enea Bastianini	1:32.254	+0.645	+0.319	Medium	9
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.286	+0.677	+0.275	Medium	22
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.409	+0.800	+0.193	Medium	23
Raul Fernandez	1:32.419	+0.810	+0.667	Medium	23
Brad Binder	1:32.430	+0.821	+0.327	Medium	21
Jorge Martin	1:32.476	+0.867	+0.457	Medium	22
Jack Miller	1:32.508	+0.899	+0.105	Medium	23
Alex Rins	1:32.658	+1.049	+0.217	Medium	7
Johann Zarco	1:33.172	+1.563	+0.344	Medium	21
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.568	+1.959	+0.437	Medium	25
Somkiat Chantra	1:33.849	+2.240	+0.221	Soft	22

Actual race pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre wear, fuel and traffic.

The race in numbers

Race

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

16/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

0.568 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Jack Miller, from P21 to P12.

Longest battle: Marc Marquez vs Marco Bezzecchi (27 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Sprint

Overtakes

Lead changes

1 leaders

13/13

Laps led by the winner

Marco Bezzecchi

1.000 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Enea Bastianini, from P19 to P10.

Longest battle: Fabio Di Giannantonio vs Franco Morbidelli (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Incidents

Session	Time	Rider	What	Detail
Sprint	15:08:36	Fabio Quartararo	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:11:11	Marc Marquez	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Sprint	15:12:24	Fabio Quartararo	Retired	Entered pits and retired
Sprint	15:17:31	Brad Binder	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	13:38:39	Jorge Martin	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue in the sighting lap
Race	13:43:09	Jorge Martin	Pit-lane start	Starting warm up lap from pit lane
Race	14:02:50	Johann Zarco	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:02:50	Joan Mir	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:03:45	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to incorrect start procedure
Race	14:05:22	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to jump start
Race	14:05:28	Alex Rins	Long lap	Double long lap penalty due to jump start
Race	14:06:45	Ai Ogura	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:03	Maverick Viñales	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:09:58	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:10:18	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:10:33	Alex Rins	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 1/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:11:10	Jorge Martin	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:11:20	Augusto Fernandez	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:11:27	Alex Rins	Long lap	Double long lap penalty - 2/2 COMPLETE
Race	14:13:43	Pedro Acosta	Technical problem	Stopped with technical issue
Race	14:15:32	Francesco Bagnaia	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:17:17	Alex Rins	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK
Race	14:20:37	Enea Bastianini	Crash	Crashed out - Rider OK

Race: 11 track-limit warnings.

Sprint: 9 track-limit warnings.

Official race direction log (Session.pdf). Times are local circuit time.

The start

C23

Holeshot: Marco Bezzecchi (started P1).

Rider	Grid	L1	Δ
Enea Bastianini	20	13	+7
Jack Miller	21	18	+3
Marc Marquez	4	2	+2
Luca Marini	6	10	−4
Johann Zarco	19	22	−3
Fabio Quartararo	3	4	−1

Who finished better and worse than the grid suggested

Rider	Grid→Pos.	Beats the grid
Marc Marquez	4→1	+3.8
Jack Miller	21→12	+3.7
Fermin Aldeguer	10→6	+2.6
Johann Zarco	19→16	−1.6
Jorge Martin	11→13	−3.7
Fabio Quartararo	3→8	−3.9

Positions gained (+) or lost (−) versus what the starting position suggests, net of what is normally gained or lost at the start. Finishers only.

The tyre gamble

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Medium	91%	+0.72%	−0.004	1	3	8.1
Soft	9%	+2.45%	−0.013	0	0	15.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.

Race weather

C25

26.8 °C

Air

max 27.4 °C

56%

Humidity

Dry

Rain

3 km/h

Wind

gusts 19 km/h

Open-Meteo data at the circuit location during the race; not the track temperature.

Race weekend

As it happens

Live timing, the grid as it forms and who wins the run to turn one.

The weekend, session by session

FP1 · 12.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Franco Morbidelli	01:31.342	—	17	298.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.591	+0.249	18	295.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.083	+0.14%	5	Medium
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.596	+0.254	20	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:31.957	—	5	Medium
4	Alex Marquez	01:31.600	+0.258	20	297.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.646	+0.75%	6	Medium
5	Marc Marquez	01:31.611	+0.269	21	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.641	+0.74%	9	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:31.613	+0.271	19	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.781	+0.90%	5	Medium
7	Pedro Acosta	01:31.663	+0.321	20	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
8	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.675	+0.333	22	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.033	+0.08%	5	Medium
9	Raul Fernandez	01:31.809	+0.467	19	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.300	+1.46%	10	Medium
10	Jorge Martin	01:31.840	+0.498	18	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.929	+0.587	19	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.748	+0.86%	6	Medium
12	Joan Mir	01:31.978	+0.636	22	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.689	+0.80%	13	Medium
13	Jack Miller	01:32.015	+0.673	19	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.017	+0.675	16	298.3	Soft / Medium	—			—
15	Enea Bastianini	01:32.159	+0.817	19	299.1	Soft / Medium	1:34.826	+3.12%	6	Medium
16	Fermin Aldeguer	01:32.285	+0.943	18	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:33.783	+1.99%	5	Medium
17	Maverick Viñales	01:32.306	+0.964	19	295.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Alex Rins	01:32.471	+1.129	19	295.8	Soft / Medium	—			—
19	Ai Ogura	01:32.509	+1.167	20	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.870	+2.08%	14	Medium
20	Brad Binder	01:32.510	+1.168	23	301.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.291	+1.45%	11	Medium
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.537	+1.195	17	292.6	Soft / Medium	1:33.237	+1.39%	12	Medium
22	Johann Zarco	01:32.924	+1.582	17	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:33.584	+2.242	22	296.7	Soft / Medium	1:35.038	+3.35%	13	Medium

Practice · 12.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:30.480	—	28	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:31.827	+0.28%	10	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.627	+0.147	29	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.574	—	13	Soft
3	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.673	+0.193	22	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.212	+0.70%	6	Soft
4	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.710	+0.230	24	298.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.271	+0.76%	5	Medium
5	Alex Marquez	01:30.752	+0.272	27	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.803	+0.25%	6	Medium
6	Joan Mir	01:30.819	+0.339	24	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.393	+0.89%	10	Soft
7	Luca Marini	01:30.848	+0.368	25	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.968	+0.43%	5	Medium
8	Jorge Martin	01:30.857	+0.377	25	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Pedro Acosta	01:30.889	+0.409	28	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:32.910	+1.46%	6	Medium
10	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.915	+0.435	20	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
11	Johann Zarco	01:31.068	+0.588	24	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.090	+0.610	26	293.4	Medium / Medium	1:31.846	+0.30%	12	Soft
13	Brad Binder	01:31.166	+0.686	24	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.311	+0.81%	12	Soft
14	Maverick Viñales	01:31.249	+0.769	24	294.2	Medium / Soft	—			—
15	Raul Fernandez	01:31.487	+1.007	22	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.878	+0.33%	11	Medium
16	Jack Miller	01:31.500	+1.020	26	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.543	+1.06%	5	Soft
17	Enea Bastianini	01:31.572	+1.092	23	297.5	Medium / Medium	1:32.303	+0.80%	10	Soft
18	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.616	+1.136	27	297.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.196	+0.68%	5	Medium
19	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.678	+1.198	20	289.5	Medium / Soft	1:32.956	+1.51%	9	Soft
20	Alex Rins	01:31.682	+1.202	27	295.8	Medium / Soft	1:32.513	+1.03%	5	Medium
21	Ai Ogura	01:31.688	+1.208	26	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:32.426	+0.93%	11	Medium
22	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.369	+1.889	21	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:32.516	+2.036	23	293.4	Medium / Soft	—			—

FP2 · 13.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.624	—	16	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.280	+0.05%	6	Medium
2	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.914	+0.290	16	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.238	—	4	Soft
3	Luca Marini	01:31.194	+0.570	14	303.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
4	Pedro Acosta	01:31.201	+0.577	14	303.3	Medium / Soft	1:32.039	+0.88%	5	Soft
5	Marc Marquez	01:31.206	+0.582	15	302.5	Medium / Soft	1:31.798	+0.61%	5	Soft
6	Alex Marquez	01:31.236	+0.612	15	300.0	Medium / Soft	1:31.440	+0.22%	6	Soft
7	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.296	+0.672	12	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.807	+0.62%	6	Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:31.344	+0.720	15	300.0	Medium / Soft	—			—
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:31.379	+0.755	14	298.3	Medium / Soft	—			—
10	Fermin Aldeguer	01:31.401	+0.777	11	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:31.974	+0.81%	5	Soft
11	Enea Bastianini	01:31.643	+1.019	15	301.6	Medium / Soft	—			—
12	Raul Fernandez	01:31.761	+1.137	12	296.7	Medium / Soft	1:31.980	+0.81%	5	Soft
13	Jorge Martin	01:31.811	+1.187	11	299.1	Medium / Soft	—			—
14	Ai Ogura	01:31.870	+1.246	12	300.8	Medium / Soft	1:33.052	+1.99%	5	Soft
15	Brad Binder	01:31.944	+1.320	14	297.5	Medium / Soft	—			—
16	Jack Miller	01:31.950	+1.326	12	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:32.466	+1.35%	5	Soft
17	Maverick Viñales	01:32.010	+1.386	13	295.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
18	Alex Rins	01:32.015	+1.391	11	296.7	Medium / Soft	—			—
19	Miguel Oliveira	01:32.030	+1.406	13	299.1	Medium / Soft	1:34.605	+3.69%	5	Soft
20	Johann Zarco	01:32.299	+1.675	14	300.8	Medium / Soft	—			—
21	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.664	+2.040	13	292.6	Medium / Soft	1:33.802	+2.81%	6	Soft
22	Somkiat Chantra	01:32.871	+2.247	9	299.1	Soft / Soft	—			—
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	Soft / Soft	—			—

Q1 · 13.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.481	—	9	295.0	Medium / Soft
2	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.852	+0.371	9	296.7	Medium / Soft
3	Miguel Oliveira	01:30.944	+0.463	8	300.0	Medium / Soft
4	Raul Fernandez	01:30.977	+0.496	9	299.1	Medium / Soft
5	Ai Ogura	01:30.977	+0.496	9	297.5	Medium / Soft
6	Brad Binder	01:31.015	+0.534	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
7	Maverick Viñales	01:31.087	+0.606	7	294.2	Medium / Soft
8	Alex Rins	01:31.244	+0.763	9	298.3	Medium / Soft
9	Johann Zarco	01:31.272	+0.791	8	300.8	Medium / Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	01:31.364	+0.883	7	297.5	Medium / Soft
11	Jack Miller	01:31.377	+0.896	8	296.7	Medium / Soft
12	Augusto Fernandez	01:31.812	+1.331	8	293.4	Medium / Soft
13	Somkiat Chantra	01:32.390	+1.909	8	296.7	Medium / Soft

Q2 · 13.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)
1	Marco Bezzecchi	01:30.134	—	9	300.8	Medium / Soft
2	Alex Marquez	01:30.222	+0.088	9	300.0	Medium / Soft
3	Fabio Quartararo	01:30.228	+0.094	9	295.0	Medium / Soft
4	Marc Marquez	01:30.352	+0.218	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
5	Franco Morbidelli	01:30.383	+0.249	8	299.1	Medium / Soft
6	Luca Marini	01:30.390	+0.256	9	302.5	Medium / Soft
7	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:30.395	+0.261	9	300.8	Medium / Soft
8	Francesco Bagnaia	01:30.414	+0.280	9	300.8	Medium / Soft
9	Pedro Acosta	01:30.486	+0.352	9	300.8	Medium / Soft
10	Fermin Aldeguer	01:30.616	+0.482	5	296.7	Medium / Soft
11	Jorge Martin	01:30.981	+0.847	8	298.3	Medium / Soft
Retired	Joan Mir		—	0	0.0	— / —

Sprint · 13.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marco Bezzecchi	19:52.966	12	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.420	+0.05%	11	Soft
2	Alex Marquez	+1.000	9	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.372	—	10	Soft
3	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+2.551	7	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.474	+0.11%	11	Soft
4	Franco Morbidelli	+3.526	6	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.475	+0.11%	10	Soft
5	Pedro Acosta	+6.834	5	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.733	+0.40%	10	Soft
6	Fermin Aldeguer	+6.960	4	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.787	+0.45%	10	Soft
7	Luca Marini	+9.307	3	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.919	+0.60%	11	Soft
8	Jorge Martin	+11.027	2	13	Medium / Soft	1:31.966	+0.65%	10	Soft
9	Raul Fernandez	+11.594	1	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.025	+0.72%	11	Soft
10	Enea Bastianini	+12.928	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.132	+0.83%	11	Soft
11	Johann Zarco	+15.490	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.278	+0.99%	11	Soft
12	Ai Ogura	+15.600	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.258	+0.97%	10	Soft
13	Francesco Bagnaia	+16.129	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.301	+1.02%	11	Soft
14	Jack Miller	+16.727	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.347	+1.07%	11	Soft
15	Maverick Viñales	+16.861	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.414	+1.14%	10	Soft
16	Miguel Oliveira	+17.576	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.410	+1.14%	9	Soft
17	Alex Rins	+18.716	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:32.470	+1.20%	10	Soft
18	Augusto Fernandez	+27.893	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.344	+2.16%	11	Soft
19	Somkiat Chantra	+28.333	0	13	Medium / Soft	1:33.259	+2.07%	9	Soft
Retired	Brad Binder		0	9	Medium / Soft	1:32.274	+0.99%	7	Soft
Retired	Fabio Quartararo		0	5	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Marc Marquez		0	5	Medium / Soft	—			—

Warm Up · 14.09

Pos.	Rider	Best lap	Gap	Laps	Top km/h	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	01:31.386	—	7	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
2	Marco Bezzecchi	01:31.424	+0.038	7	303.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.063	—	5	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	01:31.460	+0.074	7	300.8	Soft / Medium	1:32.363	+0.33%	5	Medium
4	Fabio Quartararo	01:31.604	+0.218	7	295.0	Medium / Medium	1:32.085	+0.02%	5	Medium
5	Miguel Oliveira	01:31.823	+0.437	7	300.0	Soft / Medium	1:32.314	+0.27%	4	Medium
6	Luca Marini	01:31.836	+0.450	7	302.5	Soft / Medium	1:32.232	+0.18%	4	Medium
7	Jack Miller	01:31.948	+0.562	7	299.1	Medium / Medium	1:34.063	+2.17%	5	Medium
8	Pedro Acosta	01:31.967	+0.581	7	303.3	Soft / Medium	1:32.726	+0.72%	5	Medium
9	Francesco Bagnaia	01:32.050	+0.664	7	301.6	Medium / Medium	1:33.120	+1.15%	5	Medium
10	Joan Mir	01:32.147	+0.761	7	299.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
11	Fabio Di Giannantonio	01:32.158	+0.772	7	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
12	Brad Binder	01:32.161	+0.775	7	300.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
13	Jorge Martin	01:32.178	+0.792	7	298.3	Medium / Medium	—			—
14	Johann Zarco	01:32.238	+0.852	7	300.0	Medium / Medium	—			—
15	Fermin Aldeguer	01:32.275	+0.889	7	301.6	Soft / Medium	—			—
16	Enea Bastianini	01:32.330	+0.944	7	302.5	Soft / Medium	—			—
17	Augusto Fernandez	01:32.405	+1.019	7	296.7	Soft / Medium	—			—
18	Raul Fernandez	01:32.440	+1.054	6	296.7	Medium / Medium	—			—
19	Ai Ogura	01:32.536	+1.150	7	297.5	Soft / Soft	—			—
20	Alex Rins	01:32.598	+1.212	7	295.8	Soft / Medium	1:33.074	+1.10%	4	Medium
21	Franco Morbidelli	01:32.717	+1.331	6	300.0	Soft / Medium	—			—
22	Maverick Viñales	01:33.423	+2.037	2	291.1	Soft / Medium	—			—
23	Somkiat Chantra	01:33.973	+2.587	7	293.4	Soft / Soft	1:36.547	+4.87%	5	Soft

Race · 14.09

Pos.	Rider	Time / gap	Points	Laps	Tyres (front / rear)	Long-run pace	Pace gap	n run	Run rear
1	Marc Marquez	41:20.898	25	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.609	—	21	Medium
2	Marco Bezzecchi	+0.568	20	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.623	+0.02%	22	Medium
3	Alex Marquez	+7.734	16	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.887	+0.30%	22	Medium
4	Franco Morbidelli	+10.379	13	27	Medium / Medium	1:31.994	+0.42%	22	Medium
5	Fabio Di Giannantonio	+11.330	11	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.097	+0.53%	21	Medium
6	Fermin Aldeguer	+16.069	10	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.190	+0.63%	22	Medium
7	Luca Marini	+17.965	9	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.196	+0.64%	24	Medium
8	Fabio Quartararo	+20.964	8	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.286	+0.74%	22	Medium
9	Miguel Oliveira	+21.565	7	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.409	+0.87%	23	Medium
10	Brad Binder	+23.109	6	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.430	+0.90%	21	Medium
11	Raul Fernandez	+24.592	5	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.419	+0.88%	23	Medium
12	Jack Miller	+27.492	4	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.508	+0.98%	23	Medium
13	Jorge Martin	+29.937	3	27	Medium / Medium	1:32.476	+0.95%	22	Medium
14	Augusto Fernandez	+61.504	2	27	Medium / Medium	1:33.568	+2.14%	25	Medium
15	Somkiat Chantra	+61.932	1	27	Medium / Soft	1:33.849	+2.45%	22	Soft
16	Johann Zarco	+0.000	0	26	Medium / Medium	1:33.172	+1.71%	21	Medium
Retired	Ai Ogura		0	2	Medium / Soft	—			—
Retired	Alex Rins		0	9	Medium / Medium	1:32.658	+1.15%	7	Medium
Retired	Enea Bastianini		0	11	Medium / Medium	1:32.254	+0.70%	9	Medium
Retired	Francesco Bagnaia		0	8	Medium / Medium	1:32.103	+0.54%	6	Medium
Out on lap 1	Joan Mir		0	0	— / —	—			—
Retired	Maverick Viñales		0	4	Medium / Medium	—			—
Retired	Pedro Acosta		0	7	Medium / Medium	1:31.873	+0.29%	5	Medium

Official classification of each session (Dorna). Best lap and the tyres used on it: official FIM PDFs. Long-run pace: median of the clean laps in long runs (5 flying laps or more); blank if the rider did none. Every rider runs their own programme and fuel load, so long-run pace only compares within the same session.

Long-run pace in practice

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.280	—	+0.553	Medium	6
Marc Marquez	1:31.316	+0.036	+0.210	Medium	6
Luca Marini	1:31.453*	+0.173	+0.308	Medium	4
Fabio Quartararo	1:31.683*	+0.403	+0.275	Medium	3
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.738*	+0.458	+0.221	Medium	4
Pedro Acosta	1:31.748*	+0.468	+0.448	Medium	3
Maverick Viñales	1:31.760*	+0.480	+0.292	Medium	3
Alex Marquez	1:31.859*	+0.579	+0.356	Medium	3
Johann Zarco	1:32.262*	+0.982	+0.344	Medium	4
Jack Miller	1:32.401	+1.121	+0.105	Medium	5
Somkiat Chantra	1:33.568*	+2.288	+0.221	Medium	3

Estimated practice pace: median of the clean laps on the medium compound used in practice. It is an estimate: every team runs its own programme and fuel load. n = laps used (at least 3). * = only 3 or 4 laps: pace less reliable.

Who will make it to Q2

C21a

Pred.	Rider	P(through)	Actual in Q1
1	Fabio Quartararo	56%	1 ✓
2	Raul Fernandez	43%	4
3	Brad Binder	28%	6
4	Fermin Aldeguer	21%	2 ✓
5	Enea Bastianini	19%	10
6	Maverick Viñales	11%	7
7	Johann Zarco	7%	9
8	Jack Miller	4%	11
9	Ai Ogura	3%	5
10	Alex Rins	3%	8
11	Augusto Fernandez	4%	12
12	Miguel Oliveira	2%	3
13	Somkiat Chantra	1%	13

Forecast after Practice for the riders going to Q1. Two go through. Q1 is fairly predictable, but 55% for the favourite still means a miss almost half the time.

Pole and front row

C21

Pred.	Rider	P(pole)	P(front row)	P(top 6)	Actual in Q2
1	Marco Bezzecchi	38%	66%	88%	1
2	Franco Morbidelli	21%	53%	81%	5
3	Marc Marquez	13%	45%	75%	4
4	Luca Marini	5%	32%	67%	6
5	Alex Marquez	4%	25%	53%	2
6	Francesco Bagnaia	6%	22%	55%	8
7	Pedro Acosta	1%	13%	41%	9
8	Fabio Quartararo	3%	15%	38%	3
9	Fabio Di Giannantonio	3%	8%	31%	7
10	Jorge Martin	2%	8%	25%	11
11	Fermin Aldeguer	2%	9%	28%	10

Forecast after Q1, from Practice and FP2. These are probabilities, not a grid: the favourite takes pole about half the time.

Grid penalties

Session	Rider	Qualified	Starts	Δ	Reason
Sprint	Joan Mir	12	—	—	Not on the official grid (pit-lane start or did not start)

Sprint forecast

C13s

Sprint forecast based on the starting grid.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	30%	60%	74%	83%	15%	1
Alex Marquez	2	22%	56%	72%	86%	12%	2
Fabio Quartararo	3	15%	46%	66%	85%	11%	—
Marc Marquez	4	11%	40%	64%	87%	8%	—
Franco Morbidelli	5	7%	29%	54%	86%	8%	4
Luca Marini	6	5%	23%	44%	82%	10%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	3%	14%	32%	73%	15%	3
Francesco Bagnaia	8	2%	11%	28%	73%	13%	13
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	7%	19%	63%	14%	5
Fermin Aldeguer	10	1%	5%	14%	61%	8%	6
Jorge Martin	11	1%	4%	11%	56%	6%	8
Joan Mir	12	0%	2%	6%	36%	24%	—
Miguel Oliveira	13	1%	2%	5%	34%	12%	16
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	1%	4%	29%	6%	9
Ai Ogura	15	0%	1%	2%	23%	4%	12
Brad Binder	16	0%	1%	2%	14%	16%	—
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	0%	1%	10%	9%	15
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	1%	6%	10%	17
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	0%	4%	21%	11
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	1%	3%	9%	10
Jack Miller	21	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%	14
Augusto Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	18%	18
Somkiat Chantra	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	5%	19

Race forecast

C13

Forecast updated after the sprint: grid plus sprint pace.

Rider	Grid	Win	Podium	Top 5	Top 10	P(DNF)	Final
Marco Bezzecchi	1	30%	63%	76%	83%	16%	2
Alex Marquez	2	27%	57%	69%	75%	23%	3
Fabio Quartararo	3	15%	49%	71%	85%	13%	8
Marc Marquez	4	8%	32%	57%	81%	16%	1
Franco Morbidelli	5	7%	31%	57%	81%	16%	4
Luca Marini	6	2%	16%	38%	86%	8%	7
Fabio Di Giannantonio	7	8%	32%	57%	80%	17%	5
Francesco Bagnaia	8	0%	1%	5%	44%	21%	—
Pedro Acosta	9	2%	10%	29%	75%	18%	—
Fermin Aldeguer	10	1%	6%	19%	67%	20%	6
Jorge Martin	11	0%	2%	11%	58%	21%	13
Joan Mir	12	0%	0%	2%	28%	36%	—
Miguel Oliveira	13	0%	0%	0%	16%	22%	9
Raul Fernandez	14	0%	1%	5%	44%	19%	11
Ai Ogura	15	0%	0%	1%	27%	22%	—
Brad Binder	16	0%	0%	1%	30%	14%	10
Maverick Viñales	17	0%	0%	0%	7%	13%	—
Alex Rins	18	0%	0%	0%	4%	20%	—
Johann Zarco	19	0%	0%	0%	8%	19%	16
Enea Bastianini	20	0%	0%	1%	17%	17%	—
Jack Miller	21	0%	0%	0%	4%	25%	12
Augusto Fernandez	22	0%	0%	0%	1%	26%	14
Somkiat Chantra	23	0%	0%	0%	1%	13%	15

What the sprint changed

C13b

Rider	Podium	Δ	Win
Rising
Fabio Di Giannantonio	18% → 32%	+14	4% → 8%
Alex Marquez	46% → 57%	+11	18% → 27%
Marco Bezzecchi	57% → 63%	+6	27% → 30%
Dropping
Francesco Bagnaia	11% → 1%	−10	3% → 0%
Luca Marini	25% → 16%	−9	6% → 2%
Marc Marquez	37% → 32%	−5	12% → 8%

The sprint is the only weekend data that makes us change our mind: it is real race pace, in traffic, the day before. Since 2023, adding it to the forecast cuts the average error from 2.7 to 2.5 positions.

Sprint pace

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Alex Marquez	1:31.372	—	+0.356	Soft	10
Marco Bezzecchi	1:31.420	+0.048	+0.553	Soft	11
Fabio Di Giannantonio	1:31.474	+0.102	+0.320	Soft	11
Franco Morbidelli	1:31.475	+0.103	+0.512	Soft	10
Pedro Acosta	1:31.733	+0.361	+0.448	Soft	10
Fermin Aldeguer	1:31.787	+0.415	+0.884	Soft	10
Luca Marini	1:31.919	+0.547	+0.308	Soft	11
Jorge Martin	1:31.966	+0.594	+0.457	Soft	10
Raul Fernandez	1:32.025	+0.653	+0.667	Soft	11
Enea Bastianini	1:32.132	+0.760	+0.319	Soft	11
Ai Ogura	1:32.258	+0.886	+0.300	Soft	10
Brad Binder	1:32.274	+0.902	+0.327	Soft	7
Johann Zarco	1:32.278	+0.906	+0.344	Soft	11
Francesco Bagnaia	1:32.301	+0.929	+0.221	Soft	11
Jack Miller	1:32.347	+0.975	+0.105	Soft	11
Miguel Oliveira	1:32.410	+1.038	+0.193	Soft	9
Maverick Viñales	1:32.414	+1.042	+0.292	Soft	10
Alex Rins	1:32.470	+1.098	+0.217	Soft	10
Somkiat Chantra	1:33.259	+1.887	+0.221	Soft	9
Augusto Fernandez	1:33.344	+1.972	+0.437	Soft	11

Actual sprint pace: median of the clean laps, excluding the first lap, cancelled laps and pit laps. n = laps used.

Preview

Before the race

What to expect this weekend: race and qualifying outlook, the weight of the grid and the weather.

Who rules each sector

Data from:

Finish line (approximate) S1 S2 S3 S4 · 4,218 m per lap

Approximate sectors: estimated from the time spent in each sector (typical error 5 to 10% of a lap) until we have the official split points.

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.44%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.44%
S2	Pedro Acosta +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.37%	Jorge Martin +0.47%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi +0.26%	Maverick Viñales +0.42%	Fabio Quartararo +0.53%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.06%	Jorge Martin +0.41%	Jack Miller +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi +0.29%	Marc Marquez +0.32%	Alex Marquez +0.35%
S2	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Alex Marquez +0.31%
S3	Marco Bezzecchi	Fermin Aldeguer +0.48%	Raul Fernandez +0.51%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.27%	Jorge Martin +0.31%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Marco Bezzecchi	Marc Marquez +0.24%	Fabio Quartararo +0.26%
S2	Marc Marquez +0.12%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.14%	Pedro Acosta +0.22%
S3	Alex Marquez +0.10%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.25%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Marc Marquez	Marco Bezzecchi +0.03%	Franco Morbidelli +0.44%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia	Enea Bastianini +0.32%	Fabio Quartararo +0.37%
S2	Jorge Martin +0.22%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.27%	Marc Marquez +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.11%	Jorge Martin +0.24%	Pedro Acosta +0.41%
S4	Marc Marquez	Franco Morbidelli +0.19%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.38%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.21%	Brad Binder +0.39%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%
S2	Jorge Martin	Daniel Pedrosa +0.30%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.30%
S3	Maverick Viñales	Marco Bezzecchi +0.23%	Luca Marini +0.29%
S4	Jorge Martin +0.21%	Marc Marquez +0.23%	Jack Miller +0.47%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Francesco Bagnaia +0.12%	Maverick Viñales +0.17%	Fabio Quartararo +0.27%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.03%	Jack Miller +0.34%	Enea Bastianini +0.55%
S3	Enea Bastianini +0.14%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.26%	Marco Bezzecchi +0.40%
S4	Jack Miller	Johann Zarco +0.40%	Fabio Quartararo +0.58%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Joan Mir +0.36%	Francesco Bagnaia +0.49%
S2	Francesco Bagnaia +0.17%	Jack Miller +0.37%	Enea Bastianini +0.38%
S3	Francesco Bagnaia +0.01%	Fabio Quartararo +0.25%	Alex Rins +0.34%
S4	Aleix Espargaro +0.06%	Jack Miller +0.11%	Marc Marquez +0.18%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Maverick Viñales +0.04%	Franco Morbidelli +0.10%	Fabio Quartararo +0.23%
S2	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Pol Espargaro +0.22%	Miguel Oliveira +0.35%
S3	Fabio Quartararo +0.08%	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Pol Espargaro +0.59%
S4	Jack Miller +0.17%	Miguel Oliveira +0.33%	Johann Zarco +0.34%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.56%	Marc Marquez +0.62%
S2	Marc Marquez	Fabio Quartararo +0.45%	Maverick Viñales +0.53%
S3	Fabio Quartararo	Maverick Viñales +0.40%	Valentino Rossi +0.52%
S4	Marc Marquez +0.02%	Pol Espargaro +0.07%	Maverick Viñales +0.11%

Sector	1	2	3
S1	Andrea Dovizioso +0.13%	Cal Crutchlow +0.17%	Marc Marquez +0.32%
S2	Jorge Lorenzo	Andrea Dovizioso +0.22%	Maverick Viñales +0.54%
S3	Andrea Dovizioso +0.18%	Cal Crutchlow +0.44%	Marc Marquez +0.45%
S4	Andrea Dovizioso +0.15%	Jorge Lorenzo +0.19%	Jack Miller +0.20%

Fastest per sector: 2025

Median gap to the fastest rider in each sector within each session, across all seasons at this circuit; active riders only. The name on the layout is the sector leader. Sector split points on the map are approximate.

A track for grid position, or an open one?

C15

An open track: the grid decides less here and there are more comebacks.

29/100

Position index

22%

Pole wins

48%

Front row on the podium

0.73

Grid ↔ result

When two teammates disagree between pace and grid, pace wins 13% of the time (between 2% and 47%; 8 cases).

Descriptive, over 9 races (2018–2026). 100 = the track where the grid matters most; 0 = the most open. Within a team, practice pace tells who will finish ahead 7 times in 10, but when the faster teammate qualifies behind, they finish behind 6 times in 10: grid position weighs more than pace.

How they arrive in the standings

#	Rider	Points	Gap
1	Marc Marquez	487	—
2	Alex Marquez	305	−182
3	Francesco Bagnaia	237	−250
4	Marco Bezzecchi	197	−290
5	Pedro Acosta	183	−304
6	Fabio Di Giannantonio	161	−326

Full championship →

The last race here in numbers

2024 edition

Overtakes

Lead changes

2 leaders

20/27

Laps led by the winner

Marc Marquez

3.102 s

Closest finish

Comeback of the day: Marc Marquez, from P9 to P1.

Longest battle: Fabio Quartararo vs Marco Bezzecchi (13 laps).

Overtakes are counted at the finish line: moves undone within the same lap are not seen. It is a measure of movement, not an official statistic.

Race pace at the last edition

2024 edition

Rider	Pace	Gap	Deg. s/lap	Rear	n
Francesco Bagnaia	1:31.969	—	+0.221	Medium	23
Marc Marquez	1:32.101	+0.132	+0.210	Medium	23
Enea Bastianini	1:32.278	+0.309	+0.319	Soft	22
Jorge Martin	1:32.584	+0.615	+0.457	Soft	18
Pedro Acosta	1:32.719	+0.750	+0.448	Soft	18
Maverick Viñales	1:32.768	+0.799	+0.292	Soft	19
Brad Binder	1:32.822	+0.853	+0.327	Medium	20
Alex Marquez	1:32.828	+0.859	+0.356	Soft	24
Marco Bezzecchi	1:32.871	+0.902	+0.553	Soft	21
Fabio Quartararo	1:32.905	+0.936	+0.275	Medium	21

Net race pace: median of clean laps, excluding lap 1, cancelled laps and pit laps. Degradation mixes tyre, fuel and traffic.

Winners here

2026Marc MarquezDucati
2025Marc MarquezDucati
2024Marc MarquezDucati
2023Jorge MartinDucati
2022Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2021Francesco BagnaiaDucati
2020Franco MorbidelliYamaha
2019Marc MarquezHonda

Attrition here

Average here 19% · global 19%

Year	DNFs	%
2026	7/21	33%
2025	7/23	30%
2024	3/22	14%
2023	4/23	17%
2022	4/25	16%
2021	3/24	13%

Tyres at the last edition

2024 edition

Rear	Share	Rel. pace	Deg. s/lap	Wins	Podiums	Avg. pos.
Soft	73%	+1.45%	−0.029	0	1	11.8
Medium	27%	+1.29%	−0.021	1	2	5.0

Rear compound in the race. Pace is relative to the best of the session; degradation includes fuel and traffic, so only compare within the same race.